NBA Free Premium Play 03/27: Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks

Portland  at Atlanta

NBA - 801 Portland Trail Blazers @ 802 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** We are dealing with two struggling teams that are coming for this contest w/ a great sense of urgency. I understand that both teams are struggling in both ends of the floor, but I expect this contest to have a good dose of defensive intensiveness. Kyle Korver most likely will not play tonight and he is really a key piece for this ATL team. We all know that ATL is basically jump shooting team and w/ Korver on the court, they have simply one of the best shooters in the league. Korver has missed L4 contests – all ATL losses as ATL went just 28-99 from 3pts land – a miserable 28% mark! On the other end, It looks like LaMarcus Aldridge will play tonight and while I expect him to be a bit rusty w/ his shot, his presence on the defensive end will be crucial. Not because he is a great defensive player but because without him, POR is playing some miserable small ball lineups that can't defend at all. My fair line for this contest is 202/204 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 207.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/20: Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers

Washington  at Portland

NBA - 705 Washington Wizards @ 706 Portland Trail Blazers ***FREE Premium Play*** In this contest we have two teams that are coming from OT games and so, a potential physical letdown isn’t out of sight in my opinion. We are dealing w/ two teams that basically are jump shooting teams w/ few to little presence down low. LMA is OUT for POR while Nene Hilario will miss the game as well. POR is averaging just 37.8 pts per game in L8 games and coincidently, the Wizards are averaging the exact same number in L8 games. With both teams primed to attempt a ton of outside jumpers, note that both WAS and POR are defending pretty well from 3pts in L10 games, WAS is allowing 35.7% (ranked #11 in the league during this stretch) while POR is allowing 34.8% (ranked #8). Without Aldridge, the Blazers will run a ton of PNR’s and the Wizards defense is ranked #3 in the league defending those “plays”. Actually, the Wizards were able to defeat the Blazers at home early on the season mostly because they held POR to just 2-16 FG in PNR ball handler plays. My fair line for this contest is 204 points and so, in my opinion we have the proper edge to play w/ Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies

Portland  at Memphis

NBA - 555 Portland Trail Blazers @ 556 Memphis Grizzlies Play #2 The Grizzlies are playing their best basketball of the season and right now, they have really one of the deepest benches in the league while they are a nightmare matchup for the Blazers. After losing @BKN without ZBO, MEM bounced back and defeated CHI & CHA in L2 games. They simply dominated down low in both games w/ clear edges in the boards + points in the paint. Note that they have faced CHI & CHA – two good interior defensive teams! For this contest, they will face a Blazers’ team that is coming from a tough OT loss @HOU. POR’s head coach doesn’t trust in his bench and only Mo Williams received decent minutes in that game as 3 POR’ starters logged +40min! This can be a huge problem for POR tonight because MEM’s second unit can really change the dynamic of the game in their favor. POR has only Robin Lopez & LMA on the frontcourt (+ Thomas Robinson coming off the bench) and I expect MEM to just pound them down low. POR’ offense will need some sharp outside shooting for tonight but MEM’s defense has been improving pretty fast w/ Marc Gasol, Conley and Tony Allen being healthy. POR has committed 20, 16, 19 & 21 TO’s in L4 games and this can problematic vs. MEM defense that has Conley, Lee & Allen playing considerable minutes. I expect MEM to defeat the Blazers with some ease tonight because they are really a bad matchup for POR while their spot is better as well! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 556 Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 02/05: Portland Trail Blazers @ New York Knicks

Portland  at New York

NBA - 707 Portland Trail Blazers @ 708 New York Knicks Play #3 POR is struggling a bit right now w/ 1-3 SU in the last 4 games and the main culprit IMO for this bad run is related w/ the lack of production of their offense. In those 3 losses, POR had a subpar avg. Off. Rtg. = 92.3 vs. 113.8 of their season average. They need L. Aldridge to be effective down low, and especially, they need their Pick n Roll game to be sharp and this has been a problem for them lately. However, these struggles are easy to understand IMO, as POR simply has faced some elite defensive teams vs. Pick n Roll's and obviously it's tougher to have great offensive numbers. Defensive P&R Ball Handler rankings of POR’s L4 opponents: GSW #8 MEM #25 (but w/ Gasol back, they are “another” team) TOR #3 WAS #2 So, what about the Knicks’ P&R defense? You might ask… Well, they are dead last in the league by allowing 0.89 PPP, and they are coming from a game in which Brandon Knight completely torched them w/ 25 points & 7 assists, enough said... We can expect D. Lillard and POR’s backcourt to completely torch NYK’s backcourt unit of Felton, Prigioni, JR Smith and Tim Hardaway JR.  Obviously, NYK will have some edge on the offensive end vs. POR poor defense but I expect Batum to be a tough matchup for Carmelo Anthony, while NYK’s on and off the court problems have been another distraction for the team: Amare Stoudemire wants to play more minutes & Mike Woodson’s firing saga is returning to action… I’m taking POR tonight as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Portland Trail Blazers (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/04: Philadelphia 76ers @ Portland Trail Blazers

Philadelphia  at Portland

NBA - 515 Philadelphia 76ers @ 516 Portland Trail Blazers Play #6 PHI has been healthy lately and their aggressive offensive style has been pretty efficient in the L3 games as they have scored 111, 114 and 113 points. I went w/ OVER in their last game @SAC and despite losing the play, the 76ers did their part by scoring 113 points and posting almost 115 Off. Rtg. They are focused in attacking the rim and pushing the pace to score in transition: L7 games they averaged 17.9 fast break points per game & 54.6 points in the paint. The good news for them tonight is that the Blazers have the worst paint defense in the league allowing 48.9 points in the paint per game. Also, POR transition defense lately has been subpar by allowing 16, 17, 20, 13 and 19 fast break points in L5 games, so in a run and gun game, I expect PHI offense to keep rolling… We can say the same thing for the Blazers offense that is coming from a 134-points explosion in their last game vs. CHA. PHI defense is awful all around but especially on the perimeter. Luckily for them, in L2 games they allowed only 5-25 & 7-23 3pts but note that they have faced DEN & SAC that are ranked #19 & #23 in 3pts shooting…the Blazers are just the best team in the league from behind the line and they are coming from a 21-33 3pts performance! In the first h2h, the Blazers just torched PHI bad perimeter defense w/ 21-37 3pts while scoring 139 points! PHI was able to score well in the first half before fading away in the 2nd half (they scored 41 points) but note that they were playing @b2b nights and MCW was OUT due to an injury! My fair line for this contest is 226/228 points so despite this “high” totals line, I really think we have some edge w/ the Over! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 223.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/26: Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trailblazers

LA Clippers  at Portland

NBA - 507 Los Angeles Clippers @ 508 Portland Trailblazers Play #3 I know that the Clippers will play a back to back game, so tiredness might be a factor in here. However, considering how they lost yesterday's game at Golden State with Blake Griffin being unfairly ejected early in the fourth quarter, I believe the LA team will be fired up for tonight with the bounce back mindset easily overcoming the tired spot. I have no problems in admitting that the Clippers would have won last night's game without Blake's ejection, making me lose the play I had on the Warriors. The Clippers are a bad match up for the Blazers. I understand that the Blazers have playing great and their offensive strength with LaMarcus Aldridge and their outside shooters is terrific! However, the bad news for Portland is that the Clippers are the best 3pts defense in the league with just 32.4% 3pts allowed! The Clippers' individual defense at the PG position is possible the best in the league with Chris Paul and Darren Collison and so, no wonder that the LA team is #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense. Therefore, Damian Lillard won't have an easy task against Chris Paul and with that, Portland's perimeter shooting should struggle on this match up. Of course the key match up in here will be between Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge, but both players are in great form right now and so, I expect both to play well tonight. I believe that the team that will generate more easy points down low will have a bigger chance to win this game, as both teams are excellent on 3pts defense. In that way, the Clippers are #11 on defending the paint, while Portland is just #22! Portland has been super clutch at home this season. They won their home games against Indiana, Oklahoma City, Houston and against New Orleans on their last game, but all those games were ballgames where Portland won the game just on the last possessions of the game. I believe that the Blazers might repeat that tonight, but that will give us an excellent spot to take the Clippers plus the points tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Los Angeles Clippers (+4,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 12/17: Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Portland  at Cleveland

NBA - 501 Portland Trail Blazers @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers ***Free Premium Play*** Portland will play tonight their third game of the road trip and they are 2-0 so far w/ blowout win @PHI, and a terrific comeback win @DET w/ after a strong 26-15 4th quarter score and Damian Lillard’s clutch shot in the Overtime. All their 5 starters logged at least 40 minutes of action so a physical letdown could happen tonight @CLE. I had the OVER in that game @DET and I was expecting DET’s frontcourt to dominate the poor interior defense of the Blazers and indeed they did: POR ended the game w/ 68 points in the paint while 65% of their shots were near the basket. One of the key factors for this improved play from the Cavaliers lately has been their frontcourt, led by Andrew Bynum. Note that CLE was averaging 33.8 points in the paint/game in the first 17 games of the season but in the L6 games = 44.3 ppg! I expect CLE frontline to have a nice offensive edge vs. the Blazers in this area. Even though Lillard is playing better defense this season, he is still a subpar individual defensive player – the Blazers defense is ranked just #20 defending Pick n Rolls Ball Handler plays for some reason! The bad news for them is that Kyrie Irving is playing his best basketball of the season right now – he’s been named the Eastern Conference of the week and in the L3 games he scored 37, 31 and 19 points w/ nice 19/6 A/TO ratio! I also expect Cleveland to have a nice offensive edge in Irving vs. Lillard and/or Mo Williams. Obviously, the Blazers offense will have some key edges as well mainly w/ Aldridge shooting from the outside vs. slow footed CLE frontcourt. Cleveland is yet to be consistent in-game as Mike Brown is still looking for the best rotation but I think that the Cavaliers will be extremely competitive tonight and the Blazers should have been favored by just one ball possession, therefore I’m taking the Cavaliers tonight as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Cleveland Cavaliers (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 12/15: Portland Trail Blazers @ Detroit Pistons

Portland  at Detroit

NBA - 805 Portland Trail Blazers @ 806 Detroit Pistons Play #4 This will be a fun game to watch between two teams with completely different styles but with the matchup favoring both offenses. The Blazers are playing an incredible fluid offensive basketball right now. They are the best 3pts shooting team in the league w/ 41.9%, and last night they torched the 76ers w/ 21-37 3pts & 41 assists – that’s what happened when the Blazers is playing against poor perimeter defensive teams and guess what… the Pistons are a terrible perimeter defensive team: ranked #26 defending 3pts% w/ 37.8%. This isn’t a surprise at all if we take in account that their frontcourt of Smith + Monroe + Drummond is so big and slow to rotate, so their opponents are torching them from the outside. However, on the other side, the Pistons huge frontcourt will just pound the Blazers poor interior defense that is ranked #26 allowing 45.8 points in the paint per game. The 76ers scored 52 pts paint last night and I expect DET to score +50 pts paint as well today. In the first h2h game of this series, I went w/ OVER for an easy winner as the game ended w/ 212 points w/ DET scoring 60 points in the paint & POR hitting 11 treys. I expect a similar outcome for today and therefore I’m taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Over 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA 12/14 Free Premium Play: Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers

Portland  at Philadelphia

NBA - 509 Portland Trail Blazers @ 510 Philadelphia 76ers Play #3 I have a small lean on the 76ers tonight (full game) but because this is a bad spot for them (b2b w/ 3 games in 4 nights) I rather prefer playing them in the first half as the most likely scenario is the Blazers having a strong 2nd half. First of all, despite being “rested”, I don’t like the spot that the Blazers is going for this contest. This is the first game of their road trip, so they made a huge trip POR -> PHI, also, they are coming from a huge effort last game against the Rockets at home! Against the lowly 76ers, I don’t expect the Blazers to be 100% focused, especially early on the game. The 76ers are struggling to hit their outside shots due to their evident lack of talent, but they can be a dangerous offensive team in transition & attacking the rim. The Blazers have been a poor interior defensive team all season; they are ranked #26 in points in the paint allowed w/ 45.6 ppg so the 76ers will have a good matchup in this particular area. Also, the potential laziness of the Blazers defense will be noticed on transition (lack) defense. The 76ers defense is allowing almost 70% FG at the rim L10 games but the Blazers are mainly a jump shooting team so they won’t totally explore PHI’s biggest weakness early on the game. Eventually they will adjust @ half time and also take advantage of the tired legs of PHI players but again, I’m taking the 76ers just to be competitive in the first half! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Philadelphia 76ers (+6.5) FIRST HALF @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/12: Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Houston  at Portland

NBA - 503 Houston Rockets @ 504 Portland Trail Blazers Play #2 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** The public just love the Over in this contest and the total line jumped @215.5 points. My fair line is 208/210 points so now we have the proper edge to make a big play w/ the UNDER. These two teams are great offensive teams but I think that defense will be a key factor for tonight due to the way the matchups will work. After being humiliated @Utah by losing & allowing 109 points to the lowly Jazz, the Rockets have now 3 solid consecutive great defensive games w/ Def. Rtg of 101.7, 84.0 and 94.2. In this stretch, note that the great Warriors offense was held to just 83 points! Houston defensive rebounding ranking in the league is a subpar #19 w/ 74.1% Defensive Rebounding% but lately they have been great in not allowing offensive boards to their opponents, L5 games = 81%! This is important because the Blazers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league (ranked #4 w/ 28.9%) and with the Rockets doing a solid job on the defensive glass, the Blazers won’t be able to score on second chances. POR in their L4 games grabbed 16, 17, 17 and 11 offensive boards but tonight they will have a tough task to get that many off. Reb. It might sound strange to say, but James Harden has looked better defensively lately. GSW offensive strategy was to explore Harden’s bad defense but he answered pretty well in that game, it was one of the biggest reasons why GSW struggled so badly offensively in that game. The perception is that the Rockets are a bad defensive team but I have them ranked #8 in defensive efficiency! On the other end, the Blazers defense will have some problems to contain Dwight Howard but their primary defensive principle – defend the 3pts line (they are ranked #6 allowing just 33.8%) is built to face a team like the Rockets who are #1 in Three Pointers Attempted per Game w/ 27.6 mark. Note that after their great shooting display @SAS, the Rockets are shooting only 28% behind the line (34-120) so we have a nice defensive edge in this key area. In the first h2h, the Rockets won on the road in a game that ended w/ 217 points. Here some factors that explains such high scoring outcome that won’t happen tonight: 1) The Rockets were playing w/ Asik & Howard together on the front and with Jeremy Lin & Harden on the backcourt. The current starting lineup w/ Beverly and Jones filling Asik & Lin makes the Rockets a better defensive team when compared vs. early on the season; 2) Robin Lopez battled foul trouble (played only 18 minutes) and his primary backup was Meyers Leonard! Obviously it was a field day for Howard (10-13 FG, 9-12 FT) as it was too easy to score near the basket. I have HOU w/ 27-41 FG near the basket in that game! Lopez is playing some solid basketball and Leonard was so bad defensively that he is out of the rotation right now! I'm taking the UNDER in here as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 215.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/23: Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors

Portland  at Golden State

NBA - 719 Portland Trailblazers @ 720 Golden State Warriors Plays #8 & 9 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** The Warriors are struggling due to their lack of depth and Mark Jackson isn't helping his team by not trusting his bench at all. Thanks to that, the Warriors' starters are being forced to play a lot of minutes and last night at LA against the Lakers on an uptempo game, three of the Warriors' starters played 40 or more minutes and they weren't four playing a lot because Andre Iguodala got injured mid-game. Their fatigue was notorious on their inability to score near the basket with 18-37 (48.6%) FG against a poor Lakers interior defense Golden State will play their third game in four days, with this game being also a back to back game for them! On the other hand, Portland isn't also on a good spot. They had a poor spot last night on their first home game after a road trip and Chicago gave them a good fight. However, the Blazers managed to get a comeback win due to their starting lineup where every player was on the court for at least 35 minutes. We are then in front of two jump shooting teams tonight with heavy legs right now, a clear problem for both offenses! However, I believe the Warriors are on an even worse position for tonight, as Portland has more options on the bench and their defense is programmed to defend 3pts shots. In fact, the Blazers led the league in 3pts defense with just 29.5% 3pts allowed! Therefore, I expect this game to be a low scoring 50/50 one and so, I'll be taking Portland on a Single Dime Play and the Under on a Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 Portland Trailblazers (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Portland Trailblazers NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	91.4	18
Offense	105.8	15
Defense	109.2	26
Rebound	49.9	18

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	49.8	14	eFG%	51.2	26
TO%	13.9	16	TO%	12.5	27
Reb%	25.3	23	Reb%	26.7	20
FT%	19.4	22	FT%	18.9	6

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	6-10	105.0	110.5
December	9-4	107.4	106.1
January	8-8	106.6	108.1
February	3-9	106.6	115.5
March	7-9	113.5	113.4
April	0-9	101.4	118.1

It wasn’t supposed for Portland to have a 20-15 record after 35 games played in last year’s regular season, something they managed to do after a huge home win against the reigning champions Miami Heat by 92-90 on January 10.

The team was supposedly on a full rebuilding mode after the disaster that they were in the previous season, where Portland went from potential outsiders on the West to the conference’s biggest disappointment. Mostly thanks to that, Coach Nate McMillan was fired even before the season ended and several of the Blazers’ “top” players were gone: Gerald Wallace, Marcus Camby, Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford (and Greg Oden).

Apparently, GM Neil Olshey was aware of this rebuilding process and he didn’t make a huge effort to improve the team. He decided to keep his cap salary in check instead and look more into the team’s future than into the its present. So, they drafted the PG Damian Lillard.

However, a team led by a rookie PG not only surprised the league, as even their own GM! Portland had virtually no depth on its roster, but their starters formed a pretty decent unit that was competitive against everybody! Over their first 20 wins of the seasons, Portland defeated teams like the Lakers, Houston (twice), Chicago, San Antonio, Denver, the NY Knicks, Memphis and Miami!

Lillard’s rookie season was especially great because of the composure that he showed all season long. In general, rookies have problems in adapting to the NBA due to the game speed, the tough schedule with a lot of travelling and of course, too many games for them! In Lillard’s particular case, we had a rookie who averaged almost 40 minutes/game (38.6)! Obviously, he was #1 on rookie minutes/game last season and the #2 on that list, Bradley Beal, played less 7.5 minutes/game than Lillard! Besides that, Lillard also played all 82 games of the season! Wow!

Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge carried the offense for the Blazers. They were basically a jump shooting team that ran plenty of pick and rolls sets, while 51.3% of their shots came from +16 feet or further!

Portland’s main problem was indeed an awful defense all season long. As good as Lillard is on offense, he struggled mightily on defense, something that isn’t big news as if Lillard was putting the same effort on defense that he was putting on offense, we would be in presence of a superman! Portland also used J.J. Hickson as their starting center and not only Hickson isn’t a natural fit for that position, as he isn’t a good defensive player also.

Any team that struggles defensively in these two positions (Center + Point Guard) is vulnerable and their opponents took advantage of that. Portland was the #5 worst defensive team in the league last season and it all started with their inability to prevent teams to score easily against them: they were the worst paint defense in the league with 47.4 points in the paint allowed per game.

To make matters even worse for them, Portland had by far the worst bench unit in the league, something that became a problem once fatigue became a real factor. Their starting lineup Hickson-Aldridge-Batum-Matthews-Lillard played 1143 minutes together, while their second most used lineup (Hickson-Aldridge-Claver-Batum-Lillard) played together for just 142 minutes of action.

Finally, when Portland saw that they didn’t have chances to reach the playoffs, the organization decided to manage the minutes of their starters, giving more opportunities to their backups. The result of that was the team losing their last 13 games of the season.

Offseason Report:

Neil Olshey saw with his own eyes how good his starting lineup was last season, while their bench was awfully terrible, so the offseason’s main objective was to give the team more depth.

The only player that could be easily replaced on the starting lineup last season was J.J. Hickson, who had an expiring contract. He would never be the team’s long-term solution for the Center position and so, Portland didn’t make a real push to re-sign him.

Olshey basically brought a new player for every position of the team:

In the backcourt, Portland drafted C.J. McCollum, who might become one of the surprises of this draft. He has already a solid offensive game and he can play at both SG and PG positions. Portland also acquired veterans Mo Williams and Earl Watson. For some reason, Dorell Wright was in Doug Collins’s doghouse several times in Philadelphia. He was underrated and Portland took advantage of that to sign him on a 6M 2-year contract.

For the frontcourt, Portland signed the enigmatic Thomas Robinson, who had a weird rookie season in Houston and Sacramento. For the center spot, the Blazers were involved in a 3-team trade and grabbed Robin Lopez, who is a typical center unlike Hickson.

NBA Free Premium Play 04/14: Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets

Portland  at Denver

NBA - 709 Portland Trailblazers @ 710 Denver Nuggets Projected Line: Denver by 17 points We have a huge mismatch in here in both ends of the floor favoring the Nuggets. Portland is currently without their two best wing defenders in Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, something that is a disaster for them if we add the fact that Portland's interior defense is also very poor. This allows their opponents to pound them down low and this is why exactly what the Nuggets's offense does best, as they are #1 in the league in points in the paint per game! So, it isn't a surprise that Portland allowed an average of 54 points in the paint over their last 10 games! The Blazers have been losing their games against top teams recently, with all those games being at home, where they are more competitive. On this road game at Denver, it will be very hard for the Blazers to remain competitive, as the Blazers have no depth to compete against the high power motor of the Nuggets. Portland's transition defense has been ridiculously bad lately with 1.31 PPP allowed on their last 10 games, so I expect Denver to pound them today. The Nuggets are coming from a tough overtime loss at Dallas and they are fighting to secure the #3 seed in the West, so I expect them to have a blowout win today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Denver Nuggets (-14) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/12: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers

NBA - 725 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 726 Portland Trailblazers

Projected Line: 210 points

I like the spot of tonight's game to be a very high scoring game, especially with Kendrick Perkins not playing. Oklahoma City is coming from a great road win at Golden State last night and their usual approach to a game that follows a big game is to relax. I expect that to happen tonight, especially with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook matching up with Victor Claver and Damian Lillard respectively. Since they got eliminated from playoff contention, the Blazers have refused to defend. They allowed 1.34 PPP on transition plays over their last 10 games and they are now playing on a wild all-offense style, while showcasing a poor interior defense as well.

Portland was never a top defensive team this season, but since Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum got injured, things got completely out of control. On this game against the Thunder on a relax spot for them, I expect Oklahoma City to simply try to outscore the Blazers tonight via offense, while showing little effort on defense. This will consequently turn into a very open game, with both teams having good efficiency on offense and no effort on defense, something that will make this game be a super high scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725/726 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 519 Portland Trailblazers @ 520 Golden State Warriors

Projected Line: 199 points

Portland basically threw away their last chances of reaching the Playoffs last night. It's not like they had a lot of chances due to their very tough schedule for the rest of the season, but I believe last night's home loss against Utah was their final blow. They gave it all with their starters playing at least 32 minutes each, but they couldn't compensate LaMarcus Aldridge's absence and they lost the game. They will now play at Golden State, who is coming from a home loss against Sacramento. I believe the Warriors completely overlooked the Kings after having defeated the Lakers at home two days before. For tonight's game, I believe Golden State will refocus and play at a much higher level.

We are in front of two jump shooting teams. Portland doesn't have big weapons down low without LaMarcus Aldridge, while Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack lead the Warriors's offense. The problem is that these two teams have been elite defensive teams on 3pts defense throughout the whole season. Portland is #3 in the league with 33.6% 3pts allowed and Golden State is #5 with 34.1% 3pts allowed. They have been quite well on this area recently as well, as Portland is still #3 in the league on 3pts allowed over their last 10 games with 30.1% 3pts allowed, while Golden State is #5 with 31.6% 3pts allowing during the same span of games. It's important to note that we aren't in front of two overall elite defensive teams, as both teams struggle near the basket on defense.

However, both teams won't see their poor interior defense being exposed tonight. Portland is on a back to back spot and they will be playing without LaMarcus Aldridge once again tonight, so they aren't on a good spot to pound Golden State dow low, while the Warriors's offense has been very inconsistent lately and I believe they will struggle tonight against Portland's underrated perimeter defense tonight. Therefore, I see this game being a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/27: Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trailblazers

NBA - 777 Brooklyn Nets @ 778 Portland Trailblazers

Projected Line: pk line

This isn't a good spot at all for Portland, who is returning home from a road trip and they have been especially terrible on this spot this season by going 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU on their first home game against a road trip of at least 3 games: 90-103 vs LAC; 80-99 vs SAC; 125-119 (OT) vs ORL; 98-102 vs PHX; 97-102 vs MEM. But it's not only the spot that is poor for the Blazers tonight, as the Nets offer them a tough overall matchup as well. Brooklyn is the right team to make Portland struggle on the two positions where they've been struggling on defense all season long: Center + Point Guard! Brook Lopez will crush Portland down low, as the Blazers's interior defense is poor and so, no wonder that they are #27 on post up defense with 0.88 PPP allowed this season and 0.91 PPP allowed on their last 10 games. Then, Deron Williams will outplay the rookie Damian Lillard, who is still very raw on defense and has no size to stop Deron's dribble penetrations. 

Besides that, Brooklyn will also have a nice rebounding edge tonight due to their bigger size and frontcourt depth. Reggie Evans will also physically punish LaMarcus Aldridge tonight, who has been struggling physically for a while now. Portland's offense depends a lot from their outside shooting nowadays and the only positive factor coming from Joe Johnson's absence is that Brooklyn is starting Keith Bogans at the SG position, who is a very nice defender. In fact, Brooklyn's perimeter defensive has been having nice numbers lately with 37% FG allowed from 16-23 feet and 30% 3pts defense (#2 on the league) on their last 10 games. With the Nets having matchup edges on the PG and Center positions, a rebounding edge, a better bench and with LaMarcus Aldridge struggling physically, I expect Brooklyn to pick up the win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 777 Brooklyn Nets (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/22: Portland Trailblazers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 809 Portland Trailblazers @ 810 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: 204 points

Atlanta has been using lately a fast and athletic starting lineup with Al Horford, Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague. This lineup turns Atlanta into an excellent transition team, with also a great ability to shoot at the rim with easy dunks and layups. This is why they have scored 28, 11, 29, 22, 21 and 28 fast break points on their last six games, for an average of 23.1 points per game! They are also shooting 72% FG at the rim since the All Star break! They will face the Blazers tonight, who will be on a terrible physical spot. Portland's transition defense has been poor lately and they have allowed 26, 23, 14 and 22 fast break points on their last four games. They allowed 22 fast break points to the Bulls last night and that says a lot about their transition defense right now. 

The Hawks's gameplan for tonight will certainly be to set a fast pace in tonight's game to take advantage of their spot edge and also their edge on transitions and at the rim. So, the key in here will be what Portland's offense will be able to do tonight. And I believe they will be fine. LaMarcus Aldrdige will have a decent edge over Atlanta's poor post up defense, while the Hawks's perimeter defense has been poor since the All Star break with 41% FG allowed from 16-23 feet and 38% 3pts! Therefore, I expect this contest to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/21: Portland Trailblazers @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 701 Portland Trailblazers @ 702 Chicago Bulls

Projected Line: 184 points

***UPGRADED INTO A DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

NOTE: We just got enough edge to make it a Double Dime Play, with the line moving from 188 to 189,5 points!

Both teams are coming from a big effort on their last game, even though Chicago had 2 days off to rest prior to this contest. However, it's still not an easy spot for the Bulls tonight, as they played an overtime game against Denver, with two starters playing for more than 50 minutes on that game! On the other hand, Portland is playing their third game in four nights and on their last two games at Philadelphia and at Milwaukee, four of their starters played for over 40 minutes in both contests. With both teams coming from games where they've showed a lot of effort and due to their lack of depth on their rosters, I expect a low scoring game to happen tonight. One thing is having a team like Denver with depth on this kind of spot and another completely different thing is having teams like Chicago and Portland on this kind of spots, where they just can't be effective on offense.

Chicago's main defensive weakness is on transitions and they have been buried in several games this season because of that. However, Portland isn't the kind of team who will be able to take advantage of this defensive weakness from the Bulls, as the Blazers are just #26 in the league in fast break points per game with 9.8 points! Besides that, Portland has little volume on transition plays and they aren't effective on them as well by being #19 in the league with 1.11 PPP (Points Per Possession)! Therefore, I'm not seeing Portland wanting to run with the basketball tonight, as their starters wouldn't have legs in the second half due to their poor spot. The Blazers have a perimeter oriented offense and they are #5 in the league on 3pts volume of shots with 30% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. The good news for them is that Portland is shooting well the ball from long range since the All Star break by being #6 in the league with 40.6% 3pts, while they have been even better on their last 10 games with 42.3% 3pts! However, Portland benefit from facing teams who are currently struggling on their perimeter defense. From their last seven opponents, San Antonio is #24 in the league since the All Star break on 3pts allowed with 39.6%, while New Orleans (#29 with 42.5% 3pts allowed), the NY Knicks (#25 with 39.9% 3pts allowed), Detroit (#30 with 43.0% allowed), Philadelphia (#19 with 37.9% allowed) and Milwaukee (#18 with 37.7% allowed) are also struggling on their perimeter defense right now. Memphis (#4 in the league with 31.9% 3pts allowed) was the only elite perimeter defense that they've faced lately and even though Portland scored 97 points against the Grizzlies, this was due to a bizarre 4th quarter where the Blazers scored 39 points, mostly thanks to the last minutes of the game that had several free throws. The truth is that the Blazers scored just 58 points on the first three quarters of that game, while shooting just 5-16 (31.3%) 3pts for the whole game. I expect Portland to struggle on their outside shooting tonight as well, as Chicago is #2 in the league in 3pts defense since the All Star break with 30.1% 3pts allowed! With the Bulls stopping Portland's perimeter game, it's up to LaMarcus Aldridge having a big game to compensate that, but not only he is currently banged up with a knee injury, as he will have a tough matchup as the Bulls are #3 in the league on post up defense with 0.77 PPP allowed.

On the other side, Chicago's offense has some volume on pick and rolls, but without great efficiency, as they really miss Derrick Rose on this game. Damian Lillard is a poor defender, but Chicago won't be able to fully explore that, as they really don't have offensive talent for that. The Bulls will have some edge on post ups with Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, however I expect the Bulls to have an average overall offensive performance on this contest, something normal for them. Portland is #3 in the league since the All Star break on 3pts defense with 31.4% allowed and with the Bulls having little talent on offense, a likely poor outside shooting game and on a poor physical spot, I expect them to struggle offensively tonight. The Blazers's defense has been struggling against quick guards, as recently shown by Rodney Stuckey (11-23 FG and 32 points) and Monta Ellis/Brandon Jennings (combined of 17-38 FG and 45 points), but Chicago doesn't have them. 

With both teams struggling on offense and with this game being a slow paced contest (as neither team likes to push up the tempo or is in a good physical spot to do it), I expect this contest to naturally become a low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here. DOUBLE DIME PLAY!

Pick: 3 units on 701/702 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 1 units on 701/702 Under 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes