Elche @ Osasuna
Game Time: Friday, 3:00 PM EST
Today's game won't be a great one, as we are in front of two teams currently at the bottom of the standings and when that happens, there's a lot of nerves and anxiety, something that turns games like this in quite tough ones to watch. Osasuna is dead last in the league with four losses in four games, while Elche is a bit better with three draws and one loss in the first four rounds of the league.
Elche had a game last Monday against Valladolid, so they are coming from this game with less one day of rest than Osasuna. Sure that Elche will play a wait-and-see game today by waiting for an error from Osasuna to then try to score a goal out of nowhere. The key in here is that Elche doesn't have a strong offense that can take advantage of Osasuna's defensive issues. Elche has just scored three goals so far in the league, with two of them coming in the same game against Almeria: a penalty kick plus a goal while Almeria had just 10 men on the field.
I believe Osasuna's line is too high in here, as they are ignoring that Elche doesn't have a better than them. I remember that Almeria was a -110 favorite (52% chances to win) against them two weeks ago, while Osasuna is at +104 (49% chances to win) for today. I rate Osasuna to be as good as Almeria (just two points in four games), so we are getting good value on Osasuna for tonight, on a home game where they will be fired up. Therefore, I'll take advantage of having a line that helps me in protecting half of my stake from a draw and take Osasuna in here.
Osasuna is coming from a 1-2 loss at Getafe. They were able to create multiple scoring chances with 11 shots (six on target), but defensively they struggled and that was why they lost that game by conceding a lot of space behind their defense. For a team that is currently in the last place, Osasuna is actually showing some good offense by being #10 in the league in build up dangerous plays with 8.3/game and #6 in dangerous set pieces with 4.5/games. They dominated the ball possession in all their four games, something that puts them in an impressive #4 with an average of 59.6% ball possession. Their new coach Javi Gracia had his debut game with the team last week and today, he will make his home debut.
Elche had a game last Monday against Valladolid, so they are coming from this game with less one day of rest than Osasuna. Sure that Elche will play a wait-and-see game today by waiting for an error from Osasuna to then try to score a goal out of nowhere. The key in here is that Elche doesn't have a strong offense that can take advantage of Osasuna's defensive issues. Elche has just scored three goals so far in the league, with two of them coming in the same game against Almeria: a penalty kick plus a goal while Almeria had just 10 men on the field.
I believe Osasuna's line is too high in here, as they are ignoring that Elche doesn't have a better than them. I remember that Almeria was a -110 favorite (52% chances to win) against them two weeks ago, while Osasuna is at +104 (49% chances to win) for today. I rate Osasuna to be as good as Almeria (just two points in four games), so we are getting good value on Osasuna for tonight, on a home game where they will be fired up. Therefore, I'll take advantage of having a line that helps me in protecting half of my stake from a draw and take Osasuna in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Osasuna (-0,25) @ -138 / 1.72 on Pinnacle OR @ -139 / 1.72 on 5Dimes
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