Monday, September 23, 2013

Soccer Premium Card 09/22

Soccer English Premier League - Manchester United @ Manchester City
This is obviously a huge game between the two top clubs from Manchester that are also the two most recent English champions. Both teams have new coaches this season and this is probably why they haven't been impressive early on the season. Manchester City is getting about 45.5% chances to win this game versus 28% chances from Manchester United, something that I can't agree with as I expect this game to be quite close. Both teams have recently overcome some weaknesses and they are now in decent conditions to play good soccer. City's defense hasn't been impressing me early in the season, but their best defender in Vincent Kompany returned to the lineup mid week to save them.

On the other hand, Manchester United showed a lot of problems on building up offensive plays with their midfield unit not giving a lot of support in the process. When Moyes started Anderson against Crystal Palace, things were disastrous! The good news if that Fellaini started mid week for the Champions and the improvement was huge, with the United playing with a higher tempo on offense, while showing more intensity as well. Wayne Rooney is finally focused in playing and not in finding a new team, something that has already resulted in an amazing performance against Leverkusen last Tuesday. Suddenly, a team that had problems in creating scoring chances had 16 total shots against the underrated Leverkusen!

Both teams will use a similar style with two strong center midfielders and with one positional striker plus a mobile one: Yaya Toure + Fernandinho vs Michael Carrick + Fellaini; Edin Dzeko + Sergio Aguero vs Robin van Persie + Wayne Rooney! David Silva is questionable for this game and even if he plays, he won't be physically at 100% in a huge blow for City, who don't have any quality replacement for a healthy Silva. I expect this game to be a great one to watch, with two confident teams that are coming from a nice wins on the Champions League. The odds aren't reflecting the tight contest that I expect this game to be and so, I'll be taking Manchester United in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Manchester United (+0,5) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline



Soccer English Premier League - Tottenham Hotspur @ Cardiff City
Tottenham did a great job in signing some players, as they knew that Gareth Bale would leave the club. They have been looking solid on defense, they have a cold blooded striker, their midfield line was strong, but they had a deadly weakness: they didn't have a quality attacking midfielder who could give the team some much needed creativity. This was visible when they lost by 0-1 at Arsenal, in a game where they didn't have any scoring chances, even though they dominated the ball possession. 

Things changed in the last day of the trade deadline, when Tottenham signed Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela. While the latter will need some extra time to adapt to a new culture, Eriksen is already making an instant impact on the team, with Tottenham having now an offensive playmaker capable of making a good connection between the midfield line and the forwards. Thanks to that, Tottenham dominated Norwich with 69% of ball possession and 23 total shots, with seven of them being on target! The new dynamic turns Tottenham into one of the EPL's top teams and they aren't getting the respect from the linemakers on this game that they deserved, as we are getting a ML line of around -110 for them in here: a mere 52% chances to win!

Cardiff City is on a nice run of three games without losing, where they defeated Manchester City at home, drew Everton 0-0 on the road and then drew again on the road against Hull City. In all these three games, Cardiff had a defensive approach as expected, but their opponents still had a high volume of shots with 16, 13 and 18! Cardiff's approach on this game will help Tottenham, who dominated the ball possession in their first games in the league but struggled to create chances. Things are now different due to Eriksen's arrival, so I expect Tottenham to pick up the win in here, especially when their coach Andre Villas Boas rotated well the lineup in their Europa League mid week game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Tottenham Hotspur (-0,5) @ -109 / 1.92 on Pinnacle OR @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker 



Soccer Spanish Liga BBVA - Villareal @ Celta Vigo

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***


If we exclude the top teams Barcelona and Real Madrid, together with the impressive Atletico Madrid as well, very few teams that can match the fluid offense that both Villareal and Celta Vigo are showing on this early season. Therefore, the matchup between these two teams will likely become a high scoring contest! Unsurprisingly, both teams are in the league top 10 in all offensive stats: shots, shots on target, success pass rate% and ball possession.

Villareal is coming from a 2-2 draw against Real Madrid, where they could have won, considering their scoring chances during the game. In fact, the man of the match was Real's goalkeeper Diego Lopez, who was amazing and made some excellent saves. Villareal's great offense has been unstoppable this season and they have scored 3, 2, 3 and 2 goals on their first four league games! Meanwhile, Celta Vigo led by Luis Enrique (a super offensive minded coach) has also a super positive attitude. They went to inaugurate Bilbao's new stadium and lost the game, even though they gave a lot of trouble to the home team by scoring two goals. Even though Celta drew their first two home games, they are a super offensive minded team, with 57% and 65% ball possessions in those two games, while having 15 and 17 shots!

It's almost ridiculous that we have in today's card a game between Valencia and Sevilla with a totals line of 2.75, while this super wide open game is treated with a 2.5 line! My fair line in here is 3 goals and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.5 @ -114 / 1.88 on Pinnacle OR @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

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