Tuesday, January 17, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/16: Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks

NBA - 701 Orlando Magic @ 702 New York Knicks

Projected line: Orlando by 6 points
As we have all seen over the past few games, the Knicks offense is basically ridiculous right now and it won't get any better with Carmelo being doubtful for this contest. Their ball movement is simply non-existent, as they have dished just 16, 13, 19 and 18 assists on their last 4 games. The volume on their plays is terribly adjusted, as they have a super volume of ISO plays (16.40%) but without any success, as they are 28th in the league with 0.63 PPP! They also have a volume of 23,50% on Spot up plays, where they struggle again by being just 19th in the league with 0.90 PPP! We are talking about 40% of their shots in here! Another sign of their terrible offense is the fact that Toney Douglas and Iman Shumpert are taking more shots than Amare Stoudemire, something that is completely absurd. The Knicks offense is completely a mess right now and that won't change today.

On the other side, Orlando has been red hot on their outside shooting and they are already 4th in the league on spot up plays with 1.07 PPP! On their last three games, they shot 10-32, 16-27 and 11-23 from the 3pts line, a clear demonstration of how lethal they are on their perimeter game right now. And then, on the interior, they have Dwight Howard, who continues to dominate down low basically over any team in the league. Orlando has the better defense and the better offense on this contest and therefore, I expect them to have little problems in taking advantage of the Knicks struggles and have a comfortable win today. I'm taking Orlando in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Orlando Magic (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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