NBA Free Premium Play 04/09: Chicago Bulls @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Chicago  at Minnesota

NBA - 715 Chicago Bulls @ 716 Minnesota Timberwolves ***FREE Premium Play*** The Timberwolves are coming from a pretty nice win vs. SAS last night, but unfortunately (for them), it has been tough to sustain the same level of effort in consecutive days as they are 0-7 ATS in L7 spots of b2b games. Without K. Martin and C. Budinger, the Wolves don’t have a lot of perimeter shooting on their current roster… they went just 5-15 3pts last night and are shooting just 23-78 from 3pts (29.5%) in L4 games. They were able to defeat the Spurs mostly because of their huge edge on the boards w/ 57.4% reb/rate%! The Spurs simply didn’t "show" any kind of energy last night… This kind of “physical edge” for the Wolves simply won’t happen against the Bulls tonight! CHI is playing some great basketball as of late and against a MIN’s offense that can’t hurt from the outside, I expect the Bulls to be pretty decent defensively. MIN won the first H2H @CHI early on the but note that both Hinrich & Noah didn’t play that game and we all know the importance of these two players for the Bulls (especially Noah). I expect the Bulls to be more “physical” than the Wolves and my fair line for this contest is CHI-6. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Chicago Bulls (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/23: Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Phoenix  at Minnesota

NBA - 703 Phoenix Suns @ 704 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #2 I really expect this contest to be a classic shootout w/ +220 points scored. The Wolves are playing w/ some great offensive flow as of late… Ricky Rubio has been more aggressive on the offensive end w/ success while rookie G. Dieng can run the floor pretty well which is good news for MIN’s great transition game. For this contest, MIN has a favorable matchup vs. PHX’s undersized frontcourt. Kevin Love torched the Suns in the last H2H w/ 10-22 FG, 3-6 3pts & 10-14 FT’s for 33 points and for today, I expect the Wolves to dominate the glass w/ Kevin Love having a great edge on his individual matchup. PHX’s is coming from b2b “good” defensive performances vs. ORL & DET but I really don’t think it was a considerable improvement from them. Note that they have faced a lowly ORL team playing @b2b spot without Nelson and w/ Vucevic being ejected and playing only 9minutes…obviously, the Magic didn’t have any chance in the 2nd half and PHX held them to just 41 pts!  In the last game vs. DET, PHX was completely outrebounded (had just 40% reb/rate) but they benefited from the fact that DET couldn’t hit outside shots (something normal for them) w/ 4-16 3pts and especially, DET was miserable from the line w/ 10-26 FT’s (38.5% mark!!!). On the other side, MIN had tremendous problems to stop opp. guards of attacking them off the dribble and convert @the rim. DAL & DEN combined to score 51 fast break pts & 118 points in the paint against them!! Yep, PHX have Dragic & Bledsoe ready to punish them today… W/ this contest being a run and gun game and with both teams having some considerable edges @offense, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 218 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Milwaukee  at Minnesota

NBA - 557 Milwaukee Bucks @ 558 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #3 Yesterday, the Bucks defeated the Magic in a game where MIL’s head coach Larry Drew really wanted to win the game as he played MIL’s best player B. Knight for 44 minutes! Today’s contest will be MIL’s 4th game in 5 nights and it will be on the road so we are dealing with a team primed for a letdown. This 15-pts spread line is a fair line IMO due to MIL’s bad spot & MIN’s urgency in bouncing back after losing vs. TOR. However, I feel that we are getting some value w/ Under in this contest… MIL is an awful defensive team but their biggest weakness is to defend 3pts… Since the All Star break, they are allowing 40.7% while for the season, they are indeed the worst 3pts defensive team allowing 38.6%! The good news is that MIN isn’t a good 3pts shooting team – ranked #26 and in L10 games, they are shooting just 33.2% - ranked #25 in the league. MIN is instead a team that wants to pound down low and the Bucks are a decent defensive team protecting the rim… On the other end, w/ B. Knight coming from a huge effort last night, I don’t think that he will be efficient tonight. MIN L2 games vs. NYK & vs. TOR happened mostly because they couldn’t defend 3pts as NYK = 11-27 3pts & TOR = 14-24 but MIL’s is far from being a good outside shooting team!  Actually, in L3 games, MIL has shot 5-20, 4-16 & 8-27 from 3pts! My fair line for this contest is 210/212 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 557/558 Under 216 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/17: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors

Minnesota  at Toronto

NBA - 805 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 806 Toronto Raptors Play #2 I understand that the Raptors are playing really well since they traded away Rudy Gay to Sacramento, but IMO they are a bit overrated right now and especially, they won’t be “ready” for the style that MIN displays on the court. Tonight’s game snapped an 11-games streak for TOR in which they have faced Eastern Conference teams… that says it all about how relatively easy their schedule has been during this 11-games span (they had only 3 “tough games” vs. MIA & IND). TOR’s defense has been excellent; but again, just look for their opponents Offensive Rtg. rankings: NYK #19 CHI #29 IND #17 WAS #21 MIA #2 DET #20 BKN #18 MIL #30 BOS #24 They have faced only one Top 10 offensive team in the league! I’m not saying that MIN offense is near the level of MIA’s offense but MIN is ranked #8 right now and they will cause more problems for TOR. TOR’s frontline is a bit banged up for tonight’s contest: Tyler Hansbrough most likely will miss the game; Amir Johnson has a bad ankle and Jonas Valanciunas played sick in the last game @TOR. In the last game @BOS, TOR was completely dominated by BOS frontcourt – they had only 43.5% reb/rate and J. Sullinger completely owned them w/ 7-14 FG, 10-14 FT, 25 pts & 20 rebounds! Well, MIN has Kevin Love & Nikola Pekovic on their frontcourt… MIN is coming from a bad loss at home vs. SAC. I had a play w/ SAC+10 in the game because in a fast paced contest, this Kings team is a dangerous opponent for any team in the league and they simply outgunned the Wolves. TOR isn’t used to play in such fast tempo and I think that tonight’s flow of the game will favor MIN. Rick Adelman was upset after another bad defensive performance from his team: "We're so hands-off defensively," coach Rick Adelman said. "It almost takes an act of Congress to foul somebody. You have to get after people in this league." So I expect MIN to be more active defensively tonight while their edge down low on the offensive end will be enough to win on the road and that’s why I’m taking them tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 01/15: Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Sacramento  at Minnesota

NBA - 711 Sacramento Kings @ 712 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #4 SAC really didn’t have a chance last night against IND...I have to say that few teams would have a chance against a Pacers’ team playing at home w/ 3 days off to rest and prepare the game. The bright spot was D. Cousins posting a monster line of 12-21 FG 31pts, 13 reb e 2 assists in just 30 minutes against the best interior defensive players in the league and because the game was a blowout early on the 4th quarter, SAC’s coach decided to “rest” the starters so we have a SAC team not involved in a awful b2b spot. This 10-points blowout line for MIN is a bit overrated IMO, because MIN defense by no means is “near” of the level displayed by IND defense last night and so, MIN offense would have to simply outscore SAC’s offense and in a potential run and gun game, I don’t think that will happen quite easy… MIN indeed had some blowout wins vs. inferior level teams but note that the majority of those wins were against teams not used to play in fast paced affairs like CHA, MIL or BOS who have lost 92-119, 95-117 or 88-106 @MIN. This contest will be a run and gun game, both teams won’t put a lot of effort on defense and so, SAC offense is extremely dangerous in this potential scenario and that’s why I’m taking them tonight as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Sacramento Kings (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 12/11: Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Philadelphia  at Minnesota

NBA - 709 Philadelphia 76ers @ 710 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #3 Yesterday I took Minnesota to win at Detroit for an easy win, as the Wolves with their uptempo game completely explored Detroit's lack of speed in the front with 10-13 FG on cuts for a nhice 1.57 PPP! The Wolves also created nice look on the outside and Kevin Love was the key for that with 4-6 3pts! Minnesota is a great offensive team to watch whenever they are efficient from long range and last night was the case! Minnesota will now host Philadelphia and so, this game will involve a lot of running. After all, we are talking about two of the fastest paced teams in the league. Philadelphia's defense won't be able to stop Minnesota down low, on transition and on 3pts shooting! I took the Over on the Sixers' last game and I lost big, but it wasn't because suddenly the Sixers started to defend well. In fact, it was because the Clippers couldn't hit a single outside shot with a terrible 1-10 on corner treys! Philadelphia is indeed struggling to be effective on long range with a combined of 12-64 (19%) 3pts on their last three games! However, they have a good transition game and know how to attack the rim well, two areas where Minnesota's defense struggles, as they are #25 in the league with 15.2 fast break points allowed per game and #27 in points in the paint allowed with 45.7! So, this is also a good spot for a decent offensive game from Philadelphia! Minnesota is coming from a nice win and they will score so easily today that they will relax on defense, turning this game into a very high scoring contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 11/25: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers

Minnesota  at Indiana

NBA - 703 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 704 Indiana Pacers Play #1 Indiana is coming from a fun game against Philadelphia, where they won without making a big effort. This was by far Indiana's fastest paced game, mostly thanks to Philadelphia's style, but Indiana didn't have a problem with that at all. However, Indiana's defense still did a good job in allowing just 15-38 (39.5%) FG at the rim, while stopping Philadelphia's transitions as well. The Sixers still scored 19 fast break points, but with a poor efficiency of 5-18 FG! Offensively, Indiana had an easy task with 38 FT attempts, while their starting lineup also shot well with 31-57 (54%) FG! Minnesota played at Houston on their last game, while playing their fourth game in five nights. So, the Rockets didn't have to do a lot to win the game. With James Harden out, Aaron Brooks entered into God like mode with 10-14 FG and 6-7 3pts with 26 points in 25 minutes! Houston shot 17-31 3pts and so, they didn't have a problem in winning this contest. Minnesota managed to keep things interesting due to Houston's 24 turnovers that resulted in 23 fast break points from Minnesota! Regarding tonight's game, Indiana is the better team, but Minnesota should offer a tough matchup for them lately. Minnesota's defense has been struggling to stop the opposing perimeter offense, especially regarding 3pts shooting. However, Indiana is very inconsistent on this area with 35-116 (30%) 3pts on their last six games, so the Wolves should be fine on this area tonight.  Minnesota's post up defense is good as they are #7 in the league while allowing 0.76 PPP, so they should limit Indiana's big men down low tonight. On the other hand, Indiana has been struggling to get back into defense where they are "just" #12 in the league on this area, while they indeed struggle on pick and roll ball handler defense, where their strategy is to allow their opponents to shoot from the 16-23 feet area. The fact that Kevin Love is a great outside shooting will force David West to get out of his comfort zone and so, I believe Minnesota will be a dangerous matchup for Indiana tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Wolves in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 11/23: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets

Minnesota  at Houston

NBA - 711 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 712 Houston Rockets Play #5 Houston is coming from a mega game at Dallas, where they lost at the end on a super high scoring contest. Dwight Howard had a massive game and started the contest with 11-11 FG, but he had a super easy matchup against Samuel Dalembert and DeJuan Blair. Things will be much tougher against Nikola Pekovic tonight. In fact, both the Rockets and the Wolves defend post up plays quite well. Adding to this the fact that Minnesota is #7 in the league on 3pts defense with just 34.8% 3pts allowed, the Wolves' defense should cause issues to the Rockets' offense. I believe both teams will indeed have some problems on offense, given the match ups on tonight's game. For this game to go over the total posted, this game would need to be played at an insane pace, with both teams wanting to push up the pace a lot. After what happened to the Wolves against Washington and the LA Clippers, where they played fast, tried to outscored their opponents and ended up getting crushed on transitions, even though they led the league on transition defense, I don't think Minnesota will actually want to push up the pace that much against a team that knows how to play in transition and how to take advantage of open space on the perimeter. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 216,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/15: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

Minnesota  at Denver

NBA - 713 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 714 Denver Nuggets Play #8 Denver is coming from a home win against the Lakers, but they weren't convincing at all in that win. Their perimeter shooting was poor as usual, with only Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler being a bit more consistent on long range shooting. What saved the Nuggets were their 23 offensive rebounds, as even their decision to pound the Lakers down low didn't work greatly, as they shot just 19-37 (51.4%) FG at the rim and 9-19 FG from 4-9 feet. Considering that they struggled to be effective in the paint against a Lakers undersized team that was on a back to back spot, these aren't good news when they will be facing a much tougher Minnesota team tonight. First of all, Minnesota is #1 in the league on transition defense, so Denver won't be able to score their usual fast break points and that's going to be a massive problem for them tonight, as their outside shooting is poor, their offense on half court is also very unimaginative, so they generally need to be effective down low and on transition to have good offensive games. As that won't likely happen tonight, I believe Denver will struggle on offense in here.  On the other side, I expect Minnesota's offense to suffer a letdown tonight, after a massive offensive game at home against Cleveland last Wednesday. Minnesota was completely "in the zone" in that game, with Corey Brewer shooting 5-5 3pts and Robbie Hummel on his first start ever shooting 2-4 3pts! Even Ricky Rubio shot 1-1 3pts! No way they will have two back to back performances like this! Denver's transition defense was ridiculous at Phoenix where they allowed 37 fast break points to the Suns. Their head coach Brian Shaw was so furious at his team that Denver bounced back to allow just 8 and 5 fast break points on their last two games. I also believe that Denver's athletic frontcourt will cause problems to the Wolves' offense, as when they aren't able to put the ball with quality down low, they struggle to generate any kind of offensive flow. Therefore, I believe we have the right spot and matchup to take the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Minnesota Timberwolves NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	92.8	11
Offense	102.9	25
Defense	105.4	13
Rebound	50.8	10

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	47.3	26	eFG%	51.1	24
TO%	13.8	14	TO%	15.0	3
Reb%	27.4	12	Reb%	26.0	11
FT%	22.6	5	FT%	18.7	5

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	7-8	102.5	102.9
December	7-5	106.2	104.3
January	3-12	103.2	113.0
February	3-10	105.1	108.6
March	6-11	103.9	107.9
April	5-5	106.5	107.2

Last season was supposed to be the year where the Timberwolves would finally fight for a playoff spot for the first time since the Kevin Garnett Era ended. They were able to get a respected coach in Rick Adelman, while their projected starting lineup was a pretty one on paper, with Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Love, Andrei Kirilenko, Brandon Roy/Chase Budinger and Ricky Rubio.

But everything that could have possibly gone wrong with the Wolves last season really went wrong. Everything started with Kevin Love breaking his hand in a pre-practice workout with his personal trainer at his home on October 17. Here is the injury report of the Wolves throughout the season: Kevin Love broke his hand twice and only played in 18 games, Ricky Rubio missed the first 25 games of the season after his brutal ACL knee injury, Nikola Pekovic missed 20 games, Brandon Roy missed 77 games, Chase Budinger missed 59 games and even Andre Kirilenko missed 18 games.

The Wolves were still able to be competitive early on the season and at the end of December, they had a respectable 14-13 record and this good performance was anchored by a terrific Wolves defense that was #6 in the league in defensive efficiency at the time. But as soon as their defense regressed, Minnesota couldn’t remain being competitive and they ended the month with an awful 113.0 defensive rating and its correspondent poor 3-12 record.

Offensively, the Wolves were a subpar team all season long, as they just couldn’t shoot behind the arc to save their lives! They ended the regular season dead last in 3pts% with 30.5% and so, their opponents focused in limiting their inside game due to their inability to shoot from long range.

At one point in March, Rick Adelman was “forced” to use a starting lineup with the following players for eight straight games: Greg Stiemsma, Derrick Williams, Mickael Gelabale, Luke Ridnour and Ricky Rubio. You can’t be competitive with such little talent on court and the Wolves lost six of those eight games with their losses coming by an average of 15.8 points.

After their 14-13 start of the season, Minnesota won just 17 of their remaining 55 games, but I just can’t blame Rick Adelman for any of this. He had to deal with some terrible personal problems of his own and with so many injuries, nobody could have done much better than Adelman did. It was another lost season for the Wolves, but this time their expectations were legit.

Offseason Report:

Possibly the best move that the Timberwolves made on this offseason wasn’t related with any player, but with the fact that they replaced David Kahn with former coach Flip Saunders, who takes over on constructing the roster! More than praising Flip Saunders, I’m calling out the horrible job that former GM David Kahn did on the organization over the last few years with terrible draft picks and poor trades as well.

The Wolves had the resigning of both Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko on their minds, but they were only able to lock up Pekovic. They reportedly offered Kirilenko the mid-level exception in a three-year deal, but he declined after opting out and ended up in Brooklyn on a 3M per season contract. On the other hand, the Wolves were smart in the process of Pekovic and resigned him on a 60M 5-year deal.

The SG position was very problematic for the Wolves last season and so, they decided to sign free-agent Kevin Martin on the off-season. To replace Andrei Kirilenko, Minnesota expect Chase Budinger to be healthy this season, while they were also able to get Corey Brewer on free agency, besides drafting the problematic Shabazz Muhammad as well.

For the frontcourt, Nikola Pekovic was their main target on the offseason and they got him, while they also added Ronny Turiaf and drafted Gorgui Dieng to give them some depth at the center position.

Season Preview:

The Wolves have potential to surprise and to make a run to the last playoffs spots in the West, but if everything goes wrong with injuries once again, then the team won’t be able to be competitive.

NBA Premium Play 04/13: Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 507 Phoenix Suns @ 508 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: 205 points | Minnesota by 2 points

Minnesota will play tonight their fourth game in five nights, having played at Utah last night. In fact, their last three games were on the road, as they had previously played at Golden State and at LA against the Clippers. Even though this is a poor spot for the Wolves, I have to say that they rotated their roster well last night against the Jazz, if we exclude Greg Stiemsma, who played 41 minutes yesterday.

On the other side, Phoenix has a great chance to be competitive tonight, especially because Michael Beasley won't play. It's interesting to note that the Suns were very competitive on their last two games. They lost in the last second against Houston at home and then, they went to Dallas to beat the Mavericks by double digits points! This reveals a good mindset for them, as they are still fighting, even though they have been eliminated from playoff contention a long time ago.

The last word goes to Suns interim head coach Lindsey Hunter on breaking the 10-game losing streak at Dallas: “I think it was important for our guys to feel good. We played a really good game (Tuesday night at Houston). Unfortunately, we couldn’t win it. We lost it in a very peculiar way. I’ve never lost a game like that in my life so that was a first. But I think the guys responded really well in the back-to-back and they (the Mavericks) are a pretty good team out there fighting for a playoff spot possibly. Our guys responded and played well.”

Both teams are quite competent on offense in pick and roll ball handler plays and it's curious that both teams are exactly terrible in defending the same kind of play. Therefore, both Minnesota and Phoenix should have good offensive performances on offense on pick and rolls, with Ricky Rubio and Goran Dragic leading the way. Both the Wolves and the Suns have been also horrible on transition defense lately, so I expect both teams to score a nice amount of fast break points in here as well. I expect a high scoring game in here, so I'll be taking the Over on this contest. I also believe the Suns will continue being competitive on their games tonight against Minnesota, who is on a poor spot, therefore I'll be taking Phoenix in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Phoenix Suns (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/12: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 723 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 724 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: 200 points

This matchup is perfect for a high scoring game. Minnesota is currently showing no effort on defense and that was evident on their last two games where they allowed 105 and 111 to the Warriors and the Clippers. They also allowed 18, 20 and 22 fast break points on their last three games. Utah is coming from a home loss against Oklahoma City, where their frontcourt was outmuscled by a powerful and focused Thunder's frontcourt that only allowed the Jazz to score 36 points in the paint, even though they were effective with 12-15 FG at the rim.

Things will be much easier for Utah tonight. Minnesota has one of the worst rim defenses in the league and they also allowed 1.00 PPP on post up plays over their last 10 games! On the other side, Utah's pick and roll ball handler defense has been terrible as well with 0.82 PPP allowed on their last 10 games. Their transition defense has been also quite lazy lately, so the Wolves's backcourt led by Ricky Rubio has also a good matchup to have a nice offensive matchup tonight. Therefore, I expect a high scoring affair in here and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Over 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 04/09: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors

Minnesota  at Golden State

NBA - 667 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 668 Golden State Warriors Projected Line: 205 points Minnesota has been playing much better lately. Ricky Rubio has been leading his team very well and the Wolves are now even shooting the ball rather well! Nikola Pekovic has been named Western Conference player of the week and Minnesota with their uptempo game has been able to have good offensive numbers by averaging a 111.2 offensive rate on their last four games. Defensively, I'm not seeing a lot of effort from them. Their rim protection hasn't been great, while they are being super aggressive on the perimeter looking for turnovers, so when they can't steal the ball, their opponents easily score. They are averaging a defensive rating of 105.4 on their last four games, an average number but they faced poor offensive teams during this span of games: Boston (back to back spot), Milwaukee (slumping), Detroit and Toronto. On the other side, Golden State is coming from a home loss against Utah, so I expect them to come fired up for this game. Therefore, I expect them to take advantage of Minnesota's defensive regression tonight. On the other hand, I also expect the Wolves to have a good offensive spot for tonight. The Warriors's pick and roll ball handler defense has been terrible lately, with Stephen Curry and the rest of the Warriors's backcourt showing little effort on this area on defense. Minnesota led by Ricky Rubio is playing at a good level and they should pound the Warriors's defense on the pick and rolls tonight. Both teams have been having good transition numbers, with the Warriors averaging 15.1 fast break points per game, while the Wolves are averaging 13.8 points during the same spot. I expect a fast paced contest in here, as that is the style of both teams. On their last game, the Warriors allowed Utah to control the flow of the game and so, they allowed the game to be played at a slow pace. After losing that game, I expect Golden State to show up and to force a fast pace tonight, something that should result in a high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 667/668 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/01: Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 737 Boston Celtics @ 738 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: Minnesota by 8 points

I expect the Celtics to heavily struggle tonight on a very poor spot for them. They are coming from a blowout loss in NY last night against the Knicks, where their offense showed absolutely no flow with just 12 assists. Paul Pierce is doubtful for tonight, so things will only get worse for them on offense. I believe Jeff Green will try to carry the Celtics's offense on his own and besides the fact that he is quite inconsistent, the Wolves have Andrei Kirilenko to guard him to limit Green's effectiveness on offense tonight. Therefore, I expect another poor offensive showing from the Celtics tonight, especially when they have no presence on down low. They will have to settle for jump shots as usual, but Minnesota is #6 in the league on spot up defense and should be able to limit the Celtics's offense very well tonight. 

On the other hand, I believe Minnesota will be able to have a decent offensive game tonight. Ricky Rubio is in excellent form and he is leading his team's offense to some nice performances as of late. The Celtics's defense seems to be regressing lately as well, something normal considering they have been playing without Kevin Garnett and they will be also without Paul Pierce tonight. The Wolves's offense bases most of their offense on pick and rolls and the truth is that Boston's defense has been also regressing on this area as well. They have been an elite defensive team on pick and roll ball handler plays throughout the whole season with 0.70 PPP, but they have allowed 0.81 PPP on this kind of plays over their last 10 games! I believe Minnesota will take advantage of their better spot for tonight and the Celtics's terrible offense to get a comfortable win over Boston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 738 Minnesota Timberwolves (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/29: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Oklahoma City  at Minnesota

NBA - 861 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 862 Minnesota Timberwolves Projected Line: 206 points There are no doubts that Minnesota's offense is currently on their best run of the season and even though they have been playing without Kevin Love, the Wolves had offensive ratings of 119.96, 108.23, 120.83 and 112.64 on their last four games! You can see that they are playing great offense by just looking at their recent assists numbers: 28, 27, 27, 26 and 23 assists on their last five games! This offensive improvement is the result of their guards being in great form right now, especially Ricky Rubio. Also with Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko back from injuries, the Wolves have now some inside scoring punch as well. The Wolves are playing at a faster tempo than they were earlier on the season, they are gambling on the defensive end in order to create turnovers and then pound their opponents with quick transition plays. This is why the Wolves are averaging 13.6 fast break points per game over their last 10 games, while their season average is just 11.9! Minnesota will be a tough test for a Thunder's defense that has been amazing on their last four games with an average defensive rating of 91.0! That's some awesome numbers, but I believe they are overrated if we look at Oklahoma City's recent opponents and their spots, while I don't believe that the Thunder's mindset for tonight will be to try to perform a defensive shutdown to the Wolves. In those four games, Oklahoma City faced Memphis in a pure half court battle, in a typical grind out contest involving the Grizzlies. Also note that Oklahoma City was on a back to back spot at the time, after having had another tough battle against Denver in the night before. Then, the Thunder had to travel to face a depleted Magic team that had no talent to score against them. Finally, on their last two games, they played Portland, who was playing their last game of a road trip, while they were also playing their fifth game in seven days, and Washington who was also in a bad spot and had John Wall super tired after playing 45 minutes against Memphis on his team's previous game. The Wolves are rested for tonight's game, they will play at home, so the Thunder will be finally facing an opponent that isn't dead tired or shorthanded! On the other side, as good as the Wolves's offense has been playing, their defense is just flat terrible right now! They are constantly using undersized lineups and their perimeter players can't stop their opposing guards to dribble past them! Therefore, I expect a big game from Russell Westbrook tonight. Minnesota has been able to stop poor offensive teams like Phoenix or Detroit, but when they face decent offensive teams, their defensive struggles are quickly exposed. This is why the Lakers scored 120 points against them, while Chicago, Sacramento, Houston and Indiana also had recently good offensive performances against them with 104, 101, 108 and 107 points scored. On the last game between these two teams, played in Oklahoma City, the game ended with 238 points scored, in a battle where both teams scored more than 20 fast break points each! I expect something similar to happen in tonight's game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 861/862 Over 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/27: Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 763 Los Angeles Lakers @ 764 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 1 point

The Lakers will be playing tonight without Metta World Peace, so they will use an undersized starting backcourt formed by Kobe Bryant, Jodie Meeks and Steve Nash. This will be a good matchup for Minnesota, who also uses a 3-guards rotation on their starting lineup. With the Lakers's defense being lazy and having no foot speed, Minnesota's guards will be able to attack off the dribble, while having good edges on pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions on tonight's game. Minnesota will also have another clear edge on turnovers, as the Lakers are very prone to commit them and the Wolves have been very good on pressuring the opposing ball handler and then easily score on fast breaks. 

Even though the Lakers easily defeated the Wolves in the first two games of the season, the truth is that I don't expect the same to happen tonight. The first contest was weird, as Minnesota had better FG% number than the Lakers but got completely outrebounded by the LA team. On the second contest, Andrei Kirilenko didn't play and Nikola Pekovic got injured and played just 9 minutes, so the Timberwolves couldn't be competitive. This time, I expect the Wolves to take advantage of the Lakers's poor backcourt defense to torch them with their small ball, turning this game into a very competitive one. Therefore, I'll be taking Minnesota tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 764 Minnesota Timberwolves (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 03/26: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Detroit Pistons

NBA - 653 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 654 Detroit Pistons

Projected Line: Minnesota by 3 points | 199 points

***ADDED PLAY***

Minnesota is definitely playing much better basketball than Detroit right now and even though we are talking about a team that is 8-27 on the road, I believe the Wolves should be favored on this contest. Detroit had a phase where they were competitive, but that hasn't been happening lately due to some atrocious defense. They are averaging a defensive rating of 117.4 since the All Star break and that's simply absurd! Greg Monroe has stopped defending, while the Pistons's perimeter defense has been even worse. Not only Detroit is currently the worst 3pts defensive team in the league since the All Star break with 42.5% 3pts allowed, as their pick and roll ball handler defense is currently non-existent! Detroit has been poor all season long on defending pick and rolls by being #23 in the league with 0.83 PPP allowed, but they numbers since the All Star got even worse! They simply couldn't stop Kemba Walker on their last game, who ended the contest with 10-20 FG and 25 points!

The struggles of the Pistons's defense are obviously good news for Minnesota, who has a healthy Ricky Rubio to torch Detroit's defense tonight. I expect the Wolves's backcourt to dominate this game. Jose Calderon has no foot speed to defend Minnesota's guards, while Brandon Knight returned from injury on the team's last game against the Bobcats, but he looked completely out of form with 4-10 FG, 4 assists and 5 turnovers! On the frontcourt, the duel will be interesting, but I don't expect Minnesota to get outplayed on this area. Detroit is now rotating more their players and in some moments on their game at Charlotte, the Pistons played with Jonas Jerebko and Charlie Villanueva together on the frontcourt. This also helps to explain why Detroit is struggling on defense so much right now. On the other side, Minnesota with Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko should have talent on the frontcourt to handle Detroit down low, while the Wolves's superior backcourt should make the difference on this game. Therefore, I'll be taking Minnesota tonight and the Over in a shootout contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653 Minnesota Timberwolves (PK) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

ADDED PLAY:

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Over 195 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 03/24: Chicago Bulls @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 705 Chicago Bulls @ 706 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: Minnesota by 6 points

Chicago is coming from a tough but very important home win over Indiana last night, where they played without Derrick Rose and Rip Hamilton (as usual), but also without Joakim Noah, who is struggling once again with his plantar fasciitis. To make things worse for the Bulls, Nate Robinson was ejected almost at the end of the third quarter, Daequan Cook also got injured in the fourth quarter, while Kirk Hinrich keeps struggling with his knee injury and it even looks like that he re-aggravated his injury last night. Therefore, the spot for the Bulls tonight isn't enough even though none of their players were on the court for over 40 minutes last night. However, the game was very physical, so the required effort of the Bulls's players last night was still considerable.  

Matchup wise, the Wolves can be also a tough matchup for Chicago. Minnesota's offense is based on pick and rolls, spot ups and transitions. Chicago's transition defense is terrible and it won't get any better soon, with Nazr Mohammed on the starting lineup due to Joakim Noah's injury. Besides that, the Bulls haven't been good on pick and roll ball handler defense this season. That's not a big surprise considering Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli are playing major minutes together on the backcourt. They are #16 in the league with 0.79 PPP allowed for the season, but their numbers have gotten worse lately with 0.91 PPP allowed since the All Star break! Therefore, Minnesota will have two very interesting edges on offense tonight. On the other side, Chicago's offense will have an edge on offensive boards, as Minnesota isn't a good defensive rebounding team, while Carlos Boozer will also have a decent game tonight. However, that doesn't seem to be enough for the Bulls to be competitive tonight on a poor spot and with so many absences/banged up players right now. Minnesota is playing quite well lately and they are currently quite healthy for the massive amount of injuries that they've had this season. They have nice spot and matchup edges tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Minnesota Timberwolves (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker