English Premier League Round 4 Game Preview:
Manchester City @ Stoke City
Game Time: Saturday, 10:00 AM EST
After presenting the best soccer in the first round of the league (4-0 win vs Newcastle), Manchester City disappointed on their last two games by losing at Cardiff at 2-3 and winning unconvincingly against Hull City by 2-0 on the last round. Their offensive line has been quite passive at times, but it's especially on defense where they've struggled the most. Their team captain Vincent Kompany is by far their best defensive player, but he didn't play the last two games and without him, Man City struggled on the center of their defense as Matija Nastasic or Javi Garcia are far from his level at that position. Unfortunately for Manchester City, Kompany will be once again out for this contest and their latest acquisition Martin Demichelis is injured as well, so Nastasic "will have" to play and that doesn't inspire me a lot of confidence on the City's defense for this contest.
On the other side, Stoke City is coming from two nice wins on their last two games after losing their inaugural game at Liverpool, where they missed a penalty kick right at the end of the game that would have given them a 1-1 tie. Stoke's manager Mark Hughes is trying to get his team to play in a more European style in contrast to their usual "kick n rush" style that they used on the last few years. Stoke City was super busy at the trade deadline, as Marko Arnautovic, Oussama Assaidi and Stephen Ireland joined the team.
The books are giving Manchester City a 60% chance to win and I think that's the right line in here. Yes, they are a "superior" team, but their defensive problems without Kompany are a real issue, as Cardiff City showed back in Round 2. Stoke City created good scoring chances in all their three games so far, with 6, 5 and 5 shots on target. Therefore, my lean in here is the over 2.5 goals, as I see Stoke taking advantage of City's poor defense, while Man City's offense will certainly produce as they always seem to perform, as they scored 4, 2 and 2 goals on their first three games in the league so far.
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