NBA Free Premium Play 04/27: San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

San Antonio  at Dallas

NBA - 747 San Antonio Spurs @ 748 Dallas Mavericks ***FREE Premium Play*** DAL’s head coach Rich Carlisle was fantastic in the first two games of the series, but especially in the last game, the Spurs really couldn’t play any worse. First of all, we should understand that at the end of the third quarter, the Mavericks had scored 88 points while shooting 50.7% FG & 6-14 from 3pts (42.9% mark). However, the Spurs were even better offensively by shooting 56.5% FG & 8-14 from 3pts (57.1% mark), but still, they were trailing by 13 points! Turnovers!!! SAS committed 21 TO’s in the first 3 quarters of the game and they were outrebounded as well – obviously, I have to give some props to DAL but really, the majority of those TO’s were the result of some incredible sloppy play from the Spurs! Turnovers & Rebounding is something really “easy” to fix, so I expect SAS to bounce back today in these two key areas. In that game, everything went well for the Mavericks. They couldn’t miss mid range jumpers…Shawn Marion was hitting three pointers… B. Wright battled foul trouble, and so Carlisle was “forced” to play D. Blair and Blair was just tremendous w/ 3-6 FG for 8 points + 7 rebounds and 4 steals in just 14 minutes of action! DAL played small ball and won the game… I expect SAS to be more “ready” for this contest while their biggest problem in G2 is pretty easy to fix and so, I’m taking the Spurs in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 747 San Antonio Spurs (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 04/20: Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs

Dallas  at San Antonio

NBA - 709 Dallas Mavericks @ 710 San Antonio Spurs Play #2 & #3 There is no question that the Spurs are the better team in here and will advance to the second round unless something “strange” happens. However, for the first game of the series, I really think that R. Carlisle will surprise the Spurs w/ a proper game plan that will make the Mavs competitive today. Plain and simple, the Mavs can’t run w/ the Spurs! In the last H2H game between these two teams, the Spurs won the game by 9 points primarily because they scored 35 fast break points! It was the Spurs’ highest mark of the regular season, so it was a clear sign for DAL and Carlisle knows that… In the last games of the regular season, Carlisle made some interesting changes to their lineup that really worked well for them. He decided to not give big minutes to Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert because their lack of speed was hurting their defense… that’s why both players logged only 17 & 14 minutes vs. PHX and even against MEM in the last game (OT game!), they played only 27 and 11 minutes! With both slow footed players on the court and playing major minutes, SAS will just kill the Mavs’ via PNR’s w/ Parker and their “bigs”… that’s one of the biggest reasons why the Spurs swept DAL 4-0 in the regular season! I expect DAL to give more minutes to D. Harris and B. Wright in this series and this can be a factor for today’s game – surprise factor working favorably for DAL! DAL’s improved defense and different rotation will be their “best weapon” vs. SAS especially in this first contest and that’s why I’m taking DAL & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Dallas Mavericks (+9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors

Dallas  at Golden State

NBA - 563 Dallas Mavericks @ 564 Golden State Warriors Play #7 Both teams are playing well and surprisingly, defense has been the X factor for both teams as of late. DAL has lost 3 straight games vs. CHI, SAS & DEN but they bounced back nicely in L2 games vs. POR & IND primarily because they were solid defensively in both games. After allowing 100, 112 & 115 points, the Mavs allowed just 98 & 94 in the L2 games. Dalembert is now getting more playing time while D. Harris has been a great factor for DAL in both ends of the floor. On the other end, GSW is really one of the best defensive teams in the league! They had some huge problems vs. PHX in the first half but HC Mark Jackson adjusted after the half time by playing “smaller” lineups and GSW crushed the Suns in the 3rd quarter w/ 38-17 score. Going for this contest, we have two teams that are committing few TO’s as of late – DAL = 11.6% TO/rate since the All star break vs. 11.3% from GSW! Also, we are dealing w/ two teams that have subpar FT/attempted per game numbers – both have FT/rate less than 20% since the all star break, so basically, we are dealing w/ two “pure” jump shooting teams. However, GSW is allowing just 29.7% from 3pts in L10 games - #2 best mark in the league! On the other end, S. Curry is banged up right now and clearly not playing @100%, so DAL defense have some room to defend GSW. The fact that the first 2 H2H’s games between these two teams ended up being “low scoring” games is not a coincidence, and w/ 209 pts line, I feel that we are dealing w/ inflated line in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 563/564 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers

Dallas  at Indiana

NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Indiana Pacers ***FREE Premium Play*** Well, DAL interior defense was completely dominated by Al Jefferson last night that destroyed them w/ 14-23 FG 30 pts while CHA as a team scored 60 pts in the paint and went 20-26 FG at the rim… Today won’t be easier for them as IND has a strong frontcourt unit that is coming from a pure domination vs. DEN in the last game: West 11-13 FG + Hibbert 6-12 FG + Scola 4-8 FG and even Mahimni 2-3 FG. Like I’ve said ton of times, IND’s offense is streaky and they are coming from a monster offensive game so they are confident and rested = good sign for some offensive continuity. Obviously, the X factor for this contest is related w/ DAL offense vs. IND defense… DAL was humiliated last night and DAL’s coach “rested” their key players, so we aren’t dealing with a typical “letdown” b2b spot. Having said that, DAL offense is actually a “bad matchup” for IND’s defense… IND’s defense is predicated to “force” their opponents to shoot from mid range and… well, this is what the Mavericks do & w/ some great efficiency: DAL is ranked #5 from 16-23feet + ranked #4 from 10-15feet! Somehow, I think that this matchup is similar to the one IND vs. POR…and POR covered the spread in both games because their offense was able to be efficient vs. IND defense. Despite last night’s awful game, DAL offense has been sharp and I expect them to be decent while IND’s offense will simply dominate down low. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 195.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/11: Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Bobcats

Dallas  at Charlotte

NBA - 503 Dallas Mavericks @ 504 Charlotte Bobcats Play #1 DAL offense is playing in an unbelievable high level right now led by Dirk Nowitzki… They are ranked #4 for the season and in L8 games their Off. Rtg. = insane 123.6! DAL’s Pick n Roll game has been superb and I really think that they will create ton of problems vs. CHA defense. CHA’s is struggling to defend P&R’s for quite some time now… you just need to know that SAS’s Patty Mills just killed them in the last game w/ 10-13 FG, 4-5 3pts & 8-9 FT for 32 pts primarily via P&R’s plays to understand these late struggles. CHA defense is predicated to protect the rim while they are a subpar perimeter defensive team, and obviously, DAL’s offense is exactly a jump shooting team. DAL defense has been the main problem for Rick Carlisle but they showed some improvement in L2 games, this is related IMO w/ the fact that D. Harris is now healthy and his speed is important b/c it’s a plus for a DAL slow footed backcourt & especially S. Dalembert is finally some decent basketball in both ends of the floor. Al Jefferson has been playing great as of late, but DAL has now Dalembert & Wright on the frontcourt to defend him… not a long time ago, D. Blair was their starting center, enough said! K. Walker has returned to action but he looked rusty to me in both contests - 10-30 FG! I don’t think that CHA will be able to hang around w/ the best Mavericks’ of the season! Yes, they were competitive against the Spurs in the last game, but while SAS is shorthanded and banged up, DAL is now finally healthy and I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Dallas Mavericks (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 02/07: Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks

Utah  at Dallas

NBA - 815 Utah Jazz @ 816 Dallas Mavericks *** FREE Premium Play*** The Mavericks’ offense has been playing @ unbelievable level as of late. I have them w/ 125 Off. Rtg. in the L6 games – insane numbers! Sure that they have faced some poor defensive teams during this stretch (BKN, DET, SAC and/or CLE) but scoring 110 points @MEM is a truly good testament of how good they are scoring the basketball right now. Dirk Nowitzki has been a beast - he made 10 of 14 shots for 26 points @MEM and he’s averaging 29.8 points on 61.6 percent shooting in his last five games. Well, I don’t expect UTA’s defense to be a tough matchup for them, as UTA is a subpar defensive team in key areas where DAL’s offense excels (P&R’s, spot up and transition). The key question for me it’s related w/ UTA’s offensive production for tonight… We are talking about a team that has scored 90, 87 and 79 pts L3 games. My key  factor for such bad offensive outcomes: Rookie Trey Burke is “tired” (pretty normal for a rookie) and G. Hayward is struggling a bit since he returned from an injury… just look for the combined FG% numbers from these 2 players in L3 games: vs. GSW: 3-20 FG; vs. LAC 5-26 FG & vs. TOR 7-25 FG. Also, those 3 teams are elite defensive teams vs. P&R ball handler -> a key offensive play for UTA. The good news for UTA is that they had 3 days off to rest and recharge the batteries for this contest, while Burke & Hayward will face tonight Jose Calderon & Monta Ellis, so they have a good matchup as well to be decent offensively. Also DAL interior defense is also far from being a decent unit and D. Favors will play tonight. Therefore, I expect both teams to have a considerable on offense and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.  Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Over 205.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 01/22: Dallas Mavericks @ Toronto Raptors

Dallas  at Toronto

NBA - 707 Dallas Mavericks @ 708 Toronto Raptors Play #4 The Raptors are just a terrible matchup for this Mavericks team… DAL rebounding has been awful all season long – they are the third worst defensive rebounding team in the league w/ subpar 72.1% Def. Reb/rate% and this bodes well for a decent TOR team that is top 10 in Offensive Boards (they are ranked #8). Both teams simply love to run P&R’s ball handler plays… I have DAL being #1 team vol% in the league while TOR is ranked #6…the biggest difference for tonight’s contest will be on the defensive side, b/c while TOR has been great defensively vs. this play (ranked #5) w/ better numbers in L10 games, the Mavericks are in a complete decline as of late… L4 games P&R BH defensive numbers: 1.11, 1.33, 1.40 & 0.78 PPP! TOR has lost their last 2 games mainly due to subpar defense, so I expect them to be more focused defensively tonight. With TOR having the edge on rebounding & defense, I expect their offense to be decent vs. an awful DAL defense and therefore, I’m taking them to win this contest. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Toronto Raptors (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/16: Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic

Dallas  at Orlando

NBA - 503 Dallas Mavericks @ 504 Orlando Magic Play #2 I really doubt Dallas's offensive skills when they are on bad spots like tonight due to the fact that they are a jump shooting team. In fact, on their last two road games where they were also on a back to back spot, the Mavericks scored just 93 points at Oklahoma City and then 91 points at Milwaukee. Yesterday on their game at Miami, Dirk Nowitzki played 36 minutes, Jose Calderon 35 minutes and Monta Ellis 42 minutes! Orlando's defense lacks some size on the frontcourt, but they are a quite decent perimeter defensive team, as shown with the fact that they are #5 in the league on 3pts defense with just 31.6% 3pts allowed, something that will cause problems for Dallas's offense that is prone to struggle on this kind of spots, as they are a jump shooting unit. On the other hand, Orlando has been quite competitive for their expectations before the start of the season especially due to their defense, as their offense has been indeed quite poor lately, with an average offensive rating of just 101.3 over their last four games! Nikola Vucevic is the only Magic player who can guarantee some easy points scored near the basket, with the rest of the lineup being formed by jump shooters, something that Dallas will like as they were completely crushed by Miami's dribble drive penetrations last night, something that won't happen tonight against Orlando. Therefore, I expect a relatively low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Dallas Mavericks NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	94.1	7
Offense	105.9	13
Defense	106.5	19
Rebound	47.9	27

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	50.6	11	eFG%	49.2	11
TO%	13.0	6	TO%	13.3	20
Reb%	21.8	28	Reb%	26.9	22
FT%	19.2	24	FT%	22.7	28

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	7-9	105.6	108.8
December	5-10	101.5	109.1
January	7-8	111.8	107.9
February	6-5	109.5	105.4
March	11-5	112.3	110.1
April	5-4	108.6	107.1

The Mavericks only secured a .500 record on the last day of the regular season, something that they have achieved on every season in the 21^st century. Even though all the problems that Rick Carlisle had to manage, the Mavericks were involved in the fight for the last playoffs spot, but they weren’t good enough to grab that spot at the end.

Dallas’s biggest star Dirk Nowitzki missed 29 games of the regular season and when he returned, he was obviously rusty. Carlisle simply didn’t trust on the players that he had for the Point Guard and Center positions, the key positions for any team to succeed. Darren Collison and Chris Kaman were supposedly the team’s starters, but they struggled to get the trust of their coach due to their inability to defend like Carlisle demanded them to.

Dallas had a clear pattern throughout the season: they were crushing any lowly team (27-9 record versus teams below .500 record), but they just couldn’t beat the best teams in the league (14-32 record versus above .500 record teams). The Mavericks had the reputation that they were clutch over the last few seasons, but they just couldn’t win a close game last season with a 5-8 record on games decided by 3 points or less and a 3-8 record on overtime games.

Jason Terry was gone and Dirk Nowitzki was either injured or rusty, so these struggles for Dallas to be competitive against top teams were inevitable. The good news is that Dirk regained his form during the second half of the season with 50.5% FG, 43.3% 3pts and 91.3% FT! In a particular stretch, Dirk was a “monster” with 12-21 FG & 33 points, 10-20 FG and 21 points and 14-17 FG & 35 points against the Clippers, the Pacers and the Bulls!

Dallas was an awful rebounding team in both ends of the floor during the whole season. They couldn’t stop avoid sending the opponents to the free throw line, while they were the pure definition of a jump shooting team on offense, with just 25.5% of their shots being at the rim: by far the lowest mark in the whole league!

Offseason Report:

Mark Cuban has been one of the biggest losers over the last few off-season’s by not being able to sign a big player on free agency. He attempted to sign Deron Williams and Dwight Howard last season and failed, while he attempted Howard again during this offseason but failed again, even Andrew Bynum preferred Cleveland instead of Dallas.

With plenty of cap room available, Mark Cuban had a green card to build the team’s roster. The Point Guard position was a mess last season and Cuban chose to sign veteran PG Jose Calderon and make Devin Harris return to the team. O.J. Mayo didn’t convince Rick Carlisle last season and Cuban didn’t make any effort to re-sign him on the offseason. Cuban took advantage of Monta Ellis’s current bad reputation to sign him on a three-year deal. Wayne Ellington was also signed to give the team more athleticism on the perimeter.

For the frontcourt, Chris Kaman leaving was inevitable. Dallas is missing Tyson Chandler badly these days. Dirk Nowitzki can’t play at the Center position these days, so the Mavericks signed veteran Center Samuel Dalembert and former-Spurs player DeJuan Blair on a nice pickup.

NBA Premium Play 04/02: Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 765 Dallas Mavericks @ 766 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 1 point

I believe Dallas will be super competitive tonight and the key reason for that is Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging 25.6 points, 59% FG, 47% 3pts, 90% FT and 7 rebounds on Dallas's last five games! The most incredible fact is that the Mavericks haven't been facing scrub teams like the Lakers lately! Dallas faced Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Boston, Utah, LA Clippers, Indiana and Chicago on their last eight games. All teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today! Offensively, Dallas will have a clear edge in transition tonight, even though I don't think Dallas will try to take a lot of advantage from that tonight, as I expect the Mavericks to try to set a halfcourt pace at times to expose Pau Gasol's slowness on the matchup that he will have against Dirk Nowitzki. 

So, the question in here will be to know what the Lakers's offense will do against the Mavericks's defense. On the last game between these two teams, the Lakers won at Dallas with a super sharp outside game: 13-25 3pts! The Lakers used Kobe Bryant as their main PG for almost the whole game, with Steve Nash playing off the ball. This is why Nash had 4 assists in that game, while Kobe had 7. The goal was to take advantage of Dallas's poor positional defense at the PG position and that worked very well, with Kobe Bryant being completely unstoppable in the 4th quarter, while Steve Nash also had a good game with 7-12 FG and 4-5 3pts for a 20 points performance!

But things will be completely different tonight. Kobe Bryant is banged up, while Steve Nash and Metta World Peace are out due to injury. As Steve Blake isn't half the shooter that Steve Nash is, Dallas will be able to focus on Kobe Bryant, besides the fact that the Mavericks won't be surprised by the Lakers tonight like they did in the previous game. Of course the Lakers will have the edge down low with Dwight Howard, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mavericks use a zone defense to mess around with the Lakers's offense. I expect this game to be a fast paced game, but where the Mavericks's depth edge might make the difference down the stretch. I expect this game to be a pure ball game and right now I wouldn't want to bet against a team that has a red hot Dirk Nowitzki! Therefore, I'll be taking the Mavericks plus the points tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 765 Dallas Mavericks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/30: Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks

Chicago  at Dallas

NBA - 501 Chicago Bulls @ 502 Dallas Mavericks Projected Line: 93 points FIRST HALF We have a weird early game on a Saturday afternoon. Dallas is coming from a game against a top defensive team, where they got completely shutdown by the Pacers, while they were also outrebounded by grabbing just 39.5% of the rebounds in that game. The Mavericks will host another good defensive team in the Bulls today. O.J. Mayo is also injured on his shoulder and he is questionable for today, This means that Vince Carter will have to play more minutes and he will have a tough matchup against a good defender like Jimmy Butler. I believe Dallas will be better prepared today to be physical since the start of the game, unlike what it happened on their Thursday game against Indiana. Chicago is coming from a big home win against Miami, where they showed a lot of hustle, but they won't have an easy spot today, as they had just 1 day off between games, they had to make a considerable trip and they will play early in the day today. They will be facing a Dallas team that struggles on defense at the PG position, but Kirk Hinrich isn't a great threat to the Mavs's defense. On the other hand, Dallas may have some edge on transitions today, but the Bulls with Kirk Hinrich and Jimmy Butler as their starting backcourt is a much better transition defensive team than they have been with Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli. The Bulls's 3pts defense is amazing and so, Dallas will struggle in having a good outside shooting game just like they struggled against the Pacers on their last game. I believe both teams will show a lot of intensity early on, while the bad spot for both teams will make both offenses struggle early in the game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on the First Half of today's early game. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 96,5 FIRST HALF @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/28: Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks

NBA - 803 Indiana Pacers @ 804 Dallas Mavericks

Projected Line: Dallas by 7 points

The Pacers had a nice win yesterday at Houston, even though they were shorthanded, but there was a lot of demerit from Houston, who showed that they are very inexperienced. They probably celebrated their win over San Antonio too much and so, they came to yesterday's game with no sense of urgency and without a proper game plan. Indiana simply crushed them down low with Roy Hibbert having a huge game with 11-17 FG, 28 points and 10-14 FG from 9 feet or closer to the basket! But I have also to mention that some of his baskets were lucky shots as well. Indiana also explored Houston's lazy transition defense quite well in order to have layups and dunks. As good as James Harden is on offense, he is a defensive liability and the player who Harden was supposed to defend had a field day because of that: Lance Stephenson had 9-14 FG and 21 points! From a defensive point of view, Indiana was... Indiana! They are awesome in rim defense and also in 3pts defense, something that they showed once again last night. Houston's offense is built around those two areas and they were stopped by the Pacers's defense. This is why I successfully took the Under on last night's game.

For tonight, on the other hand, I expect Indiana to struggle. Not only they will have a bad spot, as they will play their fifth game in seven days, including their win at Houston last night, as Dallas is also a tough matchup for them. Dallas's defense is far from the level of Indiana's defense and their main problems at the PG position. On their last game against the Clippers, Chris Paul did whatever he wanted to do with 12-15 FG, 33 points and 5 assists, while exposing the Mavericks's defense on this area. Fortunately for Dallas, George Hill is banged up and he shouldn't have played against the Rockets last night. He wasn't physically well and that's why he shot 1-11 FG in 38 minutes yesterday. Today, I don't expect Hill to suddenly recover and so, I believe Dallas won't get torched by their opposing PG this time. As I've mentioned several times in the past, Indiana's outside shooting is very inconsistent and it tends to get really cold on back to back games. This is why they are just shooting 36% FG from 16-23 feet and 30% treys on the second night of a back to back this season. Both David West and Danny Granger will return tonight, but I believe this won't be great news for them today, as the Pacers will need one or two games to establish their identity once again with these returns.

On the other side, Dallas's offense will actually be a tough matchup for the Pacers's defense than Houston was last night. Houston's frontcourt doesn't have anybody who is a solid mid-range shooter in order to remove the Pacers's frontcourt players from near the basket. So, Roy Hibbert didn't need to move yesterday from near the basket and he spent the game just contesting shots at the rim. That won't happen tonight with Dallas, who has Dirk Nowitzki back in good form, Elton Brand and Chris Kaman, three frontcourt players with solid shooting skills from mid-range. As I've mentioned previously, Indiana's defense is built to protect the rim and the 3pts shots. They want their opponents to shoot from the 16-23 feet area, generally the area where offenses are least efficient. The problem for Indiana tonight is that Dallas is one of the best shooting teams in the league from that area with 42.7% FG (#3 in the league). Their recent numbers have been even more amazing with 46% FG from 16-23 feet on their last 10 games! Indiana's defense is just #21 in the league on 16-23 feet defense and therefore, I expect Dallas's mid-range shooting to torch them tonight.

I believe that we have some considerable edges for Dallas tonight. Unlike Houston, Dallas is an experienced team and they will come to this game ultra focused, as if they win tonight, they will finally reach the .500 wins mark with a 36-36 record. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Mavericks tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 804 Dallas Mavericks (-3,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 03/26: Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks

NBA - 655 Los Angeles Clippers @ 656 Dallas Mavericks

Projected Line: 199 points

I expect this contest to be a relatively low-scoring game. Dallas is coming from a nice home win over Utah, where they actually did a nice defensive job against the Jazz until they allowed them to score 28 points in the final 5:26 after the game, when the game was relatively solved for the Mavericks. Elton Brand did a really nice job on defense by limiting both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, so I expect them to show a good defensive effort tonight as well, on this very important game for Dallas. The main weapon that the Clippers have on offense to pound the Mavericks's defense is Chris Paul, who has a great matchup against the Mavericks's Point Guards, however he is banged up with a knee injury and if he plays tonight, he is unlikely to be at 100% physically tonight.

On the other hand, the Clippers's are playing better transition defense lately and that's really important for them, as they will play a good transition team like Dallas tonight. The LA team is #1 in the league on pick and roll defense and their only struggle has been on spot up defense, an area where Dallas has some talent, but not enough to pound the Clippers's defense tonight with a bunch of treys, especially when the Clippers's issues on this area are mostly related with laziness and lack of effort, something unlikely to happen on a close contest broadcast on National TV. I expect the pace of this game to be relatively slow, with the Mavericks showing some great effort on defense, especially with Shawn Marion putting extra pressure on a banged up Chris Paul, while the Clippers's defense should also be able to limit Dallas's transitions and pick and rolls. Therefore, looking at the high totals line, we have value on the Under tonight and so, I'll be taking it in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 655/656 Under 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/22: Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks

NBA - 815 Boston Celtics @ 816 Dallas Mavericks

Projected Line: 194 points | Dallas by 1 point

After getting crushed by Brooklyn, Dallas has good news in tonight's game against Boston, as the Celtics don't have a dominant Center or a great Point Guard to dominate the Mavericks in the two positions where they are struggling the most. With Shawn Marion also likely to be back tonight, Dallas should definitely do a much better defensive job tonight than they did on their last two games against Atlanta and Brooklyn. Boston's offense relies on pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups, as they are a typical jump shooting team, and the Mavericks's defense is decent on these two areas, even though they are regressing a bit on spot up defense with 1.05 PPP allowed since the All-Star break. However, Boston isn't on a great spot for tonight, as they made a massive effort last Monday night against Boston and then lost a ballgame at New Orleans last Wednesday, so I don't expect the Celtics's offense to have their super fresh legs to have a great jump shooting game tonight.

On the other hand, Dallas has been using a lot of pick and roll ball handlers lately, with 17% volume since the All Star break. Their problem for tonight is that the Celtics are an elite defensive team against this kind of plays. Kevin Garnett will also be a tough opponent for Dirk Nowitzki, while Boston's perimeter defense is also excellent and they will prevent the Mavericks from hitting the treys that they need to have good offensive games. The only area where Dallas will have a nice offensive edge tonight is on transitions, but that isn't enough on its own to allow Dallas to have a good offensive game tonight, when they are getting shutdown in both pick and rolls and spot ups. After their loss at New Orleans, Doc Rivers and Avery Bradley reassured that their team needs to be more effective and less spectacular to get back to winning games: 

"We absolutely deserved to lose the game, whether we won it or not," said Celtics coach Doc Rivers. "We deserved to lose the game. We went from being a solid, just a good looking basketball team, to showtime. I believe in the basketball gods. When you mess with the game, the game messes you up."

"We just can't play down to anybody," said Avery Bradley. "We have to play consistent; that's what we have to do every single game and we didn't do that tonight."

I expect Boston to more very solid tonight, especially on defense, even though their offense is likely to struggle a bit tonight. This should turn this game into a relatively low-scoring game, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here. As I expect the Celtics to bounce back tonight and show that they aren't an inferior team to Dallas, I'll be taking Boston in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815 Boston Celtics (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/20: Brooklyn Nets @ Dallas Mavericks

NBA - 611 Brooklyn Nets @ 612 Dallas Mavericks

Projected Line: Dallas by 1 point

Dallas's spot isn't easy for them tonight. They were playing their fourth game in five nights at Atlanta and they had just one day off for tonight, so they will be playing their fifth game in seven days! It's easy to explain what happened on their game against the Hawks. Atlanta started the game with Al Horford, Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague, as they basically wanted to win this game with the same tactics that they've used at Dallas against the Mavericks: outrunning them! But that didn't work for Atlanta, as Dallas just couldn't miss a shot on that game. When Mike James and Darren Collison shot a combined of 13-19 FG, there isn't a lot to say.

What we know for tonight is that Dallas's game against Brooklyn won't have nothing in common with the high scoring game that the Mavericks had in Atlanta. Brooklyn will play their third game in four nights today, however they are coming from a walk in the park in Detroit last Monday. Looking at tonight's matchups, Brook Lopez will have a clear edge over the Mavericks's frontcourt players, while Deron Williams should also have a good performance tonight against Dallas's Point Guards. Shawn Marion would be important for Dallas to be able to defend Joe Johnson, but he is still out due to a calf injury. If we add to all of this the fact that Brooklyn is crushing their opponents on the offensive boards, the Nets have a great matchup on offense tonight.

Dallas's offense will have an edge on transitions, as Brooklyn's transition defense isn't good. Atlanta scored 22 fast break points against them and even Detroit scored 20 fast break points on Brooklyn's last game. However, looking at the overall matchup, I expect Brooklyn to be able to be much more competitive than they were in the first game played between these two teams in Brooklyn earlier on the season, where the Nets pretty much laid an egg with 20 turnovers and had an overall poor performance. I expect Brooklyn to be very competitive tonight, as they have a better spot and they have in Dallas a great matchup. Therefore, I'll be taking the Nets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 611 Brooklyn Nets (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/18: Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks

Dallas  at Atlanta

NBA - 509 Dallas Mavericks @ 510 Atlanta Hawks Projected Line: 199 points This is a terrible spot for Dallas today, as they will play their fourth game in five days, while also being on the second night of a back-to-back, after giving a big fight to Oklahoma City last night. Coach Carlisle finally decided to bench Chris Kaman and start Elton Brand and Jae Crowder! Dallas played with their best available defensive lineup, but Shawn Marion's absence is really noted on the defensive end. However, the removal of Darren Collison and Chris Kaman from the starting lineup is already a big defensive improvement for them. With these changes, Dallas was actually able to do a decent defensive job against the Thunder, as they allowed just 73 points to Oklahoma City in the first three quarters of the game. The problem was on the fourth quarter, where Kevin Durant exploded and scored 19 points on his own! The weirdest part of Dallas's game yesterday was Dirk Nowitzki only having 10 FG attempts during the whole game, after starting the game with 8-8 FG! He didn't even attempt to shoot the ball during the whole fourth quarter! Dallas had good transition numbers as always with 24 fast break points with 9-11 FG on transitions, but I didn't like to see them having just 18 assists, as that's a sign of poor ball movement. The Mavericks will play tonight at Atlanta and this will be a game between two teams that like to score fast break points. However, both teams have also good transition defenses, as Atlanta is #6 in the league with 1.10 PPP allowed, while Dallas is #14 in the league with 1.13 PPP allowed, even though they have just allowed 0.99 PPP on their last five games! The fact that both teams are on back to back spots tonight won't help their offenses in being quick enough to be able to score in transition. I took the Over on the first game of this series and with success, as the game ended with 206 points score. Both teams scored a combined of 40 fast break points, while both frontcourts had a lot of offensive success: Dirk Nowitzki and Brandon Wright shot a combined of 13-20 FG, while Josh Smith and Al Horford shot a combined of 20-29 FG! Both teams are protecting the rim quite well by allowing just 63% FG since the All Star break and with the necessity of both teams having great outside shooting numbers in such poor physical spot for them in order for this game to go Over the total posted, I see a lot of value on the Under and so, I'll be taking it in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 203,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/14: Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 701 Dallas Mavericks @ 702 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 210 points

Both teams are coming from games in the North and they had to travel back to Texas to play tonight's game. San Antonio had a monster game against Oklahoma City at home, then they played a back to back game at Minnesota, where Coach Popovich rested Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan, and now they are returning home to play their third game in four nights. On the other hand, Dallas will be playing the final game of a 4-games road trip, where they played every game with a 1 day off rest. This will be the fourth and last game between these two teams on the regular season and San Antonio comfortably won the first three games. On the first two contests, San Antonio had a better spot and Dirk Nowitzki was still very limited, so the Spurs crushed the Mavericks without trouble. On the third game, Dallas was super rested with 3 days off, while San Antonio had 1 day off, but played without Tim Duncan. 

The main difference for tonight's game will be Tony Parker's absence, who averaged 56.1% FG, 20.7 points and 8.3 assists on the first three games of the series. I believe Dallas will be much more competitive tonight, as they have a much better offensive flow nowadays, especially with an interesting lineup with Vince Carter, Elton Brand, Brandan Wright and Darren Collison. The Mavericks's offense is mostly based on pick and roll ball handler plays (17% volume), spot ups (20% volume) and transitions (16% volume). They have decent numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.80 PPP, while they have been amazing on spot ups and transitions. San Antonio's defense is regressing on transitions (1.09 PPP season vs 1.19 PPP L10 games and 1.25 PPP L5 games), so I expect Dallas to have a good offensive game tonight. Their second unit is very confident right now and matchup wise, Elton Brand will come off the bench and have a clear edge down low over Matt Bonner/Boris Diaw/DeJuan Blair, while Dirk Nowitzki will force Tiago Splitter to get out of his comfort zone and have a very good offensive game in here as well.

Dallas has been struggling on defense at the PG defense and so, Tony Parker's absence will give them some relief. However, San Antonio has been having super numbers on transitions, the same happening with cuts. They are also quite nice on pick and roll ball handler plays and post ups. Dallas's transition defense has been a complete mess with 1.30 PPP allowed since the All Star Break, while their pick and roll ball handler defense is also quite poor due to their struggles at the PG position. Therefore, the Spurs should have another huge offensive game tonight over the Mavericks. I believe that San Antonio will score a lot today, as on the previous games where they lost and were a home favorite in the following game, they scored 109 points against Philadelphia, 108 points against the LA Lakers, 106 points against Minnesota, 130 points against Sacramento and 105 points against Oklahoma City. On the other hand, Dallas is also playing well on offense and they have a good second unit, so even if San Antonio decides the game early, the Mavericks should still be able to produce good offense on the trash time. Therefore, I expect this contest to be another very high scoring game between these two teams and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/12: Dallas Mavericks @ Milwaukee Bucks

NBA - 561 Dallas Mavericks @ 562 Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Line: Dallas by 2 points

Milwaukee had a 3-game road trip against Pacific opponents, including back to back games at Golden State and Sacramento. They were completely shorthanded in the game against the Kings and now, with just 1 day off to rest and prepare tonight's game, this is definitely a tough game for them, especially as they have four banged up players: Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick and Luc Mbah a Moute. On the other hand, Dallas has a much easier spot: they are also on a road trip, but always on short trips. They played at Detroit, then at Minnesota and they'll play tonight at Milwaukee. Besides that, they had a blowout win over the Wolves on their last game, where they were able to rest their starters. This is also a revenge game for Dallas, as they lost at home against the Bucks, in a game where I took Milwaukee +5,5. The Bucks won that game by 95-90, while ending the contest on a 12-2 run, after being down by 83-88 with three minutes to go! Both teams were super inconsistent in that game, with both the Mavs and the Bucks alternating big runs on the scoreboard. What screwed the Mavericks at the end was the poor play of their bench, as Vince Carter shot 0-8 FG, Mike James 0-4 FG, Anthony Morrow 0-2 FG and Jae Crowder 0-2 for a combined of 0-16 FG! If we add to this poor play from Dallas's bench a terrible outside shooting night with 1-17 3pts and 20 turnovers, it's actually incredible how Dallas was up by 5 points with 3 minutes to go!

Dallas's offense is based on two key areas for them. pick and roll ball handler plays (#7 in the league) and transitions (#4 in the league). On this contest with Larry Sanders banged up plus Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings coming from heavy minutes on their road trip, I believe the Mavericks will be able to have good numbers on these two areas. Dallas won't get crushed on the rebounds tonight, as Milwaukee isn't a much better rebounding team than them. So, with the Mavericks having a much better physical spot, revenge and also a better mental spot as they're fighting for a playoff spot, I believe Dallas will be able to score an important win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Mavericks in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 561 Dallas Mavericks (+2) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada 

NBA Premium Play 03/03: Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 813 Dallas Mavericks @ 814 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Houston by 2 points

As much as Houston is a potent offensive team, they are quite the opposite on defense, especially on transitions and stopping the opposing guards from penetrating into the basket. Both Jeremy Lin and especially James Harden simply aren't focused on defense and so, the Rockets are a poor defensive team. They'll now face a Dallas team that are a tough team to beat in fast paced games, as they are #4 in transitions, #6 in pick and roll ball handlers and #4 in pick and roll roll man plays. So, it isn't a big surprise that Dallas is 2-0 against Houston this season.

Dirk Nowitzki is slowly getting back into form and he will have an excellent matchup against the inexperienced rookie Donatas Motiejunas. Dallas will also have an edge in terms of second unit, as while the Rockets only have Carlos Delfino and Patrick Beverley as decent options in the bench, the Mavericks have Vince Carter, Elton Brand, Mike James and Jae Crowder. Right now, with Dirk Nowitzki playing at 70% of his level, the Mavericks and the Rockets have a similar level. Therefore, I see a lot of value on the Mavericks tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813 Dallas Mavericks (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 709 Dallas Mavericks @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Lines: 192 points | Memphis by 11 points

Dallas played at home against the Lakers on Sunday afternoon and then, they also faced Milwaukee at home last night. The Mavericks finally ended their home span, where they had favorable spots in playing home games against teams that were mostly lowly teams and sometimes even on a poor back to back spot. Dallas took advantage of that, but as soon as they faced decent teams like Atlanta, the Lakers and Milwaukee, things were different. As usual, their in-game inconsistency was a problem for them. They started yesterday's game against Milwaukee with a 11-0 run, just to lose that advantage on the score shortly after, while they were also up by 88-83 with 3 minutes to go, just to allow a 2-13 run to Milwaukee to close the game. The Mavericks struggled once again on turnovers, while their poor rebounding was hidden in most of these games due to Dallas having a physical edge in almost every game of this span! Yesterday Dirk Nowitzki was excellent with 20 rebounds and 8-16 FG for 21 points! What made the Mavericks lose last night was their second unit getting outplayed by the Bucks, besides the usual problem with turnovers and a poor outside shooting game with 1-17 3pts!

I don't believe Dallas will be able to handle their poor spot for tonight and so, they will crushed by the improved Grizzlies. Dallas's defensive rebounding problems and turnover issues will be completely exposed by Memphis, who is an elite area in these two areas! Dirk had a monster effort against Milwaukee last night and I doubt he will able to produce such effort tonight as well against Zach Randolph! Even though we are talking about a small sample, Dirk had 34.8% FG, 13.7ppg and 5.3 rpg on the three back to back games that he has already played this season!

We know that Dallas's offense relies on the speed of their guards. They are an elite transition offensive team, but Memphis's defense is #7 in the league on transition plays with 1.10 PPP allowed, even though they have regressed on this area a bit since the Rudy Gay trade. On the last game between these two teams, Dallas crushed Memphis by 104-83, in a game where the Grizzlies were on a back to back spot, after having played a very important game against San Antonio in the previous night that went to overtime. A letdown in the following game against the Mavericks was inevitable and this is why I took Dallas in that game. Memphis certainly remembers of this loss and so, I expect them to get revenge tonight. 

Memphis with Tayshaun Prince has been having great offensive games every time they face fast paced teams. Of course that when they play half court games, like they did at Brooklyn or at Toronto, they show some stellar defense, but against fast paced teams like Sacramento, Detroit or Minnesota, they have nice offensive numbers. I believe the same will happen tonight, with the Grizzlies forcing a lot of turnovers that will result in an easy transition points for them. Memphis will also have a big edge down low over Dallas's poor interior defense and that will allow them to have a big offensive game tonight. I expect the Grizzlies to have an easy win tonight on a great offensive performance from them, therefore I'll be taking both the Grizzlies and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Memphis Grizzlies (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker (ALREADY RELEASED)

***ADDED PLAY***

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 187 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline