English Premier League Round 4 Free Premium Play: Manchester City @ Stoke City

         

Manchester City @ Stoke City

Game Time: Saturday, 10:00 AM EST

After presenting the best soccer in the first round of the league (4-0 win vs Newcastle), Manchester City disappointed on their last two games by losing at Cardiff at 2-3 and winning unconvincingly against Hull City by 2-0 on the last round. Their offensive line has been quite passive at times, but it's especially on defense where they've struggled the most. Their team captain Vincent Kompany is by far their best defensive player, but he didn't play the last two games and without him, Man City struggled on the center of their defense as Matija Nastasic or Javi Garcia are far from his level at that position. Unfortunately for Manchester City, Kompany will be once again out for this contest and their latest acquisition Martin Demichelis is injured as well, so Nastasic "will have" to play and that doesn't inspire me a lot of confidence on the City's defense for this contest. 

On the other side, Stoke City is coming from two nice wins on their last two games after losing their inaugural game at Liverpool, where they missed a penalty kick right at the end of the game that would have given them a 1-1 tie. Stoke's manager Mark Hughes is trying to get his team to play in a more European style in contrast to their usual "kick n rush" style that they used on the last few years. Stoke City was super busy at the trade deadline, as Marko Arnautovic, Oussama Assaidi and Stephen Ireland joined the team.

The books are giving Manchester City a 60% chance to win and I think that's the right line in here. Yes, they are a "superior" team, but their defensive problems without Kompany are a real issue, as Cardiff City showed back in Round 2. Stoke City created good scoring chances in all their three games so far, with 6, 5 and 5 shots on target. Therefore, my lean in here is the over 2.5 goals, as I see Stoke taking advantage of City's poor defense, while Man City's offense will certainly produce as they always seem to perform, as they scored 4, 2 and 2 goals on their first three games in the league so far.

Additional Information:

I believe the totals line should be at 2.75 goals and not at 2.25 goals like it currently is.

In my opinion, the head to head games history between these two teams is setting the totals line to be so low, as all their last seven games ended up being under 2.5 goals. However, both teams have changed in comparison to the previous seasons. Stoke City is now playing a more open fluid offensive soccer and the change was so clear that the fourfourtwo website made a report about them. Mark Hughes will have more firepower for this game, with Marko Arnautovic, Oussama Assaidi and Stephen Ireland being added to his squad after a busy final day of the transfer window. Manchester City's defense is struggling without Vincent Kompany, so I expect Stoke to score today. On the other hand, Manchester City has a lot of offensive firepower led by Alvaro Negredo, so I believe this will be a high scoring game and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 2.25 @ -133 / 1.75 on Pinnacle OR @ -137 / 1.73 on 5Dimes