NFL Premium Play 09/19: Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

NFL Week 3 - 301 Kansas City Chiefs @ 302 Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Line: 47 points

Philadelphia's hype that they got after beating Washington in week 1 is now gone after losing at home against San Diego. They surprised the Redskins on Week 1 with an unpredictable offense, but Washington's turnovers and poor defense helped them a lot. However, Philadelphia's defense has been so poor that San Diego torched them with Philip Rivers having a big game with 36/47 C/ATT 419 yds and 3/0 TD/INT! The Eagles had the ball just for 20 minutes against the Chargers, they were effective on offense, but that wasn't enough.

Kansas City is coming from a close win against Dallas at home. Alex Smith had a lot of action against the Cowboys with 21/36 C/ATT 223 yds for a poor 6.2 Y/P ratio. He also ran with the football quite a lot with 57 rushing yards for a nice 7.1 Y/C. But it's important to note that the Chiefs' offense was solid with zero turnovers, but unimpressive in terms of effectiveness. On defense, Kansas City was quite impressive by sacking Tony Romo three times, while completely shutting down the Cowboys' running game. They just couldn't stop Dez Bryant. 

Tonight's game will see the return of Andy Reid to Philadelphia. I believe Kansas City's gameplan will be similar to what San Diego did last week. They'll try to control the tempo of the game, having as much ball possession as possible and if there is a team that can do this quite well is Kansas City due to their short passing game and their quality running game led by Jamaal Charles. Philadelphia's defense hasn't been impressive one bit on their first two games, but San Diego's offense has been great so far this season and Kansas City lacks the same offensive weapons that the Chargers have, especially in terms of the passing game.

Assuming that Kansas City is successful in controlling the tempo of tonight's game, as I expect to happen, Philadelphia will need to super effective on offense. They managed to do that against Washington and San Diego, however it's important to note that the Redskins got crushed at Green Bay last week, while San Diego had also struggled against Houston's offense back in week 1. Now against a much better defense as the Chiefs' defense, I believe Philadelphia's offense will have a much tougher matchup than in the first two weeks of the season.

I believe Kansas City will waste as much time as possible today to avoid getting pounded by Philadelphia's super fast paced offense. They have in Jamaal Charles an excellent weapon to do exactly that. Considering the Chiefs' gameplan for today and their good defense, I believe Philadelphia's offense will struggle for the first time this season and so, I expect a surprising low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in tonight's game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 301/302 Under 51 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada