NBA Free Premium Play 04/14: Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers

Boston  at Philadelphia

NBA - 501 Boston Celtics @ 502 Philadelphia 76ers ***FREE Premium Play*** In this contest, I expect the 76ers to have more “desire” to win than the Celtics... BOS’s record is 25-55 and with the Jazz facing the Lakers tonight, this could be a “key” game for the Celtics “tanking” race while the 76ers will end w/ the second worst record in the league. Note that there are several Celtics’ players that will miss this contest… The 76ers have been more competitive lately. Their Off. Rtg. In L5 games is a nice 110.6 mark as they are attacking the rim quite well. This bodes well for them tonight because the Celtics’ interior defense has been non-existent lately – they are allowing 49 points in the paint in L6 games! Also, not long time ago, the 76ers went to BOS and won the game outright despite being underdogs by double digits points! My fair line for this contest is PHI-1 and so, we have the proper edge to play the 76ers in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Philadelphia 76ers (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 04/05: Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons

Boston  at Detroit

NBA - 807 Boston Celtics @ 808 Detroit Pistons Play #2 I understand that it seems a bit excessive to release a play w/ DET being favored by 6 points vs. anyone in the NBA, but in my opinion, we are getting some value as my fair line is actually DET-9/-10. I had a small lean w/ DET last night vs. BKN as I expected them to completely dominate the glass vs. undersized Nets’ team, and indeed they crushed them by having an impressive 68.6% reb/rate% & 19-2 edge in offensive boards. The problem was that DET’s awful perimeter defense got torched by the Nets w/ 15-31 3pts. The Nets’ Power Forwards’ Pierce & Teletovic completely killed them by hitting 9-16 from 3pts, while exposing DET’s frontcourt pair Drummond & Monroe on the defensive end. The good news for today is that they will face a Celtics’ team playing without R. Rondo & A. Bradley. Unlike BKN, BOS is really struggling shooting from long range! In L5 games, they had a dismal 23% mark behind the line – worst mark in the league! Without Rondo, the Celtics’ offense doesn’t have the same “flow” and they don’t have shooters as well. It looks like. K. Humphries is OUT as well for tonight and most likely, BOS will start w/ Bass & Sullinger… two undersized frontcourt players that will have some problems vs. DET’s frontcourt size! While DET’s bad perimeter defense won’t be exposed by BOS, I expect DET to control the glass and score some easy points in transition vs. a Celtics team that suddenly stopped in getting back to the defense (L3 games they have allowed 26, 21 and 10 fast break points!). Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 808 Detroit Pistons (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/19: Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

Miami  at Boston

NBA - 603 Miami Heat @ 604 Boston Celtics ***FREE Premium Play*** It was “weird” to watch the Heat had some problems down the stretch @CLE last night even after LeBron James went off in the first quarter w/ 25 points! There is a clear problem of lack of fluidity and continuity with the Heat right now… LeBron James played 42 minutes and Bosh 39 minutes, so this isn’t a good spot for MIA – b2b games on the road! We can be pretty sure that the Celtics will be fired up for this contest! Rondo and Bradley are all already confirmed to be in the starting lineup and they know how to play vs. MIA. I expect Bradley to be a tough defensive matchup for D. Wade while Rondo will setup his teammates down low. BOS’s offensive rebounding has been pretty solid w/ their frontcourt unit of Bass, Humphries, Sullinger & Olynyk and for tonight, I expect the Celtics to control the glass with some ease vs. MIA. Eventually, the Heat will take the game over down the stretch but we are dealing w/ 7-pts spread line and I’m taking the Celtics to be competitive in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 604 Boston Celtics (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 02/26: Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

Atlanta  at Boston

NBA - 703 Atlanta Hawks @ 704 Boston Celtics Play #1 ATL might be shorthanded right now, but they are playing hard and last night they could have defeated the Bulls if not some late TO’s (fortunately for us!). Obviously, ATL is being crushed by their opponents on the glass… they had only 46% reb/rate% vs. CHI while CHI’s frontcourt were great offensively w/ Boozer 8-14 FG, Noah 9-13 FG e Gibson 5-12 FG. Despite all the injuries, ATL’s offense has been pretty decent as their perimeter is producing at a decent level due to their great ball movement – ATL is shooting 44.5% from 3pts in L5 games! For this contest against the Celtics…the X factor IMO is that BOS don’t have the proper players and/or depth to pound ATL’s down low. BOS’s best post up player J. Sullinger is OUT for tonight…. Kelly Olynyk will miss the game as well and even Vitor Faverani is OUT! I really don’t think that B. Bass & K. Humphries are skilled enough on the post to torch the Hawks tonight… On the other end, BOS is a bit of shorthanded @ backcourt and this is where ATL’s really excels right now… R. Rondo isn’t playing @100% (especially on the defensive end) and my fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 game. BOS is in full “tanking mode” and they shouldn’t be favored in this contest IMO! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Atlanta Hawks (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/29: Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

Philadelphia  at Boston

NBA - 705 Philadelphia 76ers @ 706 Boston Celtics Play #3 My play w/ PHI+5 last Monday against the Suns really didn’t have a chance once the game started, as PHX offense was just too much for PHI. However, note that offensively, PHI was able to explore PHX’s undersized frontcourt and scored 56 points while they were effective on transition w/ 19 fast break points & 9-15 FG 1.23 PPP. Their problem obviously was on the defensive end because PHX’s guards Dragic + Green simply couldn’t miss a shot: 9-13 FG & 10-12 FG w/ combining 7-9 3pts and PHX as a team = 9-20 3pts for 45% mark. The good news for today is that PHI will face a Celtics team that is struggling to hit outside shots right now. Against the awful perimeter D of NYK last night, BOS went just 6-22 3pts and actually, they are shooting just 27.6% 3pts in L10 games (ranked dead last in the league), so PHI’s defense won’t be crushed in the same way they were vs. PHX. BOS defense has been getting worst as the season progresses… they are allowing 45 points in the paint in L5 games & 65% FG at the rim.  Something quite normal if we just look for their starting lineup @NYK last night: Rondo, Green, Wallace, Bass and Sullinger – no interior defense and so, PHI’s offense will be able to attack the rim and generate some easy points. Rondo is OUT for tonight and BOS is really shorthanded on the wings & this is a back to back game! I expect this contest to be a tight game and therefore, we have some value w/ PHI+4 in my opinion. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Philadelphia 76ers (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/22: Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards

Boston  at Washington

NBA - 701 Boston Celtics @ 702 Washington Wizards Play #1 Last night, the Celtics accomplished the rare feat of being competitive against an elite team despite being despite shooting 39.3% from the field vs. 51.4% FG from the Heat! Why? You may ask…the answer is pretty obvious: BOS completely owned the Heat on the glass w/ 60.1% rebounding/rate% (w/ a huge 17-7 edge on offensive boards), so they were able to generate extra possessions. However, this was not a surprise because MIA is really an awful rebounding team (that was missing their #3 best rebounder of the team – yes, it is D. Wade!), and more importantly, they were dead tired by playing their 4th game in 5 days. Still, as expected, BOS really couldn’t hit shots from the outside w/ just 5-27 3pts and unfortunately for them, A. Bradley got injured and will miss tonight’s game while after playing 26 minutes last night, I don’t think R. Rondo will play tonight. That will leave BOS with only rookie P. Pressey as their only “true guard” for tonight’s contest. On the other side, WAS will try for the fifth time this season to have a better +0.500 record: “In its four previous chances to eclipse the .500 mark, Washington lost to Detroit twice, along with Milwaukee and Dallas. Three of those games were at home, as will this matchup against a Celtics team that has lost its last 10 road contests.” "Every time we talk about being a .500 team and finally getting over .500, we have teams coming in here and just punking our butts," Gortat said. "We're done with that. We just have to focus on what we need to do to win a game." WAS easily dismantled the 76ers in the last game...although the score may not say it, the game really was never close as WAS was winning 100-79 w/ 6 minutes to go. I expect John Wall to have a tremendous edge vs. a depleted BOS’s backcourt while I really don’t expect a tired BOS frontcourt to grab 60% of all available rebounds vs. a pretty decent defensive rebounding team like WAS – ranked #10 in the league w/ 75.6% def.reb/rate%. My fair line for this contest is the Wizards to be favored by 12 points and therefore, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Washington Wizards (-9) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 01/21: Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

Boston  at Miami

NBA - 501 Boston Celtics @ 502 Miami Heat Play #1 The key question for this contest: will MIA bounce back defensively after such embarrassing effort last night? "We scored enough points to win, so obviously it was defense," James said. "Especially in the first half." On my recap article of that game, I’ve said: “However since 01/January, MIA has allowed 122.8 Off. Rtg to GSW at home; 123.0 Off. Rtg to NYK on the road; 130.0 Off. Rtg to WAS last week and yesterday, they allowed 127.5 Off. Rtg to the Hawks – this is a really a bad trend for them!” Analyzing all those games/losses, there is a common factor...just look for MIA’s opponents numbers from 3pts land: GSW 15-29 3pts NYK 9-24 3pts WAS 10-22 3pts ATL 12-31 3pts Those teams combined to hit 46-106 3pts - a 43.4% mark! The good news for them is that BOS is one of the worst 3pts teams in the league – ranked #27 w/ 33.2%; L10 games = ranked #28 w/ 28.9% or L5 games = ranked #29 w/ 25.0% 3pts! BOS offense will need some time to adjust to Rondo’s presence and MIA has the perfect spot to have a decent defensive game. On the other side, BOS backcourt defense w/ Rondo & Bradley is quite decent but more importantly, I don’t think that MIA is in a good spot to put an offensive show – this will be their 4th game in 5 days (the first time this season that MIA is having such bad physical spot). Therefore, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game and that's why I'm taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/31: Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

Atlanta  at Boston

NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Boston Celtics Play #1 Since Al Horford got injured, Atlanta's offense started being super perimeter based. On their last game at Orlando, Atlanta had a volume of 24% on pick and roll ball handler plays and 27% on spot ups. However, the Hawks are expected to find some problems today against Boston's decent perimeter defense that is #14 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #4 on spot up defense. On the other hand, Boston's offense is using a lot of pick and roll ball handler plays lately as well. However, they also keep having a nice post up, as Boston has a quite big backcourt. These are areas where Atlanta's defense is struggling. The aggressiveness of Boston's guards will be a huge problem for Atlanta's backcourt defense, as both Louis Williams and Kyle Korver won't be able to prevent the Celtics's dribble penetrations With the Hawks being so perimeter oriented and the Celtics having some nice edges on offense for today, I believe Boston will be able to pick up a comfortable win today, as they are also #5 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.8% allowed. Therefore, I'm taking Boston today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Boston Celtics (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 12/06: Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics

Denver  at Boston

NBA - 809 Denver Nuggets @ 810 Boston Celtics Denver is now 0-3 on the second night of a back to back after losing to the Cavaliers last Wednesday. Ty Lawson was awful by shooting 1-13 from the field and the Nuggets were outrebounded by the Cavaliers 58-43. By allowing 20 offensive boards, the Nuggets couldn’t go out in transition like they wanted and this helps to explain their lowly 88-points outcome. Tonight they will face the Celtics on the road on a pretty favorable matchup for them. Boston's defense has been decent, but a bit overrated due to the fact they have been facing plenty of Eastern Conference teams. Their mindset is to lock down the opposing perimeter game, but they are exposed near the basket with their undersized and inexperienced frontcourt. I understand that they are ranked #11 in the league allowing 59% FG at the rim, but when they faced elite teams that generate easy points near the basket, the Celtics struggled in this area. On their last game they allowed John Henson to shot 4-8 FG, Ekpe Udoh 4-7 FG, Ersan Ilyasova 3-5 FG and even Zaza Pachulia 3-5 FG. Against Western conference teams this season, they allowed Memphis to score 95 and 100 points, Portland 109, Houston 109 and San Antonio 104 points! Denver will be able to score plenty of easy points against the Celtics who are as well a poor defensive rebounding team, so I expect an offensive bounce back game from them tonight. Boston has been shooting well from long range except a terrible 4-19 3pts performance at Milwaukee in a back to back game, so they should generate some points against the Nuggets as well, however the Nuggets as a top team from the West is vastly superior than this Celtics team and I think they will win with some ease. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Over and the Nuggets in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809 Denver Nuggets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/06: Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics

Utah  at Boston

NBA - 509 Utah Jazz @ 510 Boston Celtics Play #3 It's already known that Utah doesn't have a lot of offensive talent on the perimeter. So, it's not surprising that they shot 5-17, 4-22 and 4-18 3pts on their last three games, as they are really weak on shooting treys, excluding Gordon Hayward. Their strength is on the frontcourt and on their ability to grab offensive rebounds and score second chance points. Yesterday against Brooklyn's super big lineup, who was smart in packing the paint, Utah's offense struggled badly to score down low, ending the game with just 26 points in the paint and a ridiculous 7-22 FG near the basket! Brooklyn had merit in that by being a super tough matchup for the Jazz. On the other side, Utah's frontcourt was pounded by Brook Lopez who crushed them with 10-13 FG, 7-9 FT and 27 points in just 25 minutes! The good news is that this blowout win of the Nets allowed Utah to rest their key players for tonight's game at Boston. So, it's important to know how Boston's interior defense has been playing regarding paint defense and defensive rebounding. The best news for Utah is that the Celtics are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league so far with a very poor 66.1% defensive rebound rate! Their opponents are averaging 15 offensive rebounds per game against them and so, the Jazz will have plenty of second chance points tonight. Boston is allowing 44.5 points in the paint this season and if we look at their frontcourt formed by Faverani, Bass, Olynyk and Sullinger, I believe that Utah with Kanter and Favors will have a mega edge on this area tonight. On the other side, Boston's offense has been struggling a lot due to their lack of talent. This is why they had just 15, 13, 15 and 14 assists on their first four games of the season! If we exclude their game against Milwaukee, Boston scored very few points in the paint, while their outside shooting isn't good at all as well. This line of five points is too high for Utah, as even though the Jazz are on a back to back spot tonight, Utah didn't make a big effort yesterday. So, their edge on rebounding and frontcourt will make this game at least quite competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking Utah in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Utah Jazz (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Boston Celtics NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

BOSTON CELTICS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	91.7	16
Offense	103.1	24
Defense	103.3	7
Rebound	46.0	29

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	50.3	12	eFG%	48.2	6
TO%	14.1	23	TO%	14.2	9
Reb%	20.1	30	Reb%	26.7	19
FT%	20.4	14	FT%	21.6	23

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	9-7	107.0	106.4
December	5-9	102.1	106.7
January	8-7	103.3	99.9
February	8-4	107.8	102.9
March	8-8	105.4	105.4
April	3-5	109.2	108.5

Even though they had no depth and that Ray Allen was completely physically limited, the Celtics were one home win away to reach the 2012 NBA Finals over the Heat, until “that performance” from LeBron James happened in the Game 6 and the Celtics ended up being eliminated in a grueling 7-game series.

Once again the Celtics showed an incredible inconsistency in the regular season, but as soon as the playoffs started, they showed how dangerous they are despite having an aging core of player. GM Danny Ainge wasn’t ready to quit on them and he spent the offseason trying to fix one of their biggest problems: their lack of depth! Ainge “let” Ray Allen go to Miami (actually it was Ray who decided to join the Heat by refusing one better last offer from the Celtics), but he got several serviceable players in Jason Terry and Courtney Lee to replace Ray Allen, Leandro Barbosa as Rajon Rondo’s backup, Jeff Green was back after taking the previous season off due to a heart problem, while Ainge drafted Jared Sullinger, who was quickly appointed as a “draft steal”, even though he had some red flags regarding his health around him.

As soon as the regular season started and even though they had some renewed hype (the oddsmakers gave them a 50.5 regular season wins line – 2^nd highest in the East), we basically saw the same old Celtics from the previous season once again: a mediocre team that could beat the best teams in the league, but at the same time they could also lose twice to Charlotte, including a 74-100 blowout loss!

Boston’s biggest problem was well documented: their offense was too predictable and it was declining pretty fast as well. Just take a look at some historical data:

Decling Offense vs Elite Defense
	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
2007-08	110.2	11	98.9	2
2008-09	110.5	6	102.3	2
2009-10	107.7	15	103.8	5
2010-11	106.2	18	100.3	2
2011-12	101.0	27	98.2	1
2012-13	103.1	24	103.3	7

Doc Rivers was able to make his team a Top 10 defensive team in every season since the Big Three Era started, even though Kevin Garnett played at the Center position the last two seasons, but on offense the scenario was completely different, as Boston went from being a quite good offensive team into outright awful over the last two seasons.

Boston was the league’s worst offensive rebounding team, so their offensive sets were mostly “one and done” plays. They were a subpar team in handling the ball as well, despite having an elite PG and they just couldn’t score in the paint (#27 with 38.1 points/game). The combination of all these factors could only result into a really poor offensive team.

The Celtics were known for being a clutch team with a head coach who was seen as being great down the stretch by drawing some excellent clutch plays. However, the Celtics lost too many close games in January: 99-100 in an OT game against Chicago; 90-95 at Cleveland; 86-89 against the NY Knicks; 111-123 in double OT against Atlanta, even though they had a 27-points lead at one point in that game!

But the biggest problem in that game wasn’t that the Celtics couldn’t secure a 27-points lead. It was Rajon Rondo’s injury! The Celtics looked doomed for the season, but they actually bounced back quite well by winning 14 of their following 18 games. As weirder as it may look, the key for that good run of the Celtics was their improved offense! Boston averaged an offensive rate of 104.0 with Rondo, but in those 18 games, they averaged an offensive rate of 106.6! The Celtics suddenly became less predictable on offense that was something that surprised the league in the short term.

But once the league caught the “new look” of the Celtics, they got back into struggling on offense and with a couple of other season ending injuries, Boston ended the regular season with a 41-40 record, the #7 place in the East and a matchup against the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs.

Despite all the effort that Danny Ainge did on the offseason, the lack of depth proved to be once again the biggest factor for the Celtics’ loss in six games in that series against the Knicks. This problem was highlighted immediately on the Game 1 of the series when a tired Boston team was held to just 8 points in the 4^th quarter, with their bench providing a “solid” zero points for them! Eventually Boston got some nice momentum in the middle of the series with wins in Games 4 and 5, but they couldn’t recover from a 0-3 deficit and lost the series by 2-4.

NBA 05/03 Free Premium Play: New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics

New York  at Boston

NBA - 545 New York Knicks @ 546 Boston Celtics Projected Line: 185 points What happened on Game 5 was something that can be considered as a "too easy" spot for the Knicks. Everything started prior to the game. The Knicks had lost Game 4 at Boston on overtime, on a game where J.R. Smith didn't play due to suspension. So, with J.R. back, the Knicks thought they would easily win Game 5 and end the series. The NY team started the game with a 11-0 lead and that only increased the Knicks's relax spot. The Celtics are now avoiding well their moments of no-offense that they had at the start of this series, with Jason Terry now coming off the bench with success. Boston's offense is based on their spot up shooting, with a volume of 24.70%, 29.00%, 36.80%, 26.20% and 26.10%! What's clear is that their effectiveness has considerably increased throughout this series with 0.57, 0.46, 0.89, 1.15 and 1.29 PPP! So, I believe the Celtics's offense will continue their good trend on this series and reach the 90's points tonight. But the big change in comparison to Game 5 will be on the Knicks's offense. The NY team have a huge edge on offense on this series, as everytime Raymond Felton tries to penetrate into the basket, he makes some easy layups. Boston is too slow to stop Felton and so, either Felton makes an easy layup or he passes the ball to an open team mate. But what will change tonight for the Knicks are the performances of Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith. J.R.'s mindset on Game 5 was quite evident. He tried to redeem himself after being suspended on Game 4. He forced his shots too much and he made his team struggle a lot on offense because of that. Carmelo tried to compensate J.R.'s lack of shooting success and he ended up struggling as well. I believe both players will be much better tonight, with Carmelo being more aggressive in deeper post positions, while J.R. will be more assertive. Game 5 ended with 178 points, but as I expect the Celtics to continue their good trend on offense and the Knicks to bounce back offensively tonight, I see this game going Over the total posted. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 545/546 Over 181 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 05/01: Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks

NBA - 531 Boston Celtics @ 532 New York Knicks

Projected Line: NY Knicks by 5 points

I don't expect Boston to be just competitive during the first half tonight, like it happened on the two games the Celtics played at New York on this series. Doc Rivers's decision of starting Brandon Bass instead of Jason Terry, something that worked in both ways. Finally, Terry had a nice game coming off the bench with 7-10 FG, 18 points and 4 assists, while giving the team scoring punch coming off the bench, something the Celtics were needing a lot. On the other hand, with Brandon Bass on the floor, the Celtics can really stop the Knicks's offense, as they rotate extremely well and due to the fact that they are an undersized unit, they are able to go toe-to-toe with the Knicks's undersized lineup. Of course the Knicks didn't have J.R. Smith on the last game of this series, who massively helped his team on the first three games of this series with good shooting, but the problem of the Knicks's offense is their ball movement, as they had 13, 14 and 10 assists in three of the first four games of this series. The result of that is a lot of ISO ball that the Celtics can defend well. 

The problem for Boston has been on their offense. However, I believe they will surprise everybody on tonight's game. If you've watched this series, you've probably heard Doc Rivers by now yelling "trust the offense" and "quicken the pace" at his team in various "Wired" segments. Boston had 19 transition plays on the last game of this series, while making some changes that gave more importance to Jason Terry, something that worked quite well for them. The Celtics dominated Game 4, if we exclude a key run for the Knicks during the 3rd quarter, where Brandon Bass (5 PF), Kevin Garnett (4 PF) and Jeff Green (4 PF) were all in foul trouble. In fact, it's easy to realize that the Knicks's run happened with Garnett on the bench, as the Celtics outscored the Knicks by 16 points with Garnett on the floor! Even though almost everybody is expecting the Knicks to crush the Celtics tonight like they've done it on the first two games of this series, Boston made some nice adjustments on the last game that should allow them to be very competitive tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Boston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 531 Boston Celtics (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA 04/28 Free Premium Play: New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics

New York  at Boston

NBA - 509 New York Knicks @ 510 Boston Celtics Projected Line: Boston by 2 points I believe Boston will show some pride and avoid getting swept on this series today. JR Smith is suspended for today's game and this is a huge blow for the Knicks, who lose one of their main shooters and the NY team is pretty much being an exclusively jump-shooting team on this series. In Game 3, the Knicks had just 8 FT attempts and 32 points in the paint, but of course a great 40.7% 3pts. However, most of those shots were contested and without JR Smith on the floor today, Carmelo Anthony will be the only player who can hit these contested shots. Boston was a much more aggressive team than the Knicks in the Game 3 of this series. They had a rebounding edge (Tyson Chandler has been pretty much a ghost so far on this series), they also had an edge in points at the paint and in free throw attempts. The problem for the Celtics is that they have been missing a lot of layups, while committing also an impressive number of turnovers. The good news is that these absurd misses and turnovers are easily correctable and so, I expect the Celtics to pick up a nice win today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Boston Celtics (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker