NBA 2014-15 Regular Season: Golden State Warriors

DISCLAIMER: This article is more for “entertainment” purposes rather than handicapping purposes. The limits on my kind of bets is too small and if you have the conviction that a specific team is going to exceed expectations in the upcoming NBA season, it’s a lot better to bet consistently on that team in the games throughout the season. Therefore, this article is just the purpose of talking about a “fun bet” and also preview some teams.

Golden State Warriors

The sportsbooks put the Warriors’ season total wins line at the same level of their regular season record last year: 51-31! So, the key question for the Warriors is easy to formulate: will Golden State do better this season than they did last season? In my opinion, this will be a clear yes!

First of all, Golden State really deserved a better record last season than 51-31, as if we use the Pythagorean wins-losses, the Warriors should have had a 54-28 record last season. Under the wing of Mark Jackson, Golden State had an underrated defense, as they were ranked #4 in the league with a 102.6 defensive rate. This is exactly the best thing Mark Jackson did as the Warriors’ coach, while this will be Steve Kerr’s biggest challenge this season. However, I can’t simply ignore that Mark Jackson had at his disposal Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in the roster. With these quality individual defenders available, this helped the team’s defensive system a lot!

If I think the defense will remain pretty much at the same level this season, I believe that Golden State will suffer great improvements on offense. Having in account that Golden State ended last season as the #4 best team in the league in 3pts% with a nice 38%, it’s incredible how the Warriors’ had a “mediocre” offense by being just #12 in the league with 107.5 offensive rates. This was where Mark Jackson did a bad coaching job last season that probably cost his job. I can’t forget the several times that I witnessed Mark Johnson ordering post up plays for Harrison Barnes when he had a small defender on him, ignoring the fact that Barnes is still very raw offensively. The result of that was Barnes losing all his confidence and having a poor sophomore season.

Now with Steve Kerr as the team’s coach, I expect them to have a huge leap on offense! Of course Kerr lacks experience as a coach, but I like his ideas for the team in the upcoming season. The Warriors also signed coach Alvin Gentry to Kerr’s coaching staff and this gives me enough confidence to think that Golden State will definitely have a sharper offense this season. This won’t be a surprise, as Golden State’s frontcourt has Andrew Bogut, David Lee and Andre Iguodala, who are all good passers and therefore, the Warriors’s starting unit has all the conditions to have an excellent ball movement.

Injuries can always be a problem and the truth is that Andrew Bogut missed 15 games last season, while Andre Iguodala and David Lee missed 19 and 13 games respectively. However, the Warriors were still a competitive team even with these injuries. The Warriors added Shaun Livingston to their roster and this will give Steve Kerr more flexibility on the lineups, as Livingston is a plus defender and his size will cause matchup problems to their opponents.

Therefore, I wouldn’t be surprised if Golden State has 55 wins on this upcoming regular season and ends up fighting for home court edge in the first round of the playoffs.

MLB Free Premium Play 10/02

MLB Pick #1: 901 Detroit Tigers @ 902 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs. C. Tillman)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 901 Detroit Tigers ML @ -109 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

For this first game of the series, I feel that the Tigers have a better “spot” than BAL and more importantly, they have a considerable edge on the mound working for them today.

I expect DET to be “sharper” in handling this contest… they had a tight battle against KC for the division title in which every game mattered, while BAL even though they could have grabbed home court edge through the playoffs, they didn’t put much focus on it as they finished the regular season 3-5 L8 games and failed to hit .200 or more in the L4 games!

Regarding the matchups, I expect BAL’s SP Chris Tillman to have some problems facing DET’s lineup.

Tillman enjoyed a nice 2nd half season w/ 2.33 ERA but as usual w/ him, his advanced stats were a bit worse: 3.38 ERA & 3.48 xFIP! His month of September wasn’t that good and this a bad sign b/c of his L6 opponents TOR, BOS, NYY, BOS, CIN & MIN, only the Twins were a good offense in this second half of season! After some slumps and w/ a healthier Miguel Cabrera, DET’s offense was back in track and finished the month of September being #2 top ranked offense in the league!

On the other end, DET’s SP Max Scherzer also enjoyed a fine 2nd half of season w/ 2.87 ERA! However, unlike Tillman, his advanced numbers are supporting such stellar ERA number: 2.70 FIP & 3.12 xFIP! Note also that unlike Tillman, Scherzer faced some tough matchups lately by facing twice MIN, twice KC, CLE & CWS.  All these teams were in the top15 offense in the 2nd half! Finally, unlike Tillman, Scherzer didn’t face the Orioles this season (Tillman had one start vs. DET early in the season) and so, I expect Scherzer to be better than Tillman today. Obviously, the bullpen could be a problem for the Tigers, but we are getting Scherzer w/ nice rest so this potential problem might appear in the series for DET but not now!

Soccer Premier League Free Premium Card 09/21

Soccer Pick #1: Leicester City vs. Manchester United

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 2.75 Goals @ -102 / 1.98 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -103 / 1.97 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

Ihad a small lean w/ Man Utd today but this -1 AH line seems just right and I’ve decided to make a play w/ OVER.

Man Utd is coming from their first win of the season against QPR in a game where they changed their formation for a more traditional 4-3-1-2 diamond formation and more importantly, they have added some new players: Rojo, Blind, Herrera returned after an injury and obviously Di Maria.

Their offensive flow was great and all players looked more comfortably on the field. It also helped the fact that Young, Fletcher and Valencia were all dropped off the team as I’m not a fan of those 3 players. Herrera is a key player for them because his build up action through the middle is unique for the team (Cleverly and Fletcher aren’t capable of doing that build up stuff).

 However, it helped the fact that they were playing against QPR who looked terrible (once again)! Leicester City is way a better team right now than QPR! They are well organized, they attack from the wings and they have a serviceable striker who is really making some damage in the Premier League. They already have faced 3 top teams this season (Everton, Arsenal & Chelsea) and in all those 3 games, they had a positive mindset trying to score goals. They managed to score vs. Everton & Chelsea at home and they had a HUGE chance to score vs. Chelsea in the first half. I expect them to keep having this mindset today vs. Man Utd, so this contest will be fun to watch.

I’m not sold in Man Utd’s defensive consistency… QPR had some good chances last week against them but missed it all. Man Utd could win today, but I think that Leicester City will give a great fight w/ both teams scoring goals. Therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.

Soccer Pick #2: Tottenham vs. W.B.A

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Tottenham (-1) @ -113 / 1.88 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I expect Tottenham to easily dismantle WBA today…

After being humiliated by Liverpool at home, the Spurs went to Sunderland and got one point after drawing 2-2. They deserved to win that game as they created several chances to score and outplayed Sunderland for the majority of the time. They played midweek one Europa League game but Mauricio Pochettino rested some key players in that game, so the Spurs will be “fresh” for today’s game.

I’ve faded WBA in the last 2 rounds against Everton and Swansea City with nice success and I see no reason to stop fading them against teams w/ good firepower on the front.

Soccer Pick #3: Everton vs. Crystal Palace

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Crystal Palace (+1.25) @ -121 / 1.82 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

Unlike Totenham for example, Everton’s boss Roberto Martinez decided to field their best possible lineup in Europa’s League match against Wolfsburg this past Thursday, and I think that this might turn against him today vs. Crystal Palace. Everton has several players injured and therefore, it’s hard for him to rotate his players but I suspect of Everton’s energy level for today (Seamus Coleman and Leighton Baines picked up some minor injuries vs. Wolfsburg).

Everton’s defensive problems have been well noticed early on the season:  teams are averaging 12.3 total shots per game & 4.3 shots on target/game against them!

After losing the first 2 games of the season, Palace got 2 draws in L2 rounds vs. Newcastle & Burnley while Head Coach Neil Warnock is developing his team. They have some great pace on the front w/ Campbell, Gayle and/or Zaha and I think that they take advantage of the Everton’s poor defensive display so far in the season.

I think that we should be dealing w/ a pure -1 goals line, so I’m taking this +1.25 goals line for Crystal Palace.

Soccer Pick #3: Manchester City vs. Chelsea

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 2.75 Goals @ -116 / 1.86 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -120 / 1.83 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

Tactical battle in here! Both teams played midweek in the Champions League – few time to recover fitness levels @100%! With Chelsea having a nice 5-pts advantage in the standings over Man City, I expect them to be patient in this contest like they had last season – that’s why they were the only team to win @Man City ground in the last season! We should be dealing w/ a classic 2.5 goals line!

Soccer Premier League Free Premium Card 09/20

Soccer Pick #1: Aston Villa vs. Arsenal

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Arsenal (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

Aston Villa has been one of the biggest surprises of the league so far, but I feel that Arsenal’s is a bad matchup for them, especially by playing at home where they are “obliged” to take a more pro-active mindset instead of laying back for the 90 minutes.

Villa has been playing without a pure striker on the front and using the wings as their primary source of offense. In the last week against Liverpool:

Attacking from the left side: 40%
Attacking from the middle: 17%
Attacking from the right side: 43%

Arsenal is a bit vulnerable from the wings as their full-backs are extremely offensive minded. Mathieu Debuchy is OUT for today and most likely Calum Chambers will start on his place. This is good news for Arsenal b/c Chambers is more committed to defense and so, the Gunners won’t be such exposed on the right-back.

Villa’s defensive organization is great and they held Liverpool scoreless at home – a great accomplishment! However, Liverpool’s attack was way “too static” with little to no movement until Sterling entered in the field. Balotelli definitely isn’t Suarez and his off-movement stuff is limited, Markovic is still learning and adjusting to the Premier League and the Reds struggled to generate movement on the front. This won’t happen today w/ Arsenal!

Soccer Pick #2: Burnley vs. Sunderland

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Sunderland (+0.25) @ -120 / 1.83 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -125 / 1.80 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

I expect this contest to be a tight battle w/ the Draw being a likely scenario and therefore, we are getting some value at this +0.25 line as long we can find @ -125 / 1.80 odds.

Burnley is a well organized team that is solid defensively. However, they don’t have much firepower on the front quality and depth-wise. This is maximized when their two best forwards Sam Vokes & Danny Ings are both OUT for today. Remember that these two players combined to score 47 goals in the last season for them in the Championship. I think that the offensive struggles will remain in display today…

Sunderland has 3 points in the table – all draws, and they are coming from a draw vs. Tottenham, although they were clearly outplayed in that game and got some lucky. Their fighting spirit has been terrific as they were trailing in all those 3 draws just to tie the game. Unlike Burnley, they are “healthy” and this could make the difference in this contest…

Soccer Pick #3: Newcastle United vs. Hull City

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Hull City (+0.25) @ +110 / 2.10 on Pinnacle Sports (OR +105 / 2.02 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

This is a pivotal game for the future of Newcastle’s head coach Alan Pardew and I doubt that Newcastle will perform at their best today with such heavy pressure “under their skins”.  Newcastle defensive line has been atrocious to say the least, just go back and watch Southampton’s goals against them to understand my statement. Offensively, they lack the proper creativity given by Siem de Jong who is injured and Papiss Demba Cissé would help them on the front w/ his speed but he is also injured and out for this contest.

Hull City will be a tough matchup for them as they are well organized defensively and don’t allow much space on the back. Their problem was on the front as they lacked some pace and “killing instinct”. The good news was that Abel Hernandez and Mohamed Diamé made their first game for them in the last round and “coincidentally”, both scored one goal in the 2-2 draw against West Ham United. With Hernandéz on the front, I think that Hull City will take advantage of the fragile mindset of Newcastle players and therefore, they don’t deserve to be such underdogs in this contest.  

Soccer Pick #4: Swansea City vs. Southampton

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Both Teams to Score @ -123 / 1.81 on Pinnacle Sports 

Detailed Write Up:

Both teams are confident and playing an exciting attacking football, I have strong lean w/ OVER 2.5 Goals but I rather prefer playing both teams to score as both teams are creating several chances to score while defensively, they are prone to commit individual errors.  

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Maribor vs. Sporting Lisbon

Soccer Pick #6: Maribor vs. Sporting Lisbon
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Sporting Lisbon (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
Detailed Write Up:

I rate the Portuguese team being better than Maribor, especially with their star defensive player Suler being OUT of this contest. Maribor will have some problems through the center of their defense because Sporting has a capable striker to cause some damage in Islam Slimani. Sporting is having some problems in their domestic league against inferior level opponents that are focused almost exclusively in defending and get a point from them. With some space to operate they are more dangerous and I expect Maribor to give some space by playing at home.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Athletic Bilbao vs. Shakhtar Donetsk

Soccer Pick #5: Athletic Bilbao vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Over 2.25 Goals @ -125 / 1.80 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -127 / 1.78 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

Like Benfica vs. Zenit from yesterday, I expect this contest to be wide open with both teams bringing a pro-active mindset to the field. The problem yesterday was that Benfica’s GK was sent off early on the game and this fact alone changed completely the dynamic of the game.

The Spanish team at home is a tough team to beat while their fanatic fans are a factor to intimidate the opposing teams. Bilbao plays an aggressive fast forward style of football so this contest will be fun to watch. I think that they are capable to score at least one goal in here. However, I also expect Shakhtar Donetsk to create some damage on the offensive end. The turmoil in Ukraine is indeed a factor, but note that the majority of the players of this team are Brazilians eager to shine in the Champions League… They want to departure from Ukraine and the Champions League is a great spot for them to “show” their skills…fortunately, they are all great technician players (Luiz Adriano, Taison, Alex Teixeira and Douglas Costa)!

Both teams will play w/ offensive mindset, both have quality on the front and therefore, I’m taking the OVER in here.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Porto vs. BATE Borisov

Soccer Pick #4: Porto vs. BATE Borisov
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Porto (-1.5) @  +101 / 2.01 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -101 / 1.99 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

After a terrible season, FC Porto is primed to make a strong bounce back in this new season as they made several good acquisitions. With a new head coach, their defense has been pretty solid to start the season while they had some problems to create chances to score especially when they field 3 central midfielders that don’t have proper creativity to create danger from the center of the midfield – I’m talking about youngster Ruben Neves, Casemiro and Herrera. However, I’ve just checked their starting XI for today and Porto will use only 2 of those players while inserting Brahimi on the center w/ Quaresma and Adrián on the wings. This is a potent offensive lineup and I really expect them to dominate BATE Borisov.  BATE isn’t as strong as the last years versions and they failed to win on the road in the qualifying rounds against inferior class opponents. Playing at home is a completely scenario for them (they look much stronger) but this isn’t the case in here and therefore, I’m taking the hosts in this contest.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Ajax vs. PSG

Soccer Pick #3: Ajax vs. PSG
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: PSG (-0.75) @ -117 / 1.85 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -117 / 1.85 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

PSG is struggling to win games on their domestic league but Ajax is a great matchup for their style of football. Unlike the majority of the French teams, this Ajax team won’t play w/ a conservative mindset trying to secure 0-0 draw… no! They will try to impose their game, control the ball possession and assuming some offensive risks… the problem is that they will be vulnerable on the back and PSG’s forwards given some space… they are deadly!

Ajax lost probably their two best players at the end of the trade deadline as Blind went to Man Utd and Siem de Jong went to Newcastle United, so this is a limited squad on the midfield right now and PSG has too many talent on the front that in a wide open game will make the difference.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Bayern Munchen vs. Manchester City

Soccer Pick #2: Bayern Munchen vs. Manchester City
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Manchester City (+1) @ -125 / 1.80 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -126 / 1.79 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

I feel that Manchester City is vastly underpriced for this contest. We are now dealing with an experienced team in UEFA’s competitions (something that they lacked some couple of years ago) and they certainly know how to play against this “tiki taka” style of football imposed by Guardiola, as they faced this Bayern team last season ,and then Barcelona in the knockout stage.

City’s head coach Manuel Pellegrini rested some players in the last weekend clash against Arsenal just to be ready for this contest. Yaya Touré was one of those players and I think that he will be a key factor for tonight’s game, because Bayern has several injured players in the midfield (Bastian Schweinsteiger, Thiago Alcantara, Javi Martinez and also Ribery is OUT as well).  With Man City having good chances to at least give some fight in the midfield battle, I expect them to be a tough matchup and therefore, this +1 line is valuable in my opinion.

Soccer Champions League 09/17 Play: Chelsea vs. Schalke 04

Soccer Pick #1: Chelsea vs. Schalke 04
Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play
Pick: Chelsea (-1.5) @ -111 / 1.90 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -112 / 1.89 on 5 Dimes)
Detailed Write Up:

We can say that this is the “public play” of the day but it’s hard to go against Chelsea right now. They are playing an exciting style of football w/ Fabregas being the playmaker, while Diego Costa is indeed making a strong impression on the front. I expect Mourinho to make some changes and rotate his players. However their depth is tremendous and players like Cech, Felipe Luiz, Ramires, Willian and/or Remy are capable players.

On the other end, Schalke 04 is heavily struggling right now. Their domestic league performance is subpar w/ one draw & 2 losses in three games. Several first team players such as Farfan, Felipe Santana, Kolasinac are injured and out for today, and more recently, their captain and leader of the defensive line Howedes is OUT as well, so I don’t think that Schalke is going to offer much resistance to the Blues.

Soccer Premier League Free Play 09/13: Manchester City @ Arsenal

Soccer Pick #1: Manchester City @ Arsenal

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Manchester City (PK) @ -131 / 1.76 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -135 / 1.74 on Bookmaker)

Detailed Write Up:

This is the earliest game of the day! We are eating some high juice in here, but I really didn’t want to take a bite on Man City (-0.25) as if the contest is tied +70min, both teams would be “happy” to get a point and therefore, this (PK) line is perfect for us in this scenario (it would be pushed).

Man City is coming from a shocking loss at home vs. Stoke City, but for us it wasn’t a complete surprise, as we faded them in that contest by taking Stoke+2. In this matchup, there are 3 key factors that will work favorably for City today:

1)      They have a more cohesive defensive line in my opinion, especially with their defensive midfield covering some ground on the wings when their wing-backs go forward. I believe that this is Arsenal’s major weakness in their roster alongside w/ striker position;

2)      Arsenal’s passing game is yet to "click" in this season… in the first 3 games they didn’t impress me at all w/ their build up game. Usually they are sharp with passes going forward but we are yet to see a solid performance from them. It looks like Aaron Ramsey is questionable/doubtful for this contest and this is a major blow for them;

3)      Most likely, Danny Welbeck will start for Arsenal, and even though he is confident right now after scoring twice for England this past week, I don’t think that he had the proper time to develop the proper chemistry w/ his teammates.

Arsenal crushed Man City in the Charity Shield 3-0, but this contest simply couldn’t be comparable to that game as Man City looked like they were still in vacations, while Arsenal was hungry to collect one more title. I think that City is the better team right now and I’m taking my chances w/ them in here.

MLB Free Premium Play 09/08

MLB Free Pick: 965 Kansas City Royals @ 966 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Guthrie vs. J. Verlander)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 966 Detroit Tigers ML @ -130 / 1.77 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

It’s a good thing that the Tigers are facing division leaders Royals today in this early contest, because they will take the game “seriously” and therefore, the potential letdown spot of playing @SNB yesterday and then early today will be dissipated in my opinion.

I’m fading once again KC’s SP Jeremy Guthrie after losing an “OVER” play on his last start vs. TEX. In that game, Guthrie managed to allow just 1 ER in 7 IP’s despite allowing 9 hits and striking out just one batter. He has been ultra inconsistent lately alternating good starts with some truly awful ones. In the L6 games he was solid against TEX twice and ARI… well, these two offenses are ranked #28 & #29 in the league in this second half season, so he took advantage of the fact that he enjoyed favorable matchups. Certainly, this won’t be the case today with the Tigers.

On the other end, we have DET’s SP Verlander on the mound… we can’t expect anything “special” from him as he is far from the pitcher he used to be. He is coming from a tough start vs. #2 offense in the league in CLE in which he allowed 6 ER’s in 6.2 IP’s. However note that he had a nice 7/1 K/BB ratio and actually, he had 21 K’s on his L3 starts - a good sign for him! He had some “personal stuff” going on in the internet in the last week… I expect him to be more focused today and therefore, I see some value w/ DET today.

MLB Free Premium Play 09/03

MLB Free Pick: 909 New York Mets @ 910 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: J. deGrom vs. T. Koehler)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Under 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

The first 2 games of this series were pure slugfests w/ 15 and 14 runs scored and we couldn’t be happier as we cashed our OVER play quite easily yesterday. However, for tonight I think that this will turn into a “Pitchers duel” and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here.

NYM’s SP Jacob deGrom has been consistently lately as he finished August w/ pretty underrated stats line of 3.42 ERA, 3.05 FIP & 3.07 xFIP! He already has faced MIA twice this season and was great in both starts w/ just one ER allowed in 14 innings!

On the other end, MIA’s SP Tom Koehler is coming from b2b decent starts on the road @COL & @ATL. This is a good sign for him due to his heavy struggles on the road this season because at home, Koehler has been excellent this season w/ 2.69 ERA + 3.28 FIP + 3.98 xFIP!

We are looking for two underrated young Pitchers that I expect to perform quite well lately and will be a tough matchup for these offenses.

MLB Free Premium Play 09/02

MLB Free Pick: 971 Los Angeles Angels @ 972 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: C. Wilson vs. B. Peacock)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 9 @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

LAA’s SP C.J. Wilson is coming from 3 quality starts in which he allowed 3, 1 & 1 ER’s but his pheripals didn’t improve at all: high pitch count numbers & poor K/BB ratios. In those 3 starts he couldn’t reach the 7th IP and had a pedestrian 10/10 K/BB.

However, I feel that he faced some favorable matchups as suddenly the A’s couldn’t hit while the Red Sox offense has been struggling for a long time. This can’t be said about this HOU lineup that is elite vs. LHP’s this season – I have them ranked #3 in the league! This is a bad matchup for him…

On the other end, I expect the Angel’s offense to produce some runs off B. Peacock. Like Wilson, Peacock faced OAK on his last start, and even though he managed to allow just 1 ER in 5.1 IP’s of work note that he walked 5 (!) batters! I don’t think that he will have such “luck” against this LAA potent lineup.  

MLB Free Premium Play 08/31

MLB Pick: 951 Philadelphia Phillies @ 952 New York Mets

(Starting Pitchers: A. Burnett vs. D. Gee)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 951 Philadelphia Phillies ML @ +110 / 2.10 on 5 Dimes

Detailed Write Up:

My fair line for this contest is the Phillies being slight favorites, so we are getting some value w/ PHI IMO.

PHI’s SP A. Burnett has been highly inconsistent in this season. After a rough 4-starts stretch, he looked decent against the Mariners even though he allowed 5 ER’s in that start. However, his 9 K’s mark was a good sign for the future, and indeed he dominated on his last start vs. good WAS lineup w/ 7 strong innings in which he allowed just 1 ER and had a great 12/1 K/BB mark.

He already has faced the Mets 3 different times this season and struggled mightily in every start (he allowed 5, 7 & 5 ER’s in those starts), so I’m expecting him to have some revenge in this matchup today and perform quite well against this NYM lineup that is struggling to score runs lately - I have them being dead last (#30) in L7 days in the league.

On the other end, NYM’s SP Dilon Gee has been on my “fade list” radar in this second half of season. His 5.14 FIP & 4.45 xFIP numbers in 2nd half is a good indicator of how poorly he has pitched lately. His poor 1.79 K/BB ratio is another poor sign for him. PHI current roster is batting .296 BA & .890 OPS!

Unlike NYM’s offense, PHI’s offense has been decent lately while facing some of the best pitchers in the league. Yesterday, they faced the red-hot B. Colon and still, they pounded him w/ 6 runs! With Pitching & offensive edges, I’m taking the Phillies today!

Soccer Free Premium Play: 08/30

Soccer Pick: Swansea City vs. W.B.A.

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Swansea City (-0.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -116 / 1.86 on 5 Dimes)

Detailed Write Up:

I expect W.B.A. to have a similar approach as of the last week’s game @Southampton: conservative mindset, gave the ball possession to the opponent (Saints had 58% ball poss. in that game) and try to make danger w/ quick counter attacks using the speed of Ideye on the front.

That plan “worked” as W.B.A. got a point so I would be surprised if suddenly they bring a pro-active game plan for this contest.

Swansea City has been a nice surprise in this season w/ 2 wins in the first 2 games. Note that I was not impressed w/ their second half performance against Burnley in the last week as Burnley could easily tied the game w/ better finishing on the front. The difference between Swansea and Southampton is that the Welsh side has a better offensive flow right now. They attack from both wings, they have a pure striker on the front in Bony and Sigurdsson is looking great playing behind him. While Southampton struggled to create build ups plays vs. packed W.B.A. defensive line, I think that Swansea’s well oiled offensive machine won’t have such problems and will win this contest.

MLB Free Premium Play #2 08/27

MLB Pick: 963 Colorado Rockies @ 964 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: F. Morales vs. T. Hudson)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7 @ -105 / 1.95 on Boomaker

Detailed Write Up:

My fair line for this contest is a 7.5/8 runs, so we are getting some edge at this 7-runs total line.

I understand that the first 2 contests of this series went bellow the total posted but I think that both matchups will dictate a high scoring game.

The Giants are hitting relatively well vs. LHP’s lately w/ .319 BA in L10 games while they are ranked in a respectable #8 spot for the season.

We won a play w/ MIA by fading COL’s SP Franklin Morales:

“I’m fading COL’s SP F. Morales because he has been simply awful for quite some time! His 5.32 FIP & 5.31 xFIP numbers in the second half of season says it all along w/ a truly terrible 12.7% BB% rate! MIA lineup has been more patient lately by being ranked #3 in the league in BB% w/ 9.3%. I expect them to put some runs in the score.”

He didn’t “disappoint” us as he allowed 6 ER’s in just 4  IP’s of work! He is on my fade list alert, so I’m just keeping riding the bus.

On the other side, SF’s SP Tim Hudson is a bit of a slump in the second half of season. His 4.41 FIP & 4.17 xFIP numbers says it all, especially when we compare with his 1st half numbers: 3.19 FIP & 3.35 xFIP! His command has been poor lately w/ only 11 K’s on his L5 starts and therefore, I think that even the dreadful COL lineup (on the road obviously) could get some production in this matchup.

MLB Free Premium Play 08/27

MLB Free Pick #1: 965 Texas Rangers @ 966 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: C. Lewis vs. E. Ramirez)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Over 7.5 @ +100 / 2.00 on Betonline

Detailed Write Up:

My fair line for this contest is 8-runs so we are getting some value in my opinion w/ OVER @ plus money. This series has been a low scoring one w/ the first 2 games going bellow the total posted, but I think that both offenses will have some edge vs. SP’s in this matchup.

TEX SP’s Colby Lewis has been ultra inconsistent lately w/ some high pitch count numbers on his L3 starts. His problems vs. LH batters this season are well noticed as he is allowing LH bats to have .352 BA + .406 wOBA against him! Now, here’s SEA lineup for today:

1. Austin Jackson (R) CF

2. Dustin Ackley (L) LF

3. Robinson Cano (L) DH

4. Kendrys Morales (S) 1B

5. Kyle Seager (L) 3B

6. Mike Zunino (R) C

7. Logan Morrison (L) RF

8. Chris Taylor (R) SS

9. Brad Miller (L) 2B

6 LH batters on the lineup! This SEA lineup is a bad matchup for him and no wonder, Lewis had some problems vs. SEA on his 3 starts against them this season by allowing 5, 3 & 4 ER’s!

On the other side, SEA will send Erasmo Ramirez to the mound and he is basically just filling a spot for them to give some rest to SEA’s elite SP’s. Ramirez’ numbers in this season aren’t that good w/ 4.06 ERA, 5.15 FIP & 4.67 xFIP! TEX struggled in the first 2 games of the series because they have faced 2 young LHP’s who are pitching well lately in Elias and Paxton. The same cannot be said about Ramirez and therefore, I also expect them to put some runs in the scoreboard in this contest.

MLB Free Premium Play 08/23

MLB Pick #1: 981 Baltimore Orioles @ 982 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs. K. Hendricks)

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: 981 Baltimore Orioles ML @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker

Detailed Write Up:

BAL’s SP Bud Norris has been great lately w/ a nice run of 4 straight quality outings. Note that he faced some tough matchups in those starts like LAA, TOR & CWS – all dangerous lineups and still he looked pretty good.

His K% numbers have been excellent in this second half of season w/ 22.4% K% mark vs. 16.5% in this second half of season and this is good news for him because CHC lineup has been a “K machine” for quite some time – I have them ranked dead last (#30) in the league in L30 days w/ an abysmal 26.0% K% mark!

BAL will face K. Hendricks who has been pretty good as well. However his advanced numbers are screaming for some regression as his 1.66 ERA does not match his 3.54 FIP & 3.85 xFIP numbers!  BAL offense was shut down by J. Arrieta last night and they are looking to bounce back today – they are ranked #6 in L14 days, so I expect them to do some damage in here.

Soccer Free Premium Play 08/23: Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Soccer Pick #1: Premier League - Newcastle @ Aston Villa

Rating: 3 units - Single Dime Play

Pick: Newcastle (+0.25) @ -128 / 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports (OR -130 / 1.77 on Betonline)

Detailed Write Up:

(Note that this contest is going to be played @7:45 AM EST / 1:45PM CET!)

We’ve lost our Top Play of the first round w/ Stoke City against Aston Villa. Villa probably deserved to win as they were more astute tactically and shut the doors to Stoke’s attack once they grabbed the lead. Their defense was well organized and they defended w/ plenty of men leaving Gabriel Agbonlahor alone on the front. This conservative style of play is “perfect” to be displayed on the road and when they scored their goal early on the second half, they were pretty comfortable w/ using a deep defensive line ready to absolve Stoke’s offensive waves.

The problem is that by playing at home, Villa are “pressured” to use a more offensive style – something that they tend to struggle especially without their two top forwards in Benteke and Libor Kozák.

Newcastle United was a nice surprise against the champions Man City. They lost 0-2 but they were not that far from squeezing a draw in that game. Their new signings (especially Cabella and Riviere) were dynamic and Newcastle showed some great speed on the front w/ their mobile forwards. Like Villa did in Round 1 against Stoke City, Newcastle can be pretty dangerous on the counter. Villa didn’t concede much space on the back vs. Stoke City, but by playing at home in front of their fans, they will use a more offensive style and therefore, Newcastle will enjoy some space after recovering the ball.

Aston Villa struggled badly at home in the last season and by using the same exact style of play, I wouldn’t be surprised if those home struggles carry on for this new season.

Newcastle (PK) has some value but I like more the +0.25 AH line as long as the line is “better”  than -135 / 1.71, so I’m taking the visitors in this contest.