NBA - 717 Portland Trailblazers @ 718 Atlanta Hawks
Projected line: Portland by 4 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
I
believe Atlanta is headed into big trouble tonight. Since they lost Al
Horford due to injury, the Hawks have won their last three games against
Charlotte, Minnesota and Toronto. However, Charlotte was slumping hard,
Minnesota was on a back to back to back game and almost won the game,
while Toronto was playing without Bargnani. Atlanta needs on a big game
like this one good performances from both JJ and Josh, especially when
Teague is too inconsistent and Marvin has been out of form since he
cameback from injury: 3-6 FG vs MIN & 0-5 FG vs TOR! The Hawks' last
game against Toronto was a good indicator how the team is playing right
now, with JJ shooting 9-20 FG and Josh 13-19 FG! That's 39 FG shots
from the total of 75 FG tried by the team during the whole game! More
than 55% of these shots were tried by just two players! Toronto had
nobody to defend them, as their guards were too small for JJ and the
frontcourt lacked the physical ability to stop them as well.
That's not the case of Portland, as they are a good perimeter
defense team, with Gerald and Batum forming a good combo to stop Josh,
while Matthews will also do a good job to defend the perimeter as well.
And then, there's the key for this contest: LeMarcus Aldridge! Without
Horford, Atlanta is just too undersized to guard him. Until now,
Atlanta's struggles with Horford out weren't exposed because they faced
lowly teams. As we know, Portland has a very good help defense, with the
6th best Spot Up defense in the whole league by allowing just 0.86 PPP!
And the Spot Up plays are generally the strongest part of the Hawks
offense with 1.02 PPP and 25.20%! More than one quarter of their plays!
Bottom line, this will be a very tough game for the Hawks tonight,
as Portland will be able to defend them well, while Atlanta is too
undersized to guard Aldridge, as he is just too big and too strong for
Josh or other Atlanta player. Portland also has a better bench and in a
potential ugly game, their athletic skills will be the key. I strongly
believe Portland is the better team than Atlanta without Horford and
Hinrich, therefore I'll be taking the Blazers tonight.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 717 Portland Trailblazers (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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