NBA - 821 Portland Trailblazers @ 822 Phoenix Suns
Projected line: 191 points | PK line
If there is a player who seems to really influence the level of Portland's performances, that player is Gerald Wallace, as Portland has won 13 of the last 14 reg season home games when he starts. The team's NetRtg when Wallace is on the floor is +15.6 this year, while when he's not the NetRtg is -5.4! And after last night, I wonder how much energy will Portland have left for tonight's contest. Felton played 41 minutes, Wallace 37 minutes and Aldrdige 33 minutes. We are talking about a team who needs their athleticism to win and especially from a fresh Gerald Wallace, as I've said above. However, after such a big game from him last night, I'm quite sure he will tired and with no explosion for tonight and the Blazers will certainly suffer offensively because of that.
After such a show last night, the Blazers are on a natural letdown and this team has the potential to struggle really badly on letdown spots, as they aren't good shooters and they need their natural off rebounds edge and hustle to be competitive on their games. Portland is shooting just 54% FG at the rim, even though they are trying 33.6% of their shots in that area! So, Portland is dependent from their energy and athleticism, which should be lacking tonight after such an effort last night.
On the other side, Phoenix is a team that commits few turnovers and they won't give a lot of margin for the Blazers to run tonight. Phoenix with Steve Nash controlling the offense has a good half court game and against a team like the Blazers with tired legs, they have a good shot of making this game highly competitive. I expect Phoenix to control this game and put it as a relatively slow pace and with Portland lacking fresh legs, I believe this match will have some bad offensive moments for sure. I came up with a projection of 191 points for this contest and so, I'll take the under in here. Considering Portland's very likely letdown spot, I'll also take Phoenix on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821/822 Under 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 822 Phoenix Suns (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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