Tuesday, January 17, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/16: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics

NBA - 719 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 720 Boston Celtics

Projected line: Boston by 1 point

***SPLIT THE WAGER***
How is this possible we are taking Boston in this contest? They have been horrible and the young Thunder are one of the best teams in the league!!! Boston is 0-4 on their last 4 games, while scoring 74, 85, 79 and 83 points, but matchup wise, if we stopped being only focused in the athletic edge that Oklahoma City has over Boston, we will quickly realize that the Celtics have some edges on this contest that are being forgotten.

First of all, Rajon Rondo will have a clear edge over Russell Westbrook. As I've already said several times this season, Westbrook hasn't been able to keep his cool and his self-destruction keeps making the team struggle. Note that the Thunder are without their backup PG (Maynor is injured) and Rondo is a very smart guy, being an excellent defender with a high number of steals, so Boston will have a very important edge in here.

The Thunder are an improved defensive team this season and we will keep listening that Perkins has been the key for that. But the truth is that the Thunder are allowing 42.3 ppg in the paint this season! That's the 5th worst mark in the whole season! On their four recent losses, Boston faced Indiana (x2), Dallas and Chicago. And the truth is that these three teams are very good defensive teams in the paint. Dallas is 2nd with 33.2 ppg allowed, Chicago is 7th with 37.3 ppg allowed and Indiana is 13th with 38.7 ppg allowed. These teams were able to prevent the Celtics from scoring easy points in the paint, as Boston scored just 28, 30, 34 and 24 points in the paint in those games. With the Celtics struggling on their outside shooting, Boston's offense was quickly stopped in those games. But today against the mediocre interior defense of the Thunder, Boston will be able to create more easy points opportunities near the basket and this will allow the Celtics offense to be more well balanced.

It's obvious that Durant will have a physical edge over Pierce, but at least Pierce won't be physically challenged down low and Durant will have to score his points from the outside. Boston has been struggling in the center position with a banged up Jermaine O'Neal, however Perkins, as much as he has slimmed down and improved, is not an offensive threat and so the team help defense of Boston will do a reasonable job tonight.

Therefore, looking at all these angles, I believe this game should have had a line close to PK. Oklahoma City may be a better overall team, but Boston is on a clear bounce back spot and playing at home, they will fired up to recover from their recent losses and make a statement over a top team on national television. So, I'll be taking the Celtics tonight. Split the wager!

Pick: 1 unit on 720 Boston Celtics ML @ +125 / 2.25 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on 720 Boston Celtics (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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