NFL Week 3 - 393 Cleveland Browns @ 394 Minnesota Vikings
Projected Line: 37 points
Minnesota allowed 34 and 31 points on their first two games of the season! But, efficiency wise, they weren't that bad on defense. Their overall defensive DVOA was +16.8% and +0.90%, so it wasn't definitely a total disaster! The problem is that Christian Ponder and the rest of the Vikings's offense has been helping their opponents a lot with four turnovers at Detroit and three turnovers at Chicago, allowing their opponents to attack them with good field position thanks to that! The Vikings's rush defense has been good as usual, but the truth is that both Detroit and Chicago didn't try to run a lot against them. Their pass defense was subpar and allowed some big passing plays to both Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler.
However, things will be easier for Minnesota's defense today. Brandon Weeden was a disaster on the first two games of the season and he is now out with a thumb injury. Brian Hoyer will start for the Browns today and I don't believe things will get better for Cleveland today, especially when their OL has been horrible with a total of 11 sacks allowed in two games! Cleveland's RB Trent Richardson was traded to Indianapolis during the past week, so the newcomer Willis McGahee will be the team's main RB for today. There are too many problems for the Browns' offense today for them to be effective in here, even though Minnesota's defense wasn't great in the first two weeks of the season.
On the other side, Cleveland's defense was great in both games against Miami and at Baltimore, with their rushing defense being amazing with -69.6% and -31.4% DVOA! Miami averaged 0.9 Y/C in 23 carries, while Baltimore averaged 2.8 Y/C in 36 carries! It seems like the Browns are ready to limit Adrian Peterson today! After all the poor decisions that Christian Ponder took in the first two games of the season, I expect Minnesota's offense to be more conservative in here by using the running game even more, something that Cleveland's offense will probably do as well, as they will have Brian Hoyer under center today. Therefore, I expect a really low scoring contest in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this game.
On the other side, Cleveland's defense was great in both games against Miami and at Baltimore, with their rushing defense being amazing with -69.6% and -31.4% DVOA! Miami averaged 0.9 Y/C in 23 carries, while Baltimore averaged 2.8 Y/C in 36 carries! It seems like the Browns are ready to limit Adrian Peterson today! After all the poor decisions that Christian Ponder took in the first two games of the season, I expect Minnesota's offense to be more conservative in here by using the running game even more, something that Cleveland's offense will probably do as well, as they will have Brian Hoyer under center today. Therefore, I expect a really low scoring contest in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 393/394 Under 41 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 3 - 401 Arizona Cardinals @ 402 New Orleans Saints
Projected Line: 52 points
It might seems like New Orleans is coming from two subpar offensive performances considering their level, but they have good excuses for that. The first game was at home against Atlanta, their main rival, on Sean Payton's comeback game, so everything was a bit off sync, with a lot of nerves as well going around in the field. Then, the Saints played another divisional game, this time at Tampa Bay, in a game where they could never gain their usual offensive flow, as the game was interrupted 70 minutes and the wild blew at an incredible speed throughout the whole game. Things should be much more normal for New Orleans today and they should take advantage of that to pound Arizona's pass defense that seems to be regressing a lot in comparison to the past season, where their pass defense was great.
On the other side, Arizona's offense is now a much improved unit in comparison to last season thanks to their new QB Carson Palmer. He has been connecting some big passes to several receivers and he doesn't seem to be dependent from Larry Fitzgerald at all. New Orleans's defense looked really good on their first two games, but they were helped by the circumstances that both games were played that I've mentioned before. Arizona's offense is now a decent unit and even though the Saints's defense seems to be improved from last season, they are still prone to allow some big plays here and there that will allow the Cardinals to pick up some points in here. I expect New Orleans to finally be involved in a shootout this season today and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 401/402 Over 48,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 3 - 403 Detroit Lions @ 404 Washington Redskins
Projected Line: Washington by 3 points
Washington is desperate to avoid falling into a 0-3 hole and they are home dogs in here against a super overrated Detroit team that defeated the sloppy Vikings in week 1 and then lost at Arizona last week. The Redskins's defense was historically bad on their first two games this season, but I believe that they have good conditions to make a nice bounce back today. Let's remember that Philadelphia's offense had a huge surprise factor going on for them at Week 1, while last week they faced the Packers, who have probably the best offense in the league right now. Things should be much easier for Washington's defense today. The Redskins struggled against quick receivers on their first two games, but the good news for them is that Reggie Bush in unlikely to play today and he would be a massive threat to Washington's defense today.
On the other side, Washington's offense on these two games has been horrible at the start of the games and great at the end. Of course that they faced preventive defenses down the stretch, but at least they showed some effectiveness on offense. Alfred Morris finally woke up at Green Bay with 107 rushing yards in 13 carries and Detroit's run defense wasn't good last season with 4.5 Y/C allowed. Detroit struggled on defense against Minnesota's poor offense and then they allowed Arizona's offense to score 10+6+9 points on the last three quarters of the game. Washington's offense is much better than Minnesota's and Arizona's, so I believe that they will put Detroit's defense into deep problems today. Even though Washington isn't playing great right now, I believe that they are still playing good enough to beat the overrated Lions today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 404 Washington Redskins (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 3 - 417 Chicago Bears @ 418 Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Line: Pittsburgh by 2 points
Pittsburgh's offense is in deep crisis right now. Their running game has no talent for years now, while their OL wasn't good and only got worse without Maurkice Pouncey. So, it's all up to Ben Roethlisberger to produce some miracles once in a while for the Steelers to produce some offense on their games. The "good news" for Pittsburgh is that Roethlisberger seems to be an expert in producing this kind of miracles and last week at Cincinnati, he connected some big plays, including a 43 yds pass to Sanders, 31 yds pass to Cotchery, 18 yds pass to Brown and 34 yds to Paulson! On defense, the Steelers have been quite competent. They allowed a few big plays to Andy Dalton last Monday, but their run defense has been quite solid.
On the other hand, Chicago is coming from a 31-30 win, where they were quite sloppy and survived due to an amazing game by Devin Hester, who produced 249 returning yards on kick returns. Defensively, Chicago has been excellent, with a good run defense and a decent pass defense (+7.9% and +6.7% pass defense on their first two games). The difference between these two defenses is that Chicago has been forcing turnovers, while Pittsburgh is yet to force a single one this season.
I don't expect Chicago's running game to do anything positive tonight. Matt Forte has been reasonable this season, but Pittsburgh's rush defense has been great this season. So, the key in here will be in what the Bears's passing game will be able to do against the Steelers. Jay Cutler has been protected better this season (just one sack in two games), with Bennett and Marshall as his trustee receivers. The problem is that Chicago has been having some unexplainable moments on offense this season, where they turn the ball over in unusual circumstances. I believe Pittsburgh has a better spot in here and with their defense having another huge performance, I believe they will catch Chicago on a letdown mode after a sloppy divisional win, allowing the Steelers to pick up a tough win tonight. I'm taking Pittsburgh in here.
NOTE: The public is currently on Chicago and so, it's natural that the line will move towards the Bears. We currently have a +3 line at Bovada, so try to line shop a bit until you get this key +3 points line!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 418 Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bovada
NFL Week 3 - 401 Arizona Cardinals @ 402 New Orleans Saints
NFL Week 3 - 413 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 414 Seattle Seahawks
***2-Team 6 Points Teaser***
As stated above in the NO/ARI Over Play, I expect New Orleans to have a big offensive game today and as much as Arizona's offense is improved this season, they lack the offensive power to outplay the Saints in a shootout.
Even though Jacksonville has been struggling a lot and it's super banged up right now, I believe that they will keep this game minimally competitive. Seattle is coming from a massive win over San Francisco last Sunday and this is a huge letdown spot for them on their easiest game of the season. They will keep the Jaguars hang around in the scoreboard for a while, besides the fact that if Seattle picks up a 14-21 points lead, they will eventually substitute their key players and pretty much allow Jacksonville to score some points down the stretch with some sloppy play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 402 New Orleans Saints (-1) x 413 Jacksonville Jaguars (+25) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline
NFL Week 3 - 409 Atlanta Falcons @ 410 Miami Dolphins
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Atlanta signed Steven Jackson for this season in order to avoid being such a one-dimensional team on offense this season, but with Jackson's injury, Atlanta's running game is back at being close to non-existent, something that will be exposed in here against a traditionally very good run defense of the Dolphins. To make things even worse for the Falcons' offense, both Roddy White and Julio Jones were limited throughout the week in practice and even though they should play today, they will be physically limited against a good Miami defense. The Dolphins should also be able to put pressure on Matt Ryan today and with no running game, a banged up receiving corps and with their QB getting pressured by Miami's DL, I believe Atlanta's offense will heavily struggle today.
On the other side, Miami's offense is also dealing with some important injuries. QB Ryan Tannehill has been dealing with a shoulder injury, while their #1 WR Mike Wallace is questionable for today with a groin injury. The Dolphins' OL seems to be still adjusting to be without Jake Long and Tannehill has been sacked four times by Cleveland and five times by Indianapolis! Atlanta's pass rush isn't traditionally good, but looking at the issues that Miami's OL has been having on this early season, I expect the Falcons to be able to put some pressure on Tannehill today as well. Miami's running game has been average this season and I don't expect them to be very effective on this area today, even though they should be effective enough to grab a couple of rushing first downs in order to kill off some time to keep Atlanta's offense off the field a lot today. I expect a classic low scoring game today and so, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 409/410 Under 45 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Atlanta signed Steven Jackson for this season in order to avoid being such a one-dimensional team on offense this season, but with Jackson's injury, Atlanta's running game is back at being close to non-existent, something that will be exposed in here against a traditionally very good run defense of the Dolphins. To make things even worse for the Falcons' offense, both Roddy White and Julio Jones were limited throughout the week in practice and even though they should play today, they will be physically limited against a good Miami defense. The Dolphins should also be able to put pressure on Matt Ryan today and with no running game, a banged up receiving corps and with their QB getting pressured by Miami's DL, I believe Atlanta's offense will heavily struggle today.
On the other side, Miami's offense is also dealing with some important injuries. QB Ryan Tannehill has been dealing with a shoulder injury, while their #1 WR Mike Wallace is questionable for today with a groin injury. The Dolphins' OL seems to be still adjusting to be without Jake Long and Tannehill has been sacked four times by Cleveland and five times by Indianapolis! Atlanta's pass rush isn't traditionally good, but looking at the issues that Miami's OL has been having on this early season, I expect the Falcons to be able to put some pressure on Tannehill today as well. Miami's running game has been average this season and I don't expect them to be very effective on this area today, even though they should be effective enough to grab a couple of rushing first downs in order to kill off some time to keep Atlanta's offense off the field a lot today. I expect a classic low scoring game today and so, I'll be taking the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 409/410 Under 45 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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