NBA - 721 Dallas Mavericks @ 722 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected line: 188 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
We
are in my opinion in the presence of a completely underpriced totals
line in here and it's the result of the past games of the Mavs. My
projection for this game is 188 points and so, I'll take the over in
here on a Double Dime Play. After a bad defensive start, Dallas has been
impressive on defense in their last five games by allowing just 92.39,
93.32, 95.12, 86,01 & 65.84 off rates to their opponents. Even
though the Mavs unquestionably started playing better on defense, it's
also important to look at the opponents they faced during this stretch:
New Orleans is a bad offensive team and they were on a back to back
spot. Detroit is also a poor offensive team and also playing on a back
to back spot. Boston has been struggling offensively as well. Milwaukee
was playing without Bogut and was also on a back to back game spot. And
finally, Sacramento has a terrible offense and was also on a back to
back spot. In fact, in the offensive efficiency rankings, only Boston is
at an average position (#12) with 101.3 off rates. The rest of the
teams are just terrible: Detroit 29th with 93.2, New Orleans 26th with
95.7, Sacramento 25th with 96.2 and Milwaukee 23rd with 97.7! So, even
though Dallas has been improving on defense, this was partially caused
by the poor offenses of their opponents.
Tonight, Dallas is facing a team who isn't on a back to back spot
and has the hottest player in the league right now. This is a massive
revenge game for the Lakers due to their humiliation at the hands of
Dallas in last year's playoffs and so, this is a huge emotional spot for
them. However, I'm not liking the way the Lakers is playing on offense:
too much volume% on Bryant! But the truth is that Kobe has been having
high % numbers and so, I don't believe Dallas will have defensive
numbers nowhere near their numbers on their last five games tonight. On
the other side, Dallas' offense has been slowly improving. The Mavs are
getting better chemistry as the games go by and they have been having
some great ball movement. They are already 9th on Spot Up plays with
0.97 PPP with 21.80% volume and the matchup problems they've created to
the Lakers in last year's playoffs won't disappear and so, Dallas with
their excellent offensive flow will create a lot of problems to the
Lakers defense tonight.
Last year, even on the playoffs series between these two teams, the
totals line was never lower than 187.5 points and curiously, that should
have been the line for this contest in my opinion. As we are getting a
much lower line in here, I'll be taking the over in here on a Double
Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 721/722 Over 181,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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