NFL Free Premium Play 09/22 San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans

San Diego  at Tennessee

NFL Week 3 - 391 San Diego Chargers @ 392 Tennessee Titans Projected Line: San Diego pk line San Diego is coming from an excellent win at Philadelphia last week, even though they were on a poor physical spot, after playing at home a Monday Night Football game. The Chargers ripped apart the Eagles's defense with 126 rushing yards and 419 passing yards! San Diego killed a lot of time to stop Philadelphia from getting the ball as much as possible and this is why they had the ball for 40:17! When they had the ball, Philadelphia's offense was effective, but San Diego eventually won the game due to an excellent offensive game. Tennessee is coming from a really close loss at Houston, where they almost won the game in lucky fashion. The Titans' defense looked good once again, with their pass defense limiting Matt Schaub to just 26/48 C/ATT (54% pass completion), 298 yards and two interceptions! Tennessee's offense was similar to what they had done back in Week 1 against the Steelers: avoid pressure on Locker and use some heavy running. Locker struggled at times with a 17/30 C/ATT for just 148 yards, but he avoided turnovers quite well. Houston dominated the game stats wise, but Tennessee almost won the game due to being turnover-free the whole game. For today, we have a nice matchup between a good offensive team (with poor defense) versus a decent (so far) defensive team with a poor offense. However, I really believe that San Diego's offensive quality is more legit than Tennessee's defensive quality. San Diego's offense has been great this season. The OL has been better this season, but the offensive success of the Chargers comes from the fact that Philip Rivers isn't taking a lot of risky shots, preferring to pass the ball to the RB's Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead, besides the TE Antonio Gates. Tennessee's defense played well on the first two games of the season, but Pittsburgh's offense is completely depleted, while against Houston, Matt Schaub burned himself by throwing too much risky attempting. San Diego has a more conservative playbook this season and I expect them to expose Titans's overrated pass defense in here. On the other side, San Diego's defense allowed 31 and 30 points on their first two games of the season, but I believe that they are underrated. Houston scored just 14 points on the first three quarters of the MNF game, until the Chargers had a complete meltdown that included an interception return TD on a Rivers' pass. At Philadelphia, San Diego's defense struggled by not being able to stop Philadelphia's running game and also allowing a lot of big passing plays. The good news for the Chargers is that Tennessee's running game isn't as good as Philadelphia's, with Chris Johnson coming from 25+25 carries on the first two games of the season, while Tennessee's passing game is subpar, doesn't take a lot of risks, so we won't see Locker trying to expose the Chargers's secondary issues with big bombs. I don't believe Tennessee is a better team than San Diego at all. The Titans's defense is being quite overrated in here and I expect San Diego's effective short passing game to expose them today. On the other side, the Titans' offense isn't good enough to expose some of the issues that San Diego's defense showed against Houston and Philadelphia, two much better offensive teams than Tennessee. Therefore, looking at the current line, I'll be taking San Diego in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 391 San Diego Chargers (+3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline