NBA - 509 Denver Nuggets @ 510 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected line: 195 pointsDenver is coming from a home
loss against Utah, where they clearly failed offensively, with 3-9 FG
from 16-23 feet and 6-16 3pts on the outside, with a bad interior game
with 20-39 FG at the rim and with a bad FT% as well with just 26-39 FT!
So, the question in here is to know if Milwaukee has the ability of
slowing down Denver tonight. The Bucks have been committing some
turnovers and yesterday they lost the TO battle with PHI (9 vs 16) and
this was one of the reasons for their loss. I expect them to be more
focused tonight, as coach Scott Skiles is very exigent with the team in
how they treat the ball. The curious fact about Milwaukee is that the
team has been playing on a slower pace as the games go by, with an
average pace of 87.9 on their last 5 games (vs 90.7 season pace) and the
number of fast break points allowed has been decreasing thanks to that
as well (9.8 FB/game L5 games vs 12.1 FB/game on the season).
So, the key in here will be how the Nuggets inside game will perform
tonight. Milwaukee with Bogut has an excellent rim defense and
yesterday, the Sixers shot just 11-23 FG at the rim! The Bucks with
Bogut playing have allowed 60% FG at the rim (vs 64% FG at the rim
allowed in games where Bogut hasn't played). Milwaukee has also been
playing well on defending fast break points, so I believe Denver's
offense will struggle a bit tonight!
On the other side, this will be a back to back game for Milwaukee
and their outside game has been super inconsistent! Their rim offense
has been very well, but just due to Bogut! Denver has depth on the
frontcourt and they should be able with their team help defense to stop
the Bucks' only rim offense threat!
I believe this game both teams will at least partially stop their
opponents offense from working, with Milwaukee being able to stop
Denver's transitions and rim offense, while Denver should be able to
prevent Bogut from having a huge offensive game. Therefore, I came up
with a projection line of 195 points, low enough for me to take the
under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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