Monday, January 16, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/15: Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 805 Phoenix Suns @ 806 San Antonio Spurs

Projected line: San Antonio by 12 points
Phoenix has Steve Nash and Grant Hill back for tonight, but are they really back at 100? Even with Steve Nash on the court, Tony Parker is clearly quicker than Nash and he should clearly give the Spurs an important edge for tonight. Nash is now clearly past his prime and against Cleveland, Kyrie Irving in just 28 minutes shot 11-17 FG in a 26pts and 6ast performance. Also the Suns have a poor overall defense, especially on the perimeter. In their last two games, they allowed Cleveland to shoot 10-19 3pts and then New Jersey to shoot 15-32 3pts!

But the main problem for the Suns continues to be their offense. Phoenix continues to play at a similar way of when they were an offensive machine, with just 23.5% volume of their shots at the rim. They shoot too much from the perimeter when they really lack good shooters, as Dudley, Hill and Brown aren't shooters, while Nash has been struggling with injuries and Redd has barely played in the past two seasons. They only have Frye as a good shooter and that's simply not enough, as shown with the fact that they are just shooting 39% FG from 16-23 feet and 33% from the 3pts line this season.

On the other side, San Antonio is all about team concept. Who would think that on a game against a top team like Portland, without Manu Ginolibi, with Tim Duncan shooting 3-7 FG in a 7pts and 5 turnovers performance and with Richard Jefferson shooting 1-7 FG, they would still beat Portland by 16 points? They have without a doubt the best bench in the league, not in terms of individualities, but in terms of chemistry and in this game against the soft defense of the Suns, San Antonio won't have any problems in securing their offensive continuity tonight. I believe San Antonio has a good spot for tonight and at home against a struggling team like the Suns, they should have no problems in winning this game by a double digits difference. Therefore, I'll take San Antonio in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 806 San Antonio Spurs (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

No comments:

Post a Comment