NBA 2014-15 Regular Season: Golden State Warriors

DISCLAIMER: This article is more for “entertainment” purposes rather than handicapping purposes. The limits on my kind of bets is too small and if you have the conviction that a specific team is going to exceed expectations in the upcoming NBA season, it’s a lot better to bet consistently on that team in the games throughout the season. Therefore, this article is just the purpose of talking about a “fun bet” and also preview some teams.

Golden State Warriors

The sportsbooks put the Warriors’ season total wins line at the same level of their regular season record last year: 51-31! So, the key question for the Warriors is easy to formulate: will Golden State do better this season than they did last season? In my opinion, this will be a clear yes!

First of all, Golden State really deserved a better record last season than 51-31, as if we use the Pythagorean wins-losses, the Warriors should have had a 54-28 record last season. Under the wing of Mark Jackson, Golden State had an underrated defense, as they were ranked #4 in the league with a 102.6 defensive rate. This is exactly the best thing Mark Jackson did as the Warriors’ coach, while this will be Steve Kerr’s biggest challenge this season. However, I can’t simply ignore that Mark Jackson had at his disposal Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in the roster. With these quality individual defenders available, this helped the team’s defensive system a lot!

If I think the defense will remain pretty much at the same level this season, I believe that Golden State will suffer great improvements on offense. Having in account that Golden State ended last season as the #4 best team in the league in 3pts% with a nice 38%, it’s incredible how the Warriors’ had a “mediocre” offense by being just #12 in the league with 107.5 offensive rates. This was where Mark Jackson did a bad coaching job last season that probably cost his job. I can’t forget the several times that I witnessed Mark Johnson ordering post up plays for Harrison Barnes when he had a small defender on him, ignoring the fact that Barnes is still very raw offensively. The result of that was Barnes losing all his confidence and having a poor sophomore season.

Now with Steve Kerr as the team’s coach, I expect them to have a huge leap on offense! Of course Kerr lacks experience as a coach, but I like his ideas for the team in the upcoming season. The Warriors also signed coach Alvin Gentry to Kerr’s coaching staff and this gives me enough confidence to think that Golden State will definitely have a sharper offense this season. This won’t be a surprise, as Golden State’s frontcourt has Andrew Bogut, David Lee and Andre Iguodala, who are all good passers and therefore, the Warriors’s starting unit has all the conditions to have an excellent ball movement.

Injuries can always be a problem and the truth is that Andrew Bogut missed 15 games last season, while Andre Iguodala and David Lee missed 19 and 13 games respectively. However, the Warriors were still a competitive team even with these injuries. The Warriors added Shaun Livingston to their roster and this will give Steve Kerr more flexibility on the lineups, as Livingston is a plus defender and his size will cause matchup problems to their opponents.

Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Golden State has 55 wins on this upcoming regular season and ends up fighting for home court edge in the first round of the playoffs.

NBA Free Premium Play 03/22: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

San Antonio  at Golden State

NBA - 515 San Antonio Spurs @ 516 Golden State Warriors Play #3 Even when the Spurs couldn’t shoot from the outside (5-25 3pts), they were able to score 99 points @SAC last night mostly because they didn’t commit TO’s (just 9) and went 27x to the FT line. The Spurs held the Kings to just 79 points last night for their best defensive performance from a while but they were dealing with a selfish team that that is averaging 16 assists per game in L4 games. Tonight’s contest will feature two of the best passing teams in the league right now and so, I expect them to create plenty of good looking shots. GSW is averaging 25 assists per game in L9 games, they are also hitting 10 treys per game in L7 and their transition game has been super solid. I don’t have to speak much of the Spurs…their offensive flow is incredible and their continuity between first and second units is unique in the NBA. Most likely, Duncan won’t play tonight and usually, the Spurs plays “faster” without him! GSW will catch the Spurs in a b2b spot, so I expect them to push the pace and wear down the Spurs so we are dealing w/ a potential run and gun game, and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors

Dallas  at Golden State

NBA - 563 Dallas Mavericks @ 564 Golden State Warriors Play #7 Both teams are playing well and surprisingly, defense has been the X factor for both teams as of late. DAL has lost 3 straight games vs. CHI, SAS & DEN but they bounced back nicely in L2 games vs. POR & IND primarily because they were solid defensively in both games. After allowing 100, 112 & 115 points, the Mavs allowed just 98 & 94 in the L2 games. Dalembert is now getting more playing time while D. Harris has been a great factor for DAL in both ends of the floor. On the other end, GSW is really one of the best defensive teams in the league! They had some huge problems vs. PHX in the first half but HC Mark Jackson adjusted after the half time by playing “smaller” lineups and GSW crushed the Suns in the 3rd quarter w/ 38-17 score. Going for this contest, we have two teams that are committing few TO’s as of late – DAL = 11.6% TO/rate since the All star break vs. 11.3% from GSW! Also, we are dealing w/ two teams that have subpar FT/attempted per game numbers – both have FT/rate less than 20% since the all star break, so basically, we are dealing w/ two “pure” jump shooting teams. However, GSW is allowing just 29.7% from 3pts in L10 games - #2 best mark in the league! On the other end, S. Curry is banged up right now and clearly not playing @100%, so DAL defense have some room to defend GSW. The fact that the first 2 H2H’s games between these two teams ended up being “low scoring” games is not a coincidence, and w/ 209 pts line, I feel that we are dealing w/ inflated line in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 563/564 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 03/02: Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors

Golden State  at Toronto

NBA - 803 Golden State Warriors @ 804 Toronto Raptors Play #1 & #2 GSW is coming from a pure offensive demolition over the Knicks in the last game by scoring 126 points and having Off. Rtg. = 120.8! However, let’s not forget that they were facing the… Knicks – ranked #27 in defending 3pts% (ranked #29 in L10 games); ranked #30 defending P&R ball handler plays & ranked #29 defending transition plays. Obviously, GSW torched NYK defense in all these 3 areas for an easy win. Hardly, this will happen today against the Raptors because we are dealing w/ a TOR defense that is allowing 32.7% 3pts in L10 games (ranked #7 in the league) and is ranked #4 defending P&R Ball Handler Plays. Facing R. Felton is way different than facing K. Lowry and I expect GSW to have a natural offensive letdown in this contest. The good news for GSW is that their defense is playing @ extreme high level and I expect them to be even better against TOR today. First of all, note that there are several Raptors’ players banged up right now: Amir Johnson is still dealing w/ a bad ankle while K. Lawry & T. Ross sprained their ankles in the last game vs. WAS as well… TOR offense is PNR heavy while they are mostly a jump shooting team like GSW… Well, GSW is allowing just 32.5% 3pts in L10 games - #4 best mark in the league while their PNR has clearly improved now that they are healthy. I expect Iguodala to match up w/ DeRozan in here while K. Lowry will be busy to defend S. Curry… A couple of weeks ago, TOR would have a substantial edge w/ 2nd unit over GSW, but I don’t think that this potential edge is so clear right now b/c GSW bench now w/ S. Blake, Barnes, Green & Jermaine O’Neal played great @NYK in the last game. I’m taking the Warriors in this contest in a relatively low scoring game. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Golden State Warriors (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors

Miami  at Golden State

NBA - 723 Miami Heat @ 724 Golden State Warriors ***FREE Premium Play*** It was interesting for me to watch MIA control the tempo of the game last night vs. PHX. I was expecting a fast paced contest, as this is usually the style that PHX wants to play especially at home, but the game had “only” pace factor = 89.6! Note that PHX’s pace factor for the season is 94.35 so you can “see” the difference. Their previous game @UTA had pace factor = 81.4 so this is IMO an obvious trend: MIA wants to slow down a bit the tempo of the game, and not enter in “track meats” vs. their opponents. Being this contest a b2b game, there is no reason to think otherwise for tonight… I had MIA-3 last night vs. PHX w/ the X factor being: “OK… MIA has by far the best P&R defense in the league and this is super important vs. PHX team that has Goran Dragic as their primary ball handler! MIA’s biggest defensive weakness has been their “inability” to make the proper defensive rotations on the weak side and teams w/ great ball moment are torching them from the outside. I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! “ Well, GSW is somehow a similar team as PHX as their primary scoring source is on the perimeter and their ball movement is quite subpar – they are averaging just 19.8 assists per game in L5 games! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 02/04: Charlotte Bobcats @ Golden State Warriors

Charlotte  at Golden State

NBA - 507 Charlotte Bobcats @ 508 Golden State Warriors Play #2 CHA has been a competitive team this season when being underdogs, but they really tend to struggle vs. great offensive fast paced teams, and GSW w/ 3 days off to rest and prepare tonight’s game fits perfectly in those role of teams. CHA offense keeps struggling to hit outside shots – 31-91 3pts in the L5 games for a subpar 34% mark. Their only consistent offensive threat has been Al Jefferson that is playing some great basketball right now. He struggled big time in the last game @PHX, but it was a natural letdown after 2 great performances @DEN & @LAL. The problem is that for tonight, “Big Al” won’t face JJ Hickson or Pau Gasol down low but rather Andrew Bogut. Bogut is finally playing consistent minutes, and his post up defense is excellent, and so I don’t think Al Jefferson will have any considerable edge on his individual matchup, and therefore, I expect CHA offense to struggle a bit tonight. On the other side, CHA defense is build to protect the basket but they are poor perimeter defensive team – ranked #28 in defending 3pts by allowing 37.3%. GSW offense as you can guess is one of the best shooting teams in the league (ranked #3 in 3pts% w/ 38.1%) and w/ 3 days off, I expect them to completely torch CHA from the outside. GSW’s storyline for this contest has been Klay Thompson’ shooting struggles as of late: Thompson has seen his field goal percentage drop each month this season and finished with a 38.4 percent field goal percentage in January. "I just remind him that it's his third year, and he's played a lot of minutes and added obviously some responsibilities on both sides of the floor just to make sure he understands you're going to get heavy-legged a couple times throughout the season," Stephen Curry said. Well, this is a great spot for him to enjoy a decent offensive performance while w/ GSW having the edge in both offense & defense, I expect them to easily crush the Bobcats tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 Golden State Warriors (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 11/23: Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors

Portland  at Golden State

NBA - 719 Portland Trailblazers @ 720 Golden State Warriors Plays #8 & 9 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** The Warriors are struggling due to their lack of depth and Mark Jackson isn't helping his team by not trusting his bench at all. Thanks to that, the Warriors' starters are being forced to play a lot of minutes and last night at LA against the Lakers on an uptempo game, three of the Warriors' starters played 40 or more minutes and they weren't four playing a lot because Andre Iguodala got injured mid-game. Their fatigue was notorious on their inability to score near the basket with 18-37 (48.6%) FG against a poor Lakers interior defense Golden State will play their third game in four days, with this game being also a back to back game for them! On the other hand, Portland isn't also on a good spot. They had a poor spot last night on their first home game after a road trip and Chicago gave them a good fight. However, the Blazers managed to get a comeback win due to their starting lineup where every player was on the court for at least 35 minutes. We are then in front of two jump shooting teams tonight with heavy legs right now, a clear problem for both offenses! However, I believe the Warriors are on an even worse position for tonight, as Portland has more options on the bench and their defense is programmed to defend 3pts shots. In fact, the Blazers led the league in 3pts defense with just 29.5% 3pts allowed! Therefore, I expect this game to be a low scoring 50/50 one and so, I'll be taking Portland on a Single Dime Play and the Under on a Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 Portland Trailblazers (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 10/31: Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

Golden State  at LA Clippers

NBA - 503 Golden State Warriors @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers Play #2 & #3 The Clippers got crushed on the fourth quarter of their opening game against the Lakers. Of course the main reason for that was their poor defense, something that Doc Rivers immediately mentioned after the game. "I thought we broke down a lot defensively" Doc Rivers said. "All the things we've worked on that we do in the drill, then when the lights came on, we didn't do them and they took advantage of them." So, the key question for this game is if the Clippers will be able to adjust defensively with just one practice in the middle between games. I believe that's highly unlikely and I really think that the Clippers will continue to struggle on defense on their following games. Doc Rivers is trying to implement the same defensive system that he used in Boston, a system that had Kevin Garnett as the key defensive player, who was amazing on team help defensive coverage.  That role in LA has to be performed by Blake Griffin, who lacks Garnett's excellent defensive skills (so far). Worse than that, the Clippers have J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley on the backcourt, two players who aren't explosive enough on closing out on the opposing shooters. This is why the Lakers shot 14-29 3pts against them and that they will get an even tougher task tonight against the team that was #1 on 3pts% last season. Besides that, the Warriors showed already yesterday that they have a great offensive flow and two of the best shooters in the league in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors absolutely crushed the Lakers last night and so, they were able to rest players for today. This was vital for them, as their lack of depth is the team's main weakness, especially with Harrison Barnes injured. On the other hand, the Clippers' offense looked good against the Lakers, with a good ball movement (27 assists) and 19 fast break points. Their only problem was the poor 13-23 FT, with Blake Griffin struggling with 3-10 FT! Also Chris Paul didn't impress a lot with 5-13 FG, something weird as he had an excellent offensive matchup in that game. The Clippers are still struggling on their second unit especially due to the lack of a reliable big man. In fact, from the bench, Ryan Hollins was the only frontcourt player that entered the court and only for four minutes! Mark Jackson will possibly save Andre Iguodala to defend Chris Paul on the fourth quarter, something that could make Paul struggle a bit, especially as the Clippers don't have a perimeter defensive stopped like Eric Bledsoe last season to hide Chris Paul from having to defend Curry or Klay. I expect a close and offensive minded contest in here, with both teams showing more efficiency on offense than on defense. I believe the Warriors are being clearly underrated in here as well and so, I'll be taking both Golden State and the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Golden State Warriors (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Golden State Warriors NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	94.5	4
Offense	106.4	11
Defense	105.5	14
Rebound	50.2	15

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	50.6	10	eFG%	48.6	8
TO%	14.0	21	TO%	12.4	28
Reb%	25.4	22	Reb%	24.5	1
FT%	20.1	18	FT%	21.1	22

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	9-6	105.4	105.1
December	12-4	112.6	104.4
January	8-7	108.1	109.4
February	4-8	108.9	115.2
March	9-7	107.4	101.9
April	5-3	111.2	107.2

The Warriors were possibly the league’s biggest surprise last season. Head Coach Mark Jackson led the team onto the #6 seed on the Western Conference by overachieving their performance on the court, as the Warriors were the playoff team with the worst point differential during the regular season in the Western Conference (only +0.9), something that should have given them a record close to 41-41, much worse than their 47-35 record.

Then in the playoffs, the Warriors faced the red hot Nuggets in the first round that had the home court advantage. Golden State lost the Game 1 of the series on the last shot of the game, while David Lee suffered a serious injury mid-game. However, Golden State was still able to eliminate the Nuggets in six games led by a super Stephen Curry. In the second round, the Warriors were able to push San Antonio into a 2-2 tie in the series, but then the Spurs solved the series with two wins in the following games by double digits, while showing that they were indeed the better team in the series.

It wasn’t surprising to see the Warriors being a good offensive team last season with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jarrett Jack, David Lee and Carl Landry, five offensive minded players with good offensive skills. Still, the Warriors weren’t an elite team on offense, even though they were the best team in the league behind the line with 40.3% 3pts, the only team in the league above 40%!

The problem was that the Warriors weren’t a good offensive team in the remaining offensive areas, as they committed too many turnovers (#21 on TO/rate%) and their jump shooting mindset was quite visible by their lack of aggressiveness by being #22 in the league on offensive rebounding and #18 on FT rate.

But it was their defense that was the main reason why the Warriors became a competitive team. On the first season of the Mark Jackson era in Golden State, they were the fourth worst defensive team and they were the worst defensive rebounding team in the league! Therefore, it’s unbelievable that the Warriors became the best defensive rebounding team in the league last season, when they had been the worst team on that area in the previous season!

Golden State’s improvements on defense weren’t as spectacular, but they were #14 in defensive rating last season. In theory we could mention that Andrew Bogut was the main reason for this improvement, but Bogut played just 32 games during the regular season! The Warriors improved on defense mostly due to a concerted team effort and the merit should go to the coaching staff that was able to insert the right mindset into the locker room.

For the short span where Golden State couldn’t be a decent defensive team, the results were quite negative with a 4-8 record in February, while allowing 109.4 points per game.

Stephen Curry had a monster 2^nd half of the season while shooting 47.6% FG, 46.1% 3pts and 89.4% FT and he was even better in the playoffs! Despite some minor injuries, he was capable of playing 78 games on the regular season and his shooting ability was a joy to watch. The Warriors’ season was directly related with Curry’s performance and that was clear during the postseason.

Offseason Report:

The Warriors didn’t have a lot of flexibility on their cap salary, but they were still one of the teams that were interested in Dwight Howard on the offseason. Howard decided to sign with Houston and so, the Warriors set their attention into Andre Iguodala unexpectedly. Iguodala mentioned that we would have continued in Denver if former Nuggets GM Masai Ujiri had remained with the team and then, he was also one hour away from signing with Dallas. Golden State didn’t have the cap space at the time to sign him, but a last minute deal with Utah in trading Andris Biedrins and Richard Jefferson allowed the room to sign Iguodala.

In other news, Jarrett Jack joined the Cavaliers in a big loss for the Warriors, having in account that Toney Douglas, Seth Curry, Nemanja Nedovic and Kent Bazemore will fight for minutes on the backcourt and none of these players will bring the quality to the second unit’s backcourt that Jack brought last season.

In the frontcourt, Golden State added Marreese Speights and Jermaine O’Neal to a unit that also suffered a big loss when Carl Landry went to Sacramento.

NBA Premium Play 05/16: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 741 San Antonio Spurs @ 742 Golden State Warriors

Projected Line: 198 points
The Spurs won Game 5 behind a stellar offensive performance with an offensive rate of 126.2 and I don’t think the Warriors will be able to slow them down tonight. Tony Parker looked limited in Game 4 due to a calf injury, but he was back in Game 5 while taking advantage of the Warriors' bad defense on pick and rolls and the fact that he faced Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack in several offensive possessions: he went 9-16 FG, 7-10 FT, 25 points and 10 assists! For tonight I expect Parker to be aggressive once again and most likely the Warriors' defense will collapse to contain him. The problem is that the Spurs' “role players” are looking more confident and they are knocking down their shots (Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green combined to shoot 13-18 from the field!). The improved ball movement was well noticed for me as the Spurs notched 30 assists on 40 field goals, an 75 percent assist rate. Only Tim Duncan wasn’t able to hit his mid range shots, but it was an overall impressive performance. The Warriors had no choice but to give Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack major minutes on the floor together and this is something that the Spurs will explore.

The key factor for me is what the Warriors' offense will do tonight. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson struggled in Game 5 by shooting just 6-22 FG! They looked tired since the start, something normal as they have been playing huge minutes in all games and because the game was decided relatively early, with both playing less than 40 minutes. We can expect them to be more aggressive tonight. Coach Mark Jackson is determined to play small ball as the idea of pairing Andrew Bogut with Festus Ezeli is now dead. The Spurs are putting a concerted effort to shut down GSW’s 3pts shots, but the Warriors, especially with Curry is finding the right teammates down low for some easy points. The 40-points in the paint mark in Game 5 was the 2nd best mark for GSW in this series (they scored 52 in the first game!). I think the Warriors will be ready for a similar Spurs defensive game plan for tonight and will torch the Spurs down low.

I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch in an offensive perspective and that’s why I’m taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 741/742 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/12: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 725 San Antonio Spurs @ 726 Golden State Warriors

Projected Line: San Antonio by 6 points

Gregg Popovich showed once again that he is a pure genius on the Game 3 of this series, as all his adjustments worked perfectly. He started Tiago Splitter and even though he isn't physically at 100% yet, his presence was good for the Spurs' offense. San Antonio used a lot of pick and rolls, mostly with Tony Parker, who was great in the first half with 25 points. while also forcing both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to work hard on defense, as they suffered with the screens from the Spurs' big men. This offensive strategy of San Antonio worn out the Warriors' backcourt. Tony Parker had to defend Stephen Curry and so, he would likely get worn out in the second half, so Popovich put Green and Leonard guarding Curry in the second half to avoid that. 

The truth is that in the second half, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson become worn out and so, they start to struggle in making their jump shots. Of course with Tiago Splitter in the starting lineup, coach Mark Jackson decided to put Festus Ezeli on the starting team and that was a disaster, as he is a disaster on offense. On the other hand, Popovich knew Golden State would eventually use small lineups, so he inserted Boris Draw on court. Diaw's ability on dribbling and passes versus the Warriors' small players gave him a big edge and so, he had 4-5 FG in 20 minutes. 

The Spurs' defense has been phenomenal on this series. Since his 22-point third quarter in Game 1, Stephen Curry is just shooting 34.0% FG on this series. On the other side, since his 29-point first half in Game 2, Klay Thompson is just shooting 32.1% FG! San Antonio has been adjusting very well on defense. They are playing small, but always with Green/Joseph/Leonard on court to put pressure on the opposing shooters. I give some merit to Golden State, as they have been able to make some mini comebacks on the games, but the Spurs has been replying very well to that with runs of their own. The problem for the Warriors is that they had just 1 day off for today's game and they are really looking exhausted right now, especially Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry. That's normal considering Curry played 58, 43 and 42 minutes on the first three games of the series, while Thompson played 32 (fouled out), 47 and 42 minutes.

San Antonio will use the same gameplan today, something that will put the Warriors in clear trouble. Either they don't fight on the screens and with that the Spurs will have a bunch of wide open shots or they will fight, but they will get quickly exhausted due to their jump shooting style and lack of depth. The Warriors' defense is struggling because Jarrett Jack is a poor defender and he gets quickly exposed against the Spurs. It seems that Carl Landry will finally start today, but this will mean that they don't having any inside punch coming off the bench today and Landry may also struggle with Splitter's size. 

I believe with their adjustments, San Antonio has now the clear upperhand on this series and as a veteran without a huge pressure to win today. I expect to do exactly what the Grizzlies did to the Clippers in the previous round. As soon as Memphis made the right adjustments, they defeated the Clippers four games in a row. I believe something similar will happen on this series and therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Spurs today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725 San Antonio Spurs (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/10: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 719 San Antonio Spurs @ 720 Golden State Warriors

Projected Line: 199 points

It might be weird, but the Spurs are having problems on offense against the subpar defense of the Warriors. This trend of San Antonio not showing an elite offense is already coming from the regular season, so it's not that much of a surprise that they are struggling on offense right now. Andrew Bogut is doing a good job in defending Tim Duncan down low and the truth is that Duncan is only being efficient on his mid-range jumpers. With Klay Thompson defending Tony Parker, the French guard of the Spurs is showing once again that he doesn't feel comfortable against taller opponents guarding him and that has been evident during this series. San Antonio is one of the best passing teams in the league, but they managed to dish just 14 assists on the Game 2 of this series. So, they need to known down their outside shots, but the problem is that their role players are struggling, just like it happened in last year's playoffs.

The big news for tonight's game is that San Antonio will adjust on defense. The Spurs got crushed by the Warriors' small ball on Game 2, however it's important to note that coach Popovich was able to adjust on the second half of that game by playing small ball as well.

“We were lacking the focus, the intensity, whatever you want to call it. That put us in a hole,” Tim Duncan said. “That second quarter really killed us. I don’t know what to say about it, honestly. We got a crew in there that found a little bit of rhythm defensively and started making stops,” he continued. “It was a good third quarter. The fourth quarter we just didn’t have enough gas to get back into it.”

Klay Thompson was only able to make one trey during the 2nd half, after having made seven in the first half! The Spurs managed to make better close outs on the shooters during the second half thanks to that. We can expect Popovich to do the same tonight, unless Tiago Splitter is back at 100% physically and with that, Popovich may decide to use both Splitter and Duncan together on the frontcourt. But if that happens, San Antonio become an elite defensive team immediately and so, the Warriors' offense will struggle tonight either way. It's also important to mention that Golden State's offensive execution during the fourth quarters is simply awful! They show bad clock management, they burn the clock too much and they eventually take some bad shots. That happened in the first two games of this series, it happened during the series against Denver and so, I expect it to happen tonight as well. Therefore, thanks to all these facts, I expect a relatively low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 05/06: Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 701 Golden State Warriors @ 702 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: San Antonio by 12 points

Golden State won their series against Denver due to a lot of merit from their head coach Mark Jackson, especially since David Lee went down with a hip injury. He adjusted by playing super small, with a lineup that featured Stephen Curry, Jarrett Jack, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. That lineup crushed the Nuggets. In 76 minutes, this combination outscored Denver by 15.4 points per 100 possessions, while their defense surprisingly bested the #1 regular season marks. This was possible due to Kenneth Faried's injury and with George Karl's panic, who ended up putting his team playing small as well, while Denver's frontcourt players showed not to be offensively skilled enough to pound the Warriors down low.

Things will be completely different on this series against San Antonio, as Tim Duncan seems to be 27 years old once again, while Tiago Splitter seems to be ready to play tonight. It looks like Carl Landry will be inserted into the starting lineup for this series and the truth is that Golden State got outscored by Denver with Landry on the court! Golden State had 1.21, 1.78, 1.21, 1.15, 1.23 and 1.21 PPP on spot up shooting throughout the series against Denver, but the Nuggets's spot up defense is the worst in the league, while San Antonio has a much better perimeter defense and so, they will certainly bring more problems to the Warriors's shooters. Both Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee lack defensive discipline to help their team on the perimeter, while George Karl also screwed up a lot on the rotations throughout the series, including putting a terrible defender like Andre Miller guarding Stephen Curry in key moments of the games.

I also expect the Warriors to struggle on the defensive end. They were a subpar defensive team on post up defense throughout the regular season and even though Andrew Bogut's presence in the paint is important for them, he can't play major minutes and he is still looking to be physically limited. Denver's offense sucked on this area with a 6% volume on post ups throughout the series, but San Antonio with Tim Duncan will base their offensive game on post ups and use Tim Duncan as a "point-center" during this series. Tony Parker looked well on the series against the Lakers and he will have a super edge on offense over Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack, who are poor defenders, and so, they will be unable to stop Parker's great penetrations into the basket, like it happened in the previous series against Ty Lawson. Therefore, I expect the Spurs to start this series immediately with an easy win and so, I'll be taking them in here tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 San Antonio Spurs (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/02: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 543 Denver Nuggets @ 544 Golden State Warriors

Projected Line: Denver by 2 points

I've read some comparison between tonight's game and the Game 6 of the Warriors/Mavericks series in 2007, where Golden State crushed Dallas and won the series that night. I expect things to be different tonight. On the last game of this series, Denver played like they should always play against Golden State, with a big lineup, grabbing 55% of the rebounds and having a 50-24 edge at the paint. It's tough to separate their good spot in Game 5 from the improvements from the lineup changes, but I saw the Nuggets to defend rather well during the second half of the regular season and attacking the rim like they should. The Warriors came back at the end on Game 5 because Denver tried to play small again with Andre Miller and Ty Lawson on the backcourt.

Denver's main problem has been Kenneth Faried's defense, who seems to be lost all the time around the court trying to defend Harrison Barnes, who has been very good from the 3pts line, even though he is a rookie and still quite raw. On the other hand, Denver defended Stephen Curry better with Andre Iguodala and Ty Lawson, but what was the most interesting was the Warriors's new mindset. Take a look at their volume of isolation plays throughout the series: 8.60%, 12.30%, 19.80%, 23.80%, 22.90%! Over the last three games, their ISO ball has been around 20%, close to the level of the Knicks!

The main issue for the Warriors tonight might be Andrew Bogut, who tweaked his ankle in Game 5. Bogut was able to go through a light workout yesterday despite tweaking the ankle, so while we don't think it's a serious concern, it's always worth noting when it comes to Bogut's surgically-repaired ankle. He was ineffective in his 18 minutes in Game 5 and the Warriors will need more from him on tonight's game. With Bogut being limited, Denver will have a huge edge on rebounds over the Warriors. After three games where the Warriors surprisingly outrebounded the Nuggets, Denver grabbed 56.71% and 54.38% of the rebounds on the last two games of the series! Not only the Nuggets are winning the boards battle, as they are consequently creating second chance points plus limiting the Warriors's offensive flow. I see Denver having more chances to win tonight than the Warriors and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 543 Denver Nuggets (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/28: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 515 Denver Nuggets @ 516 Golden State Warriors

Projected Lines: 208 points | Denver by 5 points

The Game 3 of this series saw Denver being more competitive than they had been on Game 2. I didn't like the fact that George Karl abandoned his usual lineup with Kenneth Faried and Kostas Koufos on the frontcourt, but at least Faried moved much better on Game 3 than he had done in Game 2. Denver's improvements were mostly on defense, especially on the 1st half. The Nuggets trapped the pick and roll consistently and they were effective in removing Klay Thompson out of the game. Inexplicably, Denver abandoned that game plan in the second half. I don't know what happened, but that was the key for their loss. I believe Denver will be more focused in following their gameplan for the whole 48 minutes today.

The last game between these two teams had 218 points scored, but its 2nd half was a reflection of what I expect it will be happen tonight. Golden State did a great defensive job with Andrew Bogut managing to do a solid job in limiting Denver's rim offense and especially in avoiding the Nuggets to score second chance points. However, Denver with a similar approach to Game 3 should have more chances of winning tonight. Of course Stephen Curry is an incredible shooter, but Golden State also benefited from an incredible shooting of Jarrett Jack and Harrison Barnes in the previous game, as they shot a combined of 17-29 FG, something close to impossible of being repeated today. This will be the first time the two teams have just 1 day off to rest between games and therefore, Denver's superior depth should be the key in here. In the last game, Golden State's starters played more than 36 minute excluding Bogut and they will pay the price today. Denver will come aggressive and I expect to win the boards battle for the first time this season. This should give them a relatively comfortable in here, on a well fought contest like last game's second half was. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 212,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Denver Nuggets (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/26: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

Denver  at Golden State

NBA - 734 Denver Nuggets @ 735 Golden State Warriors Projected Line: Golden State by 3 points In the Game 2 of this series, the Warriors used a small lineup with Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson playing together on the backcourt, while Harrison Barnes was sent into the PF position to defend Wilson Chandler, who isn't a bad matchup for the Warriors. This wasn't the first time at all that Golden State used this 3-guard combo, but what changed was Barnes at the PF position. The most curious part of this game was an in-game interview in mid-3rd quarter (GSW leading it by 96-80) where George Karl was asked what he would change to the game and he answered "play faster"! I had already mentioned that Golden State's offense is really a bad matchup for Denver, as their weakest point on defense is their spot up defense due to their focus being in packing the paint. Now for Game 3, it has been widely reported that George Karl will insert both Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler in the starting frontcourt, with a lineup composed by Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, Andre Iguodala, Evan Fournier and Ty Lawson. Of course this lineup will be more mobile, however Faried is still a 50% physically right now. But still the Nuggets's defense isn't used to play with this lineup and there are no miracle changes in two days! Denver's main problem is that they need to have two key edges to beat Golden State: offensive rebounding (they won't have it with Faried as their center) and transition offense (as in a pure shooting battle between these two teams, the Warriors will outshoot them 9 times out of 10). It seems ridiculous that the Nuggets attempted one more three-pointer than Golden State in Game 2! On the other hand, the Warriors are being very smart on this series. They are abdicating of grabbing offensive boards just to go back to defense as soon as possible to prevent Denver from torching them on transitions, who scored just 8 fast break points who scored in Game 2! Denver should do a bit better on this area tonight, but they will still use a lineup without great shooting skills, besides Wilson Chandler who is an inconsistent shooter. So, the Nuggets are making a dangerous option with these changes tonight. Unlike Denver, Golden State is very familiarized with their 3-guards lineup. Stephen Curry will play even though he is a bit limited with an ankle injury right now, but with him on court, the Warriors will continue shooting well from the outside against the Nuggets. Golden State is the best spot up shooting team in the league, while Denver's spot up defense is the worst in the league, so no way the Warriors regress big time on their shooting tonight, in comparison to their insane Game 2 shooting. A small regression perhaps, but Golden State won't be shooting 30's% FG tonight. The Warriors seem more ready to play at a nice level tonight than the Nuggets and with the crowd fired up for their first home game of the postseason, I expect the Warriors to pick up an important win tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735 Golden State Warriors (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/23: Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 725 Golden State Warriors @ 726 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: 212 points

The Game 1 of this series had a supersonic pace of almost 99, something that classifies pretty much as a run and gun kind of game. That's normal considering this is the style both teams like to play, however both offenses struggle and couldn't react to the adjustments that both defenses made, a surprise effect that won't happen once again tonight. The Nuggets's offense really missed Kenneth Faried and this was the key why I took the Warriors on Game 1. Wilson Chandler played 39 minutes to replace Faried and he actually had 13 rebounds, but the problem is that Chandler plays much further from the basket than Faried. This is proved with the fact that Chandler shot 0-1 FG at the rim, while he attempts 11 shots from +16 feet! He was another "guard" shooting away from the basket and this isn't something that the Nuggets's offense is used to have. This made Andrew Bogut's defensive task much easier, but with Faried back tonight, I expect Denver to pound the basket much more tonight, after a still decent outcome of 18-33 FG at the rim on Game 1! This will only benefit Denver's perimeter game, as Golden State will nice to close more the paint and therefore leave more space on the outside.

On the other side, David Lee got injured on Game 1 and he is now out for the season. By the way, he was struggling on Game 1 with 4-14 FG! Denver made the smart decision of double teaming Stephen Curry early on the possessions to force him to pass the ball. He didn't look ready for this kind of pressure and that definitely affected his mindset. Even though he shot 7-20 FG, he had a horrible start of the game, where he missed some wide open shots, something very uncharacteristic for him. Nevertheless, Golden State dished 27 assists, while showing a good ball movement! I expect the Warriors to be ready for the extra pressure on Curry. 

I expect tonight's game to be once again a fast paced contest, but with both offenses being much more efficient than they were on Game 1. Without David Lee on court, the Warriors will have to play even smaller than usual, with Draymond Green having some minutes at the PF position. Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725/726 Over 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/20: Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 703 Golden State Warriors @ 704 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: Denver by 4 points

We know how great the Nuggets have been this season at home, where they were close to invincible during the regular season. They have a lot of depth, but Danilo Gallinari's and Kenneth Faried's injuries are very concerning on this specific matchup against Golden State. Evan Fournier will start at the SG position on this game, a rookie out of France, he averaged just 11.6 minutes per game during the regular season. But thanks to a late-season surge via injuries to Danilo Gallinari/Kenneth Faried, he's earned the trust of coach George Karl. The Nuggets will roll with Ty Lawson, Fournier, Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler and Kosta Koufos as their starters. Corey Brewer and Andre Miller will see significant time as guards off the bench.

Wilson Chandler will play at the PF position and even though he is a pretty decent player, he doesn't have the same rebounding skills that Faried possesses. Chandler is a way better shooter than Faried, but he shoots much further from the basket than Faried generally does, something that will remove the Nuggets's offensive game from near the rim, the area where their offense really excels. Note that Faried average 11.5 ppg, 11.3 rpg (4.5 off reb per game) and 2.3 bpg on the four games that Denver had against Golden State in the regular season. Andrew Bogut may be the key for the Warriors down low. Note that even though Bogut has been in and out of the lineup this season due to physical problems, Golden State was the best team in the league in defensive rebounding with a great 75.5% defensive rebound rate. With the Nuggets missing Faried, Golden State should prevent Denver from grabbing offensive boards today.

Denver's defensive system is built to pack the paint, get the defensive rebound and go out in transition. They gamble so much in order to force turnovers that obviously their perimeter defensive numbers can't be good. In fact, they were #20 in the league during the regular season on 3pts defense with 36.3% allowed and #30 in spot up defense with 1.05 PPP allowed. If there is a team that can pound Denver on their defensive weakness is Golden State, who led the league during the regular season in 3pts shooting with 40,3% and 42.1% after the All Star break! 

Danilo Gallinari's absence is important for Denver because he would be a bad matchup for the Warriors's defense, as coach Mark Jackson loves to play Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson together during major minutes. So, a potential matchup against Denver playing with Danilo Gallinari and Andre Iguodala in the perimeter would cause a huge size edge favoring the Nuggets. Besides that, both Gallinari and Iguodala are excellent defenders, with the Italian player improving a lot defensively this season. With Fournier on the lineup instead, combined with Faried's recent injury, Denver will be a bit lost, as they aren't used to play without two of their most important players on the roster. I believe Golden State will be much more competitive than most people expect on this series and this will start on the Game 1 of the series. Therefore, I'll be taking the Warriors in here. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Golden State Warriors (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker