English Premier League Round 4 Free Premium Play: West Ham United @ Southampton

English Premier League Round 4 Free Premium Play:

                

West Ham United @ Southampton

Game Time: Sunday, 11:00 AM EST

At first sight, the current odds giving Southampton a ML line of -120 (55% chances to win) might seem a bit overrated for a team that has just four points in the league, as many as West Ham, however on this particular matchup, I actually think the difference between these two teams is even bigger than the odds are currently showing. 

West Ham under Sam Allardyce are playing on his traditional kick n rush style. They are averaging just 44.7% ball possession in the league, even though they are yet to face a top teams this season. The problem is that West Ham has so many injuries on offense that they are almost inoffensive right now. Andy Carroll is likely to be out until the new year, their most creative player Joe Cole is also out, same with Stuart Downing and George McCartney! Therefore, West Ham tried to find a striker in the trade deadline and they signed the free agent Mladen Petric, but he isn't match fit yet and so, he is out for today's game as well. So, no surprise that they had just 1 shot on target on their last two games! Things won't be a lot different today and I expect them to heavily struggle on offense once again. 

On the other side, Southampton will be one of the teams that will continue improving as the season goes by, as they'll need some time to gel together after so many signings. Still, Rickie Lambert and Osvaldo give the team an offensive quality that West Ham can only dream about right now. So, I expect West Ham to take a quite defensive approach today and only try to score on a counter move or set piece, but that shouldn't be a problem for Southampton, as the team under Mauricio Pochettino has become a "continental" team, who likes to take control of the ball (53%, 67% and 58% ball possession on the first three games), so they won't have problems in controlling the game and getting some scoring chances. Southampton won't have problems in having the ball on their attacking midfield, with Osvaldo and Lambert creating chances for them to score. This will contrast a lot with the non-existent West Ham offense that will also face an underrated Southampton defense that has allowed only two goals in three games.

Therefore, I give Southampton a 60% chances of winning today, something that gives us enough value to take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Southampton ML @ -120 / 1.83 on Pinnacle OR 5Dimes (same line)