NBA - 817 Denver Nuggets @ 818 New Orleans Hornets
Projected line: 186 points | Denver by 2 points
The Hornets played a good game against Philadelphia (who is a horrible matchup for them) until the 4th quarter, where they committed at least 5 turnovers that quickly originated fast break plays from Philadelphia, with Jrue Holiday being clutch down the stretch to confirm the Sixers comeback at the end of the game. Besides that, New Orleans was highly competitive on that game! On this game, we have two completely different teams going head to head, as Denver is the #1 team in the league in transition plays, while the Hornets are just #29! Last season, the three games between these two teams had paces of 93, 87.7 and 88, numbers clearly well below the usual average pace of a Nuggets game and therefore, I expect the pace for this game to be dictated by the Hornets and that means we are headed to a slow paced game.
On this kind of conditions, Denver may struggle a bit as considering they are a bad shooting% team, their perimeter will have problems in operating on a half court game. They prefer a wide game with a lot of fast break points and a lot of action in the paint. Note that Denver is just shooting 31% FG from 16-23 feet and 26% in 3pts! The Nuggets are a team which lives from their transitions (1.26 PPP with 22.2% volume), while they clearly struggle spot ups plays, where they are just #20 in the league (0.86 PPP with 21.8% volume). I expect the Hornets defense to have some success against Denver, as not only they have depth on the frontline with Okafor, Landy, Kaman and Philipps, as they are 9th on TO/rate with just 13.44%! With less turnovers, Denver has also less chances for fast breaks. The Nuggets have a poor rim defense by allowing 72% FG and so, I expect the Hornets big men to pound them down low tonight.
Even though Denver has been more impressive this season than the Hornets, the truth is this game will be played at a pace that favours the Hornets game more than the Nuggets and looking at the matchups, especially with the advantage of the Hornets frontcourt in the offense, I can see them making this game highly competitive and this is why I'll take them in here. As I expect this game to have a slower than usual pace for a Nuggets game, which will pose some problems to Denver's offense, I'll also be taking the under on this contest, as my projection gave me a line of 186 points.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817/818 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 818 New Orleans Hornets (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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