NBA - 701 Denver Nuggets @ 702 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected lines: 198 points | Philadelphia by 9 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***Yesterday
in their game against the Nuggets, Milwaukee tried to play fire with
fire and so, the game was played at a super fast pace of 96.69!
Basically, the Bucks failed at everything in that game. They committed
19 turnovers, which originated 25 points off turnovers from Denver, who
also scored 18 fast break points and shot 7-17 FG on transition plays.
These numbers aren't huge because a lot of transition plays from Denver
ended in personal fouls from the Bucks, which sent the Nuggets to the FT
line. That's why the Nuggets shot just 29-37 FT vs 12-14 FT for
Milwaukee. Everytime a team commits so many turnovers and personal
fouls, they are completely screwed against Denver. Besides that, the
Nuggets had a surprisingly great outside shooting night with 12-15 3pts,
with Brewer shooting 8-14 FG and 3-6 3pts!!! However, Denver struggled
on the inside with just 15-33 FG at the rim, 2-6 FG from 3-9 feet and
2-7 FG from 10-15 feet! So, it was the transition plays, the fast break
points and their outside game that saved them yesterday.
But Denver won't be today so lucky today against Philadelphia. The
Sixers are #1 in the league in TO/rate with just 11.75%, so it seems
highly unlikely that they will commit a big number of turnovers today
and therefore, Denver will be without one of their offensive weapons
today. Besides that, the Sixers are also #1 in the league in defending
transition plays with just 0.92 PPP allowed! So, Denver's transition
plays won't be effective today. And if that wasn't enough, Philadelphia
is just #4 in the league in FT/rate with just 23.8%, which means that
they don't give many FT chances to their opponents, so we won't see
Denver going loads of times to the FT line today. All it's left right
now for the Nuggets is to have a huge game at the rim or have another
red hot outside shooting game, but that's unlikely to happen as the
Sixers are #3 in the league in defending Spot Up plays by allowing just
0.80 PPP! So, all the Nuggets have left is really their interior game at
the rim, where they indeed have a bit better matchup against
Philadelphia than in the other areas I've just described, as the Sixers
are just a Top 15 team in FG% allowed at the rim with 65% FG. However,
Denver's rim game depends on their quick PG Lawson and tonight he will
have a really tough matchup with Holiday, who is a great defender! Plus
this is a back to back game for Denver and therefore, their legs won't
be 100% fresh. Besides Holiday, the Sixers has also Iguodala, who is
basically the best perimeter defender in the whole league!
On the other side, Philadelphia have been playing on a similar style
to Denver's style, but with an easier schedule and a much better
defense. They have probably the deepest bench in the league and they are
a team that likes to run. They have been red hot from the outside,
mainly thanks to Meeks and the X factor on this game has really have to
do with the difference of the quality between the defense of both teams.
Philadelphia will play this match on an easier spot than Denver's and
their offense is so confident and so well coordinated that they won't
commit a lot of errors, which will make Denver immediately struggle, as
the Nuggets will be forced to play more time on half court than they
would wish to do and that will be completely fatal for them tonight. I
believe Philadelphia is going to get another great win tonight and by a
good margin, so I'll take them in here. Considering how I believe the
Sixers defense will make the Nuggets offense struggle big time tonight
and looking at the very high line offered by the sportsbooks, I'll be
taking the under in here as well.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Philadelphia 76ers (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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