Cardiff City @ Hull City
Game Time: Saturday, 10:00 AM EST
Despite losing 2-0 at Manchester City in the previous round, Hull City played pretty well and if it wasn't for their inability to capitalize on their second chances and they would have reached half time with the lead on the scoreboard. Man City eventually won the game due to their superior individual talent, when Alvaro Negredo scored the first goal in a nice build up play. Hull City surprised me with their defensive discipline and excellent work rate. Their players often doubled up City's main threats in Yaya Toure and David Silva, while Sergio Aguero also didn't have any kind of space at the back as well. But Hull wasn't content in simply sitting back and defend in numbers. Every time they had the chance to build quick transitions, they were extremely dangerous and exposed City's defensive issues who were really missing Vincent Kompany. They lost the game, but they gained some well deserved confidence for the upcoming games.
"I couldn't have wished for a better performance. I thought we were terrific all afternoon and had probably more chances than the last four or five visits I've had here, so you have to take them." - Hull City's Manager Steve Bruce said.
Meanwhile, things were the same old same old story for Cardiff City. Despite playing against an inferior class opponent than Man City, Cardiff had a similar approach against Everton at home: lay back in defense, defend with numbers and try to score a goal in a set piece play. The overall numbers weren't pretty for Cardiff: they ended the game with just 37% ball possession and they had only four shots in the whole game, with only one being on target! However, they were able to stop Everton's offensive waves and grabbed one point because of that.
For this contest, Cardiff's duo of David Marshall and Steven Caulker got injured on International duties and they won't play in here. I expect Cardiff to have a conservative mindset in here, so they won't likely create many scoring chances because they don't put a lot of men on the front anyway. On the other side, Hull City is lacking a complete striker (Yannick Sagbo will serve the second of his 3-games suspension) and Sone Aluko is doubtful for this contest. But Hull is still being a nice surprise at this start of the season, as they played relatively well on their two losses against Chelsea and Manchester City, while they defeated Norwich despite playing with just 10 men for most of the game.
Additional Information:
For this game, we have the draw at +225, which means that the oddmakers are giving a 30% chance for this game to end it on a draw, while I have it at around 40%. There isn't a lot that can be said more about Cardiff City. Their defensive ability and work rate on defense has been remarkable. On their first three contests of the season, they allowed just 4, 5 and 3 shots on target, while putting all 11 men behind their own midfield. I don't think this mindset will considerably change on this game, as they will be playing on the road and they will allow Hull City to control the ball, as Hull will play at home and therefore, they have more responsibility in attacking. Hull City surprised on their last few games, but their offense was lacking superior talent to convert their chances. Hull City will be again without suspended striker Yannick Sagbo while deadline-day signing Gedo has yet to receive his visa, so Danny Grahman will most likely be their starting striker in here and these aren't good news for Hull's offense.
Both teams came from the Championship (English's second division) this season and so, they know each other quite well. I expect both teams to lack some offensive power in here, so I believe this will be a quite tactic game, where we definitely have a lot of value on the draw, as both teams will be too afraid of losing this game to actually try to win it. Therefore, I'll be taking both the draw and the Under in here. Split the wager!
Pick: 1 unit on DRAW @ +225 / 3.25 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on Under 2.25 @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
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