Monday, September 16, 2013

NFL Premium Play 09/15: Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Week 2 - 209 Dallas Cowboys @ 210 Kansas City Chiefs

Projected Line: 43 points


Dallas is coming from a big win over the NY Giants in last week's SNF, where they scored 36 points, however it's important to note that their playbook was more conservative than usual. 

“I think we were patient.” offensive coordinator Bill Callahan said. “I think that the way that the defense played in the game, we played complementary football.”

With the Cowboys playing with a lead essentially the entire game, the Dallas passing game was pretty much a dink-and-dunk operation all night. Only two of Romo’s 49 throws traveled at least 20 yards, neither of which he completed. By comparison, Romo averaged 4.6 such downfield shots per game last season. From the 36 points scored, 14 of them were scored on two defensive touchdowns. The only bad news the Cowboys got from this game was that Tony Romo was hit on his ribs and he won't be at 100% for this contest, something that can be concerning, as Kansas City has two big OLBs in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Therefore, I believe Dallas will once again use a conservative playbook today, while Kansas City's defense should do a reasonable job in here against a banged up Romo and an unimpressive running game.

On the other hand, Dallas's pass defense was quite decent against the Giants, if we exclude a horribly blown coverage where Victor Cruz had a 70 yds TD reception. Their run defense took care of a struggling Giants' running game, but their problems were on the secondary, with Morris Claiborne being banged up and with Eli Manning constantly pounding them with big passing plays. Things will be quite different today. First of all, Alex Smith is one of the most conservative QB's in the league and we won't see him throwing long passes all day long like Eli. Then, Kansas City has in Jamaal Charles their main offensive strength. So, I don't expect Dallas's secondary weaknesses to be very exposed today. I believe this game will be a contest between two quite conservative teams, turning this game into a low scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 209/210 Under 46,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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