NBA Free Premium Play 05/21: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City  at San Antonio

NBA - 507 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 508 San Antonio Spurs Play #1 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** I knew that Scott Brooks would try to surprise the Spurs in Game 1, but he really “tried” too much by playing some bizarre lineups especially w/ Durant @ center position! Without Ibaka, OKC is in a tough spot against this Spurs’ machine, but it was pretty clear for me that they don’t have a chance in playing small ball vs. SAS. The Spurs scored at will @ paint w/ 66 points in the paint & 24-27 FG at the rim! When Brooks decided to go “ultra small”, the Spurs’ offense simply exploded! The only bright spot for OKC in that game was in the third quarter: “That starting lineup did a good job in that third quarter,” Brooks said. “We were up one with four minutes to go. By playing with a lot of toughness on the defensive end and using our athleticism and our speed on the offensive end. That’s always a good recipe for our success, playing defensively with good hands, good toughness, the physicality that it takes to stop a very good offensive team like San Antonio.” OKC played their starting lineup for the first 9 minutes of the quarter and they held SAS’ offense to just 14 points in a 9-minutes span! IMO, this will be the blueprint for OKC tonight – they will try to win tonight via their defense and not by outscoring the Spurs. I expect OKC to play less small ball tonight as S. Adams will more than the 17 minutes logged in G1. Obviously, by playing “big”, OKC offense will be “easier” to defend as the Spurs’ defense will be almost exclusively focused in stopping Durant & Westbrook. I expect tonight’s contest to be played @ slower pace (NOTE: that 3rd quarter in G1 was the slowest paced quarter of the game, which is a good sign for this G2). I also expect Scott Brooks to ride his starting lineup a bit longer @ first & third quarter and so, I’m playing w/ Under FIRST QUARTER (once again) & UNDER FULL TIME as well. NOTE: Split the wager! Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 53.5 FIRST QUARTER @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 211 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 04/27: San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks

San Antonio  at Dallas

NBA - 747 San Antonio Spurs @ 748 Dallas Mavericks ***FREE Premium Play*** DAL’s head coach Rich Carlisle was fantastic in the first two games of the series, but especially in the last game, the Spurs really couldn’t play any worse. First of all, we should understand that at the end of the third quarter, the Mavericks had scored 88 points while shooting 50.7% FG & 6-14 from 3pts (42.9% mark). However, the Spurs were even better offensively by shooting 56.5% FG & 8-14 from 3pts (57.1% mark), but still, they were trailing by 13 points! Turnovers!!! SAS committed 21 TO’s in the first 3 quarters of the game and they were outrebounded as well – obviously, I have to give some props to DAL but really, the majority of those TO’s were the result of some incredible sloppy play from the Spurs! Turnovers & Rebounding is something really “easy” to fix, so I expect SAS to bounce back today in these two key areas. In that game, everything went well for the Mavericks. They couldn’t miss mid range jumpers…Shawn Marion was hitting three pointers… B. Wright battled foul trouble, and so Carlisle was “forced” to play D. Blair and Blair was just tremendous w/ 3-6 FG for 8 points + 7 rebounds and 4 steals in just 14 minutes of action! DAL played small ball and won the game… I expect SAS to be more “ready” for this contest while their biggest problem in G2 is pretty easy to fix and so, I’m taking the Spurs in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 747 San Antonio Spurs (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 04/20: Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs

Dallas  at San Antonio

NBA - 709 Dallas Mavericks @ 710 San Antonio Spurs Play #2 & #3 There is no question that the Spurs are the better team in here and will advance to the second round unless something “strange” happens. However, for the first game of the series, I really think that R. Carlisle will surprise the Spurs w/ a proper game plan that will make the Mavs competitive today. Plain and simple, the Mavs can’t run w/ the Spurs! In the last H2H game between these two teams, the Spurs won the game by 9 points primarily because they scored 35 fast break points! It was the Spurs’ highest mark of the regular season, so it was a clear sign for DAL and Carlisle knows that… In the last games of the regular season, Carlisle made some interesting changes to their lineup that really worked well for them. He decided to not give big minutes to Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert because their lack of speed was hurting their defense… that’s why both players logged only 17 & 14 minutes vs. PHX and even against MEM in the last game (OT game!), they played only 27 and 11 minutes! With both slow footed players on the court and playing major minutes, SAS will just kill the Mavs’ via PNR’s w/ Parker and their “bigs”… that’s one of the biggest reasons why the Spurs swept DAL 4-0 in the regular season! I expect DAL to give more minutes to D. Harris and B. Wright in this series and this can be a factor for today’s game – surprise factor working favorably for DAL! DAL’s improved defense and different rotation will be their “best weapon” vs. SAS especially in this first contest and that’s why I’m taking DAL & Under in here as my Single Dime Plays! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Dallas Mavericks (+9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/31: San Antonio Spurs @ Indiana Pacers

San Antonio  at Indiana

NBA - 733 San Antonio Spurs @ 734 Indiana Pacers Play #1 "We've done what you do," West said. "We've had team meetings. We've had players-only meetings. We've had players and the coaches (meetings). We're kind of looking for answers right now, and things don't get any easier." The Pacers are really struggling lately and they will face tonight, a Spurs’ team that is simply in another level right now. IND’s problems aren’t the usual “lack of effort or desire”. Note that despite all these late struggles, IND’s defense has been consistently great! They are playing their usual brand of excellent defensive basketball! However, the same thing can’t be said about their offense. IND just can’t get deep post positions in a consistent basis, they aren’t “screening” well and they are struggling to hit outside shots. Lowly teams have been able to hang around w/ them because they can defend decently the Pacers’ offense. On the other end, SAS can beat a franchise record tonight if they defeat the Pacers. Unlike the Pacers, we have a confident team w/ a second unit that can easily outscore their opponents’ starting lineups. In the first H2H game between these two teams, the Pacers went to SAS and beat the Spurs 111-100! They scored 111 points… Why? Well, w/ just 26 points in the paint + 26 FTM’s, the Pacers hit: 5-12 FG (42%) from 10-15 feet 11-18 FG (61%) from 16-23 feet 9-19 3pts (47.4%) That was the time when Paul George couldn’t miss mid/long range jumpers…time has changed and for tonight I expect some payback from the Spurs. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 733 San Antonio Spurs (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/22: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

San Antonio  at Golden State

NBA - 515 San Antonio Spurs @ 516 Golden State Warriors Play #3 Even when the Spurs couldn’t shoot from the outside (5-25 3pts), they were able to score 99 points @SAC last night mostly because they didn’t commit TO’s (just 9) and went 27x to the FT line. The Spurs held the Kings to just 79 points last night for their best defensive performance from a while but they were dealing with a selfish team that that is averaging 16 assists per game in L4 games. Tonight’s contest will feature two of the best passing teams in the league right now and so, I expect them to create plenty of good looking shots. GSW is averaging 25 assists per game in L9 games, they are also hitting 10 treys per game in L7 and their transition game has been super solid. I don’t have to speak much of the Spurs…their offensive flow is incredible and their continuity between first and second units is unique in the NBA. Most likely, Duncan won’t play tonight and usually, the Spurs plays “faster” without him! GSW will catch the Spurs in a b2b spot, so I expect them to push the pace and wear down the Spurs so we are dealing w/ a potential run and gun game, and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 03/11: San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls

San Antonio  at Chicago

NBA - 559 San Antonio Spurs @ 560 Chicago Bulls Play #4 & #5 CHI is coming from a sequence of games in which they have faced mostly teams that play @ slow pace - NYK, BKN, DET (isn’t’ a slow paced team), MEM & MIA and obviously, this worked favorably for them! However, the Spurs are a completely different animal, and they will bring a style that CHI isn’t used to and will struggle heavily IMO to defend the Spurs’ well oiled offense! SAS is now healthy, they have the best record in the league and offensively wise, they are just killing the league right now due to their great tempo, great offensive flow and great continuity between the starting unit and their second unit. CHI is a great defensive team but they don’t have the proper depth to hang around w/ SAS for the full 48-minutes of the game. In the first H2H game between these two teams, I had one of my biggest plays of the season w/ CHI+8 and they won the game outright! However, note that SAS was playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, a b2b spot w/ their 2 previous games being against MIA & HOU – tough physical spot vs. rested CHI team! More importantly, please note for the Spurs’ starting lineup in that game: Parker + De Colo + Jeffers + Ayres + Duncan! Yep! The current Spurs’ team is healthy and they are prepared to have some revenge of that loss. I’m taking the Spurs for an easy win in a relatively high scoring game as I also expect CHI to score some points near the basket via Noah & Gibson. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 559 San Antonio Spurs (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 559/560 Over 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Plays 01/26: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

San Antonio  at Miami

NBA - 801 San Antonio Spurs @ 802 Miami Heat Play #1 & #2 Well, this is just a regular season game w/ two banged up teams, so I don’t think that the “revenge” spot for SAS will make any different regarding the final outcome of this contest. In my opinion, what really matters is that the Heat enjoyed 2 full days off to rest and prepare the following game for the first time in more than 10 days! (01/15 game @WAS was their last “good physical spot”). MIA defense hasn’t been good this season and w/ fatigue being a major problem for them lately, they really couldn’t rotate properly on the defensive end. This might change today w/ more time to rest and w/ D. Wade back because as inconsistent as Wade is on defense, he is really a big upgrade over R. Allen. SAS is having some problems in taking care the ball as they’ve committed 15, 17 and 22 TO’s in L3 games and this is a big concern when facing the Heat’s ball pressure defense, so I expect MIA to finally having a decent defensive performance today. The real X factor for this contest is related w/ LeBron James! SAS is playing without K. Leonard & D. Green – their two best defensive perimeter players! LeBron James is almost impossible to be stopped, but for today he will have a great matchup advantage to explore and this will be good enough for MIA b/c LeBron will (as always) make the right plays. I expect this contest to be a relatively slow paced game and this will make the difference w/ Totals IMO. My fair line for this contest is 200 points so besides playing the Heat, I’m also playing the Under in here as well as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Miami Heat (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/22: Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City  at San Antonio

NBA - 719 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 720 San Antonio Spurs Play #6 Yes I know…Kevin Durant… But OKC had only 16 assists last night of their 42 FGM’s – just 38.1% assist/rate%! According to mysynergysports, OKC had 11 Isolation plays last night and went 9-10 FG for an incredible 1.91 PPP in those plays! Durant is playing in an unbelievable level but he can’t win alone @SAS, especially w/ OKC having such tough schedule as of late: @MEM, @HOU, vs. GSW, vs. SAC, vs. POR and tonight in b2b spot @SAS. SAS has an awful record vs. top teams this season, so we can expect them to be fired up while Popovich will explore the individual matchup between Tony Parker vs. R. Jackson! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 720 San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/23: Cleveland Cavaliers @ San Antonio Spurs

Cleveland  at San Antonio

NBA - 715 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 716 San Antonio Spurs Play #7 Cleveland's game yesterday at New Orleans was super bizarre. The Cavaliers struggled on the first quarter so much that they used 11(!) players during that quarter! The Cavaliers' offense is now settled into being just a bunch of pick and rolls via Jarrett Jack, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. However, they were incredible efficient on this kind of players with 11-19 FG and 1.00 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays! This is why they only had 15 assists on 41 FG made! The only positive point of that factor was that the Cavaliers' big men were more involved on the offense. San Antonio just keeps on winning and they won last night at Memphis, on a game where they were benefited with Marc Gasol's injury, something that allowed them to attack the basket with 56 points in the paint and 18-25 FG at the rim. The Spurs' elite defense won't have a problem with the Cavaliers' predictable offense tonight, as they are a top 5 team on pick and roll ball handler defense. On the other side, the Spurs offense has been playing well, but Tim Duncan continues to struggle on his shooting. A back to back spot won't be easy for him and so, the Spurs will be too dependent from their perimeter play once again. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Game Preview 11/10 - San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

NBA Game Preview - San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

The Knicks had finally a good offensive game on their last game when they decided to use their small lineup once again. They had a season-high 25 assists and a season-low 12 turnovers for a great 25/12 A/TO ratio! The Knicks gained ability to stretch the floor and they had a lot of pick and pop plays with Andrea Bargnani that Charlotte couldn't defend, allowing Bargnani to shoot 11-25 FG! As always, the Knicks' offense was perimeter-oriented, but they had a proper floor spacing this time. It was very easy for the Knicks to defend Charlotte's offense, with the Bobcats having another poor 4-16 3pts on another subpar outside shooting game for them. As Charlotte has an one-dimensional offense, they had to attack the rim, but the Knicks' defense packed the paint waiting for them, heck even Andrea Bargnani had 5 blocked shots!

J.R. Smith will make his season debut today and with him, the Knicks have another crazy shooter but who will still be much better than Tim "Shoot" Hardaway Jr! The Knicks will then create some problems to San Antonio that will have Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter on the frontcourt. I believe that sooner or later Gregg Popovich will be forced to use a small lineup on his own as well. San Antonio keeps winning games, but always with some problems. Their key has been their excellent defense and they only struggled defensively at Portland. No wonder they lost that game. However, the Spurs has been struggling a bit on 3pts defense and they are indeed #30 on spot up defense and also #24 on pick and roll roll man plays! These two kind of plays are a huge part of the Knicks' offense so the Knicks offense might have an edge in here! On the other side, the Knicks' defense won't be dealing with the lowly Bobcats again. San Antonio has in Tony Parker a PG who will penetrate into the basket and force the Knicks to collapse into the paint, something that will give space to San Antonio's shooters that are much better than Charlotte's shooters! The Spurs are coming from three subpar games on this area with 4-16, 6-16 and 5-19 3pts, but I expect some improvement on this area tonight.

I have a small lean on Over in here, but the line doesn't allow me to put the trigger in here. I'll be passing on this game.

San Antonio Spurs NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	94.2	6
Offense	108.3	7
Defense	101.6	3
Rebound	47.5	29

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	53.1	2	eFG%	48.0	5
TO%	14.0	22	TO%	13.7	13
Reb%	20.5	29	Reb%	25.1	3
FT%	20.4	13	FT%	17.9	3

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	13-4	110.1	103.6
December	12-4	114.1	101.2
January	12-3	109.8	101.6
February	8-3	112.8	102.8
March	10-4	111.9	106.7
April	3-6	101.1	105.1

Five seconds was the time that the Spurs were away from winning the NBA Finals last season. Qualifying the season that the Spurs had last year just having in account these five seconds of the Game 6 in the NBA Finals would be unfair considering how brilliantly they played throughout the whole season.

One of the biggest virtues from Gregg Popovich is the fact that he keeps improving himself and he is always ready to change the team’s system regarding its current roster. The Spurs’ style of the last few years has very little in common with the years when David Robinson was still playing and the Spurs had some of the best defensive teams in league history.

In order to take advantage of Tony Parker’s prime, Gregg Popovich put the team playing on a more uptempo style by changing the Spurs into an elite offensive team. With Tim Duncan at the end of his career, the team’s defensive decline was inevitable with the Spurs being “just” #11 on defensive rating in 2010-11 and #10 in 2011-12. However, San Antonio came back into being an elite defense throughout the whole past season, with just Indiana and Memphis being better than them.

Offensively, San Antonio was more aggressive than usual. They are usually one of the best teams in the league in ball handling, but they were just #22 on Turnover rate last season. They also abandoned the idea of crashing the boards in order to get second chance points, just to be able to get back to defense as soon as possible: #29 in offensive rebound rankings, just in front of Boston.

Defensively, the Spurs were an elite team in almost every stats and it’s impossible not to associate this great team performance to Tim Duncan’s excellent season. He was solid as usual on offense and for the first time on his 16 years in the league, Duncan was able to reach the 80% FT mark! However, it was on defense that Duncan was an absolute beast and if it wasn’t just for the fact that he played “just” 30.1 minutes per game, he would have won the Defensive Player of the Year award. Also note that his mark of 2.7 blocks per game was his season best since 2003-04!

Tony Parker had a tremendous first half of the season with MVP caliber numbers of 20.8 points per game, while shooting 54% FG and 39% 3pts and dishing 7.6 assists per game. Then, he got injured, missed some games and needed some time to get back into his excellent level of the start of the season. Fortunately for the Spurs, that happened just in time for the playoffs.

The development of San Antonio’s role players was also essential for the team’s performance. Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Tiago Splitter all had breakthrough seasons that helped the team in being more consistent in both ends of the floor.

In the playoffs, the Spurs crushed the Lakers who were without an injured Kobe Bryant with four straight wins in the first round. Then, they faced the Warriors in the second round. In theory, a matchup against the Nuggets would have been tougher for the Spurs, who would struggle on boards against Denver, but that wouldn’t happen against Golden State. Still, the series was tied at 2-2 until Tony Parker played two excellent games in a row to help his team in winning the series by 4-2.

In the Western Conference finals, San Antonio faced Memphis that had taken advantage of Russell Westbrook’s season-ending injury to beat them in the previous round. Even though the Spurs swept the Grizzlies, the series wasn’t as easy as it may seem. However, the superior coaching and superior play at the PG position was enough for San Antonio to win all the four games played in the series.

In the finals against Miami, the story is known in one of the best Finals ever. San Antonio seemed to have the edge every time both teams would put a big lineup on the floor, with the floor spacing of the Spurs offense being phenomenal in allowing Danny Green to pound the Heat with 25-38 3pts on the first five games of the series! Miami eventually put a small lineup from the start of the games, something that forced Popovich to insert Manu Ginobili in the starting lineup as well. Game 6 was the big opportunity for the Spurs to win the title, even though they shot 43% FG, while Miami ended that game was a great 11-19 3pts mark! As we know, the Spurs were five seconds away from winning the title, with Popovich deciding not to foul in the last play of regular time and with the Heat eventually winning the Game 6 on overtime, the Game 7 and consequently, the series and the title.

Offseason Report:

On this offseason, the Spurs’ biggest challenge was securing the main core of players, as Manu Ginobili, Tiago Splitter and Gary Neal were all free agents on this summer.

The first step was given with Manu Ginobili, who agreed to re-sign with the Spurs on a fully guaranteed two-year contract that is worth $14 million. Then, they also re-signed Tiago Splitter on a four-year, $36 million contract. The Brazilian player had some market on the free agency, but the Spurs took the early iniciative and were able to re-sign him.

Regarding Gary Neal, he chose Milwaukee’s money and he was the only player that left the team during the off-season and that was part of the rotation last season. In order to replace him, the Spurs signed Marco Belinelli also on free agency, who had a solid season with the Bulls last season.

Besides that, San Antonio didn’t have any significant move, as it generally happens with them.

NBA Premium Play 06/20: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

NBA - 713 San Antonio Spurs @ 714 Miami Heat 

Projected Line: 180 points

***TOP PLAY***

This was the best game of this series and perhaps one of the best NBA Finals games of all time! For the first time in three games, both teams used the same lineups from the previous game, so there was no surprise factor this time, something that was decisive when Miami started Mike Miller on Game 4 and when San Antonio started Manu Ginobili on Game 5. However, unlike what happened on the previous two games, Game 6 wasn't a fast paced game, as the pace was actually more similar to the first two games of the series. Nevertheless, with just six minutes played, the score was already 18-16!

San Antonio had shot 60% FG on Game 5, so Miami's main focus for this game was on defense. Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green wouldn't be as wide open as previously on the series and that really happened, as Green struggled to find good spots and ended the game with just 1-7 FG! Lebron James's defensive assignment was to defend Tony Parker, one of the main reasons why Parker ended with an awful 6-23 FG, but that made Lebron to be far from the basket. This change of approach and defensive positioning allowed Tim Duncan to have more space down low and he just crushed the Heat during the first half with 25 points - half of the Spurs' total points! The problem is that Duncan is 37 years old and this is why he had his best regular season in years while playing just 30 minutes per game. So, this is why he couldn't sustain all the workload that he had during the first half and faded away greatly on the second half: he didn't score a single point during the fourth quarter and overtime! Duncan and Parker were so exhausted that Popovich was forced to bench them both at the start of the fourth quarter.

With Lebron being a defensive monster against Parker, the Spurs needed a second playmaker that would be Ginobili, but he struggled heavily with eight turnovers. The trade off of getting good looks on the outside versus getting more space down low worked for the Spurs on this contest, as despite having just 5-18 3pts (series low), the Spurs scored 60 points in the paint (series high)!  On Miami's side, Lebron James had a monster fourth quarter by carrying the team on his own, but he ran out of gas at the end of game, where he ended up having some help from San Antonio's poor tactical choices and Ray Allen. Once again, the Heat's offensive flow was great with Dwyane Wade on the bench, so no wonder that Wade ended the game with a huge negative team -15 points when he was on the floor. On a lineup with Lebron James and four shooters, it's much more difficult to stop the Heat because they can't overhelp the strongside to stop James's drives to the basket or Lebron will find the open guy on the weakside.

The pace factor on this series have been the following:

G1 84.19

G2 82.71

G3 85.32

G4 92.22

G5 93.39

G6 84.14

The pace of Game 6 was way slower than on the two previous games even though both teams used small lineups. In my opinion, this was due to the fact that both teams committed to not allowing transition points to their opponents and especially because both teams are incredibly tired right now. Note that the best offensive moment of the game was right on the first six minutes of the game when they scored a combined of 34 points! Unlike the previous games, we reached a moment where both teams just can't surprise the opponent and so, both teams know what to expect from their opponent, something that only creates problems to the offensive execution of both teams. Tony Parker is hobbled and being defended by Lebron James. Tim Duncan simply can't take over the game for 40 minutes, as he faded badly in the second half of the game, while Manu Ginobili is the key on this matchup, but he is being inconsistent as well. With the extra effort from Game 6, I believe San Antonio will have offensive problems on this game.

