The sportsbooks are giving Arsenal a 46/50% winning chance for today's game, but I think Arsenal is actually quite overrated in today's London derby. Sure that they have a great head to head against Tottenham lately, with two 5-2 wins on their last two home games against them, but Arsenal just can't sign anybody on this off-season, while Tottenham seems to be stronger than ever, even without Gareth Bale. Arsenal played a midweek game for the Champions League, where they used their "A squad" to beat Fenerbahçe 2-0. However, Lukas Poloski suffered a severe injury during that game, while Aaron Ramsey and Jack Wilshere also suffered from minor injuries. Ramsey and Wilshere should play today, but they won't be at 100%.
On the other side, Tottenham made several signs over the last few days, but today's lineup should be similar to the one that they presented on their first two rounds of the EPL. Their midfield is a very physical unit and this might be the key for today's game. Etienne Capoue, Paulinho and Moussa Dembele form a very powerful midfield that they can also create quick transition plays, even though they aren't an elite unit in terms of offensive skills. However, this will still be a problem for Arsenal's midfield today, who struggles in getting back into defense quickly. Aston Villa crushed them with that back in Round 1 and Tottenham's gameplan for today will be similar: allow Arsenal to have the ball, but then take a advantage of that to pound Arsenal's poor defensive positioning with very quick transitions.
Tottenham's defense has been very solid early on the season and I expect them to do a good job today against Arsenal's offense, who won't have a lot of quality options for today's game. Therefore, I expect Tottenham to leave today's game with at least one point and so, I'll be taking them on the spread.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Tottenham Hotspur (+0,5) @ -121 / 1.83 on Pinnacle OR @ -124 / 1.81 on 5Dimes
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