NBA - 709 Indiana Pacers @ 710 Chicago Bulls
Projected line: Chicago by 6 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Looking
at the last 4 games of Chicago, it looks like we are in front of the
best offensive team in the league. Even with them being shorthanded,
especially without their 2nd leading scorer Deng, the Bulls had no
problems in scoring in those games, with offrates of 132.8, 121.8, 110.4
and 137.9, for an average of 125.7! In
fact, they are already the 2nd most efficient offense in the league,
right behind Miami! This is very likely the main reason why we have a
tremendous line movement towards the over in here. However, I don't
believe this trend will continue today, as Indiana is not even close at
the same defensive level of the Bulls last four opponents: they are much
better! Chicago faced Phoenix, Cleveland, Charlotte and New Jersey in
their last four games and these four teams have the following defensive
rankings: Phoenix #19 with 105.1 defrates, Cleveland #22 with 106.8
defrates, Charlotte #28 with 110.8 defrates and New Jersey #30 with
114.1 defrates! On the other side, Indiana is #6 with 100.3 defrates!
More than being bad defensive team, these four teams simply aren't
athletic enough to hang on against the powerful squad of the Bulls and
therefore, Chicago simply ran all over them! Note that even "the white
mamba" Brian Scalabrine was able to play some minutes in those games and
even had some nice points! The athletic edge was so evident that
Chicago destroyed them even while being shorthanded! This won't surely
happen today against the Pacers! Indiana is like Chicago, a team with a
great "motor" in both ends of the floor. On offense, they don't shoot
very well, but they are a very aggressive team, as they crash the boards
(#3 in the league in offensive rebounds with 29.60% offensive rebound
rates - Chicago is #1 with 31,84% by the way) and attack the rim in
order to go to the FT line (10# in FT rates). With them being on a back
to back spot after losing at home against the Magic last night, I don't
expect the Pacers to have a good shooting night, as Chicago is still the
best defensive team in the league!
The main difference will really be between the Pacers defense and
the Bulls offense. Indiana is the best spot up defense in the league by
allowing just 0.79 PPP! This will be the first official game after the
playoffs series last season between these two teams and therefore, I
expect this game to have a special feeling for Indiana!
Note that these two teams faced each other in the preseason and if we
look at the minutes played by the starters, we realize that those games
were treated like they were regular season games and in both games, both
defenses ruled with combined offensive rates of just 182 and 180!
Chicago
continues to be shorthanded and for the first time, they will face a
team who can bring problems to them. No Gibson means that Scalabrine
will have to play some minutes and in my opinion, Scalabrine doesn't
have legs anymore to for example play against the motor of Hansbrough!
Deng is probably Chicago's best defensive player and his absence will
give some space for Granger to breathe! I believe Indiana has conditions
to make this game really tough for the Bulls and therefore, I will take
Indiana on this large spread tonight.
Looking at the specific matchup, I believe both teams will
bring their best defensive effort tonight and this means great defense
will be played tonight! I expect this game to be played on a slow pace,
with both defenses getting the upperhand over their opponent's offense
and so, I came up with a totals projection of 177 points, low enough for
me to take the under in here in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 187,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Indiana Pacers (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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