NBA - 711 Portland Trailblazers @ 712 New Orleans Hornets
Projected line: Portland by 9 points
I
believe Portland has several edges for this contest. First of all,
their athleticism in the backcourt will heavily contrast with the lack
of athletic skills from the Hornets backcourt with Jack, Bellinelli and
Summers. Without Camby, Portland will use Aldridge as center and Thomas
as his backup and so, on theory I would agree that New Orleans would
have an edge tonight on the frontcourt and in the paint, as Portland are
indeed thin on this area, especially without Camby. However, the
Hornets don't really use this area of the court so much. The truth is
that just 24.1% of their shots are at the rim and just 18,7% are from
3-9 feet.
On the other side, Portland will have a clear physical advantage in
the backcourt, as I've said previously. The Blazers like to run and use
transition plays and this is exactly where the Hornets defense
struggles. The Hornets are decent at defending the paint and perimeter
both, but they have problems in stopping the break (29th defense on
transition plays by allowing 1.25 PPP). If you can raise the tempo on
them they're done, so the Blazers will also have a clear edge in here.
The Hornets have two kind of offensive plays, where they are pretty
good: P&R Ball Handler (3rd with 0.87 PPP and 12.40% volume) and
Offensive Rebounding (1st with 1.21 PPP and 6.60%). However, the Blazers
are a good defensive team on these two kind of plays: P&R Ball
Handler defense (11th with 0.77 PPP allowed and 14.00%) and Offensive
Rebounding (5th with 0.90 PPP allowed and 5.20% volume). So, I believe
the Blazers will be able to stop the Hornets offense, which is quite
weak on the other kind of plays.
I expect a bounce back win for Portland tonight, after having lost
their last three games. They have a clear athletic advantage over the
Hornets and with their superior offense, especially on transition plays,
I expect them to have an easy win today. Therefore, I'll take Portland
in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Portland Trailblazers (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment