NBA Free Premium Play 04/22: Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

Atlanta  at Indiana

NBA - 721 Atlanta Hawks @ 722 Indiana Pacers ***FREE Premium Play*** The Pacers are in serious problems after losing the first game of the series as they showed once again the same bad stuff exhibited in the last 2 months. Their offense has been “streaky” all season long and being tonight’s contest a high pressure game for them, I don’t think that they will be “relaxed” and ready to perform @ high level! Note that in the first game, their perimeter actually was quite decent as they hit 9-21 from 3pts (43%!)! G. Hill, L. Stephenson, P. George, E. Turner and C. Watson combined to hit 25-54 FG – a nice 46.3% FG mark! However, their biggest problem was on the defensive end and this is something that IND is going to be focused for tonight’s game! ATL is a bad matchup for them because their “bigs” are good outside shooters but still, IND’s defense (especially their perimeter guys) did a terrible job and allowed Jeff Teague to destroy them w/ 9-19 FG + 9-10 FT’s! Note that ATL scored only 28 points in the paint & had only 13 assists!  A more focused and aggressive IND’s defense should be able to shut down ATL’s defense and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 04/09: Chicago Bulls @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Chicago  at Minnesota

NBA - 715 Chicago Bulls @ 716 Minnesota Timberwolves ***FREE Premium Play*** The Timberwolves are coming from a pretty nice win vs. SAS last night, but unfortunately (for them), it has been tough to sustain the same level of effort in consecutive days as they are 0-7 ATS in L7 spots of b2b games. Without K. Martin and C. Budinger, the Wolves don’t have a lot of perimeter shooting on their current roster… they went just 5-15 3pts last night and are shooting just 23-78 from 3pts (29.5%) in L4 games. They were able to defeat the Spurs mostly because of their huge edge on the boards w/ 57.4% reb/rate%! The Spurs simply didn’t "show" any kind of energy last night… This kind of “physical edge” for the Wolves simply won’t happen against the Bulls tonight! CHI is playing some great basketball as of late and against a MIN’s offense that can’t hurt from the outside, I expect the Bulls to be pretty decent defensively. MIN won the first H2H @CHI early on the but note that both Hinrich & Noah didn’t play that game and we all know the importance of these two players for the Bulls (especially Noah). I expect the Bulls to be more “physical” than the Wolves and my fair line for this contest is CHI-6. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Chicago Bulls (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 04/05: Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards

Chicago  at Washington

NBA - 803 Chicago Bulls @ 804 Washington Wizards Play #3 The Wizards are coming from a nice win vs. the Knicks last night. They benefited from the fact that Carmelo Anthony wasn’t healthy, but really, the Knicks were a favorable matchup for them: 1) WAS’s poor and “soft” interior defense wasn’t exposed by a NYK team that is a basically a jump shooting team – NYK scored just 22 points in the paint and actually, when Stoudemire was attacking WAS’s big men, it was the best NYK' moment of the game; 2) NYK’s slow footed and bad overall perimeter defense was a great matchup for WAS’s lightning quick guards Wall & Beal - Not coincidently, Wall and Beal combined to hit 20-36 from the field! Well… from facing the NYK’s lack of inside game and physicality of their frontcourt, WAS will have to deal tonight w/ CHI’s frontcourt and this could be a “shock” for them! Also, the Bulls’ perimeter defense just can’t be compared to NYK’s perimeter defense, so I expect CHI to give a lot of problems to WAS in here. CHI will use their frontcourt to set up their offense… they have lost the first 2 games of the series so far in this season but note that in both games, Nene Hilario was healthy and played +35minutes! It’s one thing to have Nene on the frontcourt vs. having Booker, Harrington and/or Gooden and so, I think that we are catching the Bulls in a better spot in this contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Chicago Bulls (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/24: Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls

Indiana  at Chicago

NBA - 611 Indiana Pacers @ 612 Chicago Bulls ***FREE Premium Play*** These two teams have faced each other this past Friday with the Pacers winning the game 91-79. It was a classic grind out battle between two elite defenses…. It was almost impossible to score near the basket as both teams scored only 32 and 30 points in the paint while there were few transition opportunities for both teams to score. The key reason for the Pacers’ win was the fact that they were incredible efficient @ mid/long range shots (long 2’s) because they also struggled to hit 3pts pointers w/ just 2-11. Obviously, the Pacers aren’t consistent enough to hit those “long 2’s” shots and they were held to just 71 points in the next day by the Grizzlies. However, note that the Pacers despite all those offensive struggles as of late are still defending @ elite level! On the other, the Bulls struggled to score vs. PHI in the last game! I was surprised by the fact that the game was a super slow paced contest – strange if we take in account that it was against the “run and gun” 76ers’ team. For this contest, I expect the game to be another classic half court battle. Both teams are struggling to hit outside shots (Paul George is really struggling as of late) while interior defenses will make things tough for the opp. to score down. My fair line for this contest is 175/176 points and so, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 611/612 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/13: Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls

Houston  at Chicago

NBA - 691 Houston Rockets @ 692 Chicago Bulls Play #1 My fair line for this contest is 196 points and due to some early line movement, we have now the proper edge to pull the trigger w/ the Over. The Bulls offense is far from being elite but they are playing quite well for some time. D.J. Augustin has been a nice surprise for them w/ his nice outside shooting ability, but the key factor has been J. Noah. His passing ability on the high post is tremendous as he reads perfectly well the game.  This is where I think that the Bulls will have some offensive edge over the Rockets IMO. HOU’s defense can be lazy especially off the ball (Harden’s struggles are well documented), and I expect the Bulls to explore this HOU’s defensive weakness. On the other side, CHI’s defense is having some problems to stop opposing quick guards so far in the season. Tony Parker really abused them in the last game and the Rockets have in Harden and Lin, two bad individual matchups for them. Howard is coming from a tough and bad game @OKC, and he will be fired up for tonight. Noah is a great defensive player but his main strength is more related into being a phenomenal “help defender”. With Howard on the court, he simply can’t provide such help and the Rockets will explore Boozer’s awful overall defense. With both teams having some key offensive edges to explore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 691/692 Over 192.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 03/11: San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls

San Antonio  at Chicago

NBA - 559 San Antonio Spurs @ 560 Chicago Bulls Play #4 & #5 CHI is coming from a sequence of games in which they have faced mostly teams that play @ slow pace - NYK, BKN, DET (isn’t’ a slow paced team), MEM & MIA and obviously, this worked favorably for them! However, the Spurs are a completely different animal, and they will bring a style that CHI isn’t used to and will struggle heavily IMO to defend the Spurs’ well oiled offense! SAS is now healthy, they have the best record in the league and offensively wise, they are just killing the league right now due to their great tempo, great offensive flow and great continuity between the starting unit and their second unit. CHI is a great defensive team but they don’t have the proper depth to hang around w/ SAS for the full 48-minutes of the game. In the first H2H game between these two teams, I had one of my biggest plays of the season w/ CHI+8 and they won the game outright! However, note that SAS was playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, a b2b spot w/ their 2 previous games being against MIA & HOU – tough physical spot vs. rested CHI team! More importantly, please note for the Spurs’ starting lineup in that game: Parker + De Colo + Jeffers + Ayres + Duncan! Yep! The current Spurs’ team is healthy and they are prepared to have some revenge of that loss. I’m taking the Spurs for an easy win in a relatively high scoring game as I also expect CHI to score some points near the basket via Noah & Gibson. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 559 San Antonio Spurs (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 559/560 Over 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 02/09: Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Lakers

Chicago  at LA Lakers

NBA - 803 Chicago Bulls @ 804 Los Angeles Lakers Play #2 LAL is returning home after a 3-game road trip in which they were competitive. They’ve won their last 2 games @CLE & @PHI. However, this is not an extraordinary achievement because CLE is in a mess and PHI is...well, they are the 76ers… What really impressed me was the way the Lakers have been outrebounded lately: L5 games = amazing 43.4% reb/rate%! In those 2 wins, LAL had just 36.2% & 44.4% reb/rate%! They were able to win because their opponents simply wanted to “outgun” the Lakers and ended up taking 33 and 32 three pointers! This won’t happen today w/ CHI as they are ranked just #27 in 3pts attempted per game and their primary focus will be down low w/ Noah & Gibson! I’ve just confirmed that Boozer is out and Gibson will start in his place. I really expect CHI to crush LAL on the glass & near the basket in here vs. LAL rim defense that is allowing 68% FG at the rim L5 games. The first h2h between these two teams was a complete ball game w/ CHI winning in OT but note that LAL’s MVP was Pau Gasol: 8-15 FG for 20 pts, 19 reb, 5 blocks and 3 steals! This won’t happen today as Gasol is injured, and so I expect CHI to win by +6 pts and that’s why I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Chicago Bulls (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/25: Chicago Bulls @ Charlotte Bobcats

Chicago  at Charlotte

NBA - 501 Chicago Bulls @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats Play #1 Both teams are coming from “terrible” defensive performances last night.. CHA defense really didn’t have a chance against Carmelo Anthony… maybe they should have doubled him earlier in the game, but when they did indeed doubled Melo, it didn’t matter… On the other side, CHI defense was fulminated by an inspired Blake Griffin and a brigade of 3pts shooters… The good news for them is that tonight, both will bounce back defensively as this matchup favors a low scoring game. CHA is without Kemba Walker and without him, Al Jefferson has step up his game by scoring 22, 24 and 25 points in L3 games w/ nice FG%’s -> 32-60 FG 53.3%! The problem is that Big Al will have a tough matchup tonight against Noah & Gibson and w/ him having some problems to be efficient, CHA’s offense will struggle to score. CHI offense has been streaky lately...they are having good offensive performances vs. teams that don’t protect the rim well but this is not the case w/ CHA defense that is allowing 58% FG at the rim! CHI’s pace has been incredibly slow as of late and so, I expect this contest to be a pure half court game w/ both teams having problems to create “easy” points down low. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/22: Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Chicago  at Cleveland

NBA - 703 Chicago Bulls @ 704 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #3 This contest is going to be a brutal physical game… Both teams had relatively good spots lately to be involved in high scoring games… CHI has faced PHI & LAL in L2 games and they were able to score +100 points in those two games (even though last game vs. LAL went to OT), while CLE had the “luxury” to play vs. West. Teams in the L6 games – so basically all those games were fast paced contests in which CLE faced top offensive teams and their defense isn’t good enough to stop them. Tonight’s contest is going to be a typical half court battle b/c the first 3 h2h games were all slow paced affairs and I really don’t expect anything different for today… Just imagine the “frontcourt battle” between Deng + Thompson + Varejao vs. Butler + Gibson + Noah…yes, a lot of hustle but not that many offensive skills to score down low. This could be different @ backcourt b/c D.J. Augustin is shooting quite well in the last games (although I don’t think he is capable of sustain this kind of production) while K. Irving will have a notorious edge. CHI’s PG’s tonight (Augustin & Mike James). However, both teams have a hard time to generate good outside shots so in this potential half court pace, I expect this contest to be ugly game to watch and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 186.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 01/18: Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls

Philadelphia  at Chicago

NBA - 507 Philadelphia 76ers @ 508 Chicago Bulls Play #4 CHI is going to face a real tough physical spot for tonight’s contest. They had a brutal triple OT game vs. ORL this last Wednesday in which J. Butler played 60 minutes, Noah 49 minutes or Gibson 43 minutes, and last night they were involved in another close battle @WAS, so this is going to be their 3rd game in 4 nights w/ traveling in every game. This is not the case w/ PHI as they clearly lost vs. MIA last night in a game that basically was over already in the first half, and so, their coach decided to “rest” his best players for tonight’s game. PHI offense committed 23 TO’s vs. MIA which wasn’t a surprise for me b/c one of my key factors for my MIA-10 play was their aggressive ball handler pressure defense vs. PHI's offense prone to commit TO’s. Michael Carter-Williams struggled heavily w/ just 7 points & 5 TO’s against MIA’s defense: "I think they were changing up the defense a lot," said Carter-Williams, who nearly triple-doubled with nine steals vs. Miami in his season debut. "Last time, they were really hard hedging. This time, they mixed it up. I got confused sometimes. I just have to learn from it, be better prepared and adjust next time. The good news is that CHI’s defense doesn’t have the same aggressiveness vs. ball handler, and actually I expect MCW to have a decent offensive game vs. Hinrich and Augustin. PHI has been outgunned by their opponents who are taking advantage of PHI’s fast pace to torch them from the outside & transition, but the Bulls aren’t build to explore such PHI’s weaknesses – they are #3 “worst” fast break offensive team in the league w/ just 9.5 fast break pts per game. I’m not saying that PHI will win this contest but we are dealing w/ a blowout line and I expect PHI to be competitive in this particular matchup & bad physical spot for CHI. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Philadelphia 76ers (+8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 10/31: New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 501 New York Knicks @ 502 Chicago Bulls

Play #1

The Knicks faced the Bucks last night and they left a bad sign for tonight's game, considering that they will face the fired up Bulls. It was clear that the Knicks were on their last legs down the stretch yesterday and this isn't good news for them at all, as they will be on a back to back spot tonight. So, the physical conditions of the Knicks might become a key factor for this game, especially against a physical team like Chicago. I understand that the Knicks were up by 24 points early on the third quarter yesterday, but that was due to some very favorable factors. First of all, it's important to realize that Milwaukee won't be a quality team this season and things only got worse for them with starting Poing Guard Brandon Knight getting injured on the second minute of the game and with his usual back up Luke Ridnour out of the game with back spasms, Milwaukee was forced to unleash the rookie Nate Wolters. 

This was super favorable to the Knicks who put pressure on the Bucks' guards, something that allow them to force 24 turnovers! On the other hand, with Nate Wolters and Gary Neal on the backcourt, the Knicks' potential bad backcourt defense formed by the banged up Raymond Felton and the slow footed Pablo Prigioni wasn't explored in yesterday's game. Things will be completely different on tonight's game with the Knicks having to face Derrick Rose, who is coming from a poor performance against Miami, but where he looked really good physically. Raymond Felton tweaked his hamstring during yesterday's game, but managed to play through the injury. On the other hand, Pablo Prigioni also played yesterday through an illness. Therefore, these two players will have a nightmare matchup against Derrick Rose tonight!

Another reason that explains the Knicks' big lead yesterday was Larry Sanders getting into foul trouble early in the game and being able to play only 12 minutes. Without one of the best interior defenders in the league, Milwaukee got exposed and the Knicks scored 50 points in the paint, something really unusual for a jump shooting team. With Kenyon Martin still very far from being at 100% right now, Coach Mike Woodson used Andrea Bargnani almost always at the Center position. Once again, things will be completely different against Chicago imponent frontcourt unit tonight. On the 15/20 minutes that Bargnani will play at Center, the Knicks will get crushed on the boards battle by Taj Gibson. The Knicks managed to get a slight edge on boards last night, but they will get crushed tonight on this area.

Chicago's loss at Miami last Tuesday was humiliating, but there are certain things that need to be taken in consideration. Miami had a mega 17-0 run in the second quarter that allowed them to get a 37-18 advantage. However, that happened due to Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler being in foul trouble, something that made the Bulls' normally excellent perimeter defense struggle. In fact, if we look at the boxscore to the CHI +/- team points, we see that Deng had +6 and Butler +10! Tonight one of these two great defenders will guard Carmelo Anthony, while the Knicks will struggle as they won't be able to force so many turnovers or score in the paint like they did last night. The Knicks's second unit without the suspended J.R. Smith lacks scoring punch as well, so Chicago has all the necessary conditions to bounce back and get a double digit win tonight. I'm taking the Bulls in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Chicago Bulls (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 10/29: Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

NBA - 503 Chicago Bulls @ 504 Miami Heat

Play #2

Chicago looked really good on the preseason, mostly thanks to Derrick Rose returning in excellent form. He is showing a lot of aggressiveness on offense and going to the free throw line a lot. With Rose back, the Bulls are also scoring more points in transition, while Taj Gibson also surprised by being very confident on offense. Chicago is a much better team with Rose back and they went 8-0 on the preseason to show exactly that, while scoring 20, 15, 18, 11 and 13 fast break points on their last five games!

Joakim Noah is probable for this game and he is of course a much better solution on offense than Nazr Mohammed, especially regarding his flow on offense and passing skills. Looking at Miami's natural issues on rebounding due to their small lineups, Chicago will have a clear edge on offensive rebounding in here. However, the Heat also looked good on preseason with Dwyane Wade looking very well physically, helping the Heat in being an even more efficient offensive team. Of course they won't have an easy task against Chicago's elite defense, but I still believe Miami will do a good job on offense in here. Last season, the four regular season games between these two teams had totals lines of 189.5, 186, 186 and 190, so with Rose and Wade being at 100% right now, the totals line of 187 points is just too short. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Chicago Bulls NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

CHICAGO BULLS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	89.3	27
Offense	103.5	23
Defense	103.2	6
Rebound	51.4	5

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	47.0	29	eFG%	47.7	4
TO%	13.6	10	TO%	13.2	21
Reb%	29.4	5	Reb%	26.4	14
FT%	20.1	17	FT%	20.6	16

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	7-7	103.9	101.1
December	9-6	102.3	103.3
January	12-4	107.7	100.5
February	5-8	101.9	106.9
March	7-7	105.7	110.2
April	5-5	106.6	107.2

If there were any doubts that Coach Tom Thibodeau was an elite coach, they were all shredded with Chicago having a much better season than expected given the huge problems that they had with injuries throughout the whole season.

Of course that Derrick Rose was the big factor of the Bulls season by sitting out the whole year. However, that’s also true that there was a clear downgrade on the Bulls’ second unit in comparison with the previous season. They went from C.J. Watson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik to Nate Robinson, Marco Belinelli, Richard Hamilton, Taj Gibson and Nazr Mohammed! Still, the Bulls were competitive against every team in the league!

Chicago’s defense was always the main motive why they were so competitive and its decline on the second half of the season explains the team’s inconsistency with a 17-20 record since February 1. This inconsistency was quite clear in some “weird and unexpected” results like losing on Christmas Day at home against Houston by 97-120, the New Year’s Eve loss against the Bobcats, the 27-point blown lead against the Bucks and the 42-point loss to the Kings.

When Kirk Hinrich and Joakim Noah went down with injuries on the second half of the season, Chicago stopped being an elite defense and they started losing games to accessible opponents. However, it was still Chicago which stopped Miami’s legendary winning streak in March and the Knicks’ 13-game winning streak in April.

Chicago ended the regular season with the #5 seed on the East and they had a matchup against Brooklyn in the first round. Even with Noah being physically limited and without Luol Deng on the last two games of the series, the Bulls showed a great fighting spirit against the Nets and eventually won the Game 7 on the road, with a hobbled Joakim Noah having 12-17 FG, 24 points, 14 rebounds and 6 blocks!

Then against the Heat, Chicago surprised by winning the Game 1 of the series at Miami, but then with their lack of depth being exposed, especially on the backcourt, Miami eventually won the following four games of the series to sent the Bulls home.

Nothing can be negatively said to Chicago last season, considering the tough circumstances that they faced through the season. The whole Derrick Rose soap opera was extended throughout the whole season and he eventually didn’t play in a single game.

Offseason Report:

Derrick Rose’s return is enough reason for Chicago to be one of the off-season’s biggest winners, assuming that Rose gets back into a similar level to the one he showed prior to his injury.

The Bulls have a tight salary cap and so, they were limited to improve the team during the off-season. Marco Belinelli’s move to San Antonio forced Chicago to find a new perimeter player with some shooting range and so, they signed Mike Dunleavy.

It would be prudent for Chicago to find a proper backup for Joakim Noah, but that didn’t happen and the veteran Nazr Mohammed will be once again Noah’s backup this season.

NBA Premium Play 05/15: Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

NBA - 735 Chicago Bulls @ 736 Miami Heat

Projected Line: 177 points

The Game 3 of this series had a super slow pace of 83.6, more appropriate to Chicago's style, who managed to limit Miami's transition points, but the Heat's halfcourt offense was tremendous! They were a bit helped by the referees, but everything went great for Miami, even with Lebron James having a subpar game. The Bulls also limited Miami to 13-21 FG at the rim, so Miami's damage came from an area where it's tougher to shoot: 10-22 FG from 16-23 feet! The difference was that Chicago was competitive because they were hitting all the contested shots with 6-14 FG from 16-23 feet, while also making 7+9+7 treys! 

What happened on Game 4 was a brutal regression of the Bulls, who were unable to keep making those shots, with Nate Robinson shooting 0-12 FG! Coach Tom Thibodeau was so desperate for offense that he played Rip Hamilton 22 minutes, who hadn’t seen the floor since Game 6 of the Brooklyn series, in which he played a total of ten minutes. So Rip Hamilton played 22 minutes in a single game after playing ten minutes in a seven game series which included a triple overtime game. The weirdest part about it: Rip ended up as the Bulls’ third leading scorer.

I believe tonight's game will have a similar slow pace that Game 3 and 4 had. Chicago's defense has been doing a good job in limiting easy points down low since Joakim Noah got back into playing major minutes and this should happen tonight as well. So, the Heat will have to keep making long range shots if they want to have a decent offensive game tonight. On the other side, it will be tough for the Bulls to repeat such terrible offensive performance from Game 4, but the truth is that Miami's defense pressures very well the ball handler and Chicago doesn't have a good guard that can give them a nice offensive outcome. So, Chicago needs to crush the boards, but even on that they can't take a lot of risks, as they can get super exposed on their transition defense if they do that.

With just 1 day off to prepare tonight's game, I believe this will be a slow paced contest, with both defenses dominating. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735/736 Under 181 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/13: Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 727 Miami Heat @ 728 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: Miami by 4 points

The Game 3 of this series had a super slow pace as I expected: 83.6! After scoring 20 fast break points and forcing 19 turnovers in Game 2, Miami was forced to play a pure half court game in Game 3. They scored just 8 fast break points this time, while Chicago committed just 11 turnovers. The Bulls' interior defense was also much better in Game 3 by allowing the Heat to shoot just 13-21 FG at the rim, while they had shot 24-30 FG in Game 2! Miami was offensively great, even though Lebron James shot just 6-17 FG! On the other hand, Chicago's offense was decent with Carlos Boozer finally showing up with 10-16 FG and 21 points! The problem for the Bulls in Game 3 was that the refs conditioned them with lots of fouls that put them in foul trouble. This developed complaints from Chicago's media, coaches and players, so I believe the refs won't call as many fouls tonight.

Chicago hung in the score well in Game 3, but they got worn out down the stretch. That's normal considering they have a short rotation and things only got worse with Nazr Mohammed getting ejected. However, the Bulls had 2 days off to rest prior to tonight's game, so I expect this spot to help Chicago in being more competitive tonight. This kind of large spread gives value to the Bulls at home against any team. With the Bulls being more energized and playing on a half court game, they are a tough team, so I expect them to cover this large spread tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 728 Chicago Bulls (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/10: Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 717 Miami Heat @ 718 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: 184 points

Chicago's defensive strategy for Game 2 was totally crushed by the Heat, who were aggressive and completely outplayed the Bulls in all the four factors: eFG% 66.4% vs 41.4%; TO rate 18.5% vs 20.7%; Offensive rebounding 33.3% vs 26.7%; FT% rate 41.4% vs. 27.6%. In Game 1, it was evident that Chicago's gameplan of running back quickly to defense in order to prevent Miami's transition game. Thanks to that, the Bulls had just 9 offensive rebounds, with 7 of them coming from Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Their wings were more worried in running back to defense than crushing the boards and truth must be told, Miami scored just 9 fast break points with 5-12 FG and 0.93 PPP in transitions. What about in Game 2? Well, Miami crushed the Bulls with 20 fast break points and 8-12 FG + 1.25 PPP on transition plays! Not only the Heat killed the Bulls in transition, as they also completely outplayed on half court. The Bulls' rim defense has been great all season long (with Noah on court of course), but Miami shot 24-30 FG at the rim in Game 2! That's 80% FG!

It will be up to Chicago to minimize these damages tonight on Game 3 at least in one of these two areas if they want to be competitive tonight. Miami's ball pressure defense has been the key on this series, as they are creating a lot of turnovers that they are consequently using to score easy points. Chicago averaged a nice mark of 13.1 turnovers per game in the series against Brooklyn, but they committed 16 and 19 turnovers in the first two games of this series. Miami's strategy won't be any different tonight, but at least the Bulls should be better prepared to face the high pressure from Miami. On the other hand, Coach Thibodeau also needs to find a way to make Carlos Boozer somewhat relevant against Miami. In the four games of the regular season, Boozer was great against Miami with 19ppg, 54.4% FG and 15 rpg! But he has been useless on offense so far on this series! He needs to be more aggressive to help his team on offense.

I really believe Chicago will have tons of offensive problems on this series. They won't be able to crash the boards because if they do that, they will have lots of problems on their transition defense. So, I believe the Bulls will use the same gameplan tonight that they used on the first two games of the series. Miami's ball pressure defense will also continue. Chicago committed a lot of turnovers on the first two games of the series and even if they prevent that from happening tonight as well, Miami's pressure will put the Bulls constantly on a battle against the shot clock violation, something that will force them to take some bad shots. Chicago just can't generate a high number of shots down low due to this. They are now transformed into a jump shooting team, but without the proper players to be effective on that.

What I believe will change tonight will be Chicago's defense. The pace of the first two games of the series wasn't high, but the Bulls will try to slow it down even more to turn this game into a pure half court contest. Chicago wasn't ready to face such aggressiveness from Miami, something that not only allowed the Heat to shoot 9-18 3pts, as they were also able to shoot a ridiculous 80% FG at the rim. I believe Chicago will be able to stop the Heat in at least one of these two areas tonight, on a clear defensive bounce back from the Bulls. 

Considering Miami's offensive regression and Chicago's offensive struggles continuing tonight, I expect a low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Game Preview Article: Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls - Game 3

Game Preview Article: Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls - Game 3

Chicago's defensive strategy for Game 2 was totally crushed by the Heat, who were aggressive and completely outplayed the Bulls in all the four factors: eFG% 66.4% vs 41.4%; TO rate 18.5% vs 20.7%; Offensive rebounding 33.3% vs 26.7%; FT% rate 41.4% vs. 27.6%. In Game 1, it was evident that Chicago's gameplan of running back quickly to defense in order to prevent Miami's transition game. Thanks to that, the Bulls had just 9 offensive rebounds, with 7 of them coming from Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Their wings were more worried in running back to defense than crushing the boards and truth must be told, Miami scored just 9 fast break points with 5-12 FG and 0.93 PPP in transitions. What about in Game 2? Well, Miami crushed the Bulls with 20 fast break points and 8-12 FG + 1.25 PPP on transition plays! Not only the Heat killed the Bulls in transition, as they also completely outplayed on half court. The Bulls' rim defense has been great all season long (with Noah on court of course), but Miami shot 24-30 FG at the rim in Game 2! That's 80% FG!

It will be up to Chicago to minimize these damages tonight on Game 3 at least in one of these two areas if they want to be competitive tonight. Miami's ball pressure defense has been the key on this series, as they are creating a lot of turnovers that they are consequently using to score easy points. Chicago averaged a nice mark of 13.1 turnovers per game in the series against Brooklyn, but they committed 16 and 19 turnovers in the first two games of this series. Miami's strategy won't be any different tonight, but at least the Bulls should be better prepared to face the high pressure from Miami. On the other hand, Coach Thibodeau also needs to find a way to make Carlos Boozer somewhat relevant against Miami. In the four games of the regular season, Boozer was great against Miami with 19ppg, 54.4% FG and 15 rpg! But he has been useless on offense so far on this series! He needs to be more aggressive to help his team on offense.

NBA Premium Play 05/08: Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

NBA - 713 Chicago Bulls @ 714 Miami Heat

Projected Line: 190 points

The spot for Miami tonight is very good, as it generally is for home favorites in Game 2 who lost Game 1 straight-up. That was visible yesterday when the Knicks crushed the Pacers in the fourth quarter of Game 2, after having lost Game 1. The Bulls won the first game of this series, after Miami missed a lot of wide open shots. There are no miracles and the Bulls's backcourt defense with Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli isn't as good as their defense with Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. 

Miami took a "wait-and-see" approach in Game 1, especially with Lebron James passing the ball a lot, but with the Heat's shooters missing almost everything. Miami has been an elite 16-23 feet shooting team, but they shot just 4-14 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-24 3pts on the Game 1 of this series. The Bulls were especially good in running back to defense and prevent Miami from scoring a lot in transition. But still, the Heat trapped the Bulls's ball handlers so well that they forced 16 turnovers, something that resulted in 22 points off turnovers to Miami.

Tonight I expect Miami to be much more focused. They should have a good ball movement once again that will generate easy looks, something that will continue happening as long as Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich keep being out of this series. I believe the Heat will have a better shooting efficiency than they had in Game 1, while they will also be more aggressive and therefore get more free throw attempts. I also believe Miami will try to play at a faster pace tonight, as if they are playing small ball with the Bulls, it's better for them to play at a faster pace.

On the other hand, Chicago's offense looked good in Game 1 and their 35 points in the fourth quarter were legit! There was no "hero ball". They played well and had an excellent playcaling. Chicago has a nice rebounding edge on this series and they should be able to score well down low with Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer tonight. With Nate Robinson also making some tough shots as usual, I expect the Bulls to keep showing tonight their consistent outside shooting with Nate Robinson, Marco Belinelli and Jimmy Butler. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/04: Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets

NBA - 555 Chicago Bulls @ 556 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: 178 points

We have tonight the only Game 7 of the first round of the playoffs this season between Brooklyn and Chicago. I believe this will be a nervous game, while being a quite physical one and with both defenses winning the battle over the opposing offenses. The last three games of this series were all high scoring games. Note that the pace of the games continued being quite slow, but the offensive ratings were incredible and this is why so many points were scored. However, for tonight's game, I believe the slow pace will happen once again tonight, but this time offenses will struggle a bit.

The Game 6 was already a good indicator of that, as while we had 114 points scored during the first half, the second half had just 73 points. Both teams had two days off to rest between the Game 5 and 6 and with fresh legs, both offenses were super sharp in the first half, especially Joe Johnson who scored 13 points and looked decent while moving around- The problem for him was on the second half where he had 4 points in the 3rd quarter and 0 points in the 4th quarter! After the game, he seemed completely worn out and banged up, so I don't believe he has fully recovered with just 1 day off. Joakim Noah's health seems improved right now and he played 43 minutes in Game 6. These are bad news for Brook Lopez, who will have more problems to score against him. He is coming from 7-18 FG and 3 rebounds in Game 6, far from the dominant numbers he had been having throughout this series.

Chicago had several banged up players on Game 6 like Nate Robinson and Taj Gibson, besides being without Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. However, the Bulls's defense was still impeccable during the second half. Even though the Bulls are still far from being 100% healthy, their defensive pride is huge and so, I expect them to have another good defensive performance tonight. Their problem is that their offense is going to struggle. Brooklyn isn't committing turnovers and they are coming back quickly to defense. This is why the Bulls scored just 9 and 8 fast break points on the last two games of the series. Besides some good numbers from Carlos Boozer, we are dealing with a team that is shooting an absurd number of 16-23 feet jumpers. They were being efficient in doing that, but they wouldn't be able to keep doing that forever and they struggled on Game 6 with just 6-26 FG! We are dealing with a team that used their starters for 42, 43, 46, 48 and 33 minutes on Game 6! Carlos Boozer played just 33 minutes because he was in foul trouble or he would also have played more than 40 minutes. Chicago with tired legs won't have the physical form to hit their jumpers and so, they will have to compensate once again on defense.

Therefore, I expect a super low scoring game in here tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 555/556 Under 182 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 05/02: Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 539 Brooklyn Nets @ 540 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: Brooklyn by 3 points
We have a lot of injury problems for tonight's game. Joe Johnson said that he is playing on one leg, but that he is playing:

"I’m basically just a decoy, spot-up shooter. I can’t really do a whole lot," he said

Reggie Evans has a flu and wasn't at practice, but he will be ready to fly to play tonight. Andray Blatche's right calf is sore, but he hopes it will be 90 percent by tonight. On the other hand, Kirk Hinrich has been ruled out of tonight's game with a calf injury. That's a huge blow for Chicago, who will now have to rely on Nate Robinson to play heavy minutes at the PG position. Hinrich's absence will also impact the Bulls's defense, as Hinrich has been amazing on defending Deron Williams throughout this series. Luol Deng and Taj Gibson are both game-time decisions due to illness. Suddenly, the Bulls are shorthanded with all these injury problems.

Nate Robinson is coming from a team-high 44 minutes on Game 5 and with Kirk Hinrich still out, Deron Williams will have a clear edge at the PG position tonight. The problem isn't exactly the 1*1 matchup between Nate and Deron, but the way Chicago's help defense is forced to compensate Nate's lack of size. Luol Deng is forced to defend Deron Williams and so, he gets too exhausted to perform on offense. On the other hand, in order to avoid Deron Williams from attacking the rim, the Bulls's frontcourt is forced to get away from the basket to help Nate. The result of that puts the Bulls in a struggling position for the boards battle. This is why Brooklyn had 17 offensive rebounds on Game 5, with Brook Lopez getting 6 offensive boards on his own!

Perhaps thanks to a healthier frontcourt, the Nets have won the boards battle on the last two games of this series by grabbing 52.02% and 57.32% of the rebounds on those games. Brook Lopez has been the only player on this series that he is being consistent on offense and with Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson limited plus Nazr Mohammed being too old and slow to defend him, the same should happen today with Lopez dominating. Nate Robinson's presence on the backcourt will also force the Bulls's frontcourt to give extra help on the outside, allowing Brook to have more space down low.

On the other side, Chicago's offense has been very perimeter-based, with some "hero ball" from Nate Robinson plus long-range jumpers from Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler, an area where they aren't assertive. So far on this series, Chicago has been shooting quite well from the worst possible area to shoot (16-23 feet), but that's a dangerous style to have in comparison to Brook Lopez's domination on the down low. I see the Nets having more chances than the Bulls to win tonight's game and so, I'll be taking them in here tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 539 Brooklyn Nets (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker