NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Milwaukee Bucks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Milwaukee  at Minnesota

NBA - 557 Milwaukee Bucks @ 558 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #3 Yesterday, the Bucks defeated the Magic in a game where MIL’s head coach Larry Drew really wanted to win the game as he played MIL’s best player B. Knight for 44 minutes! Today’s contest will be MIL’s 4th game in 5 nights and it will be on the road so we are dealing with a team primed for a letdown. This 15-pts spread line is a fair line IMO due to MIL’s bad spot & MIN’s urgency in bouncing back after losing vs. TOR. However, I feel that we are getting some value w/ Under in this contest… MIL is an awful defensive team but their biggest weakness is to defend 3pts… Since the All Star break, they are allowing 40.7% while for the season, they are indeed the worst 3pts defensive team allowing 38.6%! The good news is that MIN isn’t a good 3pts shooting team – ranked #26 and in L10 games, they are shooting just 33.2% - ranked #25 in the league. MIN is instead a team that wants to pound down low and the Bucks are a decent defensive team protecting the rim… On the other end, w/ B. Knight coming from a huge effort last night, I don’t think that he will be efficient tonight. MIN L2 games vs. NYK & vs. TOR happened mostly because they couldn’t defend 3pts as NYK = 11-27 3pts & TOR = 14-24 but MIL’s is far from being a good outside shooting team!  Actually, in L3 games, MIL has shot 5-20, 4-16 & 8-27 from 3pts! My fair line for this contest is 210/212 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 557/558 Under 216 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 02/20: Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Denver  at Milwaukee

NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Milwaukee Bucks Play #3 Yes, MIL is the worst team in the league but they are playing better as of late as their head coach Larry Drew has figured out some rotations, like playing rookie PG Wolters alongside w/ B. Knight; giving more minutes to J. Henson or playing K. Middleton @SF and not on the backcourt. The key factor for this contest is clearly related with the Denver Nuggets… Ty Lawson remains injured and will miss tonight’s game… not only he is BY FAR the Nuggets best player but also, DEN simply don’t have any real backups for him. I went against them in their last game vs. PHX saying the following: “In the L2 games prior to the All Star Break, DEN had awful Off. RTG of 87.3 & 93.0 while having just 17 and 19 assists. When their “Point Guard” right now is R. Foye (who is averaging just 3.0 assists per game this season), then it’s easy to understand why DEN is/will struggle this much without Lawson.” Well, DEN finished the game shooting 38.4% FG, shooting just 5-28 behind the line and had only 17 assists! Randy Foye isn’t a Point Guard and for this contest I really expect B. Knight to excel against the Nuggets’ poor backcourt defense. In the first h2h game between these two teams, DEN won the game by 10 points w/ 1) B. Knight having a terrible game w/ 4-17 FG and 2) Ty Lawson despite shooting just 6-14 FG, he had 7 rebounds and… 13 of the 22 team assists! DEN is lacking some confidence and most importantly, they aren’t play well and this current line DEN-5 is just too much for them as my fair line is DEN-1. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Milwaukee Bucks (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 01/31: Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic

Milwaukee  at Orlando

NBA - 801 Milwaukee Bucks @ 802 Orlando Magic Play #1 In this contest we’ll have IMO a classic game between two lowly teams without any kind of defensive aggression. ORL has been struggling offensively lately because without Vucevic, they are a pure guard-oriented team that doesn’t have the proper offensive talent to generate easy points. The good news is that Vucevic returned in the last and in just 21 minutes he was effective w/ 6-12 FG 4-4 FT, 16 pts and 10 reb. Still, ORL struggled to score vs. TOR because their guards were just terrible: Nelson 5-15 FG, Afflalo 4-11 FG and Oladipo 3-14 FG! Well, it was a bad spot for them (b2b game) and TOR defense is quite good defending P&R plays. For tonight, ORL had one day off to rest, Vucevic will play without restrictions and… ORL will face a terrible defensive team in the Bucks = offensive bounce back performance! The key question for this contest is related w/ MIL offense… Their head coach has confirmed that he will play some small ball tonight w/ 2 pure guards in Knight & Wolters and so I expect MIL to be more an up tempo team. B. Knight has been one of the few decent offensive players for the team and I expect him to have the edge vs. slow footed J. Nelson in his matchup. My fair line for this contest is 198 points and therefore, we have the proper edge to play w/ OVER as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Over 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/24: Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Milwaukee  at Cleveland

NBA - 807 Milwaukee Bucks @ 808 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #1 CLE defense has been just awful lately especially w/ their guards – K. Irving really can’t guard anyone as when D.J Augustin is able to hit 8-14 FG, 5-8 3 pts, 6-6 FT while having 7-2 A/TO vs. CLE= that’s a pretty good sign of mediocrity. MIL’s offense obviously is far from being a decent unit, but they have in B. Knight a pretty aggressive PG that will explore this CLE bad positional defense. MIL is coming from a rare win in their last game vs. DET. Coach Larry Drew decided to start w/ Ilyasova + Henson + Udoh on the frontcourt (Ilyasova being the “Small Forward” of the team) and while MIL was able to score well near the basket w/ 46 points in the paint, their perimeter defense was really terrible w/ bad defensive positioning. For some reason, B. Jennings ended the game w/ 11-23 FG & 30 points and Stuckey w/ 8-16 FG & 23 points. NOTE: L. Drew confirmed that he will use the same starting lineup for tonight These are extremely good news for this CLE offense that depends on their backcourt to be efficient on the offensive end and so, we can expect K. Irving, D. Waiters, J. Jack & L. Deng to enjoy some nice offensive edge on their matchups. My fair line for this contest is 198 points and therefore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 01/13: Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors

Milwaukee  at Toronto

NBA - 701 Milwaukee Bucks @ 702 Toronto Raptors Play #1 TOR defense has been excellent by holding their opponents to just 86.7 points per game in L7 games but their offense has also improved dramatically as well. If we remove their game @IND because the Pacers’ defense is simply in another level, TOR has averaged 101.4 points per game in L11 games & nice 110 Offensive Rtg. After facing some strong opposition, TOR will face tonight the lowly Bucks so I expect them to be more relaxed in both ends of the floor. MIL isn’t a good defensive team, such statement is quite obvious but in L10 games, their perimeter defense has been truly awful by allowing 41.3% 3pts – the worst mark in the league! The X factor for this contest is related w/ the matchup TOR defense vs. MIL offense. First of all, I expect TOR to be “a bit relaxed” on their defensive intensiveness (TOR is 8-4 OVER as home favorites this season) MIL offense obviously is struggling all season long, but in L3 games they really couldn't score near the basket – just 22.7 pts in the paint & 42.0% FG at the rim! But note that they have faced GSW, CHI & OKC –all elite defensive teams protecting the rim, so no wonder they struggled to score down low… I expect them to have better numbers in this department. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 186.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/27: Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets

Milwaukee  vs Brooklyn

NBA - 805 Milwaukee Bucks @ 806 Brooklyn Nets Play #6 Brooklyn are screwed without Brook Lopez in both ends of the floor. They can't generate easy looks down low with just 32.5 points scored in the paint on their last 7 games, while their outside shooting is just too streaky. They had two monster games regarding outside shooting against Philadelphia in both occasions, but they shot just 6-26 and 5-17 3pts on their last two games. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are struggling, the team has no transition game and so, their offense is super stagnant right now. On the other side, Milwaukee is becoming more and more competitive. In fact, three of their last four games went to overtime! They are showing better offense, with more consistent rotations, something that is allowing them to commit less turnovers per game. I believe Milwaukee will be a tough match up for Brooklyn's defense. The Bucks has been led by Brandon Knight's solid play and so, Deron Williams will have to work on defense on this match up tonight. Milwaukee has some good shooters like O.J. Mayo and Caron Butler and the return of Ersan Ilyasova will also give them some extra outside shooting, an area where Brooklyn's defense struggles. One of Milwaukee's main problems this season has been their awful defensive rebounding. Larry Sanders's return tonight will give them some help, even though he will play just 20 minutes. Another fact that will help them in here is the fact that Brooklyn is just #25 on offensive rebounding with a 23.3% offensive rebound rate, so the Bucks' poor defensive rebounding won't be explored in here. The Nets won at Milwaukee by 90-82 on the last game between these two teams, but that was due to Brook Lopez, who dominated with 11-13 FG, 10-11 FT and 32 points in 40 minutes! Without him, I expect the Nets to struggle and so, I'll be taking Milwaukee in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Milwaukee Bucks (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/23: Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Bobcats

Milwaukee  at Charlotte

NBA - 703 Milwaukee Bucks @ 704 Charlotte Bobcats Play #2 This will be the third game between these two teams this season, with the first two being huge blowout wins by the Bobcats. Charlotte has been showing their solid defense as usual, but they are struggling on offense. They had two good offensive games against Detroit and Toronto due to good individual  performances. Kemba Walker has been playing well, but the team as a whole is struggling on offense with just 18, 19 and 16 assists on their last three games.  Besides the low assist rates, they are also struggling on rebounds lately. Their offense is based on a bunch of pick and rolls with a huge volume of 26.2% and 26.5% on their last two games! On the other hand, their spot ups and transitions couldn't be less effective and this is holding them down on offense. After a big slump, Milwaukee is now being more competitive with three competitive performance against the NY Knicks, Cleveland and Philadelphia.  Their perimeter defense continues to struggle and they allowed 10, 17, 11 and 10 treys to their opponents on their last four games, for a combined of 48-116 (41%) 3pts! The good news for the Bucks is that Charlotte is a poor team on 3pts shooting and so, they won't explore that tonight. On the first two games between these two teams, Charlotte easily won both games due to being effective on pick and rolls, while Al Jefferson crushed the Bucks front court formed at the time by Zaza Pachulia and Ersan Ilyasova with 8-15 FG and 11-18 FG performance. Milwaukee's offense is also improving with Brandon Knight at the PG position. O.J. Mayo is now coming off the bench, while the team as a whole is rebounding better as well. Milwaukee has nothing to do with the team that got crushed twice by Charlotte earlier in the season and so, I'll be taking them tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Milwaukee Bucks (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 12/20: Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Milwaukee  at Cleveland

NBA - 803 Milwaukee Bucks @ 804 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #3 Milwaukee is coming from a double overtime game at home against the Knicks, something really tough for a team that is currently shorthanded. Therefore, three players needed to play over 50 minutes on this game! The Bucks are a terrible defensive rebounding team, with no absolute inside presence and so, I expect Cleveland's frontcourt to absolutely pound Milwaukee down low tonight. Then, Milwaukee's defense is also terrible on pick and roll ball handler plays and Kyrie Irving and Jarrett Jack should be ready to pound the Bucks on this area as well tonight, even though Irving is currently battling an illness. Cleveland has been super competitive as of late by battling toe to toe against elite teams like Portland. Even if Dion Waiters doesn't play tonight (he is questionable with a wrist injury), I believe the Cavaliers have enough conditions to blowout the shorthanded and tired Bucks on this spot. Therefore, I'll be taking Cleveland tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 804 Cleveland Cavaliers (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA 11/23 Free Premium Play: Charlotte Bobcats @ Milwaukee Bucks

Charlotte  at Milwaukee

NBA - 713 Charlotte Bobcats @ 714 Milwaukee Bucks Play #6 Charlotte lost at home against Phoenix last night due to their inability of shooting from long range: 3-15 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-14 3pts! The Bobcats attacked the rim with 48 points in the paint and 33 FT attempts, but that wasn't enough. Phoenix shot well from the outside, but not via their guards! It was their forwards Channing Frye, P.J. Tucker and the Morris brothers that combined 10-13 3pts! For tonight's game at Milwaukee, Charlotte will have another good matchup, as Milwaukee's guards are poor on defensive dribble drive penetrations from the opposing guards and that's Charlotte's main strength on offense. Milwaukee's defense is just #27 on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.82 PPP allowed. Milwaukee managed to be competitive at Philadelphia last night due to an excellent outside shooting game: 14-28 FG from 16-23 feet and 8 treys made! However, the Bucks didn't even try to attack the ball down low. Zaza Pachulia is struggling with 40% FG for the season and Ersan Ilyasova only wants to shoot from mid-range. This also made the Bucks struggle on rebounding. Charlotte's problem on defense has been on defending the perimeter. They collapse too much on trying to protect the rim and this is making them allow +40% FG from 16-23 feet and also a bunch of treys. Milwaukee's offense is a pure jump shooting team, so they will be a tough opponent for Charlotte's defense. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be such a low scoring game as the lines are showing, so I'm taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/22: Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers

Milwaukee  at Philadelphia

NBA - 503 Milwaukee Bucks @ 504 Philadelphia 76ers ***SPLIT THE WAGER*** Philadelphia without Thaddeus Young and with Michael Carter-Williams still banged up lack the offensive talent to compensate the terrible defense that they have. On their last game against Toronto, 40% of their offensive plays were isolations and transitions, something that shows us the state of their offense right now. Regarding their defense, any aggressive guard can have big games against them by penetrating into the basket and then the Sixers' poor team help defense allow their opponents to have big games from the outside. "When you don't have Thaddeus, do you go big ball, do you go small ball?" coach Brett Brown said. "When you play that type of judgment game, it gets harder to manage those periods." Milwaukee is finally having some players returning from injury. Both Caron Butler and Ersan Ilyasova are now back and the team is slowly getting healthy. On their last game against Portland, Luke Ridnour returned into the starting lineup, same with Caron Butler. However, I don't understand why Larry Drew refuses to start John Henson alongside Zaza Pachulia. The only positive thing coming from this decision is that the Bucks having two competent players in Henson and Ilyasova coming off the bench. Milwaukee was competent on their outside shooting against the Blazers with 7-15 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-14 3pts, but they were outrebounded, they committed more turnovers than Portland and allowed the Blazers to make 11 treys. For tonight's game, I like Milwaukee in here, given how much Philadelphia will be missing Thaddeus Young once again. Milwaukee's decent outside shooting will allow them to crush the Sixers' poor perimeter defense and Philadelphia without Young struggles a lot on offense by insisting too much on transitions, an area where Milwaukee's defense is good by allowing just 11.3 fast break points per game. Therefore, I'll be taking Milwaukee tonight. Split the wager! Pick: 1 unit on 503 Milwaukee Bucks ML @ +130 / 2.30 on Bookmaker Pick: 2 units on 503 Milwaukee Bucks (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 11/15: Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers

Milwaukee  at Indiana

NBA - 701 Milwaukee Bucks @ 702 Indiana Pacers Play #1 Milwaukee is currently dealing with a lot of injuries, so much that it's possible that they will have to start the following lineup: Zaza Pachulia, Ekpe Udoh, Kris Middleton, O.J. Mayo and Nate Wolters. So many injury problems in Milwaukee will in my opinion lead to a very good game from Indiana's offense. The Pacers have been great on offense over their last two with 110 and 113 offensive ratings, while having 24/13 and 25/13 A/TO ratios! Their perimeter has been excellent, with Paul George, Lance Stephenson and George Hill dominating the Grizzlies! The only area where Indiana's offense wasn't great was down low with 38 points in the paint on each of their last two games, while having subpar shooting numbers. However, they faced Brooklyn and Memphis, two good interior defenses, while they will face a depleted Bucks frontcourt tonight. Therefore, I believe Indiana will have a huge offensive game tonight, as Milwaukee's guards won't be able to handle Indiana's guards, something that will give a lot of space to the Pacers' frontcourt players who won't have problems in scoring a bunch of easy points down low tonight. On the other hand, Milwaukee will have to base their offense on long range shooting, especially via their two main perimeter shooters: O.J. Mayo and Gary Neal. Indiana is coming from some tough games and considering the fact that they will have a huge offensive game tonight, they won't have to make a big effort on defense, something that will allow Milwaukee to score a respectable amount of points as well. Therefore, I believe this game will be a relatively high scoring contest, especially due to Indiana's big offensive game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Milwaukee Bucks NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	94.7	3
Offense	103.6	22
Defense	105.2	12
Rebound	49.5	19

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	47.6	24	eFG%	49.2	10
TO%	12.7	3	TO%	14.4	6
Reb%	27.9	11	Reb%	28.7	28
FT%	17.4	26	FT%	20.1	15

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	7-7	102.9	105.6
December	9-6	103.1	102.1
January	8-7	107.6	107.1
February	4-8	102.7	107.4
March	7-9	108.8	112.2
April	3-7	104.7	104.9

For a franchise like the Milwaukee Bucks, going to the playoffs will always be a motive to consider any season as a positive one. This happened last season with Milwaukee grabbing the final spot on the Eastern Conference, but there wasn’t a great merit from them, as they ended the season with a 38-44 record and eventually the Bucks got swept by the Miami Heat in the first round of the postseason.

A losing streak of four games at the end of December was enough for Scott Skiles to quite the job, something that promoted Jim Boylan into the Interim Head Coach until the end of the season. The results under Boylan’s leadership weren’t great:

Scott Skiles vs. Jim Boylan
Coaches	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg	Pace
Skiles	16-16	102.9	104.9	92.4
Boylan	22-28	106.6	107.8	94.1

           

Milwaukee started to play in a faster pace and they were indeed the fastest paced team in the Eastern Conference. That allowed them to improve their offense, but on the other side, their defense struggled big time.

It’s almost impossible for a team to succeed on the NBA when their starting backcourt is responsible for more than 33 attempted shots per game, while having a low efficiency number of 41.6% and 39.9% FG! This happened with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis last season and so, the Bucks struggled into being an efficient offensive team.

If we add to this, the terrible start of the season from Ersan Ilyasova, who shot a terrible 34.9% FG in November, something that made him getting demoted into the bench, Scott Skiles struggled into turning the Bucks into a competitive team, but the truth is that the Bucks were 16-16 when Skiles left the team.

This acceptable record was achieved thanks to an underrated defense led by the team’s biggest surprise last season: Larry Sanders! His defensive presence was phenomenal throughout the whole season and his evolution was spectacular, having in account that he had averaged just 14.5 and 12.4 minutes per game on his first two seasons in the league. His minutes jumped into 27.3 minutes/game last season and he took advantage of that to improve all his numbers across the board.

The Bucks added J.J. Redick to the roster close to the trade deadline, but Boylan couldn’t find a solution to take full advantage of Redick, something tough to happen as Ellis and Jennings were taking so many shots per game.

The Bucks were a mediocre team all season long and they were never able to show that they could win a series on the playoffs. In fact, they grabbed that final playoff spot in the East mostly due to the lack of competition on their conference than due to their own merit.

Offseason Report:

The good news for Milwaukee is that they finally convinced themselves that they would never improve with such inefficient backcourt formed by Ellis and Jennings, so they decided not to resign with both players. Monta Ellis went to Dallas, while the Bucks traded Brandon Jennings for Brandon Knight. Both J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy also left the team, so the Bucks will have a completely new backcourt for the new season.

Besides Brandon Knight, the Bucks grabbed Luke Ridnour on trade with Minnesota, where they took advantage of the fact that the Wolves wanted to clear cap space and so, they offered Ridnour “for nothing” in return. O.J. Mayo agreed to a three-year, $24 million contract with the Bucks to be the team’s starting SG, while Gary Neal agreed to a two-year, $7 million deal to give more depth to the team and a much more efficient outside shooter than the ones they had last season.

For the frontcourt, the Bucks signed Caron Butler for Ish Smith and Slava Kravtsov, while Zaza Pachulia is the team’s main post player acquisition for the new season.

NBA Premium Play 04/28: Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA - 511 Miami Heat @ 512 Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Line: 199 points

The Game 3 of this series showed another clear loss for the Bucks, but they still did some interesting things. They didn't want to play a lot of halfcourt sets and scored 20 fast break points with a nice 9-13 FG in transitions. Their frontcourt played well, with the Bucks scoring a series high of 46 points in the paint. The problem of the Bucks was that their two main starts, Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, struggled on their shooting. Milwaukee managed to have their best numbers where it's easier to score (transition and down low), but they struggled on their 3pts shooting. But if we assume that they won't shoot 18-29 FT or commit 20 turnovers today, they should be able to have a quite positive offensive performance today.

On the other side, Miami did what we expect them to do. They had easy looks once again on the perimeter, but this time they finally had a nice 3pts shooting game with 8-19 3pts! Everything was easy for the Heat in Game 3, with them having 31 assists on the 41 shots they made in the game. Of course it's not easy for Miami to have these great numbers again, but Dwyane Wade is out and he shot 1-12 FG in Game 3, while they won't shoot 14-25 FT as a team and it's also unlikely that they will commit 19 turnovers once again today. Even though this game may have worse FG% than Game 3, that will compensated with an improvement in these three areas. Therefore, after the Game 3 had 195 points scored, I expect today's game to be a little bit more and with this game having the same totals line as Game 3, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/23: Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

Milwaukee  at Miami

NBA - 721 Milwaukee Bucks @ 722 Miami Heat Projected Line: Miami by 18 points Miami's superior athleticism on the perimeter on the defensive end is a terrible matchup for the Bucks's backcourt, preventing them from having big games. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings actually had decent shooting nights on the Game 1 of this series, but the team's overall offense was basically just their guards improvising off the dribble all the time and attempted contested poor shots. Milwaukee's ball movement was poor and I don't expect it to get any better today. The Heat's aggressive rotations and closeouts force Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy to put it on the floor, where they aren't comfortable. To make things even worse for them both Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova looked clearly banged up, especially Sanders who was basically played at 50% of his skills. Milwaukee dished just 14 assists, they had just 7 transition plays against the Heat's quick defense and with Miami shooting well to the basket, the Bucks simply have no chance. On the other end, the Heat shot 21-23 FG at the rim on Game 1, they shot 56% FG and most of their missed shots were wide open attempts. Miami shot just 7-23 3pts, with Shane Battier shooting 1-7 3pts and Ray Allen 2-8. Most of these attempts were on great looks and it was actually uncharacteristic for them to miss so many of those shots, so I expect the Heat to shoot better from the perimeter tonight. The same thing should happen with their turnover numbers, as they had 19 in Game 1 and some of them were really sloppy. I was afraid that they would be a bit rusty as their starting lineup hadn't played together for a while and their turnovers number was indeed a bit higher than usual. On a matchup between a team who creates easy looks on offense in virtually every possession and a team that even though they made several contested poor shots still lost the Game 1 of this series by more than 20 points, I can only expect Miami to blowout Milwaukee once again tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Miami Heat (-14) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/21: Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat

NBA - 713 Milwaukee Bucks @ 714 Miami Heat

Projected Line: Miami by 17 points

Nobody expects the Bucks to beat the Heat on this series, except Brandon Jennings, who publicly mentioned that Milwaukee would beat Miami in six games, something that will only cause Miami to come fired up today to destroy the Bucks. During the regular season, we saw Miami would using their extra gear when they really needed. For several times, we saw the Heat hanging around against inferior teams, just to insert an extra gear down the stretch and win their games. Today, I expect the Heat to use their "extra gear" for a longer period of time.

Any team will have a very tough task against Miami on the playoffs, but things will be even tougher for the Bucks on this series. Milwaukee's most used lineup features a 3-guard combo with Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis and J.J. Redick and even though these three layers are capable of doing some damage on offense, their defensive level is disastrous, as they are all undersized and so, they will get pounded today by Dwyane Wade and Lebron James. Milwaukee's coach will be forced to use Marquis Daniels and Luc Mbah a Moute for defensive proposes thanks to that, but that will only destroy their offensive chemistry, without boosting their defense that much. Larry Sanders's back problems are still an issue and he isn't at 100% right now. Chris Bosh will also be a tough matchup for him, as he plays away from the basket most of the time, so Sanders will have to leave the rim on defense, the area where he dominates with his shot-blocking abilities. 

These two teams faced each other already in April, with the Heat comfortably winning the game, even though they played without Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Lebron James simply dominated the game in every single way. The Heat won the contest by "just" 11 points because they struggled to hit treys with 8-35 3pts, despite having almost every time a clean look. Lebron had 11-16 FG, 28 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists in 30 minutes, with the Heat outscoring the Bucks by 21 points during the time Lebron was on court. Miami's dynamic offense won't have any problem in scoring against Milwaukee today. I expect the Heat's defense to be aggressive and they are an elite team on pressuring the opposing ball handler, closing lanes and the Bucks are turnover prone. They committed 20 turnovers on their last game against Heat and with so many turnovers, Miami's excellent transition game will have lots of chances today to score a high number of fast break points. This should all result on a blowout win for Miami and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 714 Miami Heat (-13) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/17: Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 509 Milwaukee Bucks @ 510 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Lines: 199 points | pk line

Oklahoma City will be shorthanded for tonight's game, as they will rest their key players. According to reports, Kevin Durant, Kevin Martin, Derek Fisher and Nick Collison won't play tonight, while Russell Westbrook will play just 6-10 minutes. Therefore, the Thunder will play most of the game with Hasheem Thabeet, Daniel Orton, DeAndre Liggins, Jeremy Lamb, Ronnie Brewer and Perry Jones III. With these players, Oklahoma City will be very far from their normal level on offense.

Milwaukee has their #8 seed in the East locked, so they will also rotate their players tonight. However, they have some sense of urgency to win tonight, as they are currently on a 5-game losing streak and they won't want to go to the playoffs with six losses in a row. Of course Milwaukee will give a lot of minutes to their backups, but they have some experienced players coming off the bench such as Samuel Dalembert, Drew Gooden, Marquis Daniels, Gustavo Ayon and Ekpe Udoh. Looking at the players that will be on court most of the time on tonight's game, I believe the totals line is super overrated and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. As I expect Milwaukee to have a great chance of winning this game against a depleted Thunder, I'll be also taking the Bucks tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Milwaukee Bucks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/12: Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 707 Milwaukee Bucks @ 708 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: 205 points

Milwaukee will be shorthanded tonight without Larry Sanders and Brandon Jennings. I don't believe Jennings's absence won't be very important, as his 82games.comnumbers show that the team has been having a negative production lately with him on the court. On the other hand, the same doesn't happen with Larry Sanders. When he is on the court, the Bucks average a defensive rating of 102.7, but without him the defensive rating goes up to 109.4! This isn't very surprising, considering Sanders is by far the team's best defender. Milwaukee is coming from an overtime loss at Orlando, where Larry Sanders only played 15 minutes and without him, the Magic pounded Milwaukee with 68 points in the paint and 25-42 FG at the rim + 9-18 FG from 3-9 feet. Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris had also huge games with 13-20 FG and 14-26 FG! Without Jennings tonight, Milwaukee's backcourt will be formed by J.J. Redick and Monta Ellis, two super offensive-oriented players, who play zero defense. The Bucks's defense allowed 1.22 PPP on transitions on their last 10 games and with their poor interior defense as well without Sanders, Atlanta has an excellent spot to have a huge offensive game tonight.

Atlanta is coming from an important win at Philadelphia, where they had revenge over the Sixers. The good part of the fact that they rested some of their key players at San Antonio last Saturday was that the bench players that had to play major minutes gained confidence with that. Good examples of that are Mike Scott and John Jenkins. The Hawks scored 25 fast break points and shot 12-18 FG in transitions against Philadelphia and they will certainly have a similar success tonight against the Bucks. On this kind of games where Atlanta faces a weak opponent, they tend to relax a lot, especially on the defensive end, therefore I believe Milwaukee will also have a good offensive outcome tonight, as they will still have good offensive players like Monta Ellis, J.J. Redick, Mike Dunleavy and Ersan Ilyasova on the field. I expect a very high scoring game in here, so I'll be taking the Over tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 04/01: Charlotte Bobcats @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA - 741 Charlotte Bobcats @ 742 Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Line: 210 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Charlotte's defense keeps struggling and their defensive ratings on their last eight games show exactly that: 120.46; 121.47; 109.09; 103.99; 123.25; 118.52; 125.41; 118.53! However, the good news for them is that their offense with Josh McRoberts, Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson is now quite decent, as their offensive ratings on their last seven games show: 127.11; 120.37; 100.84; 83.62 (@Miami on a terrible spot); 123.29; 113.47; 106.34! The Bobcats's offense depends a lot from the play from their guards Walker and Henderson, so the Bobcats should be fine for today, as Milwaukee's backcourt defense is quite poor. The Bucks like to play at a fast tempo, something that only benefits the Bobcats's offense as well.

The problem for Charlotte tonight is that I expect Milwaukee to have a big offensive game as well. That's not tough to do against Charlotte, but they have especially a nice bounce back spot for tonight, after their key players struggled against Oklahoma City on their last game, with Monta Ellis shooting 3-17 FG, Brandon Jennings 3-13 FG, J.J. Redick 4-12 FG and Mike Dunleavy 0-2 FG, for a combined shooting of 10-44 (22%) FG. Therefore, the fired up Bucks's backcourt should have no problems in crushing the Bobcats's terrible defense tonight. Charlotte is especially poor on pick and roll ball handler defense and spot up defense, therefore there isn't a single excuse for the Bucks's backcourt not to have a huge offensive game tonight.

I expect this game to be a fast paced contest, especially because Milwaukee's Coach Jim Boylan has mentioned that his team needs to play even faster than what they've been doing lately.

"I'd like for us to play to our strength," Bucks coach Jim Boylan said. "We talked about that in the game against the Lakers, about trying to get up and down the floor with a little more pace to our offense. We've got to be more concerned about our identity as opposed to who we're playing against. I know the Milwaukee Bucks team is at its best when we're playing that way, when we're outletting the ball and we're getting down the floor, our big guys are running and we're playing in transition. That's just like a lot of NBA teams. So that's what we're trying to focus on right now from an offensive standpoint."

On a fast paced game and with Milwaukee having a natural offensive bounce back game against the lowly Bobcats, while Charlotte's offense should also be quite decent against Milwaukee's poor backcourt defense, I can only expect this game to be a very high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 741/742 Over 203,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker