NBA - 505 Dallas Mavericks @ 506 Utah Jazz
Projected line: 180 points
Yes,
the spot is horrible for Dallas, as they will be playing a back to back
game, after losing on the road against the Clippers with a buzzer beat
shot by Billups. So, common sense would make us fade the Mavs on this
tough spot and take the red hot Jazz at home. However, Dallas are known
for being road warriors and it looks like the tougher the spot is, the
better they play (excluding their horrible first week!). The truth is
that the Mavs are 3-1 ATS as road dogs this season, in close games at
Oklahoma City, Boston and in LA against the Lakers! The only stinker was
their no show at San Antonio. Also in this game, what it matters the
most are the matchups and in my opinion, Dallas' defense has exactly the
right tools to stop the Jazz offense.
Utah has been running on a pretty hot run, mainly thanks to their
frontcourt. If Big Al and Millsap can dominate down low, Utah becomes a
really dangerous team. But if they can't, then the Jazz become an
average-at-best team, as their perimeter is mediocre. So, if we analyse
the matchup between Dallas defense and Utah's frontline offense, we see
that Dallas is 10# in defending the rim by allowing 61.8% FG and #4 in
defending shots from 3-9 feet by allowing 34% FG! They are also #2 on
points allowed in the paint with just 33.7 ppg allowed and #2 in
defensive rebounding by allowing just 22.41% of the available rebounds.
These defensive ranks are surely impressive and help us understanding
why the Mavs defense has been so impressive in their last games. Over
their last 5 games, Utah has been trying 32.5% of their shots at the rim
with an unbelievable 70% FG! But in the same stretch, Dallas is
allowing just 54% at the rim! With Utah's offense limited in the rim
tonight, I believe the Jazz will struggle on offense because they aren't
good on shooting from the outside by averaging just 30% FG from 10-15
feet, 40% FG from 16-23 feet and 28% 3pts.
On the other side, Dallas is really strong down the stretch and it's
curious to see that they are coming from two games where they basically
lost on the last shot of the game. I believe Dallas will slow down the
pace of the game and they will play their game, run their sets and then,
be clutch down the stretch. Utah is really hot right now, but Dallas is
the better team and I believe they will bounce back from the two losses
at LA with a big win tonight. I'm taking the Mavs on the moneyline
tonight. Considering the struggles on offense that Utah will have with
the super in-form defense of the Mavs plus the fact that Dallas will try
to slow down the pace, I came up with a projection of 180 points for
this contest, low enough for me to take the under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Dallas Mavericks ML @ +125 / 2.25 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment