NBA Free Premium Play 03/23: Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Phoenix  at Minnesota

NBA - 703 Phoenix Suns @ 704 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #2 I really expect this contest to be a classic shootout w/ +220 points scored. The Wolves are playing w/ some great offensive flow as of late… Ricky Rubio has been more aggressive on the offensive end w/ success while rookie G. Dieng can run the floor pretty well which is good news for MIN’s great transition game. For this contest, MIN has a favorable matchup vs. PHX’s undersized frontcourt. Kevin Love torched the Suns in the last H2H w/ 10-22 FG, 3-6 3pts & 10-14 FT’s for 33 points and for today, I expect the Wolves to dominate the glass w/ Kevin Love having a great edge on his individual matchup. PHX’s is coming from b2b “good” defensive performances vs. ORL & DET but I really don’t think it was a considerable improvement from them. Note that they have faced a lowly ORL team playing @b2b spot without Nelson and w/ Vucevic being ejected and playing only 9minutes…obviously, the Magic didn’t have any chance in the 2nd half and PHX held them to just 41 pts!  In the last game vs. DET, PHX was completely outrebounded (had just 40% reb/rate) but they benefited from the fact that DET couldn’t hit outside shots (something normal for them) w/ 4-16 3pts and especially, DET was miserable from the line w/ 10-26 FT’s (38.5% mark!!!). On the other side, MIN had tremendous problems to stop opp. guards of attacking them off the dribble and convert @the rim. DAL & DEN combined to score 51 fast break pts & 118 points in the paint against them!! Yep, PHX have Dragic & Bledsoe ready to punish them today… W/ this contest being a run and gun game and with both teams having some considerable edges @offense, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 218 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/05 : Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

Phoenix  at Houston

NBA - 715 Phoenix Suns @ 716 Houston Rockets Play #5 PHX played horribly last night vs. CHI as their A/TO ratios have been truly horrible as of late: last night 12 assists vs. 21 TO’s but even in their easy win vs. CHA in the previous game, they had a subpar 13/13 A/TO ratio. This spot of b2b game isn’t easy for them but what really matters is that HOU is a horrible matchup for PHX! PHX offense really needs to be efficient in both P&R BH plays (w/ Dragic) and in transition! The problem is that HOU defense is ranked #6 defending P&R BH plays & #1 defending transition. HOU had 3 days off to rest and prepare this contest and they won’t take lightly this good Suns team because early on the season, PHX went @HOU and beat them outright w/ 97-88! In that game, Eric Bledsoe was the MVP of the game by playing 40minutes and having 7-14 FG, 20 pts and 7 assists but especially, he guarded J. Harden that had his worst offensive game of the season w/ 3-17 FG & 5 TO’s! Also that Jeremy Lin & C. Parsons didn’t play that game and so, tonight’s game will be another completely story favoring the Rockets in every aspect of the game. Howard will dominate down low, while this time, HOU backcourt will dominate PHX’s backcourt unit. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Houston Rockets (-7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Plays 01/30: Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers

Phoenix  at Indiana

NBA - 501 Phoenix Suns @ 502 Indiana Pacers Play #1 & #2 Well, with Indiana playing at home, rested and w/ revenge mindset going for this contest against a team that will play their final game of the current road trip & being 4th game in 5 days, I just want to say: good luck PHX! In the first h2h, PHX completely crushed the Pacers in a shootout - The 124 points were the most they allowed under coach Frank Vogel, while the Suns shot 54.2 percent -- including 11 of 16 from 3-point range -- in their second-best performance of the season. While the way the Suns defeated the Pacers was a surprise for me, I really expected the contest to be a high scoring affair and that’s why I had my GOW Triple Dime Play w/ Over 196 in that game! Going for that game, IND had defeated LAC & GSW in the 2 previous contests while showing some sharp offense. It was clear for me that they would try to beat the Suns on their own game and the outcome was simply disastrous as the best transition defensive team in the league allowed a season high 28 fast break points to PHX and the best 3pts defense in the league allowed PHX to hit 11-16 3pts! For tonight, I expect IND to change their approach as they will slow down a bit the tempo of the game and impose their superior size on the frontcourt to crush PHX’s undersized frontline. In that game, IND has shot 9-15 FG at the rim vs. 9-20 FG from 16-23feet & 5-15 3pts…it says a lot of IND’s mindset in that game, so for tonight, I expect them to “pound down”. PHX offense has been great lately (I cashed w/ OVER in their game @MIL last night) but they are a bit overrated because they have faced some favorable matchups: MIL, PHI & CLE – all poor defensive teams. Not only this is a tough physical spot for them but also Goran Dragic got injured last night and so, I don’t think he will be 100% fit for tonight’s contest. This is a statement game for IND and they will show tonight why they are the best defensive team in the league and therefore, I’m taking Indiana & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Indiana Pacers (-11.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 50/501 Under 199.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/11: Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons

Phoenix  at Detroit

NBA - 507 Phoenix Suns @ 508 Detroit Pistons Play #5 After struggling for 5 consecutive games in which DET couldn’t reach the century mark in points, DET offense had the perfect matchup last night vs. PHI, and indeed they took advantage of it by scoring 114 points. DET was able to complete dominate the offensive glass – they had 60% reb/rate% w/ the incredible number of 25 offensive rebounds! Against the undersized and shorthanded PHI interior defense, DET scored 50 points and they even scored 24 fast break points as well! Tonight’s game will be different…. First of all, PHX is ranked #1 in transition defense and so, I don’t expect the Pistons to have such big numbers in transition. I understand that PHX’s frontcourt is undersized & “soft” but they will pack the paint tonight knowing that DET struggles to score from the perimeter. They did exactly the same thing @MIN already in this week and it worked pretty well b/c Kevin Love & Pekovic struggled to score down low. Note that in L3 games, PHX rim defense has been spectacular by allowing their opponents to shot < 50% FG! On the other side, PHX is really missing E. Bledsoe… Their ball movement hasn’t been good, just look for their assists numbers L5 games: 18, 20, 12, 19 & 19 and obviously, with such problems in generating good outside looks, the Suns are struggling to hit their perimeter shots - L3 games = 6-23, 11-29 & 11-30. DET perimeter defense is subpar at best but they won’t be explored by PHX tonight. Finally, note that both teams have terrible physical spots going for tonight w/ 4th game in 5 night’s, so we can expect this contest to not bet a particularly good game to watch. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/22: Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Bobcats

Phoenix  at Charlotte

NBA - 501 Phoenix Suns @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats I took the Over on Charlotte's last game against Brooklyn, on a game where we had a push due to a super low scoring fourth quarter (12-21). The Bobcats without Al Jefferson burned the clock down the stretch, but their half court execution is so predictable that they couldn't score for three minutes in a row until Kemba Walker scored a couple of free throws with three seconds to go. As I predicted, the Bobcats had a mega edge in pick and rolls against the Nets' dreadful defense on this area, while Kemba Walker had his best game of the season so far with 12-20 FG and 31 points. Charlotte as a team shot 10-16 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and managed to score 52 points in the paint even without Al Jefferson! They didn't score more points due to their poor 18-30 FT and weak outside shooting numbers. Their defense continued excellent, but the Nets had a lot of demerit on their loss as 47.8% FG and 9-19 3pts should be good enough to win a game, but they lost because they were completely outrebounded by allowing 17 offensive rebounds to Charlotte, something weird given Brooklyn's size. The Nets also committed 19 turnovers and eventually lost the game. On the other side, Phoenix is coming from two losses in a row against Sacramento. During their current four-game losing streak, the Suns are committing an average of 15.75 turnovers per game, possibly because of Eric Bledsoe's absence. Phoenix's offense is similar to Charlotte's given the fact that both teams use their aggressive guards who attack primarily via pick and rolls, while the Suns are also a brutal transition team by being #1 in the league on this area with 23.3 fast break points per game. On tonight's matchup, it's important to check how both teams defend pick and rolls, as both offenses need badly to perform well on this area. Phoenix is #22 in the league on pick and roll defense, while allowing 0.79 PPP. On the other hand, Al Jefferson will be back tonight and this will weaken the Bobcats' defense due to his lack of foot speed and mobility. Charlotte is #8 in the league on pick and roll defense, but they are regressing on transition defense and they are already #24 in the league while allowing 1.19 PPP! Charlotte has been facing slow paced teams lately (Boston #15 in pace factor, Cleveland #20, Miami #17, Chicago #19 and Brooklyn #22), but Phoenix is #12 in the league on pace factor. Therefore, I believe this game will be a relatively fast paced game with both offenses playing well and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Phoenix Suns NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

PHOENIX SUNS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	93.4	9
Offense	101.2	29
Defense	108.1	23
Rebound	49.8	19

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	47.7	23	eFG%	51.2	25
TO%	14.3	26	TO%	14.2	11
Reb%	27.0	14	Reb%	28.1	26
FT%	17.4	27	FT%	20.8	18

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	7-10	105.3	110.2
December	4-11	106.4	111.3
January	5-9	99.4	104.7
February	4-9	97.8	110.1
March	3-12	99.9	112.2
April	2-6	106.1	113.9

There’s a reason why Steve Nash won the MVP award twice while in Phoenix and that’s his ability to involve his teammates in the game like nobody else. Even with mediocre teammates around him on his last two seasons with the Suns, Nash was still able to lead the Suns into being a top 10 offense in the league in both years. Last season was Phoenix’s first year of the post-Nash era and they were the second last offensive team in the league.

Defensively, the Suns continued to be an awful defensive team like they were in the previous seasons. Not only they were the worst 3pts defense in the league by allowing 38.8% 3pts, as they were also the third worst defensive team at the paint by allowing 45.6 points in the paint per game.

Offensively the Suns were able to be even worse and only the Wizards were worse on offense last season. In three consecutive months (January to March), the Suns couldn’t even beat the 100 points scored per 100 possessions mark!

The perfect image of the Suns’ last season was Michael Beasley playing 23 minutes per game during the first half of the season, even though he shot 40% FG and showed zero effort on defense!

Eventually, Alvin Gentry left the team after a 13-28 record, being replaced by Lindsey Hunter, who didn’t improve the team’s performances. Phoenix’s roster last season gave no margin to Gentry to turn them into a competitive team. The organization has been a disaster in the draft over the last few seasons and that didn’t change last season with Kendall Marshall looking like another wasted draft pick. 

Offseason Report:

With so little talent on the team, the Suns had an aggressive attitude on the offseason with its goal being the signing of talented young players.

The team’s lack of aggressiveness was quite clear last season and the Suns want to correct that by signing Eric Bledsoe on a 3-team trade. The Suns also drafted Archie Goodwin, who might be one of the surprises of this draft class, as he has impressed the team’s new Head Coach Jeff Hornacek in the preseason.

The team’s frontcourt was also improved with the return of Channing Frye to the league after missing the previous season due a heart issue, while Alex Len was the team’s first choice on this draft (5^th pick overall).

NBA Premium Play 04/13: Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 507 Phoenix Suns @ 508 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Line: 205 points | Minnesota by 2 points

Minnesota will play tonight their fourth game in five nights, having played at Utah last night. In fact, their last three games were on the road, as they had previously played at Golden State and at LA against the Clippers. Even though this is a poor spot for the Wolves, I have to say that they rotated their roster well last night against the Jazz, if we exclude Greg Stiemsma, who played 41 minutes yesterday.

On the other side, Phoenix has a great chance to be competitive tonight, especially because Michael Beasley won't play. It's interesting to note that the Suns were very competitive on their last two games. They lost in the last second against Houston at home and then, they went to Dallas to beat the Mavericks by double digits points! This reveals a good mindset for them, as they are still fighting, even though they have been eliminated from playoff contention a long time ago.

The last word goes to Suns interim head coach Lindsey Hunter on breaking the 10-game losing streak at Dallas: “I think it was important for our guys to feel good. We played a really good game (Tuesday night at Houston). Unfortunately, we couldn’t win it. We lost it in a very peculiar way. I’ve never lost a game like that in my life so that was a first. But I think the guys responded really well in the back-to-back and they (the Mavericks) are a pretty good team out there fighting for a playoff spot possibly. Our guys responded and played well.”

Both teams are quite competent on offense in pick and roll ball handler plays and it's curious that both teams are exactly terrible in defending the same kind of play. Therefore, both Minnesota and Phoenix should have good offensive performances on offense on pick and rolls, with Ricky Rubio and Goran Dragic leading the way. Both the Wolves and the Suns have been also horrible on transition defense lately, so I expect both teams to score a nice amount of fast break points in here as well. I expect a high scoring game in here, so I'll be taking the Over on this contest. I also believe the Suns will continue being competitive on their games tonight against Minnesota, who is on a poor spot, therefore I'll be taking Phoenix in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Phoenix Suns (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/09: Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

Phoenix  at Houston

NBA - 661 Phoenix Suns @ 662 Houston Rockets Projected Line: 216 points Houston is back to their regular level on offense, after some struggles on a four-game span where they faced four top teams: San Antonio, Indiana, Memphis and the LA Clippers. The team has also benefited from James Harden's return, who has already played his team's last three games. On the other hand, the pace factor of the Rockets has increased again on their last five games: 95.06, 93.56, 97.54, 94.06 and 101.43! Their number of fast break points scored and points in the paint have also improved as well. When the Rockets are playing well on offense, these two areas are where they do the most damage and they have averaged 21.5 fast break points and 54 points in the paint in their last four games! The Rockets couldn't have asked for a better opponent tonight than the Suns's terrible defense. Phoenix has been also playing at a very fast pace, while showing absolutely no defense whatsoever. A good offensive team that likes to play fast and has a good transition offense like the Rockets can have huge offensive outcomes against them. This is why Sacramento scored 117 points against the Suns, while the LA Clippers scored 126 points and Golden State 111 points. The Suns's transition defense is non-existent and so, they are allowing 1.28 PPP (Points Per Possession) on transitions over their last 10 games! On the other side, Phoenix's offense may not be as consistent as their defense (in the bad sense of course), but Goran Dragic can definitely explore Houston's poor PG defense, while the Suns have decent athleticism to score a decent number of points tonight against a poor Rockets defense in a fast paced contest. Therefore, I expect this game to be a very high scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 661/662 Over 211.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns

NBA - 515 Indiana Pacers @ 516 Phoenix Suns

Projected Line: 196 points

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Indiana is coming from two nice wins on the road against top ranked offenses, in two games where they simply dominated both teams with their suffocating defense. On the other hand, the Pacers's offense was also decent on these two games with 100 and 103 points scored, while shooting well from the perimeter with 6-18 and 7-15 3pts! I believe Indiana is going to relax much more tonight on a game against the lowly Suns. Note that after today's game, Indiana will play against the LA Clippers and Oklahoma City, so it's normal that they will relax tonight and show a much lower defensive intensity than usual, especially when the Pacers's offense will have some huge edges over Phoenix's poor defense.

Now that David West is back, Indiana's frontcourt will crush the Suns's undersized frontcourt. Phoenix is now playing with Luis Scola and one of the Morris Brothers on the front and so, it isn't a surprise that they are allowing 72% FG at the rim! I expect Roy Hibbert and David West to have a field day. Of course, Phoenix will have to overhelp down low in order to protect the rim and they will leave Indiana's shooters alone on the outside. This has been Phoenix's biggest problem on defense this season and this is why they are dead last in the league with 39.5% 3pts allowed! Indiana's perimeter shooting has been streaky all season long, but they were decent on their last two games and so, they are carrying some rhythm on their shooting for tonight's game. Therefore, we will have Indiana's offense with nice edges in both inside and outside game tonight.

So, the main question in here is to know what Phoenix's offense will be able to do tonight. I've already referred that I don't think that Indiana will come to this game with a mindset of shutting down the Suns's offense tonight, as this is the easiest game of their six-game road trip and so, they will relax a bit tonight. Phoenix's offense has been been struggling due to their current lack of talent. However Coach Hunter is rotating their lineup a lot and so, they have always fresh players on the court throughout the whole game. Phoenix is playing on a fast pace lately and thanks to this new run and gun style, the Suns have score over 10 fast break points in all their last seven games, while averaging 16.9 fast break points per game during this span!

The key factor for tonight's game will be Goran Dragic. There has been a controversy due to the fact that Dragic didn't play the team's last two games even though he was healthy, on a decision made exclusively to make sure the Suns enter in tank mode. However, the rest of the Suns's roster showed solidarity with Dragic and the Slovene is probable to play tonight. We can expect a fresh Dragic to be ultra aggressive in tonight's game. The good news for him is that Indiana's defense is just "average" against pick and roll ball handler plays and this is where Dragic excels on his game, so this is a good opportunity for the Suns to have a decent offensive game against an elite defensive team. Considering all these factors, I expect this game to be a high scoring game and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/28: Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns

NBA - 805 Sacramento Kings @ 806 Phoenix Suns

Projected Line: Sacramento by 5 points

There is a big difference between these two lowly teams when it comes to competitiveness on this part of the season. Phoenix's tank job has already started on their last game at Utah yesterday, with the Suns not playing Goran Dragic even though he was healthy and ready to play. And it looks like this decision will be extended for today's game: 

Dragic, who leads the Suns with 14.4 points and 7.2 assists per game, was told Tuesday night that he would not play Wednesday but did not know if he was playing Thursday night. Suns interim coach Lindsey Hunter said Dragic would not play either night to rest him, provide opportunities for rookies Kendall Marshall and Diante Garrett and prepare Dragic for his summer with Slovenia in the European Championship.

“If you ask me personally, I would play,” Dragic said. “That's why they make the decision.

“I can play. I’m in great shape. There’s always pain and bruises but you can always play through that.”

Of the timing with a game at Utah, Hunter said, “That’s not my concern.”

“If you’ve seen him after games, you see how he looks like he’s been boxing,” Hunter said. “He’s been through a lot this year, little nicks and bruises, but he just fights through it so I think it’s good for him.

“We know we’re not making the playoffs and he’s logged a lot of minutes and played phenomenal for us. He’s going to have a long summer playing ball so he has a lot to do. We’re aware of that and his well-being. We don’t want him to totally be run down.”

And what about Sacramento? Well, they've just defeated Golden State on the road last night! Prior to that game, they almost defeated Denver on the road, something that shows that even though the Kings are a young team and they are unfocused at times, they are still trying to win games. Sacramento in healthy and their second unit is actually decent in comparison to the other lowly teams, as they have Patrick Patterson, Chuck Hayes, Marcus Thornton and Toney Douglas! We aren't talking about scrubs, while the same doesn't happen with Phoenix's poor bench. Without Dragic playing, Phoenix has a huge offensive problem. Rookie Kendall Marshall is having his opportunity to shine, but he is a very raw shooter. He is a good passes, but he is still far from being at NBA level, as he's shown yesterday with 5 turnovers. Therefore, we will have a clear edge for Sacramento at the PG position today with Isiah Thomas, who is coming from a game where he simply outplayed Stephen Curry!

Sacramento is continuing to shoot very well from long range and despite their questionable defensive effort tonight, I believe there is a considerable gap of talent between these two offenses, something that will result on a comfortable win for the Kings tonight. Phoenix's perimeter defense has been awful all season long and that will be the kiss of death for them against a red hot Sacramento. Therefore, I'll be taking the Kings in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Sacramento Kings (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/16: Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards

Phoenix  at Washington

NBA - 501 Phoenix Suns @ 502 Washington Wizards Projected Line: 192 points Phoenix's main ambition right now is rotate their players, give minutes to some scrub players to see if they have a future on the team or not. Also thanks to that, we are watching almost all their players showing a good effort in every game, as they know they are fighting a roster spot on the team for next season. However, that is only happening on offense, as their defense has been a complete mess. They are #26 in the league on spot up defense and #30 on off screens defense, on a clear sign that their perimeter defense is horrible. In fact, they have allowed 68-148 (46%) 3pts to their opponents on their last six games! Their interior isn't much better nowadays. Jermaine O'Neal is too slow to defend anybody and we are talking about the team's starting center. The Morris brothers are showing some hustle, but they are very raw in terms of defensive positioning and even on defensive IQ as well. So, their rim defense is regressing even more lately, the same happening with their cuts defense and offensive rebounds allowed. These are great news for the Wizards's offense, who is playing very well right now due to John Wall's excellent form. He is not only scoring a lot, as he is also taking good decisions. This is why Washington shot 8-9 FG on transitions yesterday for example. The Wizards are shooting very well from behind the arc and yesterday was no exception with 9-20 (45%) 3pts. In fact, over the last 10 games, Washington is #3 in the league with 40.8%! So, the Wizards will have a big edge today against Phoenix's poor perimeter defense, while also having a nice edge on transitions and of course on the down low against the Suns's poor interior defense. Nene Hilario, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin will all have a good opportunity to have a nice offensive game tonight. On the other side, we have Phoenix rotating their lineups a rot and they have been setting up a very fast pace on their games thanks to that. They have on the bench players like Jared Dudley, Luis Scola and Michael Beasley, but their real offensive weapon is the pick and rolls with Goran Dragic. I mentioned yesterday how the Hornets would have a clear edge on pick and rolls against Washington's defense who has regressed a lot on this area lately and the truth is that the Hornets shot 10-17 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays with 1.00 PPP! The problem for the Hornets's offense yesterday was that they couldn't hit a long shot to save their lives: 9-19 3pts and 4-15 FG on spot up plays! Still, the game between the Wizards and the Hornets had a combined offensive rating of 222.5 and that would have been enough for us to win the Over if it wasn't for the super slow pace of 82.4! However, tonight's game won't have a slow pace, while the combined offensive rating of this game should be similar or even better than yesterday's game between the Wizards and the Hornets. Both teams aren't in great spots, as Washington will be playing their fourth game in five days, while Phoenix will play their third game in four nights and they played last night as well at Atlanta. However, Washington played three of these games at home, including last night's contest against New Orleans, so the spot isn't that bad. On the other hand, Phoenix is rotating so much their players that they shouldn't struggle that much physically tonight, as nobody is playing heavy minutes right now. Therefore, I expect a relatively high scoring tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/15: Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 807 Phoenix Suns @ 808 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: 196 points

The last game between these two teams was a complete no-show from Atlanta, where they scored just 87 points at Phoenix on 42.5% FG shooting and while committing 21 turnovers! Josh Smith and Jeff Teague shot a combined of 5-21 FG! The Hawks were playing their third game of a road trip and they had just played a road game at Utah, so they had no legs to play at Phoenix. For tonight's game, the spot is much better for Atlanta, as they are on a home span and they're coming from a nice win over the Lakers, even though they were shorthanded. Of course Atlanta's offense will have a clear edge on transitions tonight. Phoenix is now experiencing a lot with their young players. They don't have a great interior presence and Jermaine O'Neal will start tonight at the Center position, but he doesn't have speed especially on an up and down game like this one, where Atlanta will set a fast tempo tonight. Phoenix allowed 24, 14, 22 and 17 fast break points on their last four games and the 14 points allowed were against the Rockets that were on a back to back spot, after playing a really tough game at Golden State the night before. Therefore, Atlanta won't have any problems in scoring easy points tonight.

Thanks to this aggressiveness from the Hawks, they are together with Miami the only two teams that are shooting more than 70% FG at the rim this season. Now against the poor interior defense of the Suns, we are going to have Atlanta scoring easy points at the rim plus their transition points, so we have excellent conditions in here to see the Hawks having a big offensive game tonight. On the other side, the Suns are now converted into an up tempo team, with an average pace of 95.4 on their last six games! They are giving considerable minutes to a lot of players, so their offensive flow is a bit ruined. However, on these six games, the Suns averaged a nice mark of 15.8 fast break points per game! Goran Dragic will have a nice matchup against Jeff Teague and he was the key factor on the Suns's win against Atlanta back in Phoenix with 8-15 FG, 19 points and 6 rebounds in just 29 minutes! We will have an almost run and gun game tonight, something that gives us a lot of value on the Over, looking at the current line of 192,5 points. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/13: Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 613 Phoenix Suns @ 614 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Houston by 15 points

We are in front of a very important game for Houston, as they are starting a home span that they'll need to take advantage of it in order to go to the playoffs. The good news if that they had 3 days off to rest and prepare for this home span. Today's game is the final game of a home-home series with Phoenix. Houston surprisingly lost at Phoenix, even though they were 7-points favorites. In my opinion, the Rockets lost that game due to their lack of fresh legs. They had won at Golden State in the night before, on a game where they were very tired down the stretch and so, considering they have no depth on their roster, a letdown was evident. Note that with James Harden and Chandler Parsons on the court, the Rockets outscored the Suns by 4 points, but Phoenix's second unit solved the game for them, with some inspired performances from players like Kandall Marshall, Hamed Haddadi, P.J. Tucker and Michael Beasley. 

Houston committed a total of 21 turnovers that originated 28 points off TO's for Phoenix. Turnovers has been a recurrent problem for the Rockets this season and everytime they play a back to back game, their turnover rate gets into 16.06%, while it is "just" 14.19% when they are rested. So, this is good news for today. I also can't ignore the fact that the Rockets shot 19-41 behind the line for an incredible 46.3% 3pts! This wasn't surprising, as the Suns have the worst 3pts defense in the league by allowing 39.2%! After this game, Phoenix hosted the Nuggets last Monday, where they lost by 15 points. For tonight's game, I expect Houston's offense to crush the Suns's awful perimeter defense. The Rockets's have an unstoppable offense when they are rested and I expect them to limit their turnovers as well. Phoenix's offense isn't consistent enough to be able to hang around with Houston's high potent offense, as when you give major minutes to players like Wesley Johnson and the Morris brothers, you won't be able to perform consistently for a long period of time. Therefore, I expect an easy blowout win for Houston tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 614 Houston Rockets (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/11: Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns

NBA - 507 Denver Nuggets @ 508 Phoenix Suns

Projected Line: Denver by 12 points

Denver is coming from another easy win over a hapless team. This time they crushed the Wolves at home last Saturday night. The Nuggets committed a high number of turnovers (19), but that was due to the good pressure on the ball handling from Minnesota and that's pretty much the only thing that the Wolves can do well right now. Besides that, Denver crushed them on the paint and they had especially another nice outside shooting game with 9-17 3pts! Mysynergy tells me that they also shot 13-21 FG on transitions, 10-15 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and 6-12 FG on spot up plays! On the other hand, Phoenix is coming from an upset home win over the Rockets, in a game where Houston was completely tired, after playing an important game at Golden State the night before. The Rockets have no depth on their roster and so, they couldn't handle the poor spot, as they shot 19-41 3pts, but committed 21 turnovers. However, it's important to note that the Rockets's starters completely outscored the Suns's starters. It's only necessary to check the +/- team points to realize that, as four of Phoenix's starters had at least -8 on this stat! The key factor of that game was really Phoenix's bench, who won the game for them, even though we are talking about inexperienced players like Hamed Haddadi, Kendall Marshall and even Michael Beasley was efficient with 4-7 FG and 4 rebounds!

In fact, Hamed Haddadi is currently the only available center for the Suns right now, but if that was enough against the tired Rockets, that won't be enough for the rested Nuggets and with a revenge factor, as they lost against Phoenix on the first game of the season played between these two teams. I heavily doubt that the Suns will be able to hang around with Denver tonight. Unlike Houston, the Nuggets have a great depth on their roster by having one of the best benches in the league and so, the Suns won't have the same second unit edge that they had against the Rockets. In fact, the Nuggets will be the team having a clear second unit edge on this game tonight. Phoenix's offense is still a work in progress and even though they scored 107 points against Houston, they dished just 18 assists! Denver with their good pressure on the ball handler will create a lot of turnover opportunities and they will pound the undersized Phoenix's interior defense, who will be missing both Marcin Gortat and Jermaine O'Neal tonight. Denver is just too much for Phoenix right now and so, I expect the Nuggets having an easy blowout win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Denver Nuggets (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/09: Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns

NBA - 509 Houston Rockets @ 510 Phoenix Suns

Projected Line: 207 points

Houston will play their third game in four nights tonight, after having played at Golden State last night. They played at Dallas last Wednesday on a back and forth game, where Chandler Parsons played 43 minutes, James Harden 39 minutes and the rest of the players had limited numbers. Last night against the Warriors, Houston made a huge effort with James Harden and Chandler Parsons playing 42 minutes, Omer Asik 39 minutes and Jeremy Lin 37 minutes! Even more important than that, both teams surprisingly made a huge effort on defense and with such effort, they couldn't have big offensive numbers, especially down the stretch where both the Rockets and the Warriors had no legs. A tired Rockets team can easily struggle, as they need fresh legs to shoot their treys and execute their transition plays.

This is why the Rockets don't have good offensive numbers in bad spots. On back to back games on the road this season, Houston is averaging just an offensive rating of 102.7, while shooting just 33.3% 3pts! This is impressive considering they're averaging for the season an offensive rating of 115.8 and 38.7% 3pts. To make things worse for Houston tonight, their game yesterday was an ESPN game that started at 10:30 PM EST and they will play at Phoenix tonight at 9PM EST!

On the other side, Phoenix will also be playing their third game in four nights, having played at Sacramento last night. That game was a shootout, with both teams not defending at all. The game had a lot of fast break points, loads of points at the paint and of course, after scoring just 71 points against Toronto, the Suns scored 112 points against the Kings. As weak as the Rockets's defense is, they will definitely show a bigger defensive effort tonight than Sacramento showed yesterday. Besides that, I don't believe the Suns will be able to have two great offensive games in consecutive days. Last night, both Morris brothers shot 50% FG, Wes Johnson shot 7-14 FG and even Michael Beasley shot 10-21 FG! With a bit of defensive pressure from the Rockets tonight, Phoenix's offense immediately struggles, as they don't have a lot of offensive skills. 

I don't believe this game will be a typical shootout due to the poor spots of both teams and the lack of offensive quality from Phoenix. Therefore, looking at the current totals line, I clearly have enough edge to take the Under in here and that's exactly what I'm going to do.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 211,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/01: Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns

NBA - 819 Atlanta Hawks @ 820 Phoenix Suns

Projected Line: 200 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Atlanta is on a roll and they are playing some nice offensive basketball right now. They have probably the most explosive starting unit in the league and they are using it very well: Al Horford, Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague are all mobile players that run up and down the court and so, the Hawks are now a spectacular team on the break. Atlanta scored more than 20 fast break points in six of their last eight games and their last game at Utah was no exception of that with 20 fast break points, while shooting 8-12 FG in transition. To add to their ability of scoring in transition, Atlanta has also the hottest big man in the league right now. Al Horford is coming from another huge game against the Jazz with 14-22 FG, 34 points and 15 rebounds! He had the best month of his career in February with 21.5 ppg, 62.1% FG and 11.3 rpg! If we add to this, a much more focused Josh Smith now that the trade deadline has passed, it's easy to understand why Atlanta is playing so well right now.

I don't believe Phoenix will be able to have a good defensive game against the Hawks tonight. Their frontcourt isn't able to protect the rim with 67% FG allowed on this area over their last 10 games and so, we can expect both Jeff Teague and Devin Harris to attack the rim and finish their moves with easy layups tonight. Even with Coach Hunter, Phoenix's defense has been very vulnerable in transitions. They are mixing up good and bad transition numbers, but when they face good transitions teams, then the trend is quite evident: they allowed 30 and 20 fast break points to Oklahoma City, 17 fast break points to Golden State, 18 fast break points to Boston and 16 and 20 fast break points to San Antonio! Looking at the current form of the Hawks and their explosive lineup, we can expect Atlanta to score once again more than 20 fast break points tonight.

On the other side, I believe that Phoenix will have some edges that will allow them to have a decent offensive game as well tonight. The disadvantage of using a small lineup like Atlanta's current starting lineup is that they get vulnerable on rebounding and Phoenix has been quite well on offensive rebounding lately with 14.25 offensive rebounds per game over their last four contests. One of the biggest defensive weaknesses of the Hawks is the fact that they are just #21 in the league in post up defense and they showed once again their problems on this area at Utah by allowing Al Jefferson and Derrick Favors to shoot a combined of 18-33 (55%) FG. Phoenix have Marcin Gortat and Luis Scola, who are decent post up players and they should be able to take advantage of the struggles from Atlanta's defense on this area. With the Hawks pushing up the pace of this game, I believe that Phoenix will counter that with Goran Dragic, whose speed is a big advantage for the Suns. Phoenix is currently on a rate winning streak and they will come for this game with more confidence that they have been showing over the last few months.

Therefore, I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch, with a fast pace and a lot of transition points from both teams. Looking at the current totals line, I believe it is set way too low for the kind of game this contest will be and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 819/820 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 715 Phoenix Suns @ 716 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: San Antonio by 20 points

Phoenix won an ugly basketball game last night at home against Minnesota in overtime. Phoenix's offense was a bit interesting due to the fact that they shot 41% FG, even though they had no ball movement, with 21 turnovers and several plays where the shotclock was expiring with them not being able to prepare a single offensive set play! Well, that's not unexpected considering the fact that Wesley Johnson played almost 40 minutes, while Michael Beasley played just 13 minutes. What saved the Suns yesterday was Minnesota's horrible shooting. The Wolves's bench keeps being a disaster, Alexey Shved is completely missing in action, J.J. Barea keeps forcing shots and this time, Luke Ridnour and Ricky Rubio combined a shooting of 5-23 FG! Coach Adelman started the second half with a three-guard lineup formed by Ricky Rubio, J.J. Barea and Luke Ridnour, and even though the trio ended the game with a combined of 12-40 FG, Phoenix struggled to adjust to Minnesota's speed on the backcourt. This was one of the reasons for the high amount of turnovers from the Suns, but Minnesota's offense was a complete disaster and wasn't able to fully take advantage of the Suns's errors throughout the game.

The Suns will play at San Antonio tonight, on a terrible physical spot for them. Their task for tonight is immediately tough because of that, especially against an elite rested team of San Antonio, who hasn't played at home for almost a month and so, they will have a fired up crowd for tonight. Phoenix's offense is such a mess with so many turnovers that it's very easy for their opponents to take advantage of their errors to score easy points off TO's. These two teams faced each other in Phoenix last Sunday and San Antonio easily won the contest by 10 points, in a game where they could have won by more than 20 points. In fact, the Spurs led the game by 21 points at a certain point of the game. However, the Spurs were on a poor spot on that game, as they were playing their final game of the Rodeo Trip, while coming from tough back to back games at LA against the Clippers and at Golden State, in a contest that went to overtime. Tony Parker didn't face the Suns last Sunday and with that, the Spurs slowed down in the fourth quarter and allowed the Suns to recover a bit and have a "respectable" loss.

The same won't happen tonight. San Antonio is rested, Tony Parker will play and it's the Suns who are on a tough physical spot this time. However, independently from the spot, given the current form of the Suns, they will get crushed against any elite team. This is exactly what it's going to happen tonight and so, I'll be taking San Antonio in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 San Antonio Spurs (-15.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/26: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns

Minnesota  at Phoenix

NBA - 513 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 514 Phoenix Suns Projected Line: Minnesota by 3 points Even though they lost one more time, Minnesota showed some good moments of basketball against Golden State on their last game. Their problem keeps being their poor decisions down the stretch and especially the fact that they can't hit a 3 pointer to save their lives, something that puts them as the worst 3pts shooting team in the league by far. The good news is that Ricky Rubio is looking amazing lately, as he is looking far more explosive and his overall numbers have improved in both ends of the floor. Over the past five games, Rubio has averaged 14.2 points, 9.2 assists, 6.2 rebounds and 4.6 steals per game. The Wolves have been +17 in Rubio's 174 minutes of floor time during this span and -23 in the 66 minutes where he was at the bench. Nikola Pekovic is also looking better physically, after being banged up for a lot of time, while Andrei Kirilenko has also returned at the lineup after an injury. Thanks to all of this, the Wolves are now a more competitive team lately. Phoenix is coming from a home loss at San Antonio, but they showed more effort in that game than in their previous contests. They never surrendered even though they were down in the score early on the second quarter and that's already something new and good for them. Phoenix's current top goal is to develop young players. The Morris Brothers played almost 20 minutes each and they brought a lot of energy to the team. They combined 5 offensive rebounds, more than the whole team of the Spurs had in that game, while Coach Hunter is rewarding the players who play hard on the court and not players like Michael Beasley, who was on the court for just 3 minutes against the Spurs! For this game, we have two teams in different levels right now. Minnesota is now more healthy with Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko and so, they feel that they can win games, while Phoenix is currently living with a lot of uncertainty in the rotations. They have now the 3rd worst record in the league and so, I wouldn't be surprised if they enter in tank mode for the rest of the season. Mostly thanks to the defensive aggressiveness from Rubio and Kirilenko, Minnesota is now forcing and creating a lot of turnovers, with an opponent turnover rate of 16.05% on their last 10 games! If they had that number as their season average, they would be #1 in the league! This aggressiveness will be important for tonight, as Phoenix's offense has no flow whatsoever lately and they have been very turnover prone, with 18.2 turnovers per game over their last 9 games! Therefore, we have a great edge favoring the Wolves's defense tonight. Minnesota's main problem on defense has been on the perimeter, but Phoenix's offense is the second worst 3pts shooting team in the league, only in front of Minnesota. With an healthy Ricky Rubio on the floor, Minnesota's offense is actually looking good. There are passing lanes and floor spacing, with Rubio always finding a way to feed Nikola Pekovic and Derrick Williams down low, while Andrei Kirilenko's Point Forward skills give the Wolves another good passing option. Note that against the Warriors, all the Wolves's starters ended the game with a positive net +/- team numbers and they actually hit 33 of their 67 shots, while their bench scored just 11 points and shot 4-18 FG! Of course, Golden State has Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry coming off the bench and that gave them a huge second unit edge over Minnesota, but Phoenix doesn't have such quality players coming off the bench! Minnesota is a way better team than Phoenix right now and so, they don't deserve to be underdogs in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Wolves tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Minnesota Timberwolves (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes