NBA Free Premium Play 04/26: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

Indiana  at Atlanta

NBA - 745 Indiana Pacers @ 746 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** The Pacers are really struggling in this series and today’s contest is clearly a “must win” game for them. Right now, it is more likely for the Pacers to beat the Hawks via their offense rather than their defense as absurd it might sound. Roy Hibbert is lost on the court! The Hawks’ offense w/ their big men shooting the ball from the outside is taking advantage of Hibbert’s lack of mobility. IND’s coach Vogel has decided to change IND’s PNR coverage as he lost the confidence in his team… Obviously, the Pacers are not “prepared” to change their defensive system built in years in a few days, and suddenly, the best defensive team in the league simply doesn't know what to do on the defensive end! In the last game, ATL generated plenty of good outside looks. For some reason, they couldn’t hit those shots @ first half by shooting just 2-16 3pts. However, once those shots started falling, the Hawks killed IND’s defense w/ 59 points in the second half! On the other end… coach Vogel most likely will give more minutes to Luis Scola and C.J. Watson as both players have been quite decent on the offensive end = good sign for the OVER. I expect IND to be super aggressive by attacking the rim and get a decent number of FT’s vs. undersized ATL's frontcourt! With Hibbert playing fewer minutes, the Pacers are playing a bit faster and so, my fair line for this is 190 points = proper edge for a play w/ OVER! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 745/746 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/27: Portland Trail Blazers @ Atlanta Hawks

Portland  at Atlanta

NBA - 801 Portland Trail Blazers @ 802 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** We are dealing with two struggling teams that are coming for this contest w/ a great sense of urgency. I understand that both teams are struggling in both ends of the floor, but I expect this contest to have a good dose of defensive intensiveness. Kyle Korver most likely will not play tonight and he is really a key piece for this ATL team. We all know that ATL is basically jump shooting team and w/ Korver on the court, they have simply one of the best shooters in the league. Korver has missed L4 contests – all ATL losses as ATL went just 28-99 from 3pts land – a miserable 28% mark! On the other end, It looks like LaMarcus Aldridge will play tonight and while I expect him to be a bit rusty w/ his shot, his presence on the defensive end will be crucial. Not because he is a great defensive player but because without him, POR is playing some miserable small ball lineups that can't defend at all. My fair line for this contest is 202/204 points and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 207.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/23: Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors

Atlanta  at Toronto

NBA - 701 Atlanta Hawks @ 702 Toronto Raptors Play #1 My fair line for this contest is 200 points so in my opinion, we are dealing with an inflated totals line. TOR is coming from a brutal physical effort vs. OKC this past Friday. After some bad defensive games, the Raptors bounced back and held OKC to just 96 points @regulation. Their problem was Kevin Durant, but really, this a problem for every team in the league. 4 TOR’s starters logged at least 45 minutes w/ banged up Amir Johnson playing an insane 50 minutes! On the end, ATL has lost the last game vs. NO in their worst defensive performance from a while. They couldn’t stop A. Davis (like Durant, the same thing can be said about Davis’ lately). These two teams played vs. each other already in this week and the game ended w/ 212 points @ regulation. Both teams were incredible efficient w/ FT’s: TOR 26-29 FT - 90% mark and ATL 27-31 FT - 87% mark! Kyle Korver played that game but he’s OUT for today, while ATL’s guard Jeff Teague killed the Raptors w/ 11-18 FG & 11-11 FT for 34 points. However, note that Teague took advantage of the Raptors interior defense that was without Jonas Valanciunas who left the game early. Today’s contest is primed to be a relatively low scoring game… we have an early start, TOR coming from a brutal effort and the Hawks without their best pure shooter = Under play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/18: Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks

Toronto  at Atlanta

NBA - 523 Toronto Raptors @ 524 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** In my opinion, the Hawks are a tough matchup for the Raptors and now that they are “healthy”, they shouldn't be 3.5 pts underdogs at home. I had a play w/ Over in the last game of TOR vs. PHX, and a key factor for the play was the fact that PHX’s mobile frontcourt would be a tough matchup for TOR due to their good shooting range. Eventually, TOR tried to play small ball vs. PHX, but they simply couldn’t stop them. TOR’s Patrick Patterson was OUT and he would really help TOR in that game as he is "more mobile" thank Valanciunas & Amir Johnson and he also shoots well from the outside. Well, Patterson is still OUT for this contest and to make things even worse, ATL’s frontcourt w/ Millsap & Antic is somehow similar to PHX’s frontcourt as both players are great outside shooters, so the Raptors will struggle once again tonight. I had a play w/ Atlanta last night @CHA… and I’ve said: “… the Hawks versatile frontline unit will also cause some problems to CHA’s defense”. BINGO! Millsap dominated the game w/ 12-20 FG for 28 points while Antic & Mike Scott also helped the Hawks by scoring 21 points. I expect the Hawks to create similar offensive problems to TOR’s slow footed frontline. On the other end, D. DeRozan is struggling a bit as of late and I expect D. Carroll to do a good defensive job guarding him. K. Lowry is playing some great basketball but he has to do too much for them IMO. ATL’s defense has improved considerably w/ Millsap & Antic on the starting line and so, I really think that the Hawks will be extremely competitive in here. NOTE: the public is pounding the Raptors in this contest, so it's likely that sooner or later, ALL the books will be forced to put ATL @+3.5 points. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 524 Atlanta Hawks (+3.5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 03/17: Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Bobcats

Atlanta  at Charlotte

NBA - 503 Atlanta Hawks @ 504 Charlotte Bobcats Play #1 There is no question that the Bobcats are playing really well as of late! I had them yesterday @MIL and despite the game was basically a close battle, the Bobcats were super clutch down the stretch. However, for this contest, I don’t like at all of their spot and more importantly, the Hawks are a tough matchup for the Bobcats. ATL has won their L3 games and so, they are feeling more confident right now. They still have some problems vs. DEN because the Nuggets’ speed on the frontcourt caused some problems and we cashed our play w/ DEN. I understand that Al Jefferson will have a tremendous edge down low vs. ATL frontcourt, but on the other end, the Hawks versatile frontline unit will also cause some problems to CHA’s defense. I remember that CHA’s defense is predicated to protect the rim but the Hawks have good shooters from 1-to-5 positions. I expect this contest to be a pure 50/50 game and therefore, we have some value w/ ATL in here getting 3 points. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Atlanta Hawks (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/26: Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

Atlanta  at Boston

NBA - 703 Atlanta Hawks @ 704 Boston Celtics Play #1 ATL might be shorthanded right now, but they are playing hard and last night they could have defeated the Bulls if not some late TO’s (fortunately for us!). Obviously, ATL is being crushed by their opponents on the glass… they had only 46% reb/rate% vs. CHI while CHI’s frontcourt were great offensively w/ Boozer 8-14 FG, Noah 9-13 FG e Gibson 5-12 FG. Despite all the injuries, ATL’s offense has been pretty decent as their perimeter is producing at a decent level due to their great ball movement – ATL is shooting 44.5% from 3pts in L5 games! For this contest against the Celtics…the X factor IMO is that BOS don’t have the proper players and/or depth to pound ATL’s down low. BOS’s best post up player J. Sullinger is OUT for tonight…. Kelly Olynyk will miss the game as well and even Vitor Faverani is OUT! I really don’t think that B. Bass & K. Humphries are skilled enough on the post to torch the Hawks tonight… On the other end, BOS is a bit of shorthanded @ backcourt and this is where ATL’s really excels right now… R. Rondo isn’t playing @100% (especially on the defensive end) and my fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 game. BOS is in full “tanking mode” and they shouldn’t be favored in this contest IMO! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Atlanta Hawks (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA FREE Premium Play 02/22: New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks

New York  at Atlanta

NBA - 507 New York Knicks @ 508 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** ATL has now lost 8 straight games! Their L5 losses were essentially due to some bad defense w/ 118.8 Def. Rtg. Primarily, their lack of options on the frontcourt is the main culprit as ATL can’t protect properly the basket and that was pretty clear, because DET simply crushed them: “DET ended the game w/ 53.4% reb/rate%, 66 points in the paint while Monroe & Drummond combined to shoot 20-28 FG - a 71% mark! That was exactly why I had Detroit last night as my Best Play!” Fortunately for them, ATL won’t be torched defensively in this area tonight, because the Knicks really don’t have any “interest” in pound down low vs. their opponents! Note that last night, despite playing 2 OT’s vs. ORL, NYK was able to score just 28 points in the paint! ATL’s defense will be focused only in stopping NYK’s perimeter game and NYK’s is mired in a bad spot w/ 4 games in 5 days while last night’s game vs. ORL had 2 OT’s: Melo played 50 min, JR Smith 49, Hardaway 45, Felton 45 and Chandler 42 min! On the other side, like the Knicks, the Hawks really don’t have any interior game right now. They rely almost exclusively w/ their perimeter to be efficient but we are dealing with a team that lacks confidence right now. This will be the 4th and final H2H game between these two teams, and the first 3 games were all SLOW PACED affairs. I expect this contest to be quite similar in terms of pace factor and w/ both teams coming from bad physical spots and without any inside game, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 202.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 02/08: Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks

Memphis  at Atlanta

NBA - 503 Memphis Grizzlies @ 504 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** MEM defense was just torched by the Mavericks excellent spread offense in the last game by allowing 110 points. DAL was able to explore MEM poor P&R defense to have 8-19 FG P&R Ball handler plays & 7-8 FG P&R Roll Man. Well, the Hawks don’t have Dirk Nowitzki on their roster, but they have somehow a similar spread offense w/ a terrific ball movement that will cause some problems @ MEM’s weak side defense. Just look for ATL’s last game @NO… 29 of their FGM were assisted for a phenomenal 76% assist/rate! I expect Teague to use his speed advantage over N. Calathes while P. Millsap is a tough matchup for Z. Randolph due to his mid range shooting ability (like D. Nowitzki). However, I also expect MEM to have a good edge on the offense end vs. ATL. ATL don’t have depth on the frontcourt and they are really undersized and prone to be outrebounded and “outmuscled” down low. That’s what I expect for tonight w/ MEM “bigs” to score w/ some ease near the basket. Basically, ATL w/ their superior ball movement will be able to create good looks from the outside while MEM will have the edge on the inside, the correlation between these two edges makes the Over a solid play in my opinion. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 189.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/08: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

Indiana  at Atlanta

NBA - 707 Indiana Pacers @ 708 Atlanta Hawks Play #2 IND is coming from a really tough game against the Raptors in which they had to work hard for the full 48-min. For some reason, IND is having some problems this season in b2b games, they are 1-6 ATS L7 b2b games and while their defense is almost always awesome, their offense is prone to struggle if they can’t generate good inside looks. IND is now 26-96 3pts L5 games for a subpar 27% mark so I expect the Hawks to pack the paint against them and “force” the Pacers to beat them from the outside. On the other end, the Hawks offense is having a “natural” regression now that Al Horford is gone for the season. Jeff Teague who is shooting less than 40 percent in his last four games and is 1-13 from three-point range in that span and even Kyle Korver is 6-21 from the field in the last three games. They are basically a jump shooting team and unfortunately for them, they will face the #1 ranked 3pts defensive team in the league as IND is allowing only 32.1% 3pts to their opponents. I expect an usual grind-out game from the Pacers as they will try to win the game via their stellar defense while the Hawks will take advantage of the Pacers bad physical spot. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 188.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/31: Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics

Atlanta  at Boston

NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Boston Celtics Play #1 Since Al Horford got injured, Atlanta's offense started being super perimeter based. On their last game at Orlando, Atlanta had a volume of 24% on pick and roll ball handler plays and 27% on spot ups. However, the Hawks are expected to find some problems today against Boston's decent perimeter defense that is #14 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #4 on spot up defense. On the other hand, Boston's offense is using a lot of pick and roll ball handler plays lately as well. However, they also keep having a nice post up, as Boston has a quite big backcourt. These are areas where Atlanta's defense is struggling. The aggressiveness of Boston's guards will be a huge problem for Atlanta's backcourt defense, as both Louis Williams and Kyle Korver won't be able to prevent the Celtics's dribble penetrations With the Hawks being so perimeter oriented and the Celtics having some nice edges on offense for today, I believe Boston will be able to pick up a comfortable win today, as they are also #5 in the league on 3pts defense with 33.8% allowed. Therefore, I'm taking Boston today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Boston Celtics (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/28: Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte  at Atlanta

NBA - 509 Charlotte Bobcats @ 510 Atlanta Hawks Play #3 The injury of Al Horford is a major blow for this Hawks team especially on the offensive end, and I think we will notice it tonight. ATL is coming from a double-OT win @CLE in which Teague, Korver and Millsap logged major minutes, so this isn’t exactly a good physical spot for them either. CHA defense has been great all season long and after a 3-game stretch in which they were subpar, they “bounced” back last night and held OKC to just 89 points. Horford’s presence tonight would be a nightmare for CHA because Big Al Jefferson isn’t mobile enough to defend Horford when he goes “outside”. Note that in the first h2h game between these two teams, he was the MVP of the game w/ a great stats line of 9-15 FG, 6-7 FT, a game high 24 points and even 5 assists. Without him, ATL will start Elton Brand and Brand is more valuable on the defensive end for the team. This is important because Brand will defend Al Jefferson on the post and it won’t be easy for Big Al to score down low. The Bobcats are coming from a tough loss vs. OKC last night w/ another bad offensive performance to show it. ATL defense will be focused in shutting down Kemba Walker and they have Jeff Teague as a capable defensive player for the job. My Fair line for this contest is 190 points, so therefore, we have the proper edge to play the UNDER in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/26: Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Atlanta  at Cleveland

NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #1 There is a considerable gap of quality between the Hawks and the Cavaliers right now… ATL offense has been great to watch w/ a superb ball movement, high A/TO ratios and great overall shooting. Their game @MIA was a good statement of their ability as a team, even though they lost the game. Tonight’s matchup is extremely favorable for the Hawks as they will explore CLE’s frontcourt lack of speed w/ both Millsap & Horford. CLE frontline unit is a powerful unit but at the same time, they are slow footed and they are automatically in trouble against post players than can shoot from mid range. In the first h2h of the season, the Hawks crushed the Cavs 108-89! Just look for ATL’s big men numbers: Millsap 7-14 FG, 16 pts, 14 reb & 5 assists in just 27 minutes and Horford 10-19 FG, 22 pts, 9 reb & 4 assists in 31min! On the other side, CLE offense is still a work in progress and for now, they need Kyrie Irving to do almost everything. They run a lot of Pick n Rolls but the problem is that ATL is a top 10 defensive team defending P&R ball handler plays (Ranked #7), so it won’t be easy for CLE to generate easy points against a disciplined ATL defense. My fair line for this contest is ATL-6 and that’s why I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Atlanta Hawks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 12/10: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks

Oklahoma City  at Atlanta

NBA - 511 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 512 Atlanta Hawks Play #5 Jeff Teague is the X factor for this Hawks team and when he struggles, the Hawks are automatically in trouble and that’s what I expect for them tonight against the Thunder. Teague’s dribble drive penetration is one of the biggest factors of Kyle Korver’s 3pts streak record as his ability to pass for the open man on the outside is key. However when Teague struggles and we have some examples of that: @WAS: 5-18 FG & 5/5 A/TO ratio @HOU: 0-5 FG & 6/3 A/TO ratio vs ORL: 4-11 FG & 6/4 A/TO ratio vs BOS: 3-15 FG & 10/2 A/TO ratio @MIA: 4-13 FG & 7/4 A/TO As you can guess, all those games ended up with a Hawks loss. Russell Westbrook will be a tough matchup for him tonight and OKC’s length and athleticism in protecting the rim will make tough for ATL’s sharp ball movement. ATL doesn’t have a strong interior defense so I expect OKC to have a good offensive game in attacking the rim. I also expect OKC to play some small ball w/ Durant @PF just because he can deal with Millsap on the defensive end and OKC’s small ball lineup is really great offensively Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 11/26: Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 505 Orlando Magic @ 506 Atlanta Hawks

Play #1

Atlanta is coming from a surprising home loss against Boston. The Hawks had a double digits lead going into the fourth quarter, with Al Horford dominating, while Jeff Teague was struggling given Avery Bradley's good defense. On the other hand, Boston's offense was having a brick fest. Then, the fourth quarter arrived and Atlanta started well the quarter but then putting the second unit on the floor with Louis Williams leading the offense was a terrible idea. Boston got closer on the scoreboard and with Atlanta's starting lineup back on the floor, they decided to keep shooting jumpers and more jumpers, in such a way that Boston used a zone defense to force Atlanta to shoot from even further, something that made Atlanta miss even more shots! On the other hand, Boston got aggressive on the offensive end by attacking the rim and even though they kept shooting a lot of bricks, the free throws they got via aggressiveness were the key!

"I think the free-throw line and the aggressiveness of Boston in the fourth quarter was the difference in the game" Atlanta's coach Mike Budenholzer said. "For the game it’s 31-12 from the free-throw line. That’s going to make it a difficult game to win. I think we need to learn from that and be more aggressive and get to the paint, get the basket, get to the free-throw line. It’s a tough lesson to learn. It’s a tough way to learn it."

On their recent stretch of the games, Atlanta has been showing some problems on offense that are justified by their bad spot. In fact, their last game against the Celtics was their fourth game in five days and the Hawks don't have a lot of depth to defend themselves from these spots. They also faced Detroit twice and it wasn't easy for Atlanta to have good offensive games against such a big frontcourt, while Jeff Teague was limited by tiredness on back to back games. The good news is that Atlanta will now be rested to face Orlando tonight and Jeff Teague will come from facing a top defender like Avery Bradley into a poor defender like Jameer Nelson.

Orlando is now playing with a small lineup, so Atlanta with their own undersized lineup won't have problems in matching them. After a good start of the season, the Magic's defense was sent back to Earth while facing potent offensive teams. This is why they allowed more than 100 points in six of their last seven games! On the other side, Atlanta's defense is also far from being an elite unit, as they are allowing too many points near the basket, something understandable given their undersized frontcourt formed by Al Horford and Paul Millsap. 

These two teams have already faced each other this season and the game ended with 198 points, even though both teams had subpar offensive performances. This was due the fast pace that the game had that compensated the poor efficiency. I believe tonight's game will have a similar pace, while both offenses will look better tonight. The Magic were on a back to back spot in that game and they committed 19 turnovers and shot 10-18 FT! On the other side, Atlanta didn't have any problem in creating easy shots, as they ended that game with 36 assists! Dennis Schroder was at the time Atlanta's main backup guard and he had an awful 0-8 FG game. He has recently left the rotation and was replaced by Louis Williams, who will give an offensive boost to the team coming off the bench. On the other side, Orlando was starting Jason Maxiell at the time and he has been since replaced by Victor Oladipo, who gives more speed to the lineup, while Glen Davis is also now playing. This makes me believe that this game will have more points than the first game played between these two teams and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 199,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/09: Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks

Orlando  at Atlanta

NBA - 703 Orlando Magic @ 704 Atlanta Hawks Play #2 Orlando's offense struggled a lot against Boston's defense last night. The key factor for that was the good defensive pressure that Boston put on the opposing ball handler and that forced Orlando to commit 20 turnovers, a season high for them! Orlando's coach Jacque Vaughn credited Avery Bradley for disrupting Orlando's offense so well last night: "They have a pretty good defender in Avery Bradley who can extend the defense some and pressure the basketball." Jacque Vaughn said. "A couple of times he was able to get into us and disrupt us a little bit." The Magic have been so far on this season a pure jump shooting team, but they shot 4-20 3pts and committed 20 turnovers last night, so they struggled and scored just 89 points. After a nice start of the season, it seems like the Magic's offense is now regressing with 5-16 and 4-20 3pts on their last two games. Avery Bradley once again proved that he is a nightmare matchup for Jameer Nelson, who had just 4-15 FG and 7 turnovers yesterday! I believe that Orlando's offense will have a better matchup tonight, as Atlanta's backcourt won't put as much pressure on Orlando's backcourt. However, I don't expect that to be enough for the Magic to make this game competitive. Atlanta is returning home after a tough road trip where they played at LA against the Lakers, at Sacramento and at Denver. Their offense was super sharp during the whole trip, with an excellent ball movement and with solid all around numbers. The key for that is of course Al Horford and Paul Millsap! I believe that these two players will have a mega edge against Orlando's poor interior defense tonight. The Magic's defense has been able to limit their opponents at the paint (#5 with 37 points in the paint allowed per game), but both Horford and Millsap don't play near the basket. They are super versatile on shooting from mid-range and this will crush Orlando's defensive formation. I expect a comfortable win for the Hawks tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Atlanta Hawks (-6,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

Atlanta Hawks NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

ATLANTA HAWKS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	92.6	12
Offense	104.8	18
Defense	104.4	10
Rebound	48.1	26

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	51.7	6	eFG%	49.6	15
TO%	14.2	25	TO%	14.2	10
Reb%	22.2	27	Reb%	26.4	13
FT%	17.4	28	FT%	18.1	4

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	9-5	105.0	101.4
December	10-5	108.7	107.0
January	7-9	105.3	106.6
February	7-4	112.3	107.4
March	8-10	105.0	106.4
April	3-5	107.8	109.6

On their first season without Joe Johnson and with no major signing, the Hawks had a fairly positive season. They started the season very well by winning 20 of their first 30 games, but then they just couldn't keep the same level and when their sixth man Louis Williams suffered a season-ending injury, the Hawks became one of the easier matchups that a top team could get in the playoffs.

Head Coach Larry Drew consistently alternated the starting lineups given the matchups that they were facing that day. When he wanted to play with a “big lineup”, Drew would insert Zaza Pachulia at the Center position, sending Al Horford into the PF position. When the opponent wasn't a very physical one, then Horford would be the team’s starting Center, while Josh Smith would play at the PF position. But when Zaza got injured in March and missed the rest of the season, the Hawks stopped being able to be so versatile on their lineups. This was especially a problem in the first round of the playoffs, when they faced the very physical Indiana Pacers.

After being led on offense by “ISO Joe” for so many seasons, Atlanta changed its offensive structure thanks to their coach. The team shared the ball pretty well and they were the second best team in the league in assists per game. However, their lack of aggressiveness was quite evident, as they were one of the worst teams in the league on offensive rebounding (#27) and FT rate (#28). When Atlanta’s jump shots weren’t going in, the team would immediately struggle, as they couldn’t score via second chance points or from the line.

Defensively, Atlanta struggled on defending rebounding when they were using their small lineup, but given their roster, the fact that the Hawks managed to be the #10 defense in the league shows a great job from Coach Drew.

In the playoffs, after losing the first two games on the road against the Pacers by 27 and 15 points, Atlanta bounced back and won the next two home games also by double digit points. But eventually their jump shooting style cost them deeply, as they scored just 83 and 73 points on the last two games of the series, while shooting a combined of 6-33 3pts!

Offseason Report:

The Hawks suffered huge changes on the offseason, with Danny Ferry being the team’s GM. Even though Larry Drew did a good job with the team, Ferry decided to release him and hire someone who he trusted from the days where they worked together in San Antonio: Mike Budenholzer.

Josh Smith left for the Pistons, but that was quickly compensated with the signing via free agency of Paul Millsap, on a two-year $19 million deal, a very team friendly deal.

Atlanta re-signed Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver to new contracts. Danny Ferry also signed Elton Brand, DeMarre Carroll and Gustavo Ayon on free agency.

NBA Premium Play 05/03: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 547 Indiana Pacers @ 548 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: 181 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This series changed its style the moment when Atlanta changed its starting lineup by inserting Johan Petro at the Center position. With Petro playing 20 minutes per game, the Hawks naturally lost its speed edge over the Pacers's starting lineup. Even though Atlanta has been able to score double digits fast break points in every game of this series (14-17-14-11-10), if we look at their PPP (points per possession) on transitions, we get a different story: 1.23, 1.09, 0.75, 0.67 and 0.92 PPP! Since Atlanta started using a big lineup on Game 3, their effectiveness on transitions decreased considerably. Their offensive rating in these three games were 98, 114 and 95, so the only game where they managed to have a decent offensive game was on Game 4, where Indiana had a stupid overreaction on defense. Atlanta had a blowout win on Game 3 due to Al Horford's huge game and a nice all-around game from Josh Smith, so suddenly the Pacers decided to give an extra look on these two players and this allowed Atlanta to shoot 11-24 on 3pts, with Kyle Korver shooting 5-8 3pts and Anthony Tolliver 3-3 3pts!

Game 5 was some kind of back to basics from Indiana on defense and of course, Atlanta's offense immediately struggled to score with their big lineup. I believe the same thing will happen tonight on Game 6. Atlanta's big men have no intention of trying to have an edge down low, where they shot 9-16 FG and 10-14 FG at the rim on the last two games of the series. Their big lineup is on court to try to avoid the edge Indiana's frontcourt has on their offense. First of all, Indiana's offense completely renounced to their transition game on Game 5 by scoring just 6 fast break points. After 12.10%, 9.30%, 11.00%, 12.80% volume of transition plays on the first four games of this series, Indiana's transition volume on Game 5 was just 5.10%! Atlanta wants to avoid at any cost Indiana to pound them down low and they prevented that from happening on Game 5, as the Pacers shot just 13-18 FG at the rim. That's a considerable different to the first two games of the series, where Indiana shot 25-32 FG and 18-30 FG at the rim. 

Indiana managed to score especially via free throws with 29-35 FT and with a decent outside shooting game with 7-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-19 3pts! However, Indiana is super inconsistent on their perimeter shooting, especially on the road, so I don't expect them to repeat such numbers at all tonight. The key factor on Game 5 was Josh Smith being on foul trouble and so, he played just 26 minutes. He is defending Paul George on this series, who with Josh on foul trouble, took advantage of that to have a big game with 7-8 FG. 5-7 FT, 21 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists! With Indiana having a good defense and with their natural offensive letdown tonight against an improved and bigger Hawks defense, I believe this game will be a well-fought low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 547/548 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/29: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 517 Indiana Pacers @ 518 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: Indiana by 3 points

Indiana went to the Game 3 of this series with a completely wrong mindset, as this generally happens with teams that have two easy wins on the first two games of the series:

“Our offensive disposition,” he said. “We played with a low motor. I thought we were passive and succumbed to their pressure.”

After two easy wins, where they weren't that bad defensively, but they won via offense with a high number of free throws and rebounds. The problem is that the Pacers's offense isn't consistent to win games via offense and so, they laid a huge egg on Game 3. However, it's important to note that the Pacers did a decent defensive job in that game. Atlanta shot 42.7% FG and dished 17 assists. In fact, Johan Petro was on court for 14 minutes and the Hawks were outscored by 3 points during that span of time. Indiana still won the rebounding edge by grabbing 53% of the boards. The problem was really Indiana's offense having the wrong mindset and so, Atlanta closed the paint well and the Pacers simply missed a bunch of jump shots with 4-25 3pts!

I believe Indiana will be much more focused tonight and especially with a much more appropriate gameplan by pounding Atlanta down low. A good sign of that was David West's numbers in Game 3, as he was on court for 34 minutes and Indiana outscored Atlanta by 4 points during that span! Therefore, I believe the Pacers will win tonight's contest and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Indiana Pacers (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/27: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 505 Indiana Pacers @ 506 Atlanta Hawks

Projected Line: 184 points

The Hawks must be regretting their decision of not fighting for the 5th seed in the East on the last week of the regular season, in order to face Brooklyn in the first around and avoid facing Indiana, as their physicality is just too much for them. I understood Larry Drew's decision of using a speedy lineup of Al Horford, Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague in the first two games. The Hawks tried to attack Indiana in transition with their two quick guards and prevent Indiana's defense to shut them down in halfcourt. This has actually worked, as Atlanta shot better than Indiana in the first two games of the season with a higher FG% plus they scored a nice 17 fast break points in Game 2 against the team that is #1 in the league on transition defense!

However, they played so small that their defense was completely crushed by Indiana's offense that scored +110 points in the first two games of the series. Josh Smith and Al Horford had to guard the huge Pacers frontcourt and that resulted in Al Horford getting into foul trouble in Game 1 and then, Josh Smith having the same fate in Game 2. Kyle Korver tried to defend Paul George in Game 1 and was a disaster. Then, Devin Harris guarded Paul George in Game 2 and he was actually decent in that. But the truth is that Indiana dominated them down low by winning the boards battle in the first two games of the series plus gaining a lot of fouls due to their size edge. The discrepancy in free throw attempts of the two teams has been huge for Indiana on this series plus they have been red hot from the outside, something unusual for them, who tend to be streaky on their long-range shooting. 

Because of all of these, Larry Drew had no other option but confirm that Atlanta will "play big" on tonight's game. It looks like Johan Petro will start at Center, moving Al Horford to PF and Josh Smith to the SF position, allowing Kyle Korver to come off the bench.

"Certainly, minus Zaza, that kind of puts us behind the eight-ball" Larry Drew said. "But I feel confident we can match up. We have ability to go big. We have ability to go small. The first couple of games, we played a lot of small. We tried to utilize our speed and our quickness. Now we may change a little bit."

Kyle Korver will leave the starting lineup and the truth is that Indiana has been doing a great job in closing out Korver and with Petro/Johnson on the lineup, we will have Josh Smith guarding Paul George and Al Horford defending David West. Johan Petro is a solid defensive post up player, but he is very limited on offense. Atlanta tried to win via offense on the first two games of the season and they got crushed, so the Hawks will be trying a different approach tonight. So, an inevitable offensive regression from Atlanta will happen today. Without a great shooter like Kyle Korver on the starting lineup, Josh Smith will play at the perimeter more and that will end in Smith taking some terrible outside shots as usual. The floor spacing of the Hawks's offense won't be as good as usual and with that, Indiana's elite defense will shut them down tonight. But, on the other hand, Atlanta will also be doing a better defensive performance. We have to expect an inevitable regression on the Pacers's shooting and even the free throw numbers of the Pacers won't be as huge as they were on the first two games tonight, especially as they will be playing on the road this time. I expect this game to be the first low scoring contest of this series and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 189 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 04/24: Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

Atlanta  at Indiana

NBA - 729 Atlanta Hawks @ 730 Indiana Pacers Projected Line: 191 points Indiana comfortably won Game 1 of this season due to two tremendous edges: rebounding (60% rebound rate) and free throws (34 FTA vs 14 FTA, with Paul George shooting 17-18 FT). Of course I expect a bigger effort from the Hawks to try to limit these two key factors, but this domination from Indiana on these two areas will be inevitable, as we are talking about a team that has a tremendous size advantage over Atlanta and that they will continue using that throughout this series. The Hawks were never a good rebounding team during the regular season or had a nice FT/rate numbers, so they will have to live with these two edges during this series. Atlanta had a nice start of the game by using their superior speed as a weapon through Jeff Teague and Devin Harris. The Hawks managed to generate plenty of good looks against Indiana and it wasn't surprising that they shot 50% FG and 41% 3pts during the game, as they had great looks, they pushed the ball and I expect the same to happen tonight. The focus of Atlanta's practice was on executing better on both ends and playing with pace. Coach Larry Drew said the Hawks did well early on when they jumped out to the early lead, with dictating the pace, but then they got too stagnant. "We gotta run more. At the beginning of the game I thought our tempo was really good. We were really running to attack and then offensively we were running our sets with pace. When we run it with pace, we get good ball movement. When we started isolating, we got into a situation where we got stagnant isolating, standing around and started taking bad shots. That led to them running. I told our guys, a bad shot is just as good as a turnover. Again, this is playoff basketball, you have to do the things that are going to give you an advantage and do the things you feel you are good with. I feel we are good when we run and when we move the basketball because we become hard to defend because we are less predictable." The key factor in Game 1 was Al Horford playing just 28 minutes due to foul trouble. He committed his second PF with 5:29 left in the first half and coach Drew panicked and removed him from the court for the rest of the half. This is a persistent issue with some coaches, but Larry Drew might be the league's top offender, with Al Horford as the victim. It makes no sense on so many levels! Horford isn't remotely foul prone, as he averaged 2.2 per game while playing 37 minutes a night this season. On the other side, I liked to see Indiana not playing half court sets exclusively on offense, where their size edge is tremendous. They also pushed the pace and score in transition. Atlanta scored 14 fast break points, but Indiana responded them with 12 fast break points on their own! Of course, Atlanta will put their focus in stopping Paul George and that will free up more space down low for David West and Roy Hibbert. Therefore, I expect another high scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 729/730 Over 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker