NFL Week 3 - 101 San Francisco 49ers @ 102 St Louis Rams
Projected Line: San Francisco by 6 points
The Rams have been a completely one-dimensional team on offense this season: 38/24, 55/18 and 48/12 pass/rush on their first three games of the season! I believe the biggest reason why they are throwing the football so much is because they aren't going anywhere with their running game with a -50.2%, -17.5% and -38.7% rushing DVOA on these three games! Anyway, the truth is that it isn't hard to stop the Rams' offense right now. San Francisco stopped Andrew Luck well last season, but they were surprisingly crushed by the Colts' running game led by Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson. The Rams' running game is nowhere near this dangerous and so, I believe San Francisco's defense will bounce back and shut down the Rams' offense today, even though the 49ers are currently dealing with some injuries on defense right now.
San Francisco's offense has been struggling this season and considering they had a short rest between games, there could be some fatigue problems for them tonight. However, I believe Coach Jim Harbaugh is going to simplify things for Colin Kaepernick, with more read option and more running the ball. The other good news for the 49ers offense tonight is that Frank Gore had just 11 carries against Indianapolis on Sunday and so, he should be fresh to pound the Rams tonight. I also expect Vernon Davis to play tonight, something that is absolutely huge for San Francisco tonight, as even if he doesn't make a lot of plays, he will still command two defenders in man coverage at all times, giving space to the other receivers to get the ball. I expect a strong bounce back for the 49ers in here, in a good matchup for both their offense and defense and so, I'll be taking San Francisco tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101 San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
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