CSKA Moscow @ Bayern Munich
Game Time: Tuesday, 2:45 PM EST
This totals line is the biggest one in today's game and it's in my opinion completely inflated, as it's taking in consideration the offensive level that Bayern showed last season with 15 goals scored in the six games of the group stage and not their current level.
Bayern Munich under Pep Guardiola is still trying to find its identity and this process might still take a while. They're trying to introduce Guardiola's famous "Tiki Taka", but they haven't been effective so far. They scored "just" nine goals on their first five games in the German Bundesliga, while showcasing some of the boring style that Barcelona had shown under Guardiola as well. Bayern has also several injured midfielders and that doesn't help them one bit, but bottom line Bayern isn't currently the same offensive threat to their opponents that they were last season. The good news for the German team is that their defense has been phenomenal with just two goals allowed so far in the Bundesliga. The fact that they have a very high ball possession percentage helps them, as it prevents their opponents from having the ball to try scoring chances.
The German team will be facing CSKA Moscow tonight, who has its game based on a solid defense led by world class goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev. CSKA is already leading the Russian league once again, but they have just 12 goals scored in eight games (the worst mark of the league's Top 7!). They compensate that lack of offensive production with an excellent defense, with just six goals allowed. I have no doubt that CSKA will put all their 11 men behind the ball today, however they are a comfortable team on this kind of tactic. Their offense will be weaker than usual, as their best player Alan Dzagoev will be out of today's game and so, I don't expect CSKA to have a lot of scoring chances today.
Therefore, my projected totals line for this game would be 2.5/2.75 goals, but due to Bayern's great offensive production last season, we have this overrated line today. So, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 3,25 @ -114 / 1.88 on Pinnacle OR -116 / 1.86 on 5Dimes
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