However, Miami also saw Lebron James playing 50 minutes on Game 6 and it's almost impossible for him to have a monster efficient offensive game tonight, as he'll have to spend a ton of energy while defending Tony Parker. Dwyane Wade is also banged up and he missed the start of the third quarter on Game 6 because of a swelling on his repaired left knee. So, Miami isn't on a good spot for tonight's game. If we combine that to the fact that the pace of tonight's game will be slow and similar to Game 6's pace, the tiredness of both teams and the fact that they won't have new tricks on the bag, we will have a slow paced contest in here and the offensive struggles of both teams will turn this game into a low scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Triple Dime Play: my NBA Finals Game of the Year!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 06/18: San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat

NBA - 711 San Antonio Spurs @ 712 Miami Heat 

Projected Line: 195 points | Miami by 3 points

If the Spurs were more concerned with avoiding turnovers at the start of this series in order to turn the Finals into a half court battle, this completely stopped happened on Game 5, where San Antonio became a run and gun team, where they committed a series high of 19 turnovers, but compensated that with an offensive execution. In some "wired" TV segments, Coach Popovich kept saying "don't stop the pace" and "pace, pace, pace". So, it's not a surprise that we had the following sequence of pace in these Finals: 84.19; 82.71; 85.32; 92.22; 93.39!

In order to respond to Miami's small ball, the Spurs responded with a small ball lineup as well, with Manu Ginobili starting for the first time this season! These finals are being amazing when it comes to coach, with both Coach Spoelstra and Coach Popovich to adjust very well after a loss without having to change their structure. Remember last season when Coach Scott Brooks refused to change the Thunder's lineup when it was visible that Oklahoma City couldn't play big against Miami's small lineup?

Game 5 had a bunch of runs made by both teams, but the two important runs were performed by San Antonio: 15-2 at the end of the 1st quarter, transforming a 17-17 tie into a 32-19 score; and a 19-1 run between the 3rd and the 4th quarter, when the score was 75-74 in favor of the Spurs.

San Antonio naturally changed its defensive style, not giving any space to Dwyane Wade and Lebron James, something that gave space to the role players to have good numbers and that indeed happened. Wade and James combined a total of 18 assists, with Miami shooting 11-23 3pts, after a 4-12 3pts performance on Game 4! But the X factor of Game 5 was the fact that both Wade and Lebron couldn't have good individual games, with both of them missing some weird easy shots near the basket.

On the other hand, the Spurs' starting lineup combined to shoot 39-61 (64%) FG! Some of the shots made were contested and incredible ones, but the Spurs also missed some wide open shots as well! In theory, the Spurs by losing the turnover battle (19 vs 15) and getting outrebounded (grabbed just 45% of the total boards) would lose clearly this game, but that did't happen because they shot 66.4 eFG%!

I believe that we will finally have a close game down the stretch on this series, something that hasn't happened since Game 1, as the potential adjustment that Coach Spoelstra will perform today won't have the impact that other adjustments performed by Miami and San Antonio had in previous games of these Finals. I knew that San Antonio by playing small ball on Game 5 would be competitive via offense and this is why I took the Over on that game. However, I also took Miami because I thought that San Antonio's small ball would be far from the level that Miami's small ball possesses, but I was wrong as San Antonio used an almost kamikaze style by wanting to push the pace in every single play. I believe things will be similar tonight, as this is San Antonio's best chance to win the title and so, we can expect the Spurs to be super aggressive tonight. Manu Ginobili was awesome on Game 5 and the Spurs basically play with two PG's at the same time with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. On the first half, Manu allowed Parker to "rest" a bit by not having to be so aggressive, while Danny Green keeps making treys non-stop and even Tim Duncan had some glimpses of dominance. I know that Chris Bosh mentioned that Danny Green "won't be open tonight", but the problem is making the right close outs on him. Miami will have to abdicate on double covering Parker and  Manu as soon as they attack off the dribble and go to the rim.

On the other side, it has been mentioned that Mike Miller will leave the lineup, while Chris Anderson will return to the rotation. But the key in my opinion will be to know if Udonis Haslem or Shane Battier will be starters tonight. It has been seen that the Heat's big lineup isn't efficient against San Antonio, so I expect Battier to start tonight. Miami couldn't have a great offensive performance on Game 5 due to Dwyane Wade's and Lebron James's misses on the down low, even though they shared the ball with their teammates extremely well. With both teams playing small ball and especially with the efficient that they've showed while doing that, the current totals line is set way too low and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. The story of this series tells us that Miami will bounce back big time tonight, but even though I admit the Heat may win tonight, I expect this contest to be close, therefore I see good value on the Spurs as 6.5 points underdogs tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Over 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 San Antonio Spurs (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 06/16: Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 709 Miami Heat @ 710 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 191 points | Miami by 4 points

For the Game 4 of the Finals, Coach Spoelstra changed Miami's starting lineup by benching Udonis Haslem and starting Mike Miller. Chris Anderson didn't play a single minute on Game 4, so the Heat played the whole game with small ball lineups. Miami's adjustments were done in consequence to what San Antonio had done on Game 3, where the Spurs were giving a lot of space to Lebron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot from the outside. On Game 4, Miami's offense was much more aggressive than on the previous games. They pushed the ball, they scored points in transition and not even a poor start of the game (5-15 run) stopped them. Then, Dwyane Wade woke up and played at a great level. 

On the other hand, San Antonio can only produce offensively if Tony Parker plays well. He made some amazing shots and he would penetrate into the basket and then pass the ball to an open shooter on the outside. But Parker was too tired on the second half, with no explosion, so he was only able to make some assists. The Spurs had a lot of problems to outplay the Heat's undersized lineups, who was very quick in double teaming and closing the passing lanes. Tiago Splitter was well defended down low and he lacks the skills to make the right decisions under pressure. Tim Duncan couldn't dominate down low and of course, San Antonio couldn't handle Miami's offensive flow. This change in Miami's style caused the Game 4 to be the fastest paced game of the Finals with a 92.22 pace, after pace factors of 84.19, 82.71 and 85.32 on Games 1, 2 and 3.

I believe that after San Antonio surprising Miami on Game 3 and the opposite happening on Game 4, I believe won't be able to surprise the opponent tonight. Now with Tony Parker hobbled, Manu Ginobili struggling and Tim Duncan starting to show his real age, San Antonio can't handle Miami anymore. San Antonio's defensive strategy of protecting the rim, packing the paint and give space to Lebron James and Dwyane Wade ended with Game 4 in my opinion. Both Lebron and Wade are now in attack mode and I believe this will continue tonight. What the Spurs can do tonight is give double coverage to both players, but this will mean sacrifice the weakside defense and both Lebron and Wade are excellent passers and they will easily find the right teammates. Note that the Heat shot just 4-12 3pts on Game 4, after shooting 8-25, 10-19 and 8-18 3pts on the first three games of the series! They still won Game 4 easily because both Lebron and Wade attempted a combined of 50 shots! Mike Miller would supposedly spread the floor, but he attempt just one shot in 21 minutes! But if San Antonio tries to change its defensive approach tonight, we can expect Miami's role players to have a big game on their outside shooting, just like it happened on last year's finals against the Thunder! Either way, the Spurs' defense will struggle.

On the other hand, San Antonio's offense should in theory try what Indiana did to Miami on the Conference Final: pound down low, crush the offensive glass and have a bunch of free throws, but they don't have Indiana's powerful big men, as Tiago Splitter isn't David West and Tim Duncan lacks Roy Hibbert's raw power. So, the solution for the Spurs is to play small ball and this is what Coach Popovich has done for most of the time on the Finals, but San Antonio's small ball lacks the dynamic that Miami's small lineups have. While Parker was physically at 100%, San Antonio was able to create good looks, but nothing in comparison to Miami's offense given the aggressive way that the Heat's defense can be aggressive and force turnovers. The adjustments that Popovich might attempt tonight won't create enough damage to make the Heat struggle. Tonight's game is likely to be a duel between two teams playing small ball and Miami is simply the better team in playing like that. Therefore, I'll be taking the Heat in here. Also with both teams using small lineups for most of the game, I expect the game to be relatively as fast as Game 4, with both teams consequently producing decent offense once again. So, I'll be taking the Over in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708/709 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Miami Heat (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 06/13: Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 707 Miami Heat @ 708 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Lines: 183 points | Miami by 2 points

One of the main stories for Game 3 was how the Spurs would be able to be competitive, after being able to outscore Miami in just one quarter on the first two games of the finals. Well, they crushed that trend by outscoring the Heat in all four quarters of Game 3! San Antonio's defensive gameplan was the same as before: dare Lebron and Wade to beat them from the outside, while clogging the lane to prevent them from getting easy points. This is forcing Haslem to play less and less time on this series. He played 17 minutes on Game 1, 16 minutes on Game and now 10 minutes on Game 3, as Miami is only able to get some offensive flow by playing small ball. Lebron James didn't have a good game at all. He hesitated too much on shooting at the basket, even when he was wide open on several possessions. His mindset to involve his teammates on the game with good passes won't simply work given the space that the Spurs are giving him on the outside.

But the big difference on Game 3 was the incredible offensive performance of the Spurs. They looked more aggressive and they didn't hesitate when the opportunity to score in transition appeared. After scoring just 4 and 3 fast break points on the first two games of the series, San Antonio scored 20 fast break points on Game 3! Gary Neal and Danny Green were unstoppable and most of their shots were dictated by an awesome ball movement! However, there was also a lot of demerit from Miami's defense in my opinion. They looked sloppy on the close outs and their energy level was no way near the same level the Spurs' energy. San Antonio doesn't have as a philosophy to crush the offensive glass, but they still had 19 offensive rebounds on this game, for an insane 50% offensive rebound rate! The Heat were sending too much help defenders to contain a hobbled Tony Parker, who took advantage of that to find open teammates. This is why he had 8 assists in just 27 minutes!

Mario Chalmers had a great Game 2 with 6-12 FG, 2-4 3pts, 5-5 FT. 19 points and no turnovers, but he was flat out awful on Game 3 with 0-5 FG and 4 turnovers. On the other hand, Norris Cole was also out of control, something that forced Coach Spoelstra to use a lineup without a pure PG! The pace of Game 3 continued being slow, even though it was the fastest game of the series so far. History shows that whoever wins the Game 3 has a great shot of winning the championship and San Antonio with a perfect game with an almost perfect execution in both ends of the floor is now closer to grab the title.

Just like I predicted, San Antonio surprised Miami with some offensive adjustments on Game 3, but the reason why the Spurs got such a blowout win was due to a huge gap in terms of effort. Miami's defense has been very sloppy on these first games of the finals on making the close outs, with things going completely out of control on Game 3! The Heat is focusing too much on Tony Parker and he has been making the right decisions in assisting his open teammates. Parker attempted just 5 shots during Game 3, but as Miami was constantly sending an extra body defending him, he would simply pass the ball to the open Neal or Green and this was how he had a series high of 8 assists on Game 3. This was so ridiculous that even with Parker injured and on the locker room, Miami continued doing the same thing when Neal or Green would penetrate into the basket, even though these two players don't offer a lot of danger on this kind of plays. Thanks to that, the Spurs continued having an open shooter on the perimeter that repeatedly torched Miami with long-range shots. 

 

After this humiliating loss, I believe that Miami will adjust on Game 4, especially considering how Parker is now banged up with a hamstring injury. They will give more space to Parker, while guarding the Spurs' shooters better. The normal trade off would be Parker having a big game, but with him banged up, the Spurs' offense will struggle. Miami's lack of energy on Game 3 was so evident that San Antonio had a 60% rebound rate and a 50% offensive rebound rate! I expect Miami to come much more focused also on this area, something that won't be hard to do.

On the other side, San Antonio has already showed their defensive strategy for this series: clog the paint and dare Lebron and Wade to shoot from mid-range. This has been evident for everybody and so, Miami will come better prepared for this on Game 4:

"A lot of the Miami defense is focusing on me, and my teammates are taking advantage of it" Tony Parker said. "They're playing great, and hopefully they can keep it going."

Teammate Dwyane Wade pointed out after the game that San Antonio's strategy may be causing James to second-guess himself.

"Their defensive scheme, it's to go under a lot of the pick-and-rolls, to play off a lot" Wade said. "And when they do that, you have the shot most of the time. So it takes away some of your aggressiveness at times, because you have the shot that you can make in your sleep and you're like, 'I'm going to shoot it,' and then it don't go in. But you have to keep shooting it."

"As dark as it was last night, it can't get no darker than that, especially for me," Lebron said Wednesday before the Heat's practice at the AT&T Center. "So I guarantee I'll be better for tomorrow (Game 4) for sure. I have to do whatever it takes. I mean, 7 for 21 isn't going to cut it. It's impossible for me to go 7 for 21, shoot 33 percent from the field and not have free throws. You have to figure out ways offensively that you can make an impact."

I believe that Lebron was so surprised with the space that was given to him that he started to hesitate if he should shoot or not. For this game, the mindset will be different, as he is already expecting to have some space and he isn't a bad shooter at all. I expect Miami to come more focused on Game 4, with more energy and they will take advantage of Parker's injury. The pace of Game 3 was incredibly slow on the first half and then it increased considerably on the second half due to the transition points scored by the Spurs, points that won't happen on Game 4. With the Heat bouncing back defensively on Game 4 and with this series being a slow paced one, I expect the Heat to bounce back in here on a low scoring contest and therefore, I'll be taking both Miami and the Under on Game 4.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Miami Heat (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker