NBA Free Premium Play 04/13: Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers

Memphis  at LA Lakers

NBA - 713 Memphis Grizzlies @ 714 Los Angeles Lakers ***FREE Premium Play*** Classic game of losing team vs. playoff bound team that just can’t afford to lose this contest! Two different styles are going to face each other but IMO, facing the 76ers in the last game was a great warm-up for the Grizzlies tonight… I really liked the fact that in that game, MEM didn’t care to attempt three pointers…they were focused in pounding the awful PHI interior defense and indeed they crushed them w/ 60 points in the paint! Actually, they scored the same number of pts in the paint vs. MIA and obviously, I expect the same mindset from them tonight… LAL have only in J. Hill a capable frontcourt player so, good luck in stopping MEM’s big men… MEM’s deep bench will help us as well… their second unit scored 65 points vs. PHI! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713 Memphis Grizzlies (-12) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 04/06: Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers

LA Lakers  at LA Clippers

NBA - 503 Los Angeles Lakers @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers Play #2 My first lean for this contest was LAL+16 as surely, the Lakers want to avenge the humiliation suffered at the hands of the Clippers in the last h2h (LAC won 142-94). However, how in the hell the Lakers’ defense will be able to slow down LAC’s attack? P. Gasol & K. Kaman are OUT for this contest so LAL won’t have kind of interior defense…in L2 games, LAL allowed 52 and 64 points in the paint! Just have a look for DAL’s big men offensive production against them: “Nowitzki had 27 points on 11-of-14 shooting, Brandan Wright scored a season-high 23 while going 10 of 10 from the field and former Kings center Samuel Dalembert came up with 14 points and 14 rebounds.” LAC will score so easy in transition and near the basket that I just can’t go with the Lakers! In that game, LAL scored “only” 94 points and this is something that I expect LAL’s to improve in here… LAL is playing @ tremendous fast pace lately! They are averaging 22.6 fast break points per game in L5 contests! Obviously, we need them to hit some three pointers but note that they are sharing the ball quite well w/ 26.8 assists per game in those 5 games! We can expect this contest to be a crazy fast paced contest…according to my numbers, the last H2H between these two teams was the FASTEST PACED game of this season! With the Clippers scoring so easily via transition & down low and with the Lakers w/ their outside shooting, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 224.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/09: Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Lakers

Chicago  at LA Lakers

NBA - 803 Chicago Bulls @ 804 Los Angeles Lakers Play #2 LAL is returning home after a 3-game road trip in which they were competitive. They’ve won their last 2 games @CLE & @PHI. However, this is not an extraordinary achievement because CLE is in a mess and PHI is...well, they are the 76ers… What really impressed me was the way the Lakers have been outrebounded lately: L5 games = amazing 43.4% reb/rate%! In those 2 wins, LAL had just 36.2% & 44.4% reb/rate%! They were able to win because their opponents simply wanted to “outgun” the Lakers and ended up taking 33 and 32 three pointers! This won’t happen today w/ CHI as they are ranked just #27 in 3pts attempted per game and their primary focus will be down low w/ Noah & Gibson! I’ve just confirmed that Boozer is out and Gibson will start in his place. I really expect CHI to crush LAL on the glass & near the basket in here vs. LAL rim defense that is allowing 68% FG at the rim L5 games. The first h2h between these two teams was a complete ball game w/ CHI winning in OT but note that LAL’s MVP was Pau Gasol: 8-15 FG for 20 pts, 19 reb, 5 blocks and 3 steals! This won’t happen today as Gasol is injured, and so I expect CHI to win by +6 pts and that’s why I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Chicago Bulls (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/19: Los Angeles Lakers @ Toronto Raptors

LA Lakers  at Toronto

NBA - 801 Los Angeles Lakers @ 802 Toronto Raptors Play #1 I expect this contest to be quite similar to the one that the Raptors played already this week against the Bucks and ended up w/ 210 points, b/c TOR’s mindset will be IMO to “outscore” the Lakers in their game… After losing @BOS, TOR bounced back and defeated MIN at home in the last game. Despite scoring “only” 94 points, note that TOR had a pretty efficient offensive game w/ 114 Off. Rtg! The “problem” was that the game had a ridiculous slow pace – it was the second slowest paced game of the season for TOR b/c offensively, TOR was red hot from the outside w/ 11-24 3pts and had a nice mark of 26 assists – a good sign for today’s game… TOR’s Pick n roll game shouldn’t have any problems to score against LAL that is playing K. Marshall @ PG & frontcourt due of Pau Gasol & R. Kelly! However, since K. Marshall is running the show in LA, the Lakers are showing some nice offensive flow – a first-pass PG playing for M. D’Antoni’s system is really a primary “need” for the team, and LAL has scored 118, 114 and 107 points! Because they play w/ such small ball lineups, I expect them to cause some problems to TOR defense that usually plays w/ 2 “bigs” in Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas! My Fair line for this contest is 206/208 points and therefore, I’m playing the Over in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Over 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/25: Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers

Miami  at LA Lakers

NBA - 805 Miami Heat @ 806 Los Angeles Lakers Play #2 My fair line for this contest is 203/204 points so IMO we are getting some decent value w/ the Under and that’s why I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. I expect the Lakers offense to struggle (once again) in this matchup. Their offense is predicated on Pick n Rolls in multiple ways. In the last 3 games, their volume% of P&R ball handler plays was more than 20% in average – pretty high number for any team in the league! The problem is that I have bad news for them, because the Heat is the BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM in the league defending P&R BH plays allowing just 0.57 PPP! MIA’s great ball pressure defense is a tough matchup for a shorthanded Lakers team that tends to commit TO’s against aggressive defensive teams. I know that Jordan Farmar is back today and he will give some decent play @PG position, but still he won’t perform any miracle for his team. Eventually, Pau Gasol has a good spot to perform well tonight down low against MIA, but IMO he isn’t physically capable to dominate the entire game and so, the Heat will focus in holding LAL’s perimeter offense. However, I don’t think the Heat is in a good spot to perform at their best offensively. They had to make a huge travel for this contest w/ just one day off and to make things even worse; they had to battle hard against ATL in the last game, a game that went to OT! The Lakers have been completely outrebounded in the last few games but they will have some break today as MIA really don’t crash the boards offensively. They are also protecting the rim pretty well as of late by allowing just 51.5% FG at the rim L4 games, defending the perimeter has been indeed a huge problem for them, but again, I think that the Heat will struggle a bit in shooting the ball from long range. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Under 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/17: Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies

LA Lakers  at Memphis

NBA - 505 Los Angeles Lakers @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies Play #4 I really didn’t think the Lakers would have been competitive last night against the Hawks and that’s why I took ATL-6 in the game. ATL spread offense w/ good shooters and their skilled big men were too much for a shorthanded Lakers team on the backcourt. The good news for today is that they will face a Grizzlies team that are far from being a good shooting team and will play without their best backcourt player Mike Conley. The Lakers interior defense isn’t anything special but tonight’s game plan will be an easy one: pack the paint! The Grizzlies have been struggling offensively and without both Gasol & Conley, their floor spacing will be ugly to watch. On the other side, the Lakers offense is now struggling to hit their outside shots. Since Kobe returned = 33-113 3pts%, just 29%! They are playing with Bryan @ Point Guard and obviously he struggling badly to play at this position. MEM perimeter defense has been terrible as of late but w/ the Lakers struggling they will have a good spot for tonight and I expect this contest to be a ugly game to watch w/ low scoring outcome. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 10/29: Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 505 Los Angeles Clippers @ 506 Los Angeles Lakers

Play #3

This game will be a pure run and gun contest that will put the two LA teams head to head. Right now both teams look to be more "ready" on their offensive processes than on defense. I watched several games of the Clippers on the preseason and there are no doubts that they will be one of the best offensive teams in the regular season. Their offensive flow is already way superior with Doc Rivers than it was with Vinny Del Negro. They are now quicker in executing on offense, while they are moving a lot more off the ball. On the break, they keep being lethal as usual by averaging 22 fast break points per game on their last four games of the preseason.

Therefore, I believe that the Clippers won't have problems in scoring against the Lakers, who will be in my opinion one of the worst defensive teams in the league, especially while playing on a run and gun style. According to my preseason rankings stats, the Lakers were one of the fastest paced teams in the league and for this opening day game, coach Mike D'Antoni will use a small ball lineup with Pau Gasol, Shawne Williams, Nick Young, Steve Blake and Steve Nash. This lineup will be an easy opponent for the Clippers' offense and everything will start on the matchup between Chris Paul and Steve Nash.

However, the Lakers might surprise the Clippers on offense, as the Clippers' frontcourt defense hasn't been looking good. Pau Gasol looked pretty sharp physically on the preseason and I believe he will have a good performance in here. The Lakers will spread the floor with a lot of guards on the court and this will be problematic for the Clippers who will have to fit Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan on defending such a small lineup. Doc Rivers will eventually have to put Griffin at the Center position and set his team into a small lineup as well, but until then the Lakers will offer a lot of problems to the Clippers' defense.

I expect this game to have more than 200 points scored on a fast paced game, where both offenses will outstage both defenses. So, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Los Angeles Lakers NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	94.4	5
Offense	107.8	9
Defense	106.6	20
Rebound	50.6	11

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	51.2	9	eFG%	49.6	16
TO%	13.9	17	TO%	11.9	29
Reb%	27.0	13	Reb%	25.7	10
FT%	23.9	2	FT%	16.3	1

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	8-8	109.9	102.9
December	7-7	112.9	112.0
January	5-11	107.7	108.9
February	9-4	110.2	108.9
March	9-6	109.9	108.9
April	7-1	110.7	106.6

Not even the reigning champions Miami Heat had so much attention during last season than the LA Lakers and this says a lot about the season the LA team had.

With players like Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard in the same team, the expectations would have to be “Title or Bust”, but unfortunately for the Lakers, we were in 2013 and not in 2009…

Mike Brown would never have an easy task with this roster and with a winless 0-8 preseason, the organization lost trust in Brown and everything went down once and for all when the Lakers started the season with a 1-4 record and Brown got fired. Then, the Lakers managed the feat of not hiring Phil Jackson to pick Mike D’Antoni instead, as he would supposedly “fit better” with the style of the roster.

The run and gun style that characterizes D’Antoni’s teams based on pick and roll sets would never fit the Lakers’ roster, who had an aged core of players, with a slow footed frontcourt and with little outside shooting skills. D’Antoni didn’t know what to do with Pau Gasol and he even put Gasol close to the perimeter like he was a 3pts shooter specialist or even benching him down the stretch.

The team’s lack of speed was quite evident as well. The Lakers had a lot of trouble in stopping their opponents from scoring in transition and they ended up being the second worst team in the league in fast break points allowed per game with 15.9 ppg! When they faced the Miami Heat at home, they got crushed on transitions with the Heat scoring 21 fast break points and 68 points in the paint.

Eventually, the Lakers managed to get a 20-26 record by the end of January and people started to doubt that they would even get to the playoffs, but they ended the regular season with a 25-11 run and grabbed the #7 seed in the Western Conference.

As much as we can question D’Antoni’s work, the truth is that the Lakers lacked the depth to rest the veteran players, while dealing with several injuries on their top players: Steve Nash missed 32 regular season games, Pau Gasol missed 33 games, Metta World Peace missed 7 games and Dwight Howard missed 6 games while dealing with nagging injuries throughout the whole season. Finally, Kobe Bryant got injured against Golden State with three games to go in the regular season. These were too many injuries for any coach to handle with this roster! 

Of course the Lakers had no chances on the playoffs without Kobe Bryant. San Antonio was starting their run into the finals and it was an easy task to beat a Lakers team that started the following lineup in the final game of the series: Dwight Howard – Pau Gasol – Earl Clark – Andrew Goudelock – Darius Morris!

Offseason Report:

The Lakers made a final unconvincing attempt to keep Dwight Howard in LA, but he decided to go to Houston.

With the huge contract that Kobe Bryant has, it’s almost impossible for GM Mitch Kupchak to have enough flexibility to improve his team. Metta World Peace was amnestied in order to save some money, with Kupchak being forced to make some minor deal in different areas of the roster.

After playing overseas over the last few seasons, Jordan Farmar is now back with the Lakers, where he played between 2006 and 2010. With World Peace gone, the Lakers needed to improve the SF position and they signed Nick Young and Wes Johnson, while they signed veteran Chris Kaman to replace Dwight Howard.

NBA Premium Play 04/26: San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 741 San Antonio Spurs @ 742 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: 182 points

After the Game 1 of this series had a 92.4 pace factor, I correctly mentioned that the pace of Game 2 would be much lower due to the Lakers's influence and that happened, as the pace of Game 2 was 84.9! Things pace-wise won't change for Game 3, as the Lakers's issue on this series is on offense, as it is too predictable. Gregg Popovich will pack the paint and of course give more space to the offensively challenged Lakers's backcourt formed tonight by Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock and Chris Duhon! Not only these three players are poor shooters, as they will also struggle in putting the ball into the right spots down low to feed Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. The Lakers shot a respectable 45.1% FG in Game 2, with just 18 assists on 37 FG made, in a symptom of poor ball movement that will only get worse tonight without Steve Nash and Steve Blake available. 

On the other hand, I expect the Lakers to be able to do a better job tonight than they did in Game 2, where they struggled. It was supposed that with Dwight Howard, the Lakers's defense would dominate in the paint like they did in Game 1 where the Spurs shot 11-22 FG at the rim, but this time, San Antonio shot 17-24 (71%) FG at the rim, while they also shot 8-16 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-14 treys! I expect the Lakers to do a better job on their inside defense tonight and so, the Spurs's offensive efficiency will depend from their outside shooting skills that has been streaky for a while now. With the Lakers inserting a slow pace on tonight's game, they will struggle on offense, bu they will have a decent inside defense via Dwight Howard, so I believe tonight's game will be a really low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.  

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 741/742 Under 186 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/24: Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 731 Los Angeles Lakers @ 732 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 185 points | San Antonio by 5 points

I really liked how the Lakers defended in Game 1. Dwight Howard is now close to his best level and showing why he is a three-time defensive player of the year. He got outplayed here and there by Tim Duncan, who is playing amazingly, but in general Howard is dominating on paint defense once again by altering several shots, including on Tony Parker's penetrations. San Antonio shot just 11-22 FG at the rim in Game 1! On the frontcourt duel, Pau Gasol is excellent as point forward by dishing some excellent assists. The frontcourt combo of Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard has only Tim Duncan as a real threat, as Tiago Splitter is still lacking experience to play at the level of the other three frontcourt players. Splitter shot 0-4 FG in 29 minutes and he struggled in both ends of the floor. The problem is that the Spurs have no frontcourt depth and they were a bit fortunate that Matt Bonner played well with some lucky key boards, but that won't happen twice in a row. Manu Ginobili had a great game, but if it wasn't that, the Spurs would have been screwed, as they shot 37.6% FG as a team in Game 1!

I expect the Spurs to shoot a bit better today, as they missed some good looks, but they also had an unexpected rebound edge and a nice turnover differential (9TO for the Spurs, 18TO for the Lakers). I don't expect the Spurs to have such edges on these two areas today. The Lakers will continue having an edge on the frontcourt with Gasol and Howard, especially with Howard being more dominant than he was in Game 1. This will be tough for Duncan, who will have to spend a lot of energy on defense that he will be then missing on offense. Steve Nash was lacking some rhythm in Game 1 after missing several games and thanks to that, he missed some wide open looks. Now on Game 2, with a bit more rhythm, he won't shoot 6-15 FG as he did in 

Game 1, as he will certainly continuing getting some nice looks tonight, as the Spurs will be more focused on defending the Lakers's frontcourt. 

It's also important to mention that San Antonio's defense was excellent in Game 1 and even though they are allowing some space to the Lakers's perimeter shooters, the LA team doesn't have a lot of shooters to pound them from the outside anyways. I believe Gregg Popovich knows he will be winning this series through defense and therefore, I expect another low scoring game in here, with the Lakers led by Dwight Howard turning this game into a very competitive one. So, I'll be taking both the Lakers and the Under tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731/732 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 731 Los Angeles Lakers (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/21: Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 711 Los Angeles Lakers @ 712 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 194 points | San Antonio by 12 points

So, suddenly the Lakers will dominate the Spurs and perhaps even make a deep run in the Playoffs, even though they struggled during the whole season and they are now without their best player Kobe Bryant. I see a lot of "specialists" picking the Spurs in 7 games and even the almighty Skip Bayless picked the Lakers to advance in 6 games! It looks like it is out of question for the Spurs to comfortably beat the Lakers on this series according to them, but not so fast my friend!

There are several factors that benefit the Spurs on this series. They have a much better coach, a better defensive scheme, a better overall offense, more depth on the bench, etc. But the key factor in here will be the matchup between the Spurs's guards and the Lakers's guards. If Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are at a "decent" level, then the Spurs will crush the Lakers because this has been what teams with good backcourts have been doing to the Lakers all season long. 

The last game between these two teams was played very recently, with the Lakers defeated the Spurs last Sunday at home by 91-86. San Antonio played without Manu Ginobili, while Tony Parker had his worst performance of the season with 1-10 FG and 4 turnovers on a physical struggling night for him. Then, San Antonio ended the regular season with a home game against Minnesota, where coach Popovich didn't seem interested to show how the Spurs will be looking for the playoffs. However, San Antonio used a lineup to close the first half that is worth mentioning. With 6:13 left in the second quarter, down 38-42, Popovich subbed in MGinobili, Bonner and Duncan to join Parker and Leonard on the floor. This group played the remainder of the period. The last time Parker, Duncan, Ginobili and Leonard had taken the floor together was 11 games ago, in a win against the Nuggets. In those six minutes, the Spurs outscored the Wolves by 23-14. While San Antonio scored 37 points in the second quarter, it doesn't give justice to how this lineup player on the last six minutes of the quarter, as they were on pace to score 46 points in that quarter alone! 

This is obviously a very good sign for San Antonio. After watching the Spurs against the Wolves, I also watched the game between the Lakers and the Rockets and there are no words to describe how bad the Lakers's guards are without Kobe Bryant and a healthy Steve Nash. Mike D'Antoni was forced to close the first quarter with Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock! How did the Lakers play during those last three minutes of the first quarter? Well, they went scoreless! It seems that Steve Nash will play today, but I doubt that he will be physically at 100%, so this should be an easy matchup for Tony Parker. Obviously that Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard will be key factors for the Lakers on this series, but since Gregg Popovich put Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan together on the frontcourt, the Spurs become an elite interior defensive team: top 3 on the league on both rim defense and defensive rebounding!

I expect the Spurs to have a nice offensive game in here, while pushing up the pace to catch the slow footed Lakers off guard, while the Lakers's frontcourt also having an acceptable performance in here, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here. I also believe San Antonio will surprise the "specialists" today and get a statement win on the Game 1 of this series. Therefore, I'll be taking the Spurs in here as well. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 San Antonio Spurs (-8,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Playoff Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Lakers

vs 

This season has been a tremendous roller-coaster for San Antonio, who was the team to beat in the West for most of the season, but now there are a lot of doubts about their ability to beat the #7 seed on the first round of the playoffs. In fact, there's a lot of people calling this series a potential 7-games series, with the Lakers having even a nice chance for the upset! Tony Parker got injured and when he returned, he was never the same. Manu Ginobili has been erratic all season with injuries and some bad play. Boris Diaw is injured, while Stephen Jackson was waived on the last week of the regular season. All of this isn't normal for a team like the Spurs, who is known for being the best organized franchise in the league. 

On the other end, if the Spurs had a roller-coaster season, what can we say about the Lakers's season? They got to the playoffs without Kobe Bryant. They made a late push and won their last two games against the Spurs and the Rockets, two playoff teams. This new look Lakers is more post-oriented naturally without Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. It will be interesting to check what kind of pace will the Lakers try to set on this series. Their last game of the regular season against the Rockets (#1 in pace factor) was a typical half court game, in which the Lakers didn't score a single fast break point. This should tell us something about how the Lakers will try to play on the postseason.

San Antonio's offense has declined since Tony Parker got injured by averaging an ugly 100.9 offensive rating over their last 10 games, below the league average! Both Parker and Ginobili will be the key on this series, as with them at 90%, the Lakers won't stand a chance, as we have seen all season long that the Lakers are too slow footed to battle against dynamic guards, especially on transitions. Dwight Howard is playing better and better as the season goes on with a bigger defensive range, while he won't have an easy matchup on offense against Tim Duncan. Foul trouble might be a problem for both teams. It will also be important to check Howard's FT% throughout the series, as he will certainly suffer a hack-a-Howard on this series.

With two good frontcourt units in action, it will be the guards play, who will decide the fate of this series and until facts prove me otherwise, I believe San Antonio has too much quality and depth for the Kobeless Lakers and this will be difference in here.

Prediction: San Antonio in 5/6 games

NBA Premium Play 04/02: Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 765 Dallas Mavericks @ 766 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 1 point

I believe Dallas will be super competitive tonight and the key reason for that is Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging 25.6 points, 59% FG, 47% 3pts, 90% FT and 7 rebounds on Dallas's last five games! The most incredible fact is that the Mavericks haven't been facing scrub teams like the Lakers lately! Dallas faced Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Boston, Utah, LA Clippers, Indiana and Chicago on their last eight games. All teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today! Offensively, Dallas will have a clear edge in transition tonight, even though I don't think Dallas will try to take a lot of advantage from that tonight, as I expect the Mavericks to try to set a halfcourt pace at times to expose Pau Gasol's slowness on the matchup that he will have against Dirk Nowitzki. 

So, the question in here will be to know what the Lakers's offense will do against the Mavericks's defense. On the last game between these two teams, the Lakers won at Dallas with a super sharp outside game: 13-25 3pts! The Lakers used Kobe Bryant as their main PG for almost the whole game, with Steve Nash playing off the ball. This is why Nash had 4 assists in that game, while Kobe had 7. The goal was to take advantage of Dallas's poor positional defense at the PG position and that worked very well, with Kobe Bryant being completely unstoppable in the 4th quarter, while Steve Nash also had a good game with 7-12 FG and 4-5 3pts for a 20 points performance!

But things will be completely different tonight. Kobe Bryant is banged up, while Steve Nash and Metta World Peace are out due to injury. As Steve Blake isn't half the shooter that Steve Nash is, Dallas will be able to focus on Kobe Bryant, besides the fact that the Mavericks won't be surprised by the Lakers tonight like they did in the previous game. Of course the Lakers will have the edge down low with Dwight Howard, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mavericks use a zone defense to mess around with the Lakers's offense. I expect this game to be a fast paced game, but where the Mavericks's depth edge might make the difference down the stretch. I expect this game to be a pure ball game and right now I wouldn't want to bet against a team that has a red hot Dirk Nowitzki! Therefore, I'll be taking the Mavericks plus the points tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 765 Dallas Mavericks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings

NBA - 517 Los Angeles Lakers @ 518 Sacramento Kings

Projected Line: Sacramento by 1 point

The Lakers are favored once again on the road against a lowly team who happens to be 19-16 at home this season. By the way, the last two games Sacramento was a home dog, they crushed Chicago by 121-79 and the LA Clippers by 116-101! The Lakers are in a poor spot for tonight. They had two tough games back to back at Minnesota and Milwaukee, while they had just 1 day off to regroup from Milwaukee's loss and come play tonight at Sacramento. As if that wasn't enough, they are completely banged up. Metta World Peace is out, Steve Nash is questionable and Kobe Bryant is probable, but he will likely force things too much tonight on offense once again.

But the main problem for the Lakers tonight is that the Kings's offense are a terrible matchup for the Lakers's slow footed defense. Sacramento's guards are very fast and they like to attack off the dribble. As you've been watching the Lakers this season, you know how badly they struggle against this kind of quick guards. Just look at their last game, where Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings had a combined of 38 points and 16 assists against them! Sure that Sacramento's defense is a poor unit and so, Dwight Howard could have a big game. However, this will be a wild fast paced game and I don't think the Lakers will have the proper offensive discipline to establish their game through Howard. When Jodie Meeks attempts 12 shots during the game, while Dwight Howard attempt just 8 shots, you know that something is wrong with the Lakers's offense and I don't really expect that to change tonight.

Sacramento's speed and their depth edge will worn the Lakers out tonight. The Lakers keep being overrated and so, I keep fading them. Sacramento has been playing well for quite some time now and they seem to be ultra focused when they face top teams. This is why they've defeated the Clippers, they've hung around at Denver and they also defeated Golden State on the road last Wednesday night! They will treat this contest like it was a playoff game for them and therefore, I'll be taking Sacramento in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 518 Sacramento Kings (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/28: Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks

LA Lakers  at Milwaukee

NBA - 801 Los Angeles Lakers @ 802 Milwaukee Bucks Projected Line: 212 points Milwaukee is coming from a terrible performance last night in Philadelphia, where things got so bad early in the game that Coach Jim Boylan decided to bench Brandon Jennings, who played just 17 minutes. The truth is that during the span Jennings was on the court, the Bucks got outscored by 25 points! I believe Jennings's benching was a wake up call for the Bucks's PG and for the whole team and so, I expect Milwaukee to come fired up to play tonight. They know that the Lakers are also on a back to back spot and they tend to struggle on this kind of games, so I expect Milwaukee to try to set up the fastest pace possible in tonight's game, in order to worn out the veteran Lakers in here. The Bucks will also attempt to set up a fast tempo tonight in order to avoid a repeat of what Dwight Howard did to them early on the season in the game played these two teams in LA, where Howard dominated the Bucks with 14-18 FG, 31 points and 16 rebounds! I expect the Lakers to struggle on defense today. First of all, they are on a tough spot because they are coming from a game at Minnesota last night that had a ridiculous fast pace (almost 104!) and where Coach Mike D'Antoni only used 8 players! This is especially concerning as the Lakers is a veteran team and so, more prone to struggle physically on tough spots. The Lakers's spot up defense keeps regressing and the Bucks shouldn't have problems in getting open looks tonight to torch the Lakers with treys. On the other hand, Monta Ellis should also take advantage of the slow footed Lakers's backcourt to easily execute his dribble penetrations into the basket, while Ersan Ilyasova should also have an excellent matchup against the slow Pau Gasol. The Bucks have a good ball movement on offense and therefore, they should be able to torch the Lakers's defense with their exterior shooting and with dribble penetrations as well. On the other side, the Lakers should also have a great offensive game tonight. They won't be able to stop Milwaukee's offense tonight, so they will need to play good offense to stay competitive tonight. Kobe Bryant will have an excellent matchup on offense, as Milwaukee's perimeter defense is horrible and therefore, Kobe should have no problems in torching the Bucks tonight. The same should happen with Dwight Howard, who will have a great matchup, as Larry Sanders may be a great defender, but he lacks the size and power to counter Howard's offensive moves, as seen in the game played these two teams in LA. Therefore, I expect this game to be played at a very fast pace, with both teams playing much better offense than defense tonight. The result of that will be a super high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/27: Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 763 Los Angeles Lakers @ 764 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 1 point

The Lakers will be playing tonight without Metta World Peace, so they will use an undersized starting backcourt formed by Kobe Bryant, Jodie Meeks and Steve Nash. This will be a good matchup for Minnesota, who also uses a 3-guards rotation on their starting lineup. With the Lakers's defense being lazy and having no foot speed, Minnesota's guards will be able to attack off the dribble, while having good edges on pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions on tonight's game. Minnesota will also have another clear edge on turnovers, as the Lakers are very prone to commit them and the Wolves have been very good on pressuring the opposing ball handler and then easily score on fast breaks. 

Even though the Lakers easily defeated the Wolves in the first two games of the season, the truth is that I don't expect the same to happen tonight. The first contest was weird, as Minnesota had better FG% number than the Lakers but got completely outrebounded by the LA team. On the second contest, Andrei Kirilenko didn't play and Nikola Pekovic got injured and played just 9 minutes, so the Timberwolves couldn't be competitive. This time, I expect the Wolves to take advantage of the Lakers's poor backcourt defense to torch them with their small ball, turning this game into a very competitive one. Therefore, I'll be taking Minnesota tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 764 Minnesota Timberwolves (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 03/22: Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 821 Washington Wizards @ 822 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 12 points

Both Nene Hilario and Emeka Okafor are banged up and these are terrible news for Washington. This is especially true tonight, as they will have a rested Dwight Howard, who will completely overpower the Wizards's frontcourt tonight. After being an elite defensive team throughout most of the season, the lowly Wizards are now starting to struggle in areas where they hadn't struggled until recently. Their pick and roll defense is a real example of that. They were a top defensive team on this area during the first half of the season, but they are already #19 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.80 PPP allowed for the season and with 1.16 PPP allowed on their last five games! In fact, the whole struggle began exactly during the All Star break, as they are allowing 0.97 PPP to their opponents on this kind of plays since the break! As they will be facing the Lakers tonight, a team that uses a lot of pick and rolls, I expect Washington's defense to struggle a lot tonight, allowing the Lakers to have a good offensive game tonight.

On the other side, Washington is coming from a road win in Phoenix, but where their offense was just terrible. They attempt a very low number of shots near the basket and so, they are super dependent from their 3pts shooting. If this was working well for them on their span of home games, with Martell Webster being red hot, the same isn't happening on the road, where they shot 6-15 3pts twice on their last two games. Considering the fact that Dwight Howard will prevent the Wizards from scoring close to the basket tonight, Washington's offense will depend from their perimeter shooting and this isn't going to work well for them tonight. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Lakers tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 822 Los Angeles Lakers (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/17: Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 885 Sacramento Kings @ 886 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 6 points

This is a really bad spot for the Lakers. They had a 3-games road trip on the East at Orlando, Atlanta and Indiana, with their last game against the Pacers being a physically brutal contest. Kobe Bryant was super banged up and he played just for a few minutes, while Dwight Howard was involved in a lot of physical disputes in both ends of the floor. So, no wonder that Howard is struggling physically right now, after such physical battle with the Pacers's powerful frontcourt:

"It's sore since [Friday]," said Dwight. "It hasn't stopped bothering me." He intends to play through the injury, but this is a good reminder that he's always one awkward rebound away from aggravating his existing labrum injury.

The Lakers had just 1 day off to return home from Indiana and prepare for tonight's game. This spot would be problematic for any team, but it's especially tough for a banged up veteran team like the Lakers. Sacramento is a lowly team, they are horrible on defense, but their offense has been at an elite level since the All Star game by averaging an offensive rating of 114.3! In fact, they showed their offensive talent on their last game, where they scored 121 points against the Bulls elite defense! The keys for this offensive improvement are related with their red hot outside shooting (43.6% 3pts since the All Star break) and a demolishing transition game! The Kings have super quick guards who are very aggressive in attacking the basket early on the shotclock. This will be very problematic for the Lakers's defense, who struggles a lot in running back to defense. It's true that the LA team has allowed just 4, 4, 11 and 11 fast break points on their last four games, but that was simply due to the circumstances of those games. Chicago, Orlando and Indiana are teams that don't have on their mindset scoring fast break points (Chicago #24 with 10.2 ppg; Orlando #25 with 9.8 ppg; Indiana #21 with 11.5 ppg), while Atlanta is a potent team on transitions, but they were missing Josh Smith and Jeff Teague on their game against the Lakers and so, they couldn't be effective on transitions. Things will be completely different with Sacramento, who is averaging almost 20 fast break points per game since the All Star break!

The Lakers without Kobe Bryant will struggle to beat the very quick Kings, let alone cover a blowout line. Therefore, I'll be taking Sacramento tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 885 Sacramento Kings (+9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/13: Los Angeles Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 607 Los Angeles Lakers @ 608 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 6 points

NOTE: Atlanta will start tonight with Johan Petro, Al Horford, Anthony Tolliver, Dahntay Jones and Devin Harris. The Hawks without the speed of Jeff Teague and Josh Smith will have no transition edge and without that, they won't be competitive against the in-form Lakers, who are now playing much better than in the start of the season. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for LA tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 607 Los Angeles Lakers (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/12: Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic

NBA - 555 Los Angeles Lakers @ 556 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: 210 points

This game is getting some media hype, as it will be the first time that Dwight Howard will play at Orlando after getting traded to the Lakers. I expect this game to be a shootout. Orlando's defense has been terrible lately and the Lakers's offense have several edges that they will explore tonight. With Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris on the frontcourt, the Magic are allowing their opponents to shoot over 70% FG at the rim, so we can expect a fired up Howard to have an impressive offensive showing tonight. Also the Magic's perimeter defense has been awful, as they are now #27 on the league on pick and roll ball handler defense by allowing 0.85 PPP! That's good news for the Lakers's offense, who is very efficient on this kind of plays, just like any team coached by Mike D'Antoni! They are #4 on the league with 0.84 PPP, with 0.92 PPP on their last 10 games!

On the other side, I also expect Orlando to have good offensive numbers as well. Jameer Nelson and Arron Afflalo are now healthy once again and their speed can be a big factor tonight against the slow footed backcourt defense of the Lakers. We can expect Coach Jacques Vaughn to implement an uptempo game plan for Orlando to avoid Howard's domination down low. One important factor that will work for us in tonight's game is the fact that this game will have a ton of free throws! If you remember, the Magic won at LA by 113-103 in early December and one of the key factors for their win was their hack-a-Howard strategy that Vaughn implement. This caused Howard to attempt 21 Free Throws! I'm sure that Vaughn will do the same tonight and so, the final quarter of tonight's game will have a lot more possessions that usual, something that will give more opportunities for both teams to score. We have all the right ingredients for a very high scoring game in here, so I'll be taking the Over tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 555/556 Over 206,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline