NBA - 711 Utah Jazz @ 712 Miami Heat
Plays #2 & 4
Plays #2 & 4
***ADDED PLAY***
UTA defense is ranked #28 vs. Pick n rolls ball handler plays, #27 in spot up plays, #22 in cuts & #24 in transition! In all these areas, the Heat is an elite team offensively. Marvin Williams and/or Richard Jefferson will “try” to defend LeBron James, good luck with that! POR not a long time ago scored 130 points against the Jazz behind a 17-23 shooting performance behind the line, I’m not saying the Heat will put these kind of numbers, but when an elite shooting team faces a terrible perimeter defensive team, these things happens quite often.
The good news is that the Jazz are improved offensively vs. early on the season. Their P&R game is way better now w/ rookie Trey Burke and the overall improvement of Hayward. I expect them to have some edge on the offensive glass and D. Favors could have a nice offensive game as well.
My fair line for this contest is 202/204 points and actually, we are one point short of having a potential Double Dime Play w/ Over but for now I’m taking the Over as my Single Dime Play. I also expect Miami to completely blow out the Jazz tonight and so, I'll be taking the Heat in here on a Single Dime Play as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
***ADDED PLAY***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Miami Heat (-12) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 707 Los Angeles Lakers @ 708 Atlanta Hawks
Play #5
The Lakers finally won a game since Kobe Bryant came back. The LA team struggled defensively to stop Kemba Walker as expected, as Kobe is too slow to stop quick PG's and Kemba dominated with 10-13 FG, 2-2 FT, 24 points and 8 assists. Charlotte was efficient on everything excluding post ups due to Al Jefferson's subpar game on that area and spot ups, where the Bobcats keep struggling on outside shooting with 2-13 3pts! The Lakers' offense keeps being far from their best on A/TO ratio and they had a 19/15 ratio against the Bobcats.
Atlanta managed to lose at NY against the Knicks, even though they shot 60.6% FG and 15-32 (47%) 3pts! This was due to the fact that they were clearly outrebounded by the Knicks, as Atlanta grabbed just 45.6% of the rebounds and committed a ridiculous number of 27 turnovers, while the Knicks committed just 11. The Hawks led by an aggressive Jeff Teague will have a tremendous edge on offense tonight. They will run a ton of pick and rolls to worn Kobe out and to take advantage of the Lakers' poor defense on this kind of play since Kobe came back. When Teague has good games, Atlanta is a really good team as his ability to drive and kick will open up the opposing defense for Atlanta, a team that has great mid/long range shooters in Korver, Millsap and Horford. Also Pau Gasol is too slow to stop the mobile Al Horford, who should dominate tonight.
The Lakers' offense is also still far from its best and Atlanta's poor interior defense won't be exposed tonight as the Lakers are a jump shooting team. This is an excellent matchup for Atlanta and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Atlanta Hawks (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 715 San Antonio Spurs @ 716 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #6
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This is a super bad spot for both teams. The Clippers are returning road after a 7-game road trip and they are returning home with just 1-day of rest between games, while having to travel from Washington DC to Los Angeles! They are currently shorthanded and even Jamal Crawford was forced to start against the Wizards, with the backcourt being formed by Dudley, Crawford and Paul. San Antonio's spot isn't easier with this game being their 5th in 7 days. It seems like Tiago Splitter is coming back tonight and with him on the floor, the Spurs' defense is even better! With the Clippers struggling on their perimeter shooting, Popovich will certainly use a game plan focused on Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. I heavily doubt that Paul will have a similar performance tonight to the one he had against Washington with 11-14 FG, 5-7 3pts, 11-11 FT, 38 assists and 12 assists!
On the other side, the Clippers' defense is starting to show more consistency with a nice 96.9 defensive rating over their last six games! With Crawford starting, the Clippers get more offense and less defense, however I doubt that Doc Rivers will start him again tonight, as that would create a massive bench edge for the Spurs in here. Both teams are seeing their defenses being underrated due to their great offenses, but on this poor physical spot for both teams, I expect this game to turn into a defensive battle. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 715/716 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 701 Detroit Pistons @ 702 Indiana Pacers
Play #1
POR’ tired legs was quite evident as they couldn’t hit their outside shots, they ended the game w/ 7-26 3pts so the Pistons were able to build a nice lead, because their edge on the post was tremendous (as expected!). DET scored 68 points in the paint while 65% of their shots were from less than 9feet! With Josh Smith having a huge game on the post, the Pistons finished the game w/ nice 12-21 FG, 1.12 PPP in post up plays. Unfortunately, their key players logged major minutes:
Greg Monroe, 39
Josh Smith, 46
Andre Drummond, 44
Brandon Jennings, 45
Is not going to be easy for DET to have a decent game @IND tonight and tired legs won’t be THE major factor.
DET is going from having a pretty favorable matchup for their offense vs. poor interior POR defense to have to face the BEST interior defensive team in the league! We can expect a natural offensive letdown from them because w/ their inside game limited, the Pistons aren’t a good jump shooting team.
However, note that the Pistons are ranked #1 post up defense in the league! David West & Roy Hibbert will have to work hard in order to have efficient offensive games. Naturally, the Pacers are going to dominate on the perimeter but they are a bit inconsistent as well. This 193-points line is a bit overrated in my opinion as we should be dealing w/ 190-points line, therefore I’m taking the Under as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Philadelphia 76ers @ 704 Brooklyn Nets
Play #3
Play #3
With Brook Lopez on the court, the Nets are near to unstoppable down low. Tonight he will face Spencer Hawes, so we could expect him to dominate and have efficient offensive numbers. The 76ers defense will have to collapse defensively to slow down Lopez, and this will open the floor for the Nets perimeter players. PHI is a terrible defensive team; their rebounding has been declining as of late so we should expect a nice offensive outcome from the Nets.
The key factor of this contest is related with the Nets (bad) perimeter defense. The Nets have been a good defensive team protecting the rim (they are top10 team by allowing 58.5% FG at the rim) but their defensive rotation has been subpar (that’s the problem of having old and slow players). The good news is that the 76ers isn't a good jump shooting team, L10 games they are shooting only 33% behind the line and they are ranked just #25 in spot up plays. PHI will have to attack the rim to generate easy points but BKN’s size and good rim defense will favorable for the Nets so we have a (rare) situation where the Nets will domination offensively and they won’t be exposed defensively on the perimeter. It’s easy now to understand why I like them to win by Double Digits points tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Brooklyn Nets (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment