NBA Preseason Plays 10/17

NBA Preseason Pick #1: Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Clippers

Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play

Pick: Los Angeles Clippers (-4) @ -105 / 1.95 on Pinnacle Sports

Detailed Writeup:

This is a back to back spot for Utah and even though they easily beat the Lakers last night, with a lot of young guys in the team, this won't be an easy spot for them. On the other hand, the Clippers are still winless in the preseason and in fact, they haven't played for a while in this preseason. The LA team actually played at Utah earlier in the preseason, in a tough back to back spot for the Clippers. Now the situation is reserved and I believe the LA team will pick up an easy blowout win tonight.

NBA Preseason Pick #2: Toronto Raptors @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 204,5 @ -103 / 1.97 on Pinnacle Sports

Detailed Writeup:

Even though Russell Westbrook will play tonight, I think the totals line for this game is overvalued. The Thunder is 4-0 Over on this preseason, but this matchup actually points to a relatively low scoring game in here, as both teams have nice frontcourt defenses that should prevent the opponent from scoring easy points down low. I believe this is the preseason game involving Oklahoma City that will finally go under the total posted and so, I'll take the Under in here.

NBA Preseason Pick #3: Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat

Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 204 @ -101 / 1.99 on Pinnacle Sports

Detailed Writeup:

Golden State's offense has been excellent in this preseason, while Miami's defense has been quite disappointing. The Warriors scored 104 points against Denver last night, even though they played without David Lee the whole game and Stephen Curry & Klay Thompson during the whole second half. I expect Golden State to continue using their diabolic pace tonight against a Heat team that has been poor on defense, but decent on offense during this preseason. I expect a high scoring game and so, I'll take the Over in here.

NBA Preseason Plays 10/16

NBA Preseason Pick #1: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Denver Nuggets (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

This pick is fairly easy to explain. Denver will take this game very seriously, while Golden State won’t:

"I'm going to start playing our starters a little bit more, and our rotation guys a little bit more to get them" Denver’s head coach Brian Shaw said. "To get them in the kind of shape that they need to be in and to get them more accustomed to the type of minutes that they are going to be playing for us. And then the other guys, not so much. I'm going to start playing these games a little more like the regular games."

“Harrison Barnes will have an added chance to shine 30 minutes away from his hometown of Ames, because he should get plenty of shots. Center Andrew Bogut and power forward David Lee will not play in the first game of a back-to-back set, and guards Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are expected to play only the first half.”

“They’re vets and don’t need to play in a preseason back-to-back” said Golden State’s head coach Steve Kerr, who predicted that he’ll sit Andre Iguodala against Miami on Friday in Kansas City. “They’ve shown that they’re in good shape. I just want them to get rhythm, without too much wear and tear.”

Even if Golden State gets to half time with an interesting lead, Denver should have no problems in getting back into the game in the second half. Therefore, I’ll take the Nuggets tonight.

NBA Preseason Pick #2: Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

Besides Kevin Durant being obviously out for tonight’s game, the same will happen with Russell Westbrook, who won’t be on the field tonight. Oklahoma City’s starters tonight will be Steven Adams, Lance Thomas, Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb and Sebastian Telfair, while Anthony Morrow is questionable with a sore left ankle.

While this lineup from Oklahoma City lacks obvious scoring punch, Steven Adams is a nice defender at the rim and he will cause problems to the Pelicans’ frontcourt offense as well. I expect an ugly game in here, with both teams struggling to score and so, I’ll take the Under in here.

NBA Preseason Play 10/15

NBA Preseason Pick: Toronto Raptors @Boston Celtics (played in Portland, ME)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

According to last year’s numbers, this line should be at 194/196 points. That’s probably why the first game between these two teams in the preseason had a totals line of 197 points, while today’s game has a totals line of 204 points!

That game ended up suffering an offensive explosion with 225 points scored, with an absolute lack of defensive aggression by both teams, but also with both teams hitting some really tough shots. When we have Avery Bradley shooting 9-15 FG and 4-5 3pts, I guess this says it all! In fact, these two teams combined 26-51 3pts! That’s 51% 3pts! The story of that game was marked by the duel between Kyle Lowry and Marcus Smart, with Lowry outplaying the Celtics’ rookie.

"You could see me being lenient at times" Marcus Smart said on Tuesday. "At times I picked him up, it was very effective; kind of interrupted him, speeded him up at a different pace that he didn't want to play at. In the beginning you could see that's not what was going on. I was letting him dictate the game. He was controlling the game."

I think Marcus Smart will be fired up today to try to play a lot better defense against Kyle Lowry than he did in the first game between these two teams. In fact, with today’s game being a rematch, I expect both teams to be a lot more aggressive on defense this time around. A neutral venue game will also help, with both teams coming fired up. I believe this totals line is completely overvalued due to the offensive explosion of the first game and so, I’ll take the Under in here.

NBA 2014-15 Season Message

A new NBA season is starting in two weeks and I am very excited about it! I've already ended my last season's review that I do every year, made some adjustments and now I'm ready to roll!

This will be my 9th NBA season as a handicapper and this is indeed my bread and butter. I'm proud to say that I've never had a single losing regular season on my whole career. We are coming from another brilliant NBA regular season campaign, where we absolutely crushed the books with +65.3 units of profit, while using a 1 unit stake for a regular play, or +140.1 while using a 3 units stake for a regular play. The last two NBA regular seasons were my two best NBA regular seasons ever (975-787 ATS 55.3%), which proves that my off-season adjustments and experience gained over the years are helping us in improving our already amazing results year after year.

I'm a high volume handicapper and I carefully study all games no matter what, so if I see value in every game of a card, then we will have plays in every game. I refuse to discard valuable plays only due to having a high volume of plays on a certain day. I've been highly successful on the NBA with this approach and so, there is no reason to change it.

I also advise you to religiously follow a money management strategy. Don't freak out after a bad run! I'll have unbelievable runs throughout the season where I'll sweep the card, but eventually during the season I'll also have some cold streaks. A NBA season is very long, it's a marathon, not a sprint and what it really matters is the final result.

Unlike previous years, I decided not to write team previews for the upcoming season. I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I prefer spending that time watching preseason games and taking notes of them. Even though we were very successful in the last two NBA seasons, we struggled at the start of both seasons and this is a situation that I really want to change on the upcoming season.

Regarding changes for the upcoming season, we will have two big changes. First of all, I am very glad to announce that we will have a new website, which will be a lot more user-friendly. It will be based in a lot of suggestions that you made over the years and it should be fully available in a few weeks. Stay tuned for more information on the new website soon!

The other big change is regarding the release of plays. As a general rule, the plays will be sent earlier than in the past. The final update will be released at around 5/6PM EST, unless there are key players questionable in a game that I have a strong interest in. I will also warn you in advance (5/15 minutes) when plays will be released, so you are ready to bet when they get sent.

  

The NBA Season Package (PLAYOFFS included) will be available on my the new website when it gets released in the next few days. When we move to our new website, you’ll have to create an account on the new system and I will immediately give you access to the active packages that you have purchased in the old website. I’ll let you know in advance when the transition to the new website will happen, so you can sign up into the new system. By the way, the url will remain the same: http://www.andregomes.com

The price of the NBA Season will be the same as last year: $899. Even with more one great winning year last season, I decided not to increase the price of the package, as I believe that this is a fair price for everybody. In order to make the payment with the discount, make a direct payment via paypal, moneybookers or neteller with the price of the long-term package and shoot me an email to nbatipster.service@gmail.com

If you are interested in joining me into another super profitable NBA season, please reply to this email, so I can show you the methods of purchase you can use to buy this season's NBA package. For any comment or suggestion, feel free to reply to this email as well.

In the meantime, you can check my previous NBA regular season records in the excel file that I'm sending you in attachment or by checking the following link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Akt-xWmOAETFdEhDTzk2RDZCZlVkM2drNEVCTUJiUUE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

All the best,

André Gomes

NBA Finals Game 5 Premium Play 06/15

NBA - 709 Miami Heat @ 710 San Antonio Spurs

Play #1 

I have a small lean w/ SAS in this contest but this 6-pts spread line is tight IMO and so, we are not getting that much value. Note that the fact that both teams are getting an extra day of rest could help more the Heat than the Spurs.

After such two beatings, it is going to be tough for the Heat to win the series, let alone another game. Obviously, being coach Spoelstra a smart guy in making adjustments, we can expect MIA to make some major changes for this contest. Well, Miami need some major adjustments in both ends of the floor, but I think that they are more focused on the defensive end than exactly offensively…

It all started w/ the fact that Spoelstra mentioned that Udonis Haslem could get more minutes tonight – this is basically a “defensive minded” adjustment as Haslem is almost worthless on the offensive end and MIA could abandon their "small ball" strategy because they were literally spanked playing that style in L2 games .

MIA simply can’t play defense the way they are doing against the Spurs. To do so, It requires youth and extreme athleticism and all the trapping that MIA is doing vs. SAS’s ball handlers have turned against them – credit to coach Pop! I expect MIA to surprise a bit defensively in here as they will not play their usual defensive game plan and rather play more normal man-to-man defense and even some zone defense – this is a gut feeling of mine!

I thought that SAS wanted badly to push the pace in the series, but L2 games were extreme slow paced affairs! SAS feels comfortably in playing in such style right now, it minimizes the chance of committing TO’s (13 and 14 TO’s in L2 games after committing 23 in G1) and therefore, I expect this contest to also be a relatively slow paced game.

The Spurs’ defense has been incredibly smart in the last games… they are making the right calls in almost every MIA offensive possession: daring Wade & Chalmers to hit outside shots, daring Bosh to drive while closing out aggressively vs. him etc etc. Only LeBron James is doing his usual great stuff and still, Leonard is doing a tremendous job against him.

I expect this contest to be closer when compared to the L2 games w/ MIA’s defense being the biggest factor for that.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 06/12: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

San Antonio  at Miami

NBA - 707 San Antonio Spurs @ 708 Miami Heat Play #1 I’ve waited all day long to see if we could grab SAS+6 but ultimately we didn't have any success…actually, every time the line went MIA-5.5, it moved back pretty quickly. I understand that the Heat has a great record after losing one game in the playoffs in the Big 3 era, but the Spurs had 7 straight home games winning by +15 points and lost at home in G2, or the Heat was 8-0 at home in the playoffs but lost game 3 at home… Miami might win tonight’s game but this spread of 5 points is just too much against this Spurs team. Even though the Spurs crushed the Heat in the last game, it wasn’t the typical game in which MIA packed in and saved some energy for tonight…NO! The Heat gave everything in the second half! LeBron James played 40 minutes! MIA actually made a nice run in the 3rd quarter but they literally ran out of gas in the 4th quarter – a bad sign for tonight! SAS’s role players will be the MVP of this series! Unlike MIA that has several players playing subpar basketball: Chalmers, Cole and Ray Allen, the Spurs’ role players are stepping up right now. It is weird to watch the Spurs’ killing the Heat w/ “merely OK” games from Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. MIA needs LeBron to play like a superhuman and indeed he was a beast in G2 but the Heat barely defeated the Spurs in the game! I expect a somehow similar scenario for tonight…I have no doubt that MIA will bounce back in terms of energy and focus, but the Spurs will be ready for the challenge and they don’t deserve to be such “underdogs” in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 San Antonio Spurs (+5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 06/10

NBA - 705 San Antonio Spurs @ 706 Miami Heat 

Play #1 & #2

Some notes about Game 2:

This time, the Heat didn’t take any risks w/ LeBron James… James played the entire first quarter in Game 1 (the only player on the floor to play 12 straight minutes), but in G2, with 2:26 left in the first quarter, LeBron was replaced by D. Wade – lesson learnt!

On my series preview, I’ve said that Tiago Splitter could be a major factor (for both teams):

"Tiago Splitter could possibly be the X factor of this series. In the last year’s finals, when MIA downgraded their lineup to a more “small ball” unit w/ Mike Miller instead of U. Haslem, they didn’t care about Splitter and things have worked pretty well for them. I’m curious to see what Popovich will do if the Heat keeps using the same strategy… He was flexible enough to not start Splitter in games 5 and 6 vs. OKC, so we can expect Pop to be more active in adjustments this season vs. last season, when he was clearly outcoached by Erik Spoelstra in my opinion."

In the last game, he played only 19 minutes vs. 32 from Boris Diaw… It looks like Popovich doesn’t want to play “big” against the Heat right now, but it was w/ Splitter on the floor that the Spurs explored better their size edge down low – he had 5 assists!

His minutes-numbers quarter-by-quarter + SAS scoring + SAS points in the paint:

First Quarter -                   6:14       | 26pts  | 14pts paint
Second Quarter -             4:45       | 17pts  | 6pts paint        
Third Quarter -                  5:30       | 35pts  | 10pts paint
Fourth Quarter -               2:38       | 18pts | 4pts paint

The correlation w/ him on the floor + SAS scoring more points near the basket is pretty clear to me. Let’s see how many minutes Splitter will get tonight!

Like in the first game, the pace of the second half was slower when compared to the first half, and once again, the Heat looked more comfortable than the Spurs in the half court. Also, Game 2 was way slower than the first game of the series! In my opinion, the Spurs were “extra” focused in not turning the ball over after committing 23 TO’s in the first game and so, they played w/ a more conservative mindset that turned against them late in the 4th quarter. Popovich said it all: “You move it or you die,”

It was tough to lose w/ the Over in the last game as we “only” needed 44 points in the 4th quarter but both teams combined to score just 19 points in the last 6 minutes of the game.

For this third game of the series, I really think that “fatigue” will be a major factor. With the Spurs having a considerable edge in terms of depth, I expect them to be super competitive tonight.

Between games 1 and 2, both teams enjoyed 2 days off to rest. However between game 3 and tonight’s game, they had only one day to rest + travel from SA to MIA!

“The ball stuck to us,” Popovich said after the game. “We tried to do it individually and we’re not good enough to do that. 

“We can’t put it in somebody’s hands and have them create everything for us. It’s got to be a group effort and we didn’t do that. That puts a lot of pressure on everything else.” 

The fact that Spurs didn’t use their usual game plan of trying to tire out their opponent and lost the game is a good for tonight, because they will be more focused in this particular area, and this where the Spurs can really take some advantage over the Heat.

With the fatigue being a key factor, I expect the Heat’s offense to struggle a bit tonight. Note that they rely heavily on their starters – only 12 points in the last game came from the bench! According to NBA.com/stats, the Heat connected 55.3% FG in “contested shots” (26-47 FG) vs. 44.0% FG from the Spurs (22-50), so I expect a natural letdown from MIA offense in here.

Finally, rebounding could be a key factor in this potential low scoring game and the Spurs also has a considerable edge in my opinion. The battle for the glass was a tight one in the first game, but the Spurs clearly outrebounded MIA in the last game w/ reb/rate of 54.5%!

My fair line for this contest is MIA-2 & 194 points and therefore, I think that we have the proper edge to play both SAS+5 & Under 198 as my Single Dime Plays!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 San Antonio Spurs (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 06/08

NBA - 703 Miami Heat @ 704 San Antonio Spurs

Play #1

I had the OVER in the first game of the NBA finals…

“I think that this series will be a relatively high scoring series and (even) more fun to watch than last season’s Finals.

Note that both teams’ strategy will favor a high scoring affair…

It is pretty clear to me that the Spurs will push the pace at every chance! They have a huge edge over MIA in terms of depth, so they will try to “tire” the Heat w/ their superior depth, and so, they will play w/ high tempo and energy. This has been their strategy for the whole season and I don’t think this will change in here.

On the other end, it’s pretty clear to me that MIA doesn’t want to play “BIG” against the Spurs, especially w/ Rashard Lewis playing so well lately for them! MIA was clearly outplayed in the Finals last season when they started Haslem + Bosh on the frontcourt in the first 3 games of the series when they had to deal vs. Duncan + Splitter, so I don’t think that this duo will share a single minute on the court at the same time. MIA’s small ball lineup is clearly their best weapon and unlike last season, we will watch them play in this way since the start of the series.”

I don’t think that the mindset from both teams will change for tonight and so, I’m riding once again w/ the OVER.

With all the A/C stuff from the first game, it is pretty clear to me that Popovich will instruct his players to push the pace at every chance. SAS has a substantial depth edge over MIA and obviously, they’ll try to explore such advantage.

Obviously, the Spurs eventually won’t hit 58.8% of their shots today, but I also think that they will reduce a bit the number of TO’s – even against the aggressive MIA’s defense, 23 TO’s was too much! SAS scored 20 fast break points and they generated plenty of good looks for their shooters.

On the other end, MIA also generated a ton of quality shots. They scored only 3 points in the last 4 minutes of the game, so they could easily reached the century mark in points. The absence of LeBron James was major factor…after all, we are dealing with the best player of the world.

Again…

“…MIA was clearly outplayed in the Finals last season when they started Haslem + Bosh on the frontcourt in the first 3 games of the series when they had to deal vs. Duncan + Splitter, so I don’t think that this duo will share a single minute on the court at the same time..”

Well… Haslem simply didn’t play in the first game! There is the sense that Miami could have won the game if LeBron remained in the game so I really don’t think that the Heat will change their strategy tonight: they will play small ball, they’ll try to create TO’s and score in transition.

KEY FACTOR: Game 1 was this Thursday, so both teams had 2 days off to “rest” and prepare tonight’s game! Note that they won’t have the same “luxury” for the next game – only one day off!

My fair line for this contest is 202 points and therefore, I'm taking the OVER in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Plays 06/05

NBA - 701 Miami Heat @ 702 San Antonio Spurs

Play #1 & #2

I have a small lean for SAS to win the NBA Finals this season, but at the current prices, (SAS priced about @ -140) simply there isn’t the proper value in my opinion to give SAS more than 58/60% of chances to win the title.

Some interesting thoughts about this matchup:

In the playoffs, MIA has faced CHA, BKN & IND. While these 3 teams have different styles of play (especially BKN when compared to CHA & IND), all of them played at some serious slow pace:

Regular Season Pace Factor Rankings:

CHA #21
BKN #25
IND #20
…
SAS #10

MIA opponent’s game plans were similar through the playoffs – slow down the pace and dominate down low. I have some major doubts that the Spurs will employ the same strategy in the Finals because simply that’s not their style.

Tiago Splitter could possibly be the X factor of this series. In the last year’s finals, when MIA downgraded their lineup to a more “small ball” unit w/ Mike Miller instead of U. Haslem, they didn’t care about Splitter and things have worked pretty well for them. I’m curious to see what Popovich will do if the Heat keeps using the same strategy… He was flexible enough to not start Splitter in games 5 and 6 vs. OKC, so we can expect Pop to be more active in adjustments this season vs. last season, when he was clearly outcoached by Erik Spoelstra in my opinion.

For this first game both teams are rested and almost 100% healthy (Tony Parker’s injury is the only question mark). If you remember, this didn’t happen last season as the Spurs were coming from a sweep 4-0 series against MEM and had 9 DAYS to rest & prepare G1, while the Heat had a brutal physical series vs. IND that went to the distance and therefore, they had just 2 days to prepare the first game of the NBA Finals.

I think that this series will be a relatively high scoring series and (even) more fun to watch than last season’s Finals.

Note that both teams’ strategy will favor a high scoring affair…

It is pretty clear to me that the Spurs will push the pace at every chance! They have a huge edge over MIA in terms of depth, so they will try to “tire” the Heat w/ their superior depth, and so, they will play w/ high tempo and energy. This has been their strategy for the whole season and I don’t think this will change in here.

On the other end, it’s pretty clear to me that MIA doesn’t want to play “BIG” against the Spurs, especially w/ Rashard Lewis playing so well lately for them! MIA was clearly outplayed in the Finals last season when they started Haslem + Bosh on the frontcourt in the first 3 games of the series when they had to deal vs. Duncan + Splitter, so I don’t think that this duo will share a single minute on the court at the same time. MIA’s small ball lineup is clearly their best weapon and unlike last season, we will watch them play in this way since the start of the series.

I also have a small play w/ Miami in the first quarter…

SAS has been killing their opponents all season long in the second quarter when their great 2nd unit shares the ball and put an extra gear. However, I expect them to have some problems in the first quarter w/ Duncan + Splitter playing together against MIA’s small ball unit. Eventually, Splitter will come off and will be replaced by Boris Diaw, but until the substitution is made, MIA has some edge in my opinion.

Pick: 1.5 units ("Half" Single Dime Play) on 701 Miami Heat FIRST QUARTER (+1.5) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Finals Game 1 Preview

I have a small lean for SAS to win the NBA Finals this season, but at the current prices, (SAS priced about @ -140) simply there isn’t the proper value in my opinion to give SAS more than 58/60% of chances to win the title.

Some interesting thoughts about this matchup:

In the playoffs, MIA has faced CHA, BKN & IND. While these 3 teams have different styles of play (especially BKN when compared to CHA & IND), all of them played at some serious slow pace:

Regular Season Pace Factor Rankings:

CHA #21
BKN #25
IND #20
…
SAS #10

MIA opponent’s game plans were similar through the playoffs – slow down the pace and dominate down low. I have some major doubts that the Spurs will employ the same strategy in the Finals because simply that’s not their style.

Tiago Splitter could possibly be the X factor of this series. In the last year’s finals, when MIA downgraded their lineup to a more “small ball” unit w/ Mike Miller instead of U. Haslem, they didn’t care about Splitter and things have worked pretty well for them. I’m curious to see what Popovich will do if the Heat keeps using the same strategy… He was flexible enough to not start Splitter in games 5 and 6 vs. OKC, so we can expect Pop to be more active in adjustments this season vs. last season, when he was clearly outcoached by Erik Spoelstra in my opinion.

For this first game both teams are rested and almost 100% healthy (Tony Parker’s injury is the only question mark). If you remember, this didn’t happen last season as the Spurs were coming from a sweep 4-0 series against MEM and had 9 DAYS to rest & prepare G1, while the Heat had a brutal physical series vs. IND that went to the distance and therefore, they had just 2 days to prepare the first game of the NBA Finals.

NBA Premium Card 05/31

NBA - 523 San Antonio Spurs @ 524 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1 & #2

It is pretty curious that the L5 games of this series went all “Under” the total posted. The winning team of those games scored 112, 106, 105 and 117 points, so there was an obvious correlation between all those contests being blowout games w/ the fact that the losing team didn’t "show up" on the offensive end.

For tonight’s contest and for the first time in 6 games, I really think this contest is going to be a close game and naturally, both teams will score @ decent rate.

SAS’s coach Popovich made a smart move for G5, w/ Matt Bonner being inserted in the starting line instead of Tiago Splitter. Note that Bonner wasn’t particularly good at all… actually, he didn’t score a single point (0-4 FG!), but his presence made a big difference. Instead of facing a clogged paint, SAS offense had room to operate, and they were super aggressive. After being denied around the rim for two straight games + scoring just 3 fast break points, San Antonio bounced back to shoot 15-21 FG @ the rim & they scored 14 fast break points! 

Not only the presence of Bonner created much more space for SAS offense, but also, it separated the Duncan-Splitter duo that has been very ineffective especially with the return of Ibaka. 

In order to defeat OKC in G5, coach Pop was more focused w/ their own offensive problems than in stopping OKC offense…a good blueprint for tonight’s game. 

I don’t think that OKC can make any substantial and impactful adjustments for tonight… by playing w/ a “stretch four”, OKC has to play small ball w/ SAS! They can play Ibaka @ center but still, he’ll have to deal w/ Duncan 1*1 and so, he won’t have the same room and space to help @ weak side. 

Bottom line, I don’t expect SAS to struggle on the offensive end in the same way they struggled in G3 & G4! 

Obviously, we can expect a strong bounce back from OKC - effort wise. OKC didn’t manage well the minutes of their star players in G4 (Durant played 41min and Westbrook 45min!) and they paid the price: they scored only 4 fast break points + “just” 20 free throws! We can expect them to be ultra aggressive for sure. However, the good news for SAS is that Popovich is a tremendous coach, and in the last game, only Leonard logged more than 30 minutes of action (33min), so fatigue won’t be an issue for SAS. 

My fair line for this contest is OKC being a “marginal” factor and therefore, this 4-pts spread line has some value for SAS! I’m also playing w/ OVER because with the game on the line @ 4th quarter, we will get more points than the previous contests (trash time) in which both teams combined to score 38, 47, 44 & 36 pts!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523 San Antonio Spurs (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523/524 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 05/30: Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

Indiana  at Miami

NBA - 521 Indiana Pacers @ 522 Miami Heat Play #1 I expect Miami to close the deal tonight and win the series 4-2 without much trouble… I’ve made a mini-recap about G5 that is the blueprint for tonight’s game: “I’ve just watched yesterday’s NBA game between MIA & IND and some weird stuff happened: Lebron James w/ foul trouble with just 24 minutes of action; the occasional Paul George’s random offensive explosive game w/ 37 points scored, he had one +30 pts game vs. WAS and another one vs. WAS, so I guess this type of game was due to happen in this series”  IND was able to score 93 points for a nice Off. Rtg = 114.4! However, they didn’t show anything new or surprised the Heat… They had only 13 assists and Roy Hibbert isn’t an offensive threat for them. They scored 93 points primarily because Paul George went off and scored 37 points while hitting 11-19 FG (58%) in CONTESTED SHOTS according to NBA.com! Finally, the Pacers dominated the boards (as usual) w/ 55% reb/rate. Why I don’t think IND will be competitive tonight: 1) Obviously, LeBron James! James played only 24 minutes and scored just 7 points – career low’s for him! I don’t need to say that he will bounce back tonight b/c this is just common sense… However, note that Paul George is coming from a monumental effort in the last game in which he logged a game high 45 minutes!! He is due for a natural shooting regression and the fact that he will face a “fresh” LeBron James won’t help him either. Also, without Chris Andersen & James in foul trouble, MIA was really undersized in the last game. After all, James was averaging 8 rebounds per game in the first 4 games of the series and so, IND had a nice spot to dominate down low! The fact that they scored a series high 42 points in the paint in G5 wasn’t a “coincidence”! 2) Effort Levels! I’ve mentioned last night that SAS would want to play w/ nice tempo in order to explore their superior depth over OKC, and once the second quarter started, they put an extra gear w/ their second unit.  I expect a similar scenario for tonight’s game… In the last game, 3 IND’s starters logged at least 41 minutes of action in G5 with Hibbert and George Hill playing 38 minutes each! (IND’s bench scored only 6 points)! With them relying so heavily in their starters, I expect a natural physical letdown from IND in here, especially w/ a “fresh” LeBron James on the court, and w/ MIA having more depth right now (Lewis, Allen, Cole and Birdman if he plays are all playing quite well in this series). 3) Referees! I expect MIA to get some natural “home calls” after what happened in the last game @IND w/ LeBron James. I really don’t think that MIA will get only 8 FT’s tonight as I expect them to be super aggressive in here, particularly James. My fair line for this contest is Miami having a classic blowout line of 10/12 points and so, I’m taking the Heat as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/28

NBA - 517 Miami Heat @ 518 Indiana Pacers 

Play #1 & #2

So far in the series, the Pacers’ defense simply can’t defend the Heat, as MIA had 109.2, 110.6, 120.2 & 125.1 Off. Rtg’s in the first 4 games of the series! MIA scored 54 points in the paint in the first game and since then, they have scored “just” 32, 40 & 38 pts. However, they have compensated such decrease w/ better outside shooting – 26-62 3pts (42%) vs. 6-23 3pts in G1.

The most important factor for me is related w/ Roy Hibbert! Really, it doesn’t matter if Hibbert is on the court or not… actually, MIA is scoring @ better rates w/ Hibbert on the court! This simply didn’t happen in the past – a good sign of how MIA’s offense has solved this chronic problem for them.  

MIA scored 102 points in the last game while shooting 46.4% FG, but they were hitting above +50% FG before the garbage time arrived. Note that MIA scored only 8 points in the last 7:41 of the game (at the time, they were winning 94-71!)… if MIA ended the game shooting +50% FG, it would have been the third time in 4 games in this series!

Because Luis Scola did well offensively in G4, it wouldn’t shock me if IND’s coach Vogel give up of Hibbert during the game in order to improve IND’s offensive game. I expect IND to be more aggressive tonight by playing at home and get at least +20 FT’s.

Still, it won’t be enough. I really don’t think that they have the proper confidence to beat the Heat right now… they are making excuses for everything:

“After Game 4, Paul George spent most of his press conference bemoaning the officiating. He got fined $25,000 for suggesting the free-throw disparity (Miami’s 34 attempts to Indina’s 17) was due to some “home cooking.”;

David West had some similar things to say, noting that their must be some “new rules” at play as a reason that the Pacers sent the Heat at the line so much.;

They are even questioning their own coach:

“Roy Hibbert, after the loss, wanted to talk about the game plan and his lack of touches as the reason that he scored 0 points for the fourth time in 17 playoff games this season. “

I expect both Ray Allen and Chris Andersen to play tonight while MIA will finish the job in 5 games w/ my Totals fair line = 186/188 points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Over 183.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/27

NBA - 515 San Antonio Spurs @ 516 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1 & #2

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Serge Ibaka returned in the last game and there is no doubt that he had a tremendous impact in both ends of the floor. He was great shooting the ball from mid/long range and ended the game w/ 6-7 FG – something that Collison / Perkins / Adams couldn’t offer such quality. He was also a key piece on the defensive end (as usual).

However, the biggest difference in the last game was the addition of Reggie Jackson to the starting lineup in the place of Thabo Sefolosha (who didn’t play a single minute!). W/ Ibaka & Jackson on the court, more than being better on the defensive end, OKC is way more dangerous offensively right now as only Perkins is a non-offensive threat for them. Even Jeremy Lamb received 18 minutes from S. Brooks – a good sign that OKC is more focused on the offensive end vs. SAS right now.

Regardless what SAS does on the defensive end, OKC is now more prepared and ready to be effective on offense – something that didn’t happen in the first two games of the series.

The biggest difference in my opinion for tonight will be related w/ SAS offense!

It was quite naturally that SAS struggled a bit in the last game w/ the presence of Serge Ibaka down low. After shooting 89% & 68% FG at the rim in the first two games of the series, SAS hit just 56% FG in the last game! Surely, I expect Popovich to adjust properly in terms of floor spacing… still, note that Ibaka is far from being @ 100%! I’ve noticed several plays in which Ibaka simply didn’t move and offered his usual excellent ability of team help defense.

Despite struggling a bit to score near the basket, the biggest problem for SAS in G3 was their inability to hit good looking outside shots: SAS went just 3-16 FG from 16-23 feet! Also, according to NBA.com, SAS went 13-14 FG in uncontested shots – 32% FG vs. 19-34 FG from OKC (a tremendous 56% mark!). While SAS keeps generating wide open shots for their perimeter players, I expect a natural bounce back from them in this area and so, I think that they will extremely competitive in here in a shootout affair.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 San Antonio Spurs (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/26

NBA - 513 Indiana Pacers @ 514 Miami Heat

Play #1

I’m playing once again w/ the Under in this series after losing both sides & total plays in the last game. The Pacers did a great job in the first half especially on the defensive end while they used David West and Roy Hibbert down low on offense.

Obviously, the storyline of that game was the Heat’s tremendous second half in which they hit almost 60% of their shots. MIA’s small ball crushed the Pacers @ 4th quarter… I really don’t think that IND’s coach Vogel will put David West on Ray Allen once again… Also, George Hill played only 8 minutes in the second half due to foul trouble w/ the same thing happening w/ Paul George. These two players are really key defensive players and naturally, Norris Cole & Ray Allen enjoyed some good looks.

Note also that both teams were super sharp in contested shots according to NBA.com: MIA w/17-33 FG 52% FG & IND w/ 23-42 FG for 55% from the field! I expect some regression from both teams in here while IND will be more prepared for MIA’s small ball @ 4th quarter. My fair line in here is 180 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ UNDER.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Card 05/25

NBA - 511 San Antonio Spurs @ 512 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1

I have a strong lean w/ Under in this contest but I really needed the confirmation that Ibaka will play. There is yet to be released an official confirmation but it looks like he will play tonight:

“The most important thing against this team is defense. I’m sure you saw the last two games in San Antonio,” Ibaka said Sunday morning after going through his first workout with teammates since the injury on May 15. “So we really need a defensive mind tonight.”

Ibaka said the Thunder, with or without him, are ready to put a charge into this so-far lopsided series. 

“You are going to see tonight,” Ibaka said. “You are going to see tonight.” 

Obviously, it is impossible for him to be @100% but his presence on the floor will certainly help the team’s mindset for tonight. After being torched on the defensive end in the first two games of the series, OKC had some time to prepare tonight’s game. I wouldn’t be surprised that w/ Ibaka on the court, OKC will adapt a similar defensive game plan of switching everything just to confuse SAS’s offensive machine.

On the other end, SAS defense is just too good & disciplined and because OKC will have to throw some non-offensive threat players to the court, SAS defense will be focused in slowing down Durant and Westbrook.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 208.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Card 05/24

NBA - 509 Indiana Pacers @ 540 Miami Heat

Play #1 & #2

I expect the Pacers to be super competitive today and therefore, having the chance to get 7 full points for them = nice value for us.

I took Miami in G2 and even though they won the game and subsequently, we cashed w/ the Play, I really didn’t expect them to struggle so much…  Actually, The Pacers led 75-72 with 5:33 left in the game, but Miami went on a 10-0 run to put the game out just out of reach. That run happened after the Paul George “incident” and also David West being poked in the eye and being replaced by Luis Scola didn’t help the cause - The Pacers didn’t have any rhythm and aggressiveness in both ends of the floor. Nevertheless, the Pacers were super competitive despite shooting just 40% FG vs. a sharp shooting Heat team that hit 51% of their shots!

The Pacers simply dominated the boards (once again) w/ 57% reb/rate and they improved dramatically in protecting the rim – after allowing 54 pts in the paint in G1, IND allowed just 32 points in G2!

In my opinion, the resting time will be the X factor for tonight’s game and it will help way more the Pacers than the Heat! I’m not talking only about Paul George’s concussion issue…

So far in the series: IND starters are +23 in 57 minutes vs., all other lineups -16 in 39 minutes!

MIA’s second unit has been a factor in the series w/ Chris Andersen and Norris Cole vs. IND’s ineffective bench. IND’s starters are logging heavy minutes – 4 of them played more than 40 minutes in G2 and so, having the chance to rest 3 full days will help more IND IMO.

Last game was a super slow paced contest w/ Pace Factor = 78.5 according to my numbers – it was the slowest paced game of the postseason for both teams! I expect a similar pace for tonight and so, both teams would have to be extremely effective on the offensive end to hit this totals line of 183 points. My fair line for this contest is 180 points and MIA being favored by 3 or 4 points and therefore, I’m taking both the Pacers and the Under in here as my Single Dime Plays!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Indiana Pacers (+7) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 183 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 05/21: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City  at San Antonio

NBA - 507 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 508 San Antonio Spurs Play #1 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** I knew that Scott Brooks would try to surprise the Spurs in Game 1, but he really “tried” too much by playing some bizarre lineups especially w/ Durant @ center position! Without Ibaka, OKC is in a tough spot against this Spurs’ machine, but it was pretty clear for me that they don’t have a chance in playing small ball vs. SAS. The Spurs scored at will @ paint w/ 66 points in the paint & 24-27 FG at the rim! When Brooks decided to go “ultra small”, the Spurs’ offense simply exploded! The only bright spot for OKC in that game was in the third quarter: “That starting lineup did a good job in that third quarter,” Brooks said. “We were up one with four minutes to go. By playing with a lot of toughness on the defensive end and using our athleticism and our speed on the offensive end. That’s always a good recipe for our success, playing defensively with good hands, good toughness, the physicality that it takes to stop a very good offensive team like San Antonio.” OKC played their starting lineup for the first 9 minutes of the quarter and they held SAS’ offense to just 14 points in a 9-minutes span! IMO, this will be the blueprint for OKC tonight – they will try to win tonight via their defense and not by outscoring the Spurs. I expect OKC to play less small ball tonight as S. Adams will more than the 17 minutes logged in G1. Obviously, by playing “big”, OKC offense will be “easier” to defend as the Spurs’ defense will be almost exclusively focused in stopping Durant & Westbrook. I expect tonight’s contest to be played @ slower pace (NOTE: that 3rd quarter in G1 was the slowest paced quarter of the game, which is a good sign for this G2). I also expect Scott Brooks to ride his starting lineup a bit longer @ first & third quarter and so, I’m playing w/ Under FIRST QUARTER (once again) & UNDER FULL TIME as well. NOTE: Split the wager! Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 53.5 FIRST QUARTER @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 211 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada