NBA - 701 Atlanta Hawks @ 702 Washington Wizards
Play #1
Nene Hilario was a late scratch on the Wizards' game at Indiana and as Washington lacks any depth for his position, they got crushed. Jan Vesely was the player who replaced Nene Hilario in the starting lineup and he didn't even attempt a shot in 20 minutes! With such a poor offensive player on the floor and against an elite defensive team like Indiana, they didn't stand a chance! This was the third game where Nene Hilario didn't play and the outcome of those games were the Wizards losing all three contests! It seems like he won't play tonight as well and on a back to back spot, I believe Washington's offense will struggle, as without Nene Hilario and Bradley Beal plus a poor bench turns the Wizards' offense into a poor unit.
Curiously Atlanta is also struggling with depth. Kyle Korver remains out due to injury, Louis Williams doesn't play back to back games and the Hawks had to spend a lot of energy last night to make a comeback win against Dallas. They were down by 17 points, but their defense made a big effort in the second half by holding Dallas to just 34 points! Offensively, Atlanta struggled on half court sets against Dallas. Kyle Korver is a big absence for them and he helps the team in spreading the floor and so, Atlanta ended yesterday's game with 3-15 3pts. The key factor for their win offensively was their transition game with 23 fast break points scored against Dallas's slow footed guards. We have in here two teams with no depth, with some injury concerns and while playing their fourth game in five nights. Therefore, I expect both offenses to struggle and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Chicago Bulls @ 704 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #2
Cleveland is coming from another loss last night, this time at Boston, where they couldn't reach the 20-assists mark once again. In fact, they had just 13 assists! The starting lineup that opened the game scored just two points on the first five minutes of the game! Curiously, the Cavaliers were effective on their favorite play (pick and roll ball handler), where they had 9-19 FG for a nice 0.96 PPP, something that shows how the struggle on everything else! On the other hand, their defense struggled a bit against against Boston, especially in the perimeter.
The Cavaliers will play a back to back game this time at home against Chicago, who after a debacle at LA against the Clippers had nice defensive games at Utah and at Detroit, with defensive ratings of 94.3 and 90.1! First of all, it's important to check how Chicago's pick and roll defense is in order to see what Cleveland might be able to do on offense. The truth is that the Bulls are #3 in the league on pick and roll defense with just 0.68 PPP allowed! Therefore, Cleveland's offense will struggle in here, like they struggled on their game at Chicago earlier in the season, where they scored just 81 points, while shooting 7-24 FG and 0.57 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays!
Chicago is coming from a nice win at Detroit, where their frontcourt dominated the Pistons' frontcourt! Taj Gibson had his best game of the season so far and the truth is that Cleveland's interior defense has been regressing. Andrew Bynum is very far from his best and he has zero chemistry with Tristan Thompson, who is also struggling with just 1-6, 1-6 and 1-8 FG on the team's last three games. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Chicago tonight and so, I'll be taking the Bulls in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Chicago Bulls (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 705 Brooklyn Nets @ 706 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #3
Brooklyn had absolutely no chance last night at Houston. First of all, Brooklyn has been struggling on pick and roll ball handling defense where they are dead last in the league, while their transition defense is also poor due to their lack of foot speed that also causes them problems on closing out the shooters. Therefore, Houston took advantage of that to torch them apart with 5-6 FG (3-4 3pts) on pick and roll ball handler plays, 14 fast break points with 4-7 FG on transition and 19-32 3pts with a great 15-28 FG on spot up plays! Kevin Garnett didn't play yesterday, but he should play tonight, while Brook Lopez returned yesterday but played only 21 minutes, so he should be fine for tonight as well.
The Nets will now play at Memphis and I expect them to have some rest on defense tonight, as Memphis's offense lacks the characteristics to crush Brooklyn like Houston did last night. Memphis's outside shooting is poor and very inconsistent. This is why they are just #29 on spot ups. The Grizzlies have been adopting a grind out style lately and so, their transition game is also gone, even though they actually scored 18 fast break points on their last game. The Grizzlies' offense without Marc Gasol needs some time to adjust. They managed a nice performance at Boston due to a great 25-31 FT and some dominance down low against Boston's poor interior defense. This won't happen tonight against Brooklyn with Brook Lopez and Kevin Garnett back in the lineup together for the first time in a while. Therefore, I believe the Nets will be competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Brooklyn Nets (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 707 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 708 Dallas Mavericks
Plays #4 & 5
Dallas is coming from a loss at Atlanta last night, where they seem to have run out of energy during the second half. Jose Calderon got injured and they settled for jump shots that simply didn't enter the basket down the stretch. They weren't aggressive with just 9 FT attempts during the second half and just 2 FT on the game's last nine minutes! Now on a back to back spot against a rested team, I believe Dallas won't be able to have the proper energy to be competitive tonight.
Minnesota may be 1-4 on their last five games, but those losses were against the Clippers, Houston, Indiana and Denver! It seems like the Wolves took the free days to make some adjustments after these losses:
“We just went through some things to try to get back to the basics” Rick Adelman said on Friday. “We showed ’em film, and went through it on the court. We’ll see if it carries over.”
For the Wolves to stop their losing streak, their effort and defense need to improve! This is why they focused on defense during yesterday's practice.
“Our defense was terrible Wednesday” point guard Ricky Rubio said. “We have to play harder. I mean, we know we’re not good defenders one-on-one. But we can be a good defense as a team. We showed that in our first few games. We have to help each other out. We’re not talking.”
Minnesota has been crushing the boards on these games and these are good news for them against an undersized team like Dallas. Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic will crush Dallas's frontcourt, but the key should be in the backcourt where Minnesota's defense has been struggling, especially on transition due to too many gambles. However, Dallas won't be a very tough opponent on this area without Jose Calderon and with Monta Ellis being banged up as well. Minnesota has a clear spot edge for tonight and so, I believe that they will bounce back tonight against a tired and depleted Dallas team to get the win tonight. I believe Minnesota's win will come due to a good effort on defense, while Dallas's offense will lack energy to be effective, so I'll be taking the Under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Minnesota Timberwolves ML @ -135 / 1.74 on 5Dimes
NBA - 709 Houston Rockets @ 710 San Antonio Spurs
Play #6
This is a back to back spot for both teams, as San Antonio easily won at Orlando last night, while Houston easily crushed Brooklyn at home. Due to this blowout win over the Nets, nobody from the Rockets played over 30 minutes, while the Spurs' starters didn't play more than 25 minutes yesterday! Still, both teams impressed last night as both benches played really well.
Unlike the Nets, San Antonio's defense is an elite unit on both pick and roll ball handler (#3 in the league) and transition defense (#1). Their problem has been with spot up plays (#25), but they have been much better lately, as they are actually #1 in the league on 3pts defense over their last 10 games with just 29.4% 3pts allowed! Therefore, I believe Houston's offense will struggle tonight with Jeremy Lin out and James Harden still far from being at 100%.
On the other hand, Houston's defense has been clearly improving lately. Since their loss at Dallas that they have been averaging a 99.4 defensive rating over their last four games. Therefore, I believe this game won't be the super high scoring game that some people are expecting, as both the Spurs and the Rockets are currently defending quite well. So, I see nice value in taking the Under in here tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 713 Utah Jazz @ 714 Phoenix Suns
Play #7
Utah's defense is definitely horrible with their current starting lineup. The Suns absolutely crushed them, with Trey Burke being completely outplayed by Goran Dragic and it wasn't necessary a lot for that to happen: a single pick and roll or a post up and Burke is lot on defense, similar to Damian Lillard's terrible defense all over the past season. The problem is that Burke isn't the team's only poor defender. Marvin Williams is also always lost on defense, the same happening with Richard Jefferson. Phoenix shot just 8-25 3pts last night, but most of their misses were on wide open opportunities! When Eric Bledsoe entered the court, his opponent was John Lucas and a banged up Bledsoe crushed him like it was nothing. On a slow paced game, Phoenix was able to score 31+31+33 points on the first three quarters of last night's game!
Utah managed to be competitive because they attacked well down low, ending the game with 60 points in the paint and a nice 20-30 FG at the rim and 10-19 FG from 4-9 feet! On the other hand, their outside shooting was poor once again with 5-20 3pts. On tonight's game, Phoenix will once again have the edge on offense, as Utah's horrible defensive errors can't be corrected on one night! So, the key in here will be Utah's offense. They have been struggling this season offensively when they can't generate points down low, as their perimeter shooting is poor, but they were able to pound the Suns down low yesterday with a season high 60 points in the paint. Phoenix won last night's game so easily that they won't adjust anything tonight and so, Utah will have a good offensive edge down low once again tonight. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 195.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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