NBA - 713 Utah Jazz @ 714 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #3
Utah is coming from a nice win at Charlotte. They have been alternating between decent and terrible defensive performances, but the trend is quite evident: they are getting crushed by good shooting teams, as the Jazz's defense is #27 on pick and roll ball handler defense and dead last on spot up defense. This is why they allowed 130 points at Portland, 117 points at Miami and 118 points at Atlanta on this road trip.
However, Utah will be saved from that tonight, as Memphis's outside shooting is outright poor. Mike Conley returned at NY against the Knicks and struggled with 4-18 FG. James Johnson is now the team's starting SF and the truth is that this lineup doesn't offer any danger from the outside. Therefore, Utah's defense will pack the paint tonight. The Jazz have a decent interior defense and Derrick Favors will be a tough matchup for Zach Randolph.
Utah's offense has been better lately with Trey Burke at the PG position and with better spacing with Marvin Williams at the PF position. Memphis's defensive decline this season has been caused by poor perimeter defense, as they are #28 on pick and roll defense! Utah's offense relies on pick and rolls, so they should have a good edge on offense tonight. Considering everything, I believe that the Jazz have a good spot to be super competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 Utah Jazz (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 715 Toronto Raptors @ 716 San Antonio Spurs
Plays #4 & 5
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
San Antonio is coming from a home loss against Oklahoma City, where they had their worst defensive quarter of the season by allowing 40 points in the second quarter. Tony Parker returned to the lineup with 23 points after missing two games with a shin injury and he believes that the Spurs need to regroup tonight and on their Christmas game against Houston:
"We'll just regroup and we'll play better on Monday and (then) get ready for the big one on Christmas Day." Tony Parker said.
Kawhi Leonard missed the game against the Thunder due to a dental procedure and San Antonio had no chance also thanks to Tiago Splitter being currently out of form. Considering Splitter's problems and without their best perimeter defender against an explosive team like Oklahoma City, the Spurs had no chance. Things will be different tonight and I expect the Spurs to bounce back in here.
Toronto continues with their traditional poor A/TO ratios, even though they are being more competitive lately. Now against San Antonio's disciplined defense, they will struggle especially due to their tired legs after a huge effort on their game at Oklahoma City last night. Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas will also struggle tonight against San Antonio's good interior defense and the Raptors as a team will also struggle on offense, as they put a lot of focus on the pick and roll game, an area where San Antonio's defense is an elite unit.
I believe Toronto's offense will heavily struggle tonight, while San Antonio's offense will also have some issues, as they aren't currently at their best. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play! I also expect the Spurs to bounce back and get an easy blowout win tonight, so I'll be taking them in here as well on a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 715/716 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 San Antonio Spurs (-11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 717 Golden State Warriors @ 718 Denver Nuggets
Play #6
After a really nice span of good performances, Denver is back into not convincing me one bit. Their rebounding has been subpar, their outside shooting has been poor and Ty Lawson being banged up isn't helping them one bit as well. Golden State's defense got a mega boost with Andre Iguodala coming back from injury. Their rebounding has been great lately, while their interior defense has been good as well by allowing just 34 points in the paint per game over their last five contests. Kenneth Faried won't play tonight, so Denver's inside game will be limited and with their poor outside shooting, I expect Denver's offense to struggle tonight.
On the other hand, Denver's perimeter defense continues to struggle like it happened last season and Golden State with their excellent outside shooting will make the difference tonight to get them an excellent road win tonight. I'm taking the Warriors in here on the money line.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Golden State Warriors ML @ -125 / 1.80 on Bookmaker
NBA - 719 Los Angeles Lakers @ 720 Phoenix Suns
Play #7
The Lakers are currently shorthanded and involved in a complete confusion in the rotations. Without Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Steve Blake and Jordan Farmar, the Lakers are now using players at the PG who have no play making skills and that's resulting in a high number of turnovers. They had 19 against Minnesota and 24 at Golden State on their last game. As you can imagine, committing a bunch of turnovers against a team that has Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic in the back court is a huge no-no!
As usual, Phoenix's transition game has been amazing, while their pick and roll game keeps also being super effective as usual. Now against a Lakers team that pretty much no available guards, the LA team will heavily struggle against Phoenix's offense. On the other hand, the Suns' interior defense is struggling and they allowed an average of 56 points in the paint over their last three games. However, the Lakers are a jump shooting team, so they won't explore that. Besides the huge matchup edge, I believe the Lakers will be also thinking about their Christmas game against Miami, so I believe Phoenix won't have problems in getting a double digits win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 720 Phoenix Suns (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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NBA - 707 Atlanta Hawks @ 708 Miami Heat
Play #1
Play #1
Earlier this season, Miami had no problems on beating Atlanta at home. The Heat used their high pressure defense on Jeff Teague and that destroyed Atlanta's offense that self-destroyed with 24 turnovers! However, note that the team's second best ball handler Lou Williams was out, just like Paul Millsap. Therefore, Atlanta's spread offense didn't have some key pieces that they need to function properly. Atlanta is now a much healthier and confident team and I believe they will be more competitive this time around.
Both teams are coming from games where they used their good offenses to crush lowly teams. They are very confident and so, I expect this game to be a good one. However, I believe that this game means more to Atlanta than it does to Miami. The Hawks will be fired up to try to get revenge over their poor showing at Miami earlier in the season, while Miami is possibly already thinking about their Christmas game at LA against the Lakers. Therefore, I believe this will be a close game and so, I'll be taking Atlanta plus the points tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Atlanta Hawks (+8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Milwaukee Bucks @ 704 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #2
This will be the third game between these two teams this season, with the first two being huge blowout wins by the Bobcats. Charlotte has been showing their solid defense as usual, but they are struggling on offense. They had two good offensive games against Detroit and Toronto due to good individual performances. Kemba Walker has been playing well, but the team as a whole is struggling on offense with just 18, 19 and 16 assists on their last three games. Besides the low assist rates, they are also struggling on rebounds lately. Their offense is based on a bunch of pick and rolls with a huge volume of 26.2% and 26.5% on their last two games! On the other hand, their spot ups and transitions couldn't be less effective and this is holding them down on offense.
After a big slump, Milwaukee is now being more competitive with three competitive performance against the NY Knicks, Cleveland and Philadelphia. Their perimeter defense continues to struggle and they allowed 10, 17, 11 and 10 treys to their opponents on their last four games, for a combined of 48-116 (41%) 3pts! The good news for the Bucks is that Charlotte is a poor team on 3pts shooting and so, they won't explore that tonight. On the first two games between these two teams, Charlotte easily won both games due to being effective on pick and rolls, while Al Jefferson crushed the Bucks front court formed at the time by Zaza Pachulia and Ersan Ilyasova with 8-15 FG and 11-18 FG performance.
Milwaukee's offense is also improving with Brandon Knight at the PG position. O.J. Mayo is now coming off the bench, while the team as a whole is rebounding better as well. Milwaukee has nothing to do with the team that got crushed twice by Charlotte earlier in the season and so, I'll be taking them tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Milwaukee Bucks (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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