NBA - 515 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 516 New Jersey Nets
Projected lines: 194 points | Oklahoma City by 12 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
After
a big win at Boston, Oklahoma City looked quite relaxed at Washington,
where they had an early lead, but the sloppiness they showed the whole
game ended up being a big factor for their upset loss against the
Wizards. Note that their offense did really well in terms of shooting
with 50.6% eFG and 23-30 FT, their problems was really their lack of
effort and focus: they committed 21 turnovers, with Durant "pulling a
Westbrook" with 7 turnovers on his own! The Thunder were completely
outrebounded by grabbing just 40% of the total boards with 6-19 in
offensive rebounds, while allowing 23 fast break points. Finally and
even though the Wizards shot just 38.4% FG, they had 43 FT attempts! For
today, I expect Oklahoma City to have a bounce back with much better
focusing!
“We weren't as focused as we needed to be, for sure,” forward Nick
Collison finally admitted. “We've been much sharper than that for a lot
of the season. So we were nowhere near as focused as we we needed to
be.”; “They just played harder than us,” said forward Kevin Durant.
On the other side, the Nets are coming from a nice win against
Golden State where they were unbelievable from the outside, with 8-14 FG
from 16-23 feet and 11-29 3pts! The interior game volume was almost
zero, with just 32 points in the paint scored. They were also able to
win the boards battle with 16-7 offensive rebounds. The truth is that
the Nets barely try to shoot from the inside (23.1% + 12.1% of volume
inside vs 21.4% + 32.9% of volume outside). So, I expect the Thunder to
not get overpowered inside and manage to have a better rebounding night.
Oklahoma City is also 5th in the league in defending 3pts shots and so,
I believe the Nets offense are into some problems tonight against a
focused Thunder team.
Oklahoma City will try to attack the poor rim defense of the Nets,
who is allowing 65% FG at the rim this season and looking at the fact
that the Thunder are #1 in the league in offensive ISO plays, especially
with Durant, and looking at #25 New Jersey defense in this kind of
plays while allowing 0.86 PPP, I expect Oklahoma City to be able to
score comfortably against the poor Nets defense. I expect the Thunder to
play well on a strong bounce back spot for them and to comfortably beat
a team who is clearly worse than them. I expect Oklahoma City to make a
clear defensive effort tonight, making the Nets struggle on offense and
so, I came up with a totals projection of 194 points, low enough for me
to take the under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Oklahoma City Thunder (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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