NBA Free Premium Play 05/13: Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder

LA Clippers  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 735 Los Angeles Clippers @ 736 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #3 On my write up w/ OKC+5.5 in the last game I’ve said the following: “The first 2 games of this series were basically one sided affairs but G3 was a tight contest w/ the score being 108-107 w/ just 2:32 to go! Both teams could have won the game and I really think that this will be the case for today and so, this 5-pts is just too much! I would be saying the same if the game was @ OKC and OKC was favored by 5 points!” It is pretty curious that rallied back and won G3 behind a small ball lineup w/ Kevin Durant being the Power Forward and in the last game, the reverse happened w/ LAC as they played a 3-guards lineup in the 4th quarter and they completely crushed OKC by 14 points in the final frame. For tonight’s contest, both teams will be prepared for any kind of small ball version from their opponents, so IMO, this won’t be a big factor – it’s hard to imagine CP3 once again defending Durant in crunch time! Nevertheless, we have a clear coaching edge for LAC w/ Doc Rivers vs. Scott Brooks. After having 26 assists in G3, OKC reverted to being… “OKC” w/ just 17 assists and a lot of ISO stuff in their offense. I understand that OKC dominated G3 since the start but the Clippers were missing way too many good looks early on the game! Via NBA.com/stats, OKC shot 52.6% on uncontested shots (20-38 FG) while LAC shot just 41.5% (17-41%) and still, LAC won the game! My fair line for this contest is OKC by 2/3 points and therefore, I’m taking the Clippers tonight as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735 Los Angeles Clippers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/06: Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers

LA Lakers  at LA Clippers

NBA - 503 Los Angeles Lakers @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers Play #2 My first lean for this contest was LAL+16 as surely, the Lakers want to avenge the humiliation suffered at the hands of the Clippers in the last h2h (LAC won 142-94). However, how in the hell the Lakers’ defense will be able to slow down LAC’s attack? P. Gasol & K. Kaman are OUT for this contest so LAL won’t have kind of interior defense…in L2 games, LAL allowed 52 and 64 points in the paint! Just have a look for DAL’s big men offensive production against them: “Nowitzki had 27 points on 11-of-14 shooting, Brandan Wright scored a season-high 23 while going 10 of 10 from the field and former Kings center Samuel Dalembert came up with 14 points and 14 rebounds.” LAC will score so easy in transition and near the basket that I just can’t go with the Lakers! In that game, LAL scored “only” 94 points and this is something that I expect LAL’s to improve in here… LAL is playing @ tremendous fast pace lately! They are averaging 22.6 fast break points per game in L5 contests! Obviously, we need them to hit some three pointers but note that they are sharing the ball quite well w/ 26.8 assists per game in those 5 games! We can expect this contest to be a crazy fast paced contest…according to my numbers, the last H2H between these two teams was the FASTEST PACED game of this season! With the Clippers scoring so easily via transition & down low and with the Lakers w/ their outside shooting, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 224.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/25: Los Angeles Clippers @ Toronto Raptors

LA Clippers  at Toronto

NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Toronto Raptors Play #2 My fair line for this contest is 202 points so @ 197.5/198 points, we have the proper edge to play w/ OVER. Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights but I don’t think fatigue will be a big factor for tonight. Both teams are sharing the ball quite well and so, they are creating plenty of good looks for their shooters… LAC had 26 assists vs. 7 TO’s last night vs. terrific CHI defense while TOR had 28 assists vs. 15 TO’s vs. PHI. TOR’s P&R offense was super sharp last night w/ Lowry being a major factor (he had 7-11 FG, 18 pt, 10 reb and 13 assists), and for tonight I expect him to have some edge over D. Collison. TOR’s is coming from 2 good defensive performances in L2 games, but they have faced DAL’s playing without Nowitzki and they have stopped PHI’s offense only in the 4th quarter. LAC’s offense is in “another level” and so , I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 197.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 12/26: Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers

LA Clippers  at Portland

NBA - 507 Los Angeles Clippers @ 508 Portland Trailblazers Play #3 I know that the Clippers will play a back to back game, so tiredness might be a factor in here. However, considering how they lost yesterday's game at Golden State with Blake Griffin being unfairly ejected early in the fourth quarter, I believe the LA team will be fired up for tonight with the bounce back mindset easily overcoming the tired spot. I have no problems in admitting that the Clippers would have won last night's game without Blake's ejection, making me lose the play I had on the Warriors. The Clippers are a bad match up for the Blazers. I understand that the Blazers have playing great and their offensive strength with LaMarcus Aldridge and their outside shooters is terrific! However, the bad news for Portland is that the Clippers are the best 3pts defense in the league with just 32.4% 3pts allowed! The Clippers' individual defense at the PG position is possible the best in the league with Chris Paul and Darren Collison and so, no wonder that the LA team is #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense. Therefore, Damian Lillard won't have an easy task against Chris Paul and with that, Portland's perimeter shooting should struggle on this match up. Of course the key match up in here will be between Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge, but both players are in great form right now and so, I expect both to play well tonight. I believe that the team that will generate more easy points down low will have a bigger chance to win this game, as both teams are excellent on 3pts defense. In that way, the Clippers are #11 on defending the paint, while Portland is just #22! Portland has been super clutch at home this season. They won their home games against Indiana, Oklahoma City, Houston and against New Orleans on their last game, but all those games were ballgames where Portland won the game just on the last possessions of the game. I believe that the Blazers might repeat that tonight, but that will give us an excellent spot to take the Clippers plus the points tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Los Angeles Clippers (+4,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 12/12

NBA - 501 Los Angeles Clippers @ 502 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1

*** TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Regardless of their opponent for tonight, the Clippers will have to deal with a terrible physical spot. This will be their 6 straight road game, their 6th game in 9 days and we are talking about a team that lacks the proper depth and to make things even worse, they are shorthanded as well. They were able to win last night @BOS with a strong second half but they were facing a tired team that was playing the 2nd night of a b2b spot.

The decision to make the Nets a top play or a simple Single Dime Play was made after watching the great return of Deron Williams against the Celtics this last Tuesday.  I understand that the Nets are still far from being a great team but they will have tonight one particular huge edge on my opinion: Brook Lopez!

Lopez is just unstoppable on the post. He had 9-18 FG, 11-13 FG and 10-13 FG in the last 3 games and the Clippers only have DeAndre Jordan to defend him who is a bit foul prone. I expect the Nets frontcourt to complete dominate this contest. I remember that the Cavs’ frontcourt crushed the Clippers a few days ago w/ 16 offensive boards & 56.4% reb/rate while Andrew Bynum in just 24min went 8-13 from the field. LAC doesn’t have any depth on the front. Yesterday Doc Rivers used Jamison and Hollins for just 12 minutes and I saw for some moments Jared Dudley being @PF in some bizarre small ball lineups. Luckily for them, the Celtics don’t have a strong frontline so the Clippers were able to play small. This won’t happen tonight!

I was surprised with how good Deron Williams looked like on his return. He pushed the pace, he was aggressive and his shot was solid, just look to his stats line: 37min, 10-16 FG, 4-7 FT, 25 points and 7 assists. Make no mistake, the Nets perimeter defense remains awful and the Celtics torched them by hitting 11-22 3pts. However the Clippers are really struggling to hit outside shots during this road trip: 33-118 - a 28% mark! Their best shooter Reddick is out and with heavy legs, I don’t think they will be able to explore the Nets’ defensive weakest link. The presence of Deron Williams is extremely important because it will make CP3 work hard on the defensive end and again, this is a terrible physical spot for the Clippers!

I’m taking the Nets as one of my strongest plays of the season – Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 502 Brooklyn Nets (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/09: Los Angeles Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers

LA Clippers  at Philadelphia

NBA - 701 Los Angeles Clippers @ 702 Philadelphia 76ers Play #1 A healthy and a confident Clippers team would crush the 76ers on the offensive end. The 76ers are a poor defensive team in defending P&R’s, spot up and transition plays and on these 3 areas while pushing the pace in every opportunity and the Clippers are a great offensive team in all these areas. However, the Clippers are banged up especially on the perimeter and obviously their outside shooting has been inconsistent and erratic lately. In 3 of their last 4 games, they shot 4-15, 4-19 and 7-35 behind the arc – a truly awful 15-69 mark (21.7 %!). Their best game was @MEM but still they only played sharp offensive basketball in the second half. The 76ers lost their last game against the Nuggets at home where they ran out of gas in the second half, something normal considering they were playing @b2b and they really don’t have a lot of depth. Like the Clippers, they are struggling mightily to shoot from the outside, 27-95 (28.4%) 3pts L4 games but at least they are attacking the rim with no mercy: L4 games their vol% of shots at the rim were incredible – 41, 33, 47 and 47%! The good news for them is that LAC isn’t a good team protecting the rim, they are allowing 65% FG and without any real good backups I don’t expect that to change dramatically so the 76ers have a good spot to score easy points down low. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 208,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/23: Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers

Sacramento  at LA Clippers

NBA - 701 Sacramento Kings @ 702 Los Angeles Clippers Play #2 NOTE: early game! The Clippers aren't on a good physical spot for today, as they played back to back games Wednesday and Thursday, with both games being quite intensive ones at Minnesota and especially at Oklahoma City. They are now returning home and they will play this 12PM local time game against Sacramento. Their lack of depth on the frontcourt is becoming problematic, as it has been easy to score against them near the basket. In fact, the LA team is allowing 52.5 points in the paint over the last 7 games, while allowing near 70% FG at the rim! On this letdown spot for the Clippers, it's important to know if the Kings have been improving or not lately. Their new Head Coach Mike Malone is still looking for the team's best lineups. Sacramento was playing with DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson on the frontcourt, but they were being constantly outrebounded and so, Malone replace Patterson with Jason Thompson and the results have been good so far. Sacramento's perimeter defense was also looking too soft and so, Malone benched John Salmons and replaced him with Luc Mbah a Moute, a player that gives more athleticism and especially more consistency to the lineup. So, the Kings with these changes were able to beat Phoenix two times in a row and their win at Phoenix was their first road win of the season! I don't expect this game to be an easy one for the Clippers, as Sacramento will have an edge with Cousins down low and with Isiah Thomas coming off the bench, the team will have a clear edge over the Clippers' backup guards. On the first game of the season between these two teams, the Clippers won at Sacramento by 9 points due to big fourth quarter, but this Kings team has nothing to do with the team that played that game. In fact, only Cousins and Vasquez remain in the starting lineup since then. Therefore, I'll be taking Sacramento today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Sacramento Kings (+10,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 10/31: Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

Golden State  at LA Clippers

NBA - 503 Golden State Warriors @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers Play #2 & #3 The Clippers got crushed on the fourth quarter of their opening game against the Lakers. Of course the main reason for that was their poor defense, something that Doc Rivers immediately mentioned after the game. "I thought we broke down a lot defensively" Doc Rivers said. "All the things we've worked on that we do in the drill, then when the lights came on, we didn't do them and they took advantage of them." So, the key question for this game is if the Clippers will be able to adjust defensively with just one practice in the middle between games. I believe that's highly unlikely and I really think that the Clippers will continue to struggle on defense on their following games. Doc Rivers is trying to implement the same defensive system that he used in Boston, a system that had Kevin Garnett as the key defensive player, who was amazing on team help defensive coverage.  That role in LA has to be performed by Blake Griffin, who lacks Garnett's excellent defensive skills (so far). Worse than that, the Clippers have J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley on the backcourt, two players who aren't explosive enough on closing out on the opposing shooters. This is why the Lakers shot 14-29 3pts against them and that they will get an even tougher task tonight against the team that was #1 on 3pts% last season. Besides that, the Warriors showed already yesterday that they have a great offensive flow and two of the best shooters in the league in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors absolutely crushed the Lakers last night and so, they were able to rest players for today. This was vital for them, as their lack of depth is the team's main weakness, especially with Harrison Barnes injured. On the other hand, the Clippers' offense looked good against the Lakers, with a good ball movement (27 assists) and 19 fast break points. Their only problem was the poor 13-23 FT, with Blake Griffin struggling with 3-10 FT! Also Chris Paul didn't impress a lot with 5-13 FG, something weird as he had an excellent offensive matchup in that game. The Clippers are still struggling on their second unit especially due to the lack of a reliable big man. In fact, from the bench, Ryan Hollins was the only frontcourt player that entered the court and only for four minutes! Mark Jackson will possibly save Andre Iguodala to defend Chris Paul on the fourth quarter, something that could make Paul struggle a bit, especially as the Clippers don't have a perimeter defensive stopped like Eric Bledsoe last season to hide Chris Paul from having to defend Curry or Klay. I expect a close and offensive minded contest in here, with both teams showing more efficiency on offense than on defense. I believe the Warriors are being clearly underrated in here as well and so, I'll be taking both Golden State and the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Golden State Warriors (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 10/29: Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 505 Los Angeles Clippers @ 506 Los Angeles Lakers

Play #3

This game will be a pure run and gun contest that will put the two LA teams head to head. Right now both teams look to be more "ready" on their offensive processes than on defense. I watched several games of the Clippers on the preseason and there are no doubts that they will be one of the best offensive teams in the regular season. Their offensive flow is already way superior with Doc Rivers than it was with Vinny Del Negro. They are now quicker in executing on offense, while they are moving a lot more off the ball. On the break, they keep being lethal as usual by averaging 22 fast break points per game on their last four games of the preseason.

Therefore, I believe that the Clippers won't have problems in scoring against the Lakers, who will be in my opinion one of the worst defensive teams in the league, especially while playing on a run and gun style. According to my preseason rankings stats, the Lakers were one of the fastest paced teams in the league and for this opening day game, coach Mike D'Antoni will use a small ball lineup with Pau Gasol, Shawne Williams, Nick Young, Steve Blake and Steve Nash. This lineup will be an easy opponent for the Clippers' offense and everything will start on the matchup between Chris Paul and Steve Nash.

However, the Lakers might surprise the Clippers on offense, as the Clippers' frontcourt defense hasn't been looking good. Pau Gasol looked pretty sharp physically on the preseason and I believe he will have a good performance in here. The Lakers will spread the floor with a lot of guards on the court and this will be problematic for the Clippers who will have to fit Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan on defending such a small lineup. Doc Rivers will eventually have to put Griffin at the Center position and set his team into a small lineup as well, but until then the Lakers will offer a lot of problems to the Clippers' defense.

I expect this game to have more than 200 points scored on a fast paced game, where both offenses will outstage both defenses. So, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Los Angeles Clippers NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	91.1	19
Offense	110.6	4
Defense	103.6	8
Rebound	51.2	7

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	52.6	4	eFG%	49.2	12
TO%	13.9	18	TO%	15.4	1
Reb%	28.8	8	Reb%	26.5	15
FT%	20.3	15	FT%	22.9	29

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	9-6	109.2	103.8
December	16-0	115.8	98.9
January	9-7	109.0	106.0
February	8-5	109.1	107.0
March	7-7	113.4	110.9
April	7-1	120.4	107.0

If it wasn’t for the fact that the Clippers got eliminated immediately on the first round of the playoffs against the Grizzlies by losing the last four games of the series and we would be talking of the amazing regular season that the Clippers had last season.

They had a franchise-high 56 regular season wins, while easily winning the Pacific Division with an elite offense. Any team that has Chris Paul will always be a top offensive team and the Clippers were indeed #4 in the league on offensive efficiency.

The Clippers had in their second unit a deadly weapon throughout the season and that helped them into becoming an elite team. Their style was quite unique as they didn’t run many plays on half court. They would simply be ultra aggressive on the defensive end, looking to create turnovers and then they would simply run over their opponents with quick transition plays. This was the main reason why the Clippers were the best team in the league in forcing turnovers on their opponents.

They had a perfect month of December with a 16-0 record, while winning their games by more than 15 points per game, with their defense being simply outstanding during this span. On four games in a row, the Clippers held their opponents to 76, 77, 85 and 77 points! However, the Clippers couldn’t keep this level during the second half of the season by having a subpar 18-17 record between the end of January and the start of April. This was caused by a clear decline on defense that couldn’t sustain their good level from the start of the season.

Several players had excellent seasons besides Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Eric Bledsoe was a nightmare matchup for the opposing backcourts due to his aggressiveness. Jamal Crawford provided instant offense while coming off the bench. Matt Barnes was also superb in both ends of the floor on 25 minutes per game.

The player that disappointed the team the most was DeAndre Jordan due to his inability to score free throws that quickly started to be explored by the opposing coaches to hack him late in the game, something that forced Coach Vinny Del Negro to bench him down the stretch.

In the playoffs, it looked like the Clippers were going to advance on their series against the Grizzlies in the first round after the winning the first two games of the series. However, the Clippers lost four games in a row after those wins the bad indications of their “poor” defense left on the second half of the season was quite clear in those losses, as the offensively challenged Grizzlies averaged 105 points in those four games! The most impressive memory of this series was the Clippers’ frontcourt getting completely outplayed by Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.

Offseason Report:

The franchise’s weakest link since Chris Paul joined the team has always been Vinny Del Negro, who has been criticized since he came to LA. Del Negro didn’t do a terrible job in Chicago, but when Coach Tom Thibodeau joined the Bulls, he put Chicago into the elite with the same core of players that Del Negro had, something that ruined Del Negro’s coaching reputation. The positive part of the past season was that Del Negro managed the team’s deep roster quite well, full of players who wanted more playing time, but who got convinced not to protest on the media by their coach.

With Del Negro leaving the team on the off season, we watched a soap opera involving Coach Doc Rivers, Kevin Garnett and other “actors”. Finally, after a lot of rumors, Doc Rivers indeed signed with the Clippers to be their new Head Coach.

Last season the Clippers had one of the best rosters in the league, full of quality options on the bench, something that new GM Gary Sacks wanted to have this season as well.

Eric Bledsoe leaving was pretty much inevitable, as he would never had the minutes that he wanted with LA with Chris Paul on the team. Therefore, Bledsoe joined the Suns. To improve the backcourt, the Clippers signed Darren Collison and J.J. Redick on free agency. Jared Dudley was involved on the Bledsoe trade and landed in LA as well.

For the frontcourt, the Clippers signed veteran Antawn Jamison and Byron Mullens, something that doesn’t impress me one bit.

LA CLIPPERS OFFSEASON REPORT

With just one off-season move, the Clippers secured the continuity of Chris Paul and this move wasn't even related with players transactions. It was a coaching change. Vinny Del Negro is gone and Doc Rivers is the new Clippers' head coach. 

Even though I was never a fan of Del Negro, the truth is that he was able to manage the deepest roster in the league quite well during the regular season, with nobody complaining about the lack of playing time. The problem was that the Clippers didn't improve during the season and a declining defense during the second half of the season doomed them. On a playoff series against the one-dimensional offensive team of the Grizzlies, who couldn't shoot from the perimeter to save their lives, the Clippers still allowed an incredible 117.9 offensive rating to Memphis in the last four games of the series, while losing all these games and the series as consequence. 

Doc Rivers will immediately have a good start in LA, as he will have something that Vinny never had: a "good press". Doc is regarded by some folks as the best NBA coach in the league, but I believe he is overrated and he is far from being a Top 3 coach in the league in my opinion. During the Big Three era in Boston, the Celtics were always a good defensive team, but don't forget that was Tom Thibodeau who implemented the defensive scheme as Rivers's assistant:

2012-13 #6 w/ 101.1 DefRtg

2011-12 #2 w/ 95.5 DefRtg

2010-11 #2 w/ 97.8 DefRtg

2009-10 #5 w/ 101.1 DefRtg

2008-09 #2 w/ 99.4 DefRtg

2007-08 #1 w/ 96.2 DefRtg

Even without Kevin Garnett or Rajon Rondo, even with Kevin Garnett playing as Center, no matter what happened, the Celtics were always a good defensive team on this era. The problem was on the other side of the basketball. The Celtics showed no evolution of their offense especially throughout the last few seasons and the main culprit of that has to be their coach Doc Rivers. Just look at what Gregg Popovich did on San Antonio meanwhile by changing the Spurs' offensive schemes, while their main core of players was getting older. These were the Celtics' average offensive ratings by season during the Big Three era:

2012-13 #20 w/ 101.1 OffRtg

2011-12 #24 w/ 98.9 OffRtg

2010-11 #17 w/ 104.0 OffRtg

2009-10 #14 w/ 105.1 OffRtg

2008-09 #6 w/  108.1 OffRtg

2007-08 #11 w/  107.6 OffRtg

During the last three seasons, the Celtics were always outside the Top 15 of the league on offensive ratings. This is something that can't be ignored when we evaluate Rivers's coaching job in Boston. His rants are fantastic and his late plays design on crunch time are great as well. However, Doc is far from being the best coach in the league.

As long as Chris Paul keeps himself healthy, the Clippers will be one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league. However, there were some offensive holes in the team last season that the Clippers have wisely decided to fix during this off-season. The LA team was a streaky shooting team by being #15 in the league with 35.8% 3pts. To give them more consistency on this area, the Clippers signed J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley. Redick is coming from a bad experience at Milwaukee during the second half of the past season, where the Bucks simply didn't know how to use his strengths. It's just difficult for any guard to have the ball when playing alongside Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis... On the other hand, Jared Dudley compensates his lack of athleticism with a good basketball IQ and a good shooting stroke that he developed while playing alongside Steve Nash. To help them on the perimeter shooting, Jamal Crawford (who can't defend at all) is still in LA, just like Matt Barnes, who is always quite useful on any team. 

Eric Bledsoe is gone to Phoenix and the super dynamic second unit that the Clippers showed last season is basically gone without Bledsoe, but the truth is that he deserved a team that could give him more minutes, something that he would never get in the Clippers while being Paul's backup. To replace him, the Clippers signed Darren Collison, who is coming from a terrible season in Dallas. Collison was so poor last season that he got benched in favor of the 38-years old Mike James, who had just unretired. But we have to remember that Collison's best days were on his rookie season when he was Paul's backup in New Orleans and then a starter for the Hornets when Paul went down with an injury. Let's see if he rediscovers some of his magic while playing alongside Paul once again. 

But once again, the frontcourt will be the Clippers' X factor for the new season. Blake Griffin had a great improvement on free throw shooting last season with 66.0% FT, much better than the 52.1% FT from 2011-12. But the same thing can't be said about DeAndre Jordan who shot an absolutely ridiculous 38.6% FT last season! This problem prevented him from playing in the final minutes of several games. Thanks to this, Jordan is getting paid about 11 million per season to play about 25 minutes per game! Doc Rivers will have to find a solution for this. If he's able to do that, then the Clippers will have to be considered as a legitimate threat on the West.

NBA Premium Play 05/03: Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 551 Los Angeles Clippers @ 552 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: Memphis by 9 points

As I mentioned on my writeup on Game 5, Memphis have correctly set the right rotations for this series. Quincy Pondexter is being a defensive factor, with Jerryd Bayless having less minutes due to his defensive problems. The Clippers have a big problem now with Blake Griffin being clearly limited with an ankle injury. If he was struggling while healthy to matchup with Zach Randolph, he is now getting completely crushed by Randolph. With Griffin completely limited, the Clippers don't have any other frontcourt player with decent offensive skills. DeAndre Jordan can just dunk, same goes for Ronny Turiaf and Ryan Hollins. Lamar Odom has been more skill on offense, but he has absolutely no chance of defending Randolph. This is dramatic for the Clippers, as Memphis's defense can now focus on the perimeter, an area where their elite defense excels. Memphis has been defending Chris Paul 1*1, but he was still able to have an amazing performance on Game 5, with 11-24 FG, 35 points and 11-11 FT, but Memphis is more worried in shutting down the remaining players, while turning Chris Paul into a pure scorer and not a playmaker. This is why Paul had just 4 assists in the previous games of this season.

The Clippers have been having great numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays (0.94, 1.13, 0.53, 1.22, 1.18 PPP), but the Grizzlies's defense is more concerned in shutting down the Clippers on spot ups and they have been doing exactly that by allowing just 0.92, 0.64, 0.75, 0.46 and 0.55 PPP throughout the series! The Clippers's perimeter shooting was only decent on Game 1, as in the remaining games, the Clippers shot just a combined of 21-76 (27.6%) 3pts! Besides the fact that Memphis knows how to stop the Clippers's offense, the Grizzlies are also now outrebounding the LA team by allowing the Clippers to grab just 38.69%, 38.70% and 48.33% of the rebounds on the last three games of this series. On offense, both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have been pounding the Clippers's frontcourt on the down low quite easily, something that also offers extra space to their teammates on the backcourt. We have every condition to think that the Grizzlies are going to close out the series tonight with an easy win and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 552 Memphis Grizzlies (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/30: Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers

NBA - 529 Memphis Grizzlies @ 530 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: LA Clippers by 2 points

This series is being brutal with the home teams winning every game so far. The Clippers being favored by 5.5 points is a pretty considerable line for them, but I really think that Memphis can really steal this contest and win tonight's game straight-up. The evolution of this series is showing the good job Memphis's coach Lionel Hollins is doing in making adjustments throughout the series, especially in comparison to Vinnie Del Negro, who is getting outcoached one more time. Therefore, I believe Memphis is much better prepared to beat the Clippers right now than they were at the start of the series. 

The Game 1 was a blowout win for the Clippers, but the score doesn't tell what happened on the court, as Memphis was only down by 1 point at the start of the fourth quarter. The game was pretty weird for the Grizzlies, as Zach Randolph was in foul trouble, something that was a huge blow for Memphis on this game. It's true that Blake Griffin was also in foul trouble during that game, but when they are both on court, Randolph has been clearly outplaying Griffin on this series. Memphis struggled on rebounding and they also struggled in stopping Chris Paul and the rest of the Clippers's backcourt. Rotations-wise, Austin Daye got first-quarter minutes, Keyon Dooling played more minutes (18) than Tony Allen (17) and Jerryd Bayless's good shooting prompted him to get 30 minutes of play, even though his defense was poor and the Grizzlies got outscored by 11 points while Bayless was on the floor.

So, how did the Grizzlies bounced back from that and started to defend better Chris Paul? In Game 1, small guards like Mike Conley, Keyon Dooling and Jerryd Bayless defended Paul at times, with Tony Allen switching onto Paul for just a couple of possessions during the game. In Game 2, the Grizzlies put Tony Allen defending Chris Paul during the last couple of possessions of the game. But, back in Memphis, the Grizzlies finally went bigger on Paul, with Quincy Pondexter and Tony Allen logging heavy minutes on him in the second halves of Games 3 and 4, with even Tayshaun Prince switching onto him for a couple of times. This resulted in Jerryd Bayless getting just 9, 10 and 9 minutes of play in the last three games of the series due to his poor defense.

Memphis's defense is being itself during this series and showing why they are the best defensive team in the West. They are packing the paint and their defensive rotations on the perimeter have been excellent, as the Clippers after shooting 7-19 3pts in Game 1, shot just 2-15, 9-23 and 4-21 3pts on the last three games. Eventually, the Clippers may shoot a bit better tonight, but the Grizzlies isn't giving them a lot of easy looks and so, the Clippers will continue struggling to find good looks to shoot the ball. Offensively, the Grizzlies is simply outscoring the Clippers when the starters are on the court, something worrying for the Clippers. Zach Randolph is dominating down low and if we combine that with the great numbers Marc Gasol has been getting with his mid-range jumpers, Memphis's frontcourt is completely outplaying the Clippers's frontcourt. The key factor for Memphis has been the decision of minimizing the minutes where  Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince have been on court together, as the Clippers can ignore both players on offense to focus on Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.

The Clippers tried to play small ball for some moments with Blake Griffin at Center, but he got crushed by Gasol during that span. So, Vinnie Del Negro has a tough job for tonight, while the Grizzlies have already found a way to be very competitive against the Clippers during this series. Therefore, I'll be taking the more prepared Grizzlies on tonight's game plus the points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 529 Memphis Grizzlies (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/27: Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 503 Los Angeles Clippers @ 504 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Line: 170 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This is in my opinion, the best spot of this series for a low scoring game, as we are in front of two teams that had just one day off to rest, while this contest will be also an early game. Therefore, the little time for rest between games on this very physical series is brutal for both teams. Memphis finally managed to win a game on this series on Game 3 and their gameplan was pretty easy to understand and it was also the main reason why I also took the Under in that game. They slowed down a bit the pace of the game, especially when the Clippers's second unit was on court to avoid the LA team to have a bunch of transition points. For the first time on this series, the Clippers had single digits fast break points, With the game being a pure half court contest, the Grizzlies didn't concede good looks to the Clippers due to their great perimeter defense, even though the LA team still shot 9-23 3pts! But overall, the Grizzlies's defense was at a level that they hadn't reached in both Game 1 and 2. 

On the other side, Memphis's offense has to work a lot to generate points. We all know that they don't have good shooting skills and this was proven with their 4-16 3pts. The Grizzlies have now shot 11-39 (28%) on the first three games of this series! The Clippers's defense is simply packing the paint and dare Memphis to shoot from the outside. Perhaps both teams will shoot a bit better today, but the referees from Game 3 were too tight on the calls and they didn't let the teams to get physical. Not only there were a lot of free throws attempts, as both teams were very effective from the charity line, with the Clippers shooting 21-23 FT (Blake Griffin had 6-7 FT!)! The potential improved shooting on today's game will be compensated by less free throws attempts and less effectiveness on the charity line, so I expect another very low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 178 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/22: Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers

NBA - 719 Memphis Grizzlies @ 720 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: LA Clippers by 3 points

From all the blowout wins that happened on the first game of the playoffs series, the Clippers's win over Memphis was the blowout whose result tells the least about what it happened on court during the game. With 10 minutes to go on the game, the Clippers were just up by 1 point, but their second unit led by Eric Bledsoe made a great run and helped their team in deciding the game in their favor. Until that run, all the small things went right for the Clippers, but the Grizzlies were still being competitive. The Clippers got some "lucky" rebounding going their way, Jamal Crawford hit a very contested three-pointer, while being fouled for a 3+1 play, with Chauncey Billups also making a lucky 2+1 jumper afterwards. 

As expected in every game refereed by Scott Foster, the game had a huge amount of fouls, not allowing any kind of physically between players. Thanks to that, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph quickly got into foul trouble in the first quarter, with Mike Conley also getting in foul trouble later on. Thanks to that, these three players were on court for just 17, 25 and 28 minutes respectively and so, Memphis struggled as they don't have the great depth that the Clippers have.

The Grizzlies got crushed on the boards, where Memphis were doubled-up (47-23) and allowed the Clippers to correct 42% of their own misses. The Grizzlies's offensive rebound rate of 31.0 was second best in the NBA in the regular season, but on the Game 1 of this series, they secured barely more than 10 percent of their misses. Finally, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph weren't terrible offensively (combined of 29 points on 10-22 FG and 8 assists), but it wasn't enough because they combined for a shocking six rebounds in 45 minutes of play! 

I don't expect this to happen once again tonight. I expect to see Memphis being more focused and especially also getting some lucky bounces going in their way as well. I believe the referees will allow more physical play than in Game 1 and this will only help the Grizzlies's physical style. Blake Griffin didn't look at 100% in Game 1 due to his back problems, but Zach Randolph couldn't capitalize on that due to foul trouble. Even though I give some edge to the Clippers down the stretch due to Chris Paul, I see Memphis being much more competitive tonight than the current spread line is predicting. Therefore, I'll be taking the Grizzlies in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 Memphis Grizzlies (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/20: Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers

NBA - 707 Memphis Grizzlies @ 708 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: 184 points

This series will be very physical and we will surely have good opportunities to cash some Under plays in some of its games. However, we are today in presence of the best scenario this series will have for a relatively high scoring game, as I have a projected line of 184 points in here. The Clippers's gameplan at home will surely be push more the pace in order to score in transition, one of their strongest areas. The LA team has also more depth, so we can expect their second unit to push the pace as well today. Chris Paul has already mentioned exactly that:

"We're in a situation where if we play the way we know how to play, we don't have to worry about what they're doing," Chris Paul said. "We can impose our will, pick up the tempo and just play."

The last game played between these two teams ended with 178 points scored and there was a clear difference between the first and the second half: 51-51 vs 36-40. The difference in the points scored in the two halves was related with the fact that both teams were on back to back spots, where they had to travel to play at Memphis. They got tired in the second half, with the opposing defenses outplaying their offenses. 

Jerryd Bayless is now Memphis's 6th man and Coach Hollins has been using him a lot of the backcourt alongside Mike Conley. Thanks to that, the Grizzlies can now also score in transition given the chance. Note that when Memphis won at LA against the Clippers back in March, they didn't score a single fast break point, but on the last game between these two teams, with Bayless having a more prominent role on the rotation, they scored 12 fast break points!

I also expect this game to be well controlled by the referees, who won't allow this game to become a grudge match because that would be brutal on a potential 7-games series if things get out of hands immediately on Game 1. Coincidentally or not, the NBA assigned Scott Foster for tonight's game as the main ref and he is the referee who called more fouls on the regular season. So, I expect the referees to make some tight calls in here and turn this contest into a free-throw fest. Also don't discount the fact that Memphis will use some hack-a-Jordan during tonight's game as well. Therefore, I see this game being a relatively high-scoring game for a contest between these two teams and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Playoff Preview: Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies

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You can forget UFC for the following week. The real fight will happen on this playoff series! Since the past season, these two teams have faced each other 14 times. So, we can definitely say that they know each other very well and there won't be a lot of secrets being explored on this series. The Clippers started the regular season at full speed, but they had some regression during the 2nd half of the season, mostly due to some defensive issues. They average a defensive rating of 103.7 during the 1st half of the season, but just 108.7 after the All Star break. I don't believe Eric Bledsoe's physical issues justify such regression on its own. In fact, during my scouting on the Clippers, I've noticed that they struggled in rotating properly to close out the shooters on the outside and their frontcourt players rarely make the smart decision between hedging out or trapping the opposing ball handler. So, it's no surprise for me that the LA team was just #26 in the league on 3pts defense with 37.3% allowed during the regular season. But are the Grizzlies ready to explore the biggest weakness of the Clippers's defense? Note that Memphis was the team that had the least amount of 3pts attempts during the regular season with just 13.5 attempted treys per game, while they were also just #24 in 3pts% with 34.5%!

On the other hand, everything will go through the hands of Chris Paul. He is the Clippers's floor general and the guy who will get the ball down the stretch for the LA team. Memphis's defense has been an elite unit all season long and they are averaging an incredible 101.6 defensive rating since the Gay/Prince trade. Mike Conley, Tony Allen and even Tayshaun Prince will get minutes defending Chris Paul during this season, in order to give him different looks. The Clippers's perimeter shooting has been streaky and just like it happens on the other end of the floor, the perimeter shooting will also be the key of the Clippers's offense on this series. If the LA team isn't able to be consistent on their 3pts shooting, then they become similar to the Grizzlies's offense.

The Clippers won the regular season series against the Grizzlies by 3-1 and note that the only win the Grizzlies had against the Clippers on the regular season was at LA. Memphis shot 7-14 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-12 3pts on their win, exposing how poor the Clippers's perimeter defense can be. This will be the key factor on this matchup, on a series that I predict to be similar to the one they had last season.

Prediction: Memphis in 6/7 games (if their perimeter shooting is effective) / LA Clippers in 6/7 games (if the Grizzlies struggle on their threes and the Clippers are consistent on their long-range shooting)