NBA Free Premium Play 05/04: Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat

Brooklyn  at Miami

NBA - 737 Brooklyn Nets @ 738 Miami Heat Play #1 We’ve lost w/ the Under in the last game of this series, but I’m back again playing the Under in tonight’s contest as the circumstances really didn’t change for this game. As usual, last game was a slow paced affair w/ Pace Factor of 82.7 and obviously, both teams were incredible efficient on the offensive end! I’ve watched once again the game today and I couldn’t stop noticed the incredible number of times that both teams hit some tough contested jumpers… I’ve just checked NBA.com/stats… MIA went 23-37 FG (62.2%!!!) in contested shots and even the Nets shot 27-59 FG (45.8%!) in those shots! Naturally, we can expect a bit of regression from both teams for tonight and therefore, I’m playing the Under in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 737/738 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/23: Charlotte Bobcats @ Miami Heat

Charlotte  at Miami

NBA - 727 Charlotte Bobcats @ 728 Miami Heat ***FREE Premium Play*** The first contest ended up w/ 187 points and I think that for tonight’s game it will be tough for both teams to be more efficient on the offensive end, and therefore I’m taking the Under in here. The Bobcats’ offense really needs Al Jefferson to dominate down low, but unfortunately he is banged up, and I don’t think he is capable of such task for the entire game. If he struggles tonight, CHA is going to ride more Kemba Walker but MIA’s defense is so good vs. PNR’s that CHA’s offense will have some big problems for tonight. On the other end, CHA really did a good job in limiting MIA’s transition plays in G1. They held the Heat to just 6 fast break points and tonight’s game plan will be the same = slow down things! CHA did a good job defensively vs. MIA’s starting lineup! Just look for the first minutes of the first and third quarter!  The problem was when James Jones entered the game to spread the floor for the Heat…Jones was out of the rotation and the Heat surprised the Bobcats in G1. I expect CHA’s to be more prepared for tonight and so, I expect them to be a bit better defensively for tonight as well. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 727/728 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 04/06: New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

New York  at Miami

NBA - 501 New York Knicks @ 502 Miami Heat ***FREE Premium Play*** We can expect this contest to be a “brutal” half court game because both teams are playing @ ridiculous slow pace lately. The fact that this contest will be a slow paced one isn’t anything “new” because we are dealing w/ ranked #29 (NYK) and #26 (MIA) teams in terms of Pace Factor. However, both teams (especially Miami) are playing even slower lately! According to my numbers, MIA Pace Factor season number = 89.9 vs. L10 games = 84.8! You can see the difference… Regarding the matchups… both teams aren’t particularly sharing the ball as of late… MIA is averaging just 19.9 assists per game in L7 games, while NYK = 18.2 assists/game in L5 games! Carmelo Anthony is banged up (he looked awful in the last game vs. NYK!) and the Knicks will now face an improved MIA perimeter defense that is allowing just 31.9% from 3pts in L10 games = #2 best mark in the league behind only the Bulls! On the other side, D. Wade is still OUT for this contest and this is some good news for NYK’s awful perimeter defense. Still, note that NYK defense has been a bit better lately, they have allowed 84, 83, 81 and 90 points in the L4 games! The correlation between the matchups & expectation of this contest being a pure slow paced half battle = fair line = 184 points = proper edge to take the Under in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/31: Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat

Toronto  at Miami

NBA - 735 Toronto Raptors @ 736 Miami Heat Play #2 It was tough for me to watch the Magic hit 55.1% of their shots last night vs. TOR and still score only 93 points as our Triple Dime Play w/ OVER 194 pts fell short by 3 points. Nevertheless, TOR’s perimeter defense once again was subpar as the Magic did some nice damage via PNR’s by their guards. In my opinion, Lowry & DeRozan’s big minutes and increased “fatigue” have been the biggest reason for this TOR’s defensive slump as of late and being this contest @b2b spot, this won’t help the Raptors tonight. In yesterday’s game, TOR had more than 30% of their offensive production via PNR Ball Handler plays w/ a decent 0.87 PPP mark. I was expecting such good numbers from them via PNR’s because they were facing the subpar ORL defense.  Well, for tonight they will face #1 defense in the league vs. PNR Ball Handler plays in the Heat and so, I expect a natural letdown from the Raptors tonight. The fact that MIA is 3-0 vs. TOR so far in this season isn’t a coincidence – they really matchup well vs. TOR! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 736 Miami Heat (-5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/19: Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

Miami  at Boston

NBA - 603 Miami Heat @ 604 Boston Celtics ***FREE Premium Play*** It was “weird” to watch the Heat had some problems down the stretch @CLE last night even after LeBron James went off in the first quarter w/ 25 points! There is a clear problem of lack of fluidity and continuity with the Heat right now… LeBron James played 42 minutes and Bosh 39 minutes, so this isn’t a good spot for MIA – b2b games on the road! We can be pretty sure that the Celtics will be fired up for this contest! Rondo and Bradley are all already confirmed to be in the starting lineup and they know how to play vs. MIA. I expect Bradley to be a tough defensive matchup for D. Wade while Rondo will setup his teammates down low. BOS’s offensive rebounding has been pretty solid w/ their frontcourt unit of Bass, Humphries, Sullinger & Olynyk and for tonight, I expect the Celtics to control the glass with some ease vs. MIA. Eventually, the Heat will take the game over down the stretch but we are dealing w/ 7-pts spread line and I’m taking the Celtics to be competitive in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 604 Boston Celtics (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors

Miami  at Golden State

NBA - 723 Miami Heat @ 724 Golden State Warriors ***FREE Premium Play*** It was interesting for me to watch MIA control the tempo of the game last night vs. PHX. I was expecting a fast paced contest, as this is usually the style that PHX wants to play especially at home, but the game had “only” pace factor = 89.6! Note that PHX’s pace factor for the season is 94.35 so you can “see” the difference. Their previous game @UTA had pace factor = 81.4 so this is IMO an obvious trend: MIA wants to slow down a bit the tempo of the game, and not enter in “track meats” vs. their opponents. Being this contest a b2b game, there is no reason to think otherwise for tonight… I had MIA-3 last night vs. PHX w/ the X factor being: “OK… MIA has by far the best P&R defense in the league and this is super important vs. PHX team that has Goran Dragic as their primary ball handler! MIA’s biggest defensive weakness has been their “inability” to make the proper defensive rotations on the weak side and teams w/ great ball moment are torching them from the outside. I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! “ Well, GSW is somehow a similar team as PHX as their primary scoring source is on the perimeter and their ball movement is quite subpar – they are averaging just 19.8 assists per game in L5 games! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Plays 01/26: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

San Antonio  at Miami

NBA - 801 San Antonio Spurs @ 802 Miami Heat Play #1 & #2 Well, this is just a regular season game w/ two banged up teams, so I don’t think that the “revenge” spot for SAS will make any different regarding the final outcome of this contest. In my opinion, what really matters is that the Heat enjoyed 2 full days off to rest and prepare the following game for the first time in more than 10 days! (01/15 game @WAS was their last “good physical spot”). MIA defense hasn’t been good this season and w/ fatigue being a major problem for them lately, they really couldn’t rotate properly on the defensive end. This might change today w/ more time to rest and w/ D. Wade back because as inconsistent as Wade is on defense, he is really a big upgrade over R. Allen. SAS is having some problems in taking care the ball as they’ve committed 15, 17 and 22 TO’s in L3 games and this is a big concern when facing the Heat’s ball pressure defense, so I expect MIA to finally having a decent defensive performance today. The real X factor for this contest is related w/ LeBron James! SAS is playing without K. Leonard & D. Green – their two best defensive perimeter players! LeBron James is almost impossible to be stopped, but for today he will have a great matchup advantage to explore and this will be good enough for MIA b/c LeBron will (as always) make the right plays. I expect this contest to be a relatively slow paced game and this will make the difference w/ Totals IMO. My fair line for this contest is 200 points so besides playing the Heat, I’m also playing the Under in here as well as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Miami Heat (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/21: Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

Boston  at Miami

NBA - 501 Boston Celtics @ 502 Miami Heat Play #1 The key question for this contest: will MIA bounce back defensively after such embarrassing effort last night? "We scored enough points to win, so obviously it was defense," James said. "Especially in the first half." On my recap article of that game, I’ve said: “However since 01/January, MIA has allowed 122.8 Off. Rtg to GSW at home; 123.0 Off. Rtg to NYK on the road; 130.0 Off. Rtg to WAS last week and yesterday, they allowed 127.5 Off. Rtg to the Hawks – this is a really a bad trend for them!” Analyzing all those games/losses, there is a common factor...just look for MIA’s opponents numbers from 3pts land: GSW 15-29 3pts NYK 9-24 3pts WAS 10-22 3pts ATL 12-31 3pts Those teams combined to hit 46-106 3pts - a 43.4% mark! The good news for them is that BOS is one of the worst 3pts teams in the league – ranked #27 w/ 33.2%; L10 games = ranked #28 w/ 28.9% or L5 games = ranked #29 w/ 25.0% 3pts! BOS offense will need some time to adjust to Rondo’s presence and MIA has the perfect spot to have a decent defensive game. On the other side, BOS backcourt defense w/ Rondo & Bradley is quite decent but more importantly, I don’t think that MIA is in a good spot to put an offensive show – this will be their 4th game in 5 days (the first time this season that MIA is having such bad physical spot). Therefore, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game and that's why I'm taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/27: Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings

Miami  at Sacramento

NBA - 815 Miami Heat @ 816 Sacramento Kings Play #4 Miami managed their lead at LA against the Lakers on Christmas Day without much trouble. Dwyane Wade was the most used player from the Heat with 39 minutes, while Lebron James played 36 minutes and Chris Bosh 31 minutes. The Heat will play an important game tomorrow at Portland, so considering how easily they crushed Sacramento by 122-103 at home a week ago, I believe this is a clear look ahead spot for Miami tonight. On that game played last Friday, Miami allowed the Kings to shoot 58.1% FG! Weirdly, Sacramento didn't win the boards battle, but the truth is that with both teams shooting close to 60% FG, it was hard for any team to grab a lot of offensive rebounds. Chris Anderson was one of the key players on that game, as even though he played just 21 minutes, he helped his team in preventing the Kings from dominating the boards. Anderson is out for tonight's game and so, Sacramento has definitely a good spot to crush the boards tonight and get some extra possessions to make this game close. Sacramento is coming from a home loss against the Pelicans, where they were terrible spot on pick and roll ball handler, spot up and transition defense. It appears that their coach Mike Malone laid a smackdown on the players after the game and the truth is that since the Rudy Gay trade, Sacramento had barely time to practice, as they were in the middle of a road trip. They had finally 3 days off to rest and regroup before tonight's game and so, I expect the Kings to have a decent bounce back on defense in here. With the Kings being better on defense, getting the upper hand on the rebounds and with Miami on a look ahead game, while not using Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen and Chris Anderson, I see good value in taking Sacramento tonight. So, I'm taking the Kings plus the points in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 816 Sacramento Kings (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 12/25: Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers

Miami  at LA Lakers

NBA - 805 Miami Heat @ 806 Los Angeles Lakers Play #2 My fair line for this contest is 203/204 points so IMO we are getting some decent value w/ the Under and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. I expect the Lakers offense to struggle (once again) in this matchup. Their offense is predicated on Pick n Rolls in multiple ways. In the last 3 games, their volume% of P&R ball handler plays was more than 20% in average – pretty high number for any team in the league! The problem is that I have bad news for them, because the Heat is the BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM in the league defending P&R BH plays allowing just 0.57 PPP! MIA’s great ball pressure defense is a tough matchup for a shorthanded Lakers team that tends to commit TO’s against aggressive defensive teams. I know that Jordan Farmar is back today and he will give some decent play @PG position, but still he won’t perform any miracle for his team. Eventually, Pau Gasol has a good spot to perform well tonight down low against MIA, but IMO he isn’t physically capable to dominate the entire game and so, the Heat will focus in holding LAL’s perimeter offense. However, I don’t think the Heat is in a good spot to perform at their best offensively. They had to make a huge travel for this contest w/ just one day off and to make things even worse; they had to battle hard against ATL in the last game, a game that went to OT! The Lakers have been completely outrebounded in the last few games but they will have some break today as MIA really don’t crash the boards offensively. They are also protecting the rim pretty well as of late by allowing just 51.5% FG at the rim L4 games, defending the perimeter has been indeed a huge problem for them, but again, I think that the Heat will struggle a bit in shooting the ball from long range. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Under 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 11/23: Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat

Orlando  at Miami

NBA - 709 Orlando Magic @ 710 Miami Heat Play #3 Orlando's Head Coach had the "brilliant" idea of using a small ball lineup to match Miami's small ball lineup as well. The idea in theory would be interesting, but Miami got comfortable and didn't have the struggles that they normally have on rebounding against bigger lineups. Miami generally gets outrebounded by their opponents, but this time they ended the game with 60% rebound rate! Defensively, Orlando double teamed LeBron James and of course, this generated a bunch of wide open shots for his team mates that ended with Miami shooting 15-24 3pts! With Dwyane Wade out, James Jones started on his place and took advantage of his shooting skills to make a bunch of treys. Orlando's offense will also have problems against Miami's defense, who is the best team on pick and roll defense, something highly problematic for Orlando's offense. The Magic committed 24 turnovers, given Miami's high pressure on the opposing ball handler and ended the game with just 0.69 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays. This should happen once again tonight. The difference for tonight's game should be on Orlando's defense, who will have a different attitude on defense and use bigger lineups this time. Dwyade Wade is also back, so the Heat will have one less shooter on the floor this time around. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be a very high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 11/16 : Miami Heat @ Charlotte Bobcats

Miami  at Charlotte

NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats Play #1 Miami is coming from a home win against Dallas last night, where they were indeed able to create problems on Dallas's pick and rolls, with the Heat being aggressive on pressuring the ball handler as usual. This is why Miami ended the game with 19 steals, while Dallas committed 24 turnovers! However, the game was relatively close because Dallas had an excellent outside shooting game with 8-12 FG from 16-23 feet and 12-28 3pts! Miami's offense did whatever they wanted with Dallas's defense, who just couldn't stop both Lebron James and Dwyane Wade from penetrating and easily scoring near the basket. On the other hand, Charlotte is coming from back to back road wins! They won at Cleveland last night against a Cavaliers team that has been struggling a lot on offense this season and that couldn't handle Charlotte's underrated defense. Not only the Bobcats pressured Kyrie Irving well, who ended the game with just 5-16 FG, as they closed well on the outside, an area that is generally Charlotte's weakness on defense, by forcing the Cavs to shoot just 4-15 3pts! Offensively, without Al Jefferson, Charlotte's guards had a heavy load once again, with Kemba Walker showing once again that he is struggling offensively by shooting just 4-19 FG! Regarding tonight's game, I believe Charlotte's defense will do a much better job than Dallas did, especially regarding the interior defense. Dallas is allowing their opponents to shoot 64% FG near the basket, while Charlotte has been excellent by allowing just 57% FG! Charlotte has also better wing defenders than Dallas, something that makes me believe that Miami's offense won't have a walk in the park tonight like they had last night. On the other side, I also expect Charlotte to struggle offensively. Their offense is clearly perimeter oriented with their guards using a lot of pick and rolls and Miami's defense is an elite unit on this area. The only area where Miami's defense struggles is on long range shooting like Dallas showed last night, but Charlotte is a subpar team on this area. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/03: Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat

Washington  at Miami

NBA - 703 Washington Wizards @ 704 Miami Heat Play #2 Washington is coming from a poor home loss against Philadelphia, thanks to a meltdown late in the game. Of course their head coach Randy Wittman wasn't happy with that: "Well, you tell me what you thought the problem was. You watched the game. Commitment to f***ing playing defense" said Randy Wittman. The Wizards were crushed by Detroit's frontcourt on their season debut and then they thought that they could outgun the Sixers on a complete wild run and gun game that ended with a ridiculous pace factor of 103! Washington led most of the game, but then allowed a 17-4 run, something that made them nervous and unable to control the game down the stretch. Worse than that, Washington is currently dealing with several injury problems. Nene Hilario is a game time decision with a calf injury, John Wall is struggling with back spasms and Marcin Gortat is still adjusting to his new team's schemes. But after the coach's rant after their last game, I expect Washington to try to make a bigger defensive effort today, even though it's never easy to do that against Miami. Curiously, Miami is coming from two games where they played lazy defense as well. Their game at Philadelphia was similar to the game that the Wizards had against the Sixers, where Miami's had a super lazy defensive commitment, as they thought that they would outgun Philadelphia. Then against Brooklyn, Miami simply couldn't fight against Brooklyn's huge size edge and grabbed just 44.8% of the rebounds! This won't happen tonight and with the Heat's usual defensive pressure on the ball handler, I believe that John Wall (if he plays) and the rest of the Wizards' offense will struggle to be efficient, as Miami will certainly show good effort on defense after two losses in a row. So, this will be a game between two teams that will be looking to make a defensive bounce back. Curiously, they have decent matchups to do that in here. Washington's lack of interior size won't be explored by Miami's undersized lineup, while this lack of size from the Wizards will actually be beneficial to defend Miami. I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 199,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 10/29: Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

NBA - 503 Chicago Bulls @ 504 Miami Heat

Play #2

Chicago looked really good on the preseason, mostly thanks to Derrick Rose returning in excellent form. He is showing a lot of aggressiveness on offense and going to the free throw line a lot. With Rose back, the Bulls are also scoring more points in transition, while Taj Gibson also surprised by being very confident on offense. Chicago is a much better team with Rose back and they went 8-0 on the preseason to show exactly that, while scoring 20, 15, 18, 11 and 13 fast break points on their last five games!

Joakim Noah is probable for this game and he is of course a much better solution on offense than Nazr Mohammed, especially regarding his flow on offense and passing skills. Looking at Miami's natural issues on rebounding due to their small lineups, Chicago will have a clear edge on offensive rebounding in here. However, the Heat also looked good on preseason with Dwyane Wade looking very well physically, helping the Heat in being an even more efficient offensive team. Of course they won't have an easy task against Chicago's elite defense, but I still believe Miami will do a good job on offense in here. Last season, the four regular season games between these two teams had totals lines of 189.5, 186, 186 and 190, so with Rose and Wade being at 100% right now, the totals line of 187 points is just too short. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Miami Heat NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

MIAMI HEAT

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	90.7	23
Offense	112.3	2
Defense	103.7	9
Rebound	47.5	28

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	55.2	1	eFG%	48.7	9
TO%	13.7	13	TO%	14.8	4
Reb%	22.2	26	Reb%	27.0	23
FT%	22.4	6	FT%	20.0	13

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	11-3	114.6	107.8
December	10-5	113.1	106.0
January	8-5	113.7	102.8
February	12-1	121.4	107.1
March	17-1	114.5	101.1
April	8-1	113.0	104.0

The Heat had a fantastic season that ended with a back to back NBA championship. Even though Miami played extremely well throughout the season, they still needed a huge effort to beat the Spurs in one of the best NBA finals ever.

After having finally won a championship on the lockout season, Lebron James and the Heat didn’t have a big incentive to impress on the regular season, as after all their “real season” would only start in April. However, Miami set an extra gear in February and ended up having the second best winning streak in league history, while ending the season with a franchise best of 66-16 record and clearly the best record in the league.

Miami was by far the best shooting team in the league with an impressive mark of 55.2% eFG% and everything started with LeBron James playing the whole season in a different planet from everybody else. Defensively, Miami’s aggressive approach on the opposing ball handlers was notorious, with the Heat ending the season by being the #4 ranked best team on creating turnovers that would usually end on phenomenal transition plays. Due to the fact that they played constantly with undersized lineups with Chris Bosh at the Center position and LeBron James at Power Forward, the Heat weren’t naturally a good rebounding team during the season. The fact that they were just #26 on offensive rebounding is perfectly normal for a team that shot 56% eFG%! On the other hand, their defensive rebounding issues were clear against imponent frontcourt units. This is why Miami lost two games in the regular season against Indiana, one game against Memphis and had two losses against Chicago.

Even though they had a normal lazy approach against some lowly teams, the truth is that Miami had a 36-4 record against losing teams and an even more impressive 15-1 record in back to back games that are normally tough physical spots.

During their historical 27-games winning streak, Miami just toyed with their opponents by setting an extra gear only when it was needed. They were down by one point with four minutes to go at home against Portland, but they outscored the Blazers 16-2 in those four minutes. Then, they were down by 27 points in the third quarter in Cleveland, just to outscore the Cavs by 30 points in the last 19 minutes of the game!

Miami added Chris Andersen to the roster and Birdman was indeed a key player in several moments of the season. He was especially a huge upgrade on offense in comparison to Joel Anthony, who disappeared on the team’s depth chart as soon as Andersen joined the Heat.

Not even when Miami decided to rest their top players at the end of the regular season, they stopped winning. A team with a starting lineup formed by Chris Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Rashard Lewis, Mike Miller and Norris Cole was good enough to win in San Antonio against the Spurs’ best team. In fact, the Heat won their last eight regular season games, while resting their key players a lot.

In the playoffs, Miami quickly dumped Milwaukee in four games, while resting Dwyane Wade in the last game of the series. Then, in the following round against Chicago, the Heat had much more problems of course, as they had already struggled against powerful frontcourts in the regular season, but after losing the Game 1 of the series at home, they won the four following games and went into the Conference final.

In the Eastern final against Indiana, Miami was unable to win back to back games, with the series being decided only on Game 7. Miami struggled on offense against the best perimeter defense in the league, while also having issue on rebounding against the powerful Pacers frontcourt. Indiana won the boards battle on the first six games of the series, with the Heat being outrebounded by 99-147 in the three games of the series where they played on the road! Roy Hibbert was a beast down low, but Miami’s aggressive defense in pressuring the ball handler managed to create 18, 21 and 21 turnovers in the last three games of the series. With Miami finally winning the boards battle against Indiana on the decisive Game 7, they were able to blowout the Pacers in that decisive game to win the Conference title.  

On the Finals against San Antonio, the whole series was a rollercoaster of emotions and adjustments made by both coaches. If Gregg Popovich is rightfully called an elite coach, then Erik Spoelstra needs to be recognized as elite as well for what he has done over the last two seasons with Miami.

Offseason Report:

With a team that won the last two NBA championships and that reached the Finals in the last three seasons, Pat Riley didn’t have a lot to do on the offseason. He just needed to make sure that the main core of the team would remain together.

For cap salary reasons, Mike Miller was amnestied, while Pat Riley convinced Ray Allen to play one more season after being the team’s hero in the decisive Game 6 in the Finals.

But Riley’s main goal for this off-season was to find a big man that could help the team’s interior play and Greg Oden was picked for that job, even though he has several health concerns around him. As a gamble without any risk for the team, Michael Beasley was also added to the roster on an unguaranteed contract.

NBA Premium Play 06/20: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

NBA - 713 San Antonio Spurs @ 714 Miami Heat 

Projected Line: 180 points

***TOP PLAY***

This was the best game of this series and perhaps one of the best NBA Finals games of all time! For the first time in three games, both teams used the same lineups from the previous game, so there was no surprise factor this time, something that was decisive when Miami started Mike Miller on Game 4 and when San Antonio started Manu Ginobili on Game 5. However, unlike what happened on the previous two games, Game 6 wasn't a fast paced game, as the pace was actually more similar to the first two games of the series. Nevertheless, with just six minutes played, the score was already 18-16!

San Antonio had shot 60% FG on Game 5, so Miami's main focus for this game was on defense. Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green wouldn't be as wide open as previously on the series and that really happened, as Green struggled to find good spots and ended the game with just 1-7 FG! Lebron James's defensive assignment was to defend Tony Parker, one of the main reasons why Parker ended with an awful 6-23 FG, but that made Lebron to be far from the basket. This change of approach and defensive positioning allowed Tim Duncan to have more space down low and he just crushed the Heat during the first half with 25 points - half of the Spurs' total points! The problem is that Duncan is 37 years old and this is why he had his best regular season in years while playing just 30 minutes per game. So, this is why he couldn't sustain all the workload that he had during the first half and faded away greatly on the second half: he didn't score a single point during the fourth quarter and overtime! Duncan and Parker were so exhausted that Popovich was forced to bench them both at the start of the fourth quarter.

With Lebron being a defensive monster against Parker, the Spurs needed a second playmaker that would be Ginobili, but he struggled heavily with eight turnovers. The trade off of getting good looks on the outside versus getting more space down low worked for the Spurs on this contest, as despite having just 5-18 3pts (series low), the Spurs scored 60 points in the paint (series high)!  On Miami's side, Lebron James had a monster fourth quarter by carrying the team on his own, but he ran out of gas at the end of game, where he ended up having some help from San Antonio's poor tactical choices and Ray Allen. Once again, the Heat's offensive flow was great with Dwyane Wade on the bench, so no wonder that Wade ended the game with a huge negative team -15 points when he was on the floor. On a lineup with Lebron James and four shooters, it's much more difficult to stop the Heat because they can't overhelp the strongside to stop James's drives to the basket or Lebron will find the open guy on the weakside.

The pace factor on this series have been the following:

G1 84.19

G2 82.71

G3 85.32

G4 92.22

G5 93.39

G6 84.14

The pace of Game 6 was way slower than on the two previous games even though both teams used small lineups. In my opinion, this was due to the fact that both teams committed to not allowing transition points to their opponents and especially because both teams are incredibly tired right now. Note that the best offensive moment of the game was right on the first six minutes of the game when they scored a combined of 34 points! Unlike the previous games, we reached a moment where both teams just can't surprise the opponent and so, both teams know what to expect from their opponent, something that only creates problems to the offensive execution of both teams. Tony Parker is hobbled and being defended by Lebron James. Tim Duncan simply can't take over the game for 40 minutes, as he faded badly in the second half of the game, while Manu Ginobili is the key on this matchup, but he is being inconsistent as well. With the extra effort from Game 6, I believe San Antonio will have offensive problems on this game.

However, Miami also saw Lebron James playing 50 minutes on Game 6 and it's almost impossible for him to have a monster efficient offensive game tonight, as he'll have to spend a ton of energy while defending Tony Parker. Dwyane Wade is also banged up and he missed the start of the third quarter on Game 6 because of a swelling on his repaired left knee. So, Miami isn't on a good spot for tonight's game. If we combine that to the fact that the pace of tonight's game will be slow and similar to Game 6's pace, the tiredness of both teams and the fact that they won't have new tricks on the bag, we will have a slow paced contest in here and the offensive struggles of both teams will turn this game into a low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play: my NBA Finals Game of the Year!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 06/18: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

NBA - 711 San Antonio Spurs @ 712 Miami Heat 

Projected Line: 195 points | Miami by 3 points

If the Spurs were more concerned with avoiding turnovers at the start of this series in order to turn the Finals into a half court battle, this completely stopped happened on Game 5, where San Antonio became a run and gun team, where they committed a series high of 19 turnovers, but compensated that with an offensive execution. In some "wired" TV segments, Coach Popovich kept saying "don't stop the pace" and "pace, pace, pace". So, it's not a surprise that we had the following sequence of pace in these Finals: 84.19; 82.71; 85.32; 92.22; 93.39!

In order to respond to Miami's small ball, the Spurs responded with a small ball lineup as well, with Manu Ginobili starting for the first time this season! These finals are being amazing when it comes to coach, with both Coach Spoelstra and Coach Popovich to adjust very well after a loss without having to change their structure. Remember last season when Coach Scott Brooks refused to change the Thunder's lineup when it was visible that Oklahoma City couldn't play big against Miami's small lineup?

Game 5 had a bunch of runs made by both teams, but the two important runs were performed by San Antonio: 15-2 at the end of the 1st quarter, transforming a 17-17 tie into a 32-19 score; and a 19-1 run between the 3rd and the 4th quarter, when the score was 75-74 in favor of the Spurs.

San Antonio naturally changed its defensive style, not giving any space to Dwyane Wade and Lebron James, something that gave space to the role players to have good numbers and that indeed happened. Wade and James combined a total of 18 assists, with Miami shooting 11-23 3pts, after a 4-12 3pts performance on Game 4! But the X factor of Game 5 was the fact that both Wade and Lebron couldn't have good individual games, with both of them missing some weird easy shots near the basket.

On the other hand, the Spurs' starting lineup combined to shoot 39-61 (64%) FG! Some of the shots made were contested and incredible ones, but the Spurs also missed some wide open shots as well! In theory, the Spurs by losing the turnover battle (19 vs 15) and getting outrebounded (grabbed just 45% of the total boards) would lose clearly this game, but that did't happen because they shot 66.4 eFG%!

I believe that we will finally have a close game down the stretch on this series, something that hasn't happened since Game 1, as the potential adjustment that Coach Spoelstra will perform today won't have the impact that other adjustments performed by Miami and San Antonio had in previous games of these Finals. I knew that San Antonio by playing small ball on Game 5 would be competitive via offense and this is why I took the Over on that game. However, I also took Miami because I thought that San Antonio's small ball would be far from the level that Miami's small ball possesses, but I was wrong as San Antonio used an almost kamikaze style by wanting to push the pace in every single play. I believe things will be similar tonight, as this is San Antonio's best chance to win the title and so, we can expect the Spurs to be super aggressive tonight. Manu Ginobili was awesome on Game 5 and the Spurs basically play with two PG's at the same time with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. On the first half, Manu allowed Parker to "rest" a bit by not having to be so aggressive, while Danny Green keeps making treys non-stop and even Tim Duncan had some glimpses of dominance. I know that Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green "won't be open tonight", but the problem is making the right close outs on him. Miami will have to abdicate on double covering Parker and  Manu as soon as they attack off the dribble and go to the rim.

On the other side, it has been mentioned that Mike Miller will leave the lineup, while Chris Anderson will return to the rotation. But the key in my opinion will be to know if Udonis Haslem or Shane Battier will be starters tonight. It has been seen that the Heat's big lineup isn't efficient against San Antonio, so I expect Battier to start tonight. Miami couldn't have a great offensive performance on Game 5 due to Dwyane Wade's and Lebron James's misses on the down low, even though they shared the ball with their teammates extremely well. With both teams playing small ball and especially with the efficient that they've showed while doing that, the current totals line is set way too low and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. The story of this series tells us that Miami will bounce back big time tonight, but even though I admit the Heat may win tonight, I expect this contest to be close, therefore I see good value on the Spurs as 6.5 points underdogs tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 San Antonio Spurs (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 06/16: Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 709 Miami Heat @ 710 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 191 points | Miami by 4 points

For the Game 4 of the Finals, Coach Spoelstra changed Miami's starting lineup by benching Udonis Haslem and starting Mike Miller. Chris Anderson didn't play a single minute on Game 4, so the Heat played the whole game with small ball lineups. Miami's adjustments were done in consequence to what San Antonio had done on Game 3, where the Spurs were giving a lot of space to Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot from the outside. On Game 4, Miami's offense was much more aggressive than on the previous games. They pushed the ball, they scored points in transition and not even a poor start of the game (5-15 run) stopped them. Then, Dwyane Wade woke up and played at a great level. 

On the other hand, San Antonio can only produce offensively if Tony Parker plays well. He made some amazing shots and he would penetrate into the basket and then pass the ball to an open shooter on the outside. But Parker was too tired on the second half, with no explosion, so he was only able to make some assists. The Spurs had a lot of problems to outplay the Heat's undersized lineups, who was very quick in double teaming and closing the passing lanes. Tiago Splitter was well defended down low and he lacks the skills to make the right decisions under pressure. Tim Duncan couldn't dominate down low and of course, San Antonio couldn't handle Miami's offensive flow. This change in Miami's style caused the Game 4 to be the fastest paced game of the Finals with a 92.22 pace, after pace factors of 84.19, 82.71 and 85.32 on Games 1, 2 and 3.

I believe that after San Antonio surprising Miami on Game 3 and the opposite happening on Game 4, I believe won't be able to surprise the opponent tonight. Now with Tony Parker hobbled, Manu Ginobili struggling and Tim Duncan starting to show his real age, San Antonio can't handle Miami anymore. San Antonio's defensive strategy of protecting the rim, packing the paint and give space to Lebron James and Dwyane Wade ended with Game 4 in my opinion. Both Lebron and Wade are now in attack mode and I believe this will continue tonight. What the Spurs can do tonight is give double coverage to both players, but this will mean sacrifice the weakside defense and both Lebron and Wade are excellent passers and they will easily find the right teammates. Note that the Heat shot just 4-12 3pts on Game 4, after shooting 8-25, 10-19 and 8-18 3pts on the first three games of the series! They still won Game 4 easily because both Lebron and Wade attempted a combined of 50 shots! Mike Miller would supposedly spread the floor, but he attempt just one shot in 21 minutes! But if San Antonio tries to change its defensive approach tonight, we can expect Miami's role players to have a big game on their outside shooting, just like it happened on last year's finals against the Thunder! Either way, the Spurs' defense will struggle.

On the other hand, San Antonio's offense should in theory try what Indiana did to Miami on the Conference Final: pound down low, crush the offensive glass and have a bunch of free throws, but they don't have Indiana's powerful big men, as Tiago Splitter isn't David West and Tim Duncan lacks Roy Hibbert's raw power. So, the solution for the Spurs is to play small ball and this is what Coach Popovich has done for most of the time on the Finals, but San Antonio's small ball lacks the dynamic that Miami's small lineups have. While Parker was physically at 100%, San Antonio was able to create good looks, but nothing in comparison to Miami's offense given the aggressive way that the Heat's defense can be aggressive and force turnovers. The adjustments that Popovich might attempt tonight won't create enough damage to make the Heat struggle. Tonight's game is likely to be a duel between two teams playing small ball and Miami is simply the better team in playing like that. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat in here. Also with both teams using small lineups for most of the game, I expect the game to be relatively as fast as Game 4, with both teams consequently producing decent offense once again. So, I'll be taking the Over in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708/709 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker