NBA Free Premium Play 04/06: Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets

Denver  at Houston

NBA - 509 Denver Nuggets @ 510 Houston Rockets ***FREE Premium Play*** Looks like Ty Lawson is OUT for this contest and in my opinion, without him, the Nuggets won’t have a chance in this potential fast paced contest vs. HOU. Lawson was related to the bench in the last game (he missed a team meeting) and the Nuggets’ starting lineup looked awful and got quickly outscored by the Grizzlies.  Eventually, the Nuggets were able to make a rally w/ Lawson on the court and w/ DEN’s coach using some super small ball lineups w/ Lawson + Brooks + Foye! They had some success because the Grizzlies really don’t “know” how to deal w/ such small ball teams. However, this won’t be the case tonight vs. Rockets. After losing 3 straight games, the Rockets defeated the Thunder in the last game in a big game for them. Without Beverly, HOU doesn’t have any capable perimeter defensive player but the good news is that Lawson is OUT as well… DEN defense has been atrocious vs. good offensive teams… they have allowed 108 and 133 points to San Antonio, 117 to OKC or 122 points to the Mavericks! Brooks & Foye will be overmatched by Harden and Lin! With the Rockets scoring so easily, the Nuggets without Lawson don’t have the proper offensive “punch” to hang around w/ HOU on the road and so, I’m taking the Rockets tonight as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Houston Rockets (-10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 04/02: New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

New Orleans  at Denver

NBA - 521 New Orleans Pelicans @ 522 Denver Nuggets Play #1 This is going to be a classic game between two losing teams that won’t have much incentive to play defense. Despite scoring only 92 points in the last game, the Nuggets actually were pretty efficient vs. MEM’s elite defense – they shot 49.3% FG and had a nice Off. Rtg. of 110.7! The problem? The game was played under MEM’s terms w/ a super slow paced factor of 84.8! For this contest, I expect the Nuggets to dictate the pace and the game to be a run and gun affair because this is what happened in the previous 3 contests between these two teams. The Pelicans are coming from a bad offensive performance vs. SAC in a game that A. Davis looked like a bit off sync after missing one game due to an injury. As usual, NO’s defense was atrocious as they allowed SAC to abuse them down low while dominating the boards. I expect Davis to bounce back strong in this favorable matchup vs. K. Faried. The last H2H game ended w/ 188 points @ regulation in a game where both teams were incredibly sloppy w/ 51 total TO’s and combined to shot 12-37 3pts! Still they were able to score easy near the basket w/ 62 & 58 points. I expect both teams to score easy at the rim but w/ better overall offensive numbers, my fair line for this contest is 212 points. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/12: Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic

Denver  at Orlando

NBA - 607 Denver Nuggets @ 608 Orlando Magic Play #1 Now that Ty Lawson is back and playing quite well, the Nuggets have their usual potent offense predicated in transition plays & attacking the rim while defensively, this team is really a mess! DEN is coming from a loss against a decent defensive team like CHA is… they scored 17 fast break pts + 54 points in the paint but they couldn’t hit a three pointer to save their lives (5-24 3pts). For tonight, I expect them to be aggressive while they won’t have any problems to score in transition and at the rim vs. ORL. ORL is now in “tank mode” and their defensive problems are well noticed -> they are allowing 16.6 fast break pts + 46.9 pts paint in L7 games! However, I also expect ORL to have some nice edges offensively vs. DEN! First of all, N. Vucevic isn’t Al Jefferson, but I still expect him to have a decent game against the awful DEN interior defense. DEN defense is also a bad PNR defensive team and so, ORL’s backcourt unit of Nelson, Afflalo & Oladipo (he won’t receive limited minutes tonight) will have a nice matchup to be decent as well. ORL’s pace factor as of late has been extremely fast (we have a good sample of games vs. fast tempo teams like PHI, SAS and HOU) and therefore, we can expect tonight’s game to be a pure run and gun game with less defense. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 607/608 Over 214 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 02/20: Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Denver  at Milwaukee

NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Milwaukee Bucks Play #3 Yes, MIL is the worst team in the league but they are playing better as of late as their head coach Larry Drew has figured out some rotations, like playing rookie PG Wolters alongside w/ B. Knight; giving more minutes to J. Henson or playing K. Middleton @SF and not on the backcourt. The key factor for this contest is clearly related with the Denver Nuggets… Ty Lawson remains injured and will miss tonight’s game… not only he is BY FAR the Nuggets best player but also, DEN simply don’t have any real backups for him. I went against them in their last game vs. PHX saying the following: “In the L2 games prior to the All Star Break, DEN had awful Off. RTG of 87.3 & 93.0 while having just 17 and 19 assists. When their “Point Guard” right now is R. Foye (who is averaging just 3.0 assists per game this season), then it’s easy to understand why DEN is/will struggle this much without Lawson.” Well, DEN finished the game shooting 38.4% FG, shooting just 5-28 behind the line and had only 17 assists! Randy Foye isn’t a Point Guard and for this contest I really expect B. Knight to excel against the Nuggets’ poor backcourt defense. In the first h2h game between these two teams, DEN won the game by 10 points w/ 1) B. Knight having a terrible game w/ 4-17 FG and 2) Ty Lawson despite shooting just 6-14 FG, he had 7 rebounds and… 13 of the 22 team assists! DEN is lacking some confidence and most importantly, they aren’t play well and this current line DEN-5 is just too much for them as my fair line is DEN-1. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Milwaukee Bucks (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/10: Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers

Denver  at Indiana

NBA - 701 Denver Nuggets @ 702 Indiana Pacers Play #2 This Nuggets team without Ty Lawson isn’t the “same” team, especially on the offensive end and this will be problematic tonight vs. IND defense. Lawson didn’t play in the second half in DEN’s last game @DET and the difference was quite notorious: after scoring 61 points in the first half, DEN was “held” to just 48 points in the second half. This will be the 5th game of the season in which Lawson is OUT and in the previous 4 games, DEN had a subpar 98.2 Off. Rtg. & 91.5 points per game! It is confirmed that Foye will start @PG while Q. Miller will be the shooting guard. Without Lawson’s dribble drive penetrations, DEN offense is stagnant and easier to defend, especially when we are dealing w/ the best defensive team in the league! On the other side, IND is struggling right now on the offensive end. I’ve been telling that this IND offense is streaky, and right now they are struggling to hit their jumpers, in four of their last 6 games, they have failed to reach the 20-assists mark! Two weeks ago, DEN crushed the Pacers at home by scoring 109 points while taking advantage of the awful IND’s physical spot going for that game (b2b game after playing OT game @SAC in the previous day). Lawson was pivotal in that game - 6-11 FG, 12 pts and especially 10/1 A/TO ratio. This won’t happen tonight as IND will control the tempo via their defense while they will keep struggling a bit w/ their offense. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 199.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 12/13: Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets

Utah  at Denver

NBA - 821 Utah Jazz @ 822 Denver Nuggets Play #3 I don’t think that Jazz Head Coach Tyrone Corbin is a good coach for several reasons, but at least IMO he made the right decision to not start Favors and Kanter together as these two players are way too similar to share big minutes on the floor (just like the dilemma Howard & Asik @HOU earlier on the season). Marvin Williams isn’t a great player at all but his ability to spread the floor @PF position is working for the Jazz right now as their offense looks more fluid. Marvin had a nice 4-game stretch in which he shot 7-14 FG, 7-11 FG, 6-11 FG & 4-10 FG while hitting at least 2 treys in every game and the Jazz defeated CHI, PHX & HOU in that stretch. Eventually he got injured, missed 4 games (all UTA clear losses) and returned last game just to help the Jazz crush the Kings on the road. With rookie PG Trey Burke running sharp pick n rolls & better floor spacing, the Jazz went from having Off. Rtg = 96.1 in the first 16 games of the season vs. 114.3 in L8 games! They are not an elite team but they aren’t the same pathetic team that started the season. Tonight they will catch a Nuggets team that enjoyed a nice 3-days rest after being on the road for quite some time. I took them in L3 games (@BOS, @PHI & @WAS) just because they were facing some favorable matchups and their superior depth was a premium factor that really helped them to win the last 2 games. However, although I won L2 plays w/ them I have to say that they looked awful (especially their starting unit) and they were able to win b/c PHI is a terrible team and the Wizards were seriously shorthanded for that game. I understand that Ty Lawson didn’t play in the last 2 games and he is probable for tonight’s game, but I think the Nuggets right now are a bit overrated and probably way too much confident, while the Jazz are playing their best basketball of the season with all players healthy. The Nuggets already faced the Jazz this season and crushed them @UTA 100-81 but that was the time where John Lucas III was starting for the Jazz and playing 34 minutes…. Enough said! My fair line for this contest is DEN-6/-8 points so we have some edge on the Underdog getting double digits points and therefore I’m taking the Utah Jazz as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 821 Utah Jazz (+10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Plays 12/06: Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics

Denver  at Boston

NBA - 809 Denver Nuggets @ 810 Boston Celtics Denver is now 0-3 on the second night of a back to back after losing to the Cavaliers last Wednesday. Ty Lawson was awful by shooting 1-13 from the field and the Nuggets were outrebounded by the Cavaliers 58-43. By allowing 20 offensive boards, the Nuggets couldn’t go out in transition like they wanted and this helps to explain their lowly 88-points outcome. Tonight they will face the Celtics on the road on a pretty favorable matchup for them. Boston's defense has been decent, but a bit overrated due to the fact they have been facing plenty of Eastern Conference teams. Their mindset is to lock down the opposing perimeter game, but they are exposed near the basket with their undersized and inexperienced frontcourt. I understand that they are ranked #11 in the league allowing 59% FG at the rim, but when they faced elite teams that generate easy points near the basket, the Celtics struggled in this area. On their last game they allowed John Henson to shot 4-8 FG, Ekpe Udoh 4-7 FG, Ersan Ilyasova 3-5 FG and even Zaza Pachulia 3-5 FG. Against Western conference teams this season, they allowed Memphis to score 95 and 100 points, Portland 109, Houston 109 and San Antonio 104 points! Denver will be able to score plenty of easy points against the Celtics who are as well a poor defensive rebounding team, so I expect an offensive bounce back game from them tonight. Boston has been shooting well from long range except a terrible 4-19 3pts performance at Milwaukee in a back to back game, so they should generate some points against the Nuggets as well, however the Nuggets as a top team from the West is vastly superior than this Celtics team and I think they will win with some ease. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Over and the Nuggets in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809 Denver Nuggets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/18: Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Denver  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 505 Denver Nuggets @ 506 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #1 It's good that Oklahoma City faced a shorthanded Milwaukee team, as they would have lost the game against the Bucks at 100%. Oklahoma City showed a clear lack of energy and they were coming from tough road games at LA against the Clippers and at Golden State and so, they couldn't handle the spot very well. They struggled everywhere offensively with just 17 assists: they were poor down low and both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook couldn't even get 10 FT attempts, something that shows their clear lack of aggression during the game. Thanks to that, Milwaukee was able to keep fighting for the win, even though they had pretty much no inside game with Zaza Pachulia shooting 3-13 FG! Milwaukee managed to get some offensive production from transitions with 16 fast break points and some outside shooting via O.J. Mayo. Oklahoma City's tired starters were clearly saved by their bench, with their main five bench players (Collison, Lamb, Adams, Jackson and Fisher) having net positives of +16, +10, +10, +11 and +5, while the best of the starting five was Westbrook with a +8! Denver is coming from a clear loss at Houston, where their defense was horrible. Of course starting a frontcourt formed by J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried is a bad idea for any team that wants to have a good defensive performance, as they both struggle on protecting the basket and on their defensive positioning. However, Denver's guards weren't much better on defense. Houston's backcourt did whatever they wanted on offense, with easy pick and rolls and a kick out game that worked perfectly with Houston shooting 9-21 3pts, but also 23-30 (77%) FG near the basket! Of course Denver's offense also created some good production, as Houston's perimeter defense is very soft and so, Denver's most aggressive players had success against them: Ty Lawson with 11-19 FG and Wilson Chandler with 5-10 FG, but that wasn't enough especially because Dwight Howard had a good day at the free throw line with 17-24 FT! I believe Oklahoma City's effort tonight will be much better. They are coming back home and they will be facing a divisional rival, so I expect them to be fired up for tonight. With Denver struggling to stop the opposing guards to have big games against them, I believe that the Nuggets will heavily struggle against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, especially because Denver's Head Coach Brian Shaw will start once again Hickson and Faried in the frontcourt and they won't protect the basket at all. Also Serge Ibaka has been playing on a beast mode and he will have the edge over Faried, who is far from his best right now. Denver's offense is still quite inconsistent, as Brian Shaw is yet to find the right rotations on the team, so with their bad shooting, I expect Oklahoma City to pack the paint and defend them well. Therefore, I believe Oklahoma City will pick up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/15: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

Minnesota  at Denver

NBA - 713 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 714 Denver Nuggets Play #8 Denver is coming from a home win against the Lakers, but they weren't convincing at all in that win. Their perimeter shooting was poor as usual, with only Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler being a bit more consistent on long range shooting. What saved the Nuggets were their 23 offensive rebounds, as even their decision to pound the Lakers down low didn't work greatly, as they shot just 19-37 (51.4%) FG at the rim and 9-19 FG from 4-9 feet. Considering that they struggled to be effective in the paint against a Lakers undersized team that was on a back to back spot, these aren't good news when they will be facing a much tougher Minnesota team tonight. First of all, Minnesota is #1 in the league on transition defense, so Denver won't be able to score their usual fast break points and that's going to be a massive problem for them tonight, as their outside shooting is poor, their offense on half court is also very unimaginative, so they generally need to be effective down low and on transition to have good offensive games. As that won't likely happen tonight, I believe Denver will struggle on offense in here.  On the other side, I expect Minnesota's offense to suffer a letdown tonight, after a massive offensive game at home against Cleveland last Wednesday. Minnesota was completely "in the zone" in that game, with Corey Brewer shooting 5-5 3pts and Robbie Hummel on his first start ever shooting 2-4 3pts! Even Ricky Rubio shot 1-1 3pts! No way they will have two back to back performances like this! Denver's transition defense was ridiculous at Phoenix where they allowed 37 fast break points to the Suns. Their head coach Brian Shaw was so furious at his team that Denver bounced back to allow just 8 and 5 fast break points on their last two games. I also believe that Denver's athletic frontcourt will cause problems to the Wolves' offense, as when they aren't able to put the ball with quality down low, they struggle to generate any kind of offensive flow. Therefore, I believe we have the right spot and matchup to take the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Denver Nuggets NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

DENVER NUGGETS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	95.1	2
Offense	110.4	5
Defense	105.1	11
Rebound	51.5	5

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	51.5	7	eFG%	49.3	13
TO%	13.6	11	TO%	14.3	8
Reb%	31.4	1	Reb%	28.2	27
FT%	21.6	9	FT%	19.3	7

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	8-9	107.7	108.4
December	9-6	111.4	105.3
January	12-3	111.4	106.3
February	8-4	118.2	109.8
March	13-2	113.3	103.5
April	7-1	114.4	104.6

The Nuggets were supposed to be the Western Conference’s biggest outsider last season with the signing of Andre Iguodala in the offseason, while their tremendous depth would give them a huge edge during the regular season.

However, Denver started the season with an 11-12 record on the first 23 games of the regular season. But it’s important to note that their early schedule was incredibly hard with 6 home games and 17 road games! Once the Nuggets started to play at home more often, they started to crush their opponents.

The Nuggets eventually peaked in March, where they managed to have a 15-game winning streak, where Denver defeated teams like the LA Lakers, Oklahoma City, NY Knicks, Memphis, Chicago and once again Oklahoma City! Wilson Chandler was already comfortable on the team after missing the first two months of the season, something that reinforced the strength of the team’s depth, while the Nuggets had also a dynamic pressuring style on defense that was quickly transformed into easy points on offense via turnovers. In a particular stretch, the Nuggets scored 62, 50, 68 and 72 points in the paint in games against the Knicks, Memphis, Chicago and Oklahoma City!

But then in April, in a game against Dallas, Danilo Gallinari severely injured himself and missed the rest of the season. He wasn't having a particular efficient season, but his versatility was the key for all the crazy small lineups that George Karl inserted on the court, especially with Gallo at the PF position.

Still, the Nuggets managed to get the #3 seed on the Western Conference, but with an alarming record of 19-22 on the road that was compensated with an incredible league-best 38-3 home record, while also having a 28-13 ATS record in those games.

Their first round opponent on the playoffs were the Golden State Warriors in a tough matchup for the Nuggets, as the Warriors’s offense used a jump shooting style and they were also a good defensive rebounding unit, so they could expose Denver’s weaknesses in both defense, where Denver gambled too much on the perimeter to create turnovers leaving their opponents wide open (#19 on 3pts defense), and offense, where the Nuggets had been the best offensive rebounding team in the league during the regular season, but they would be facing a top defensive rebounding team this time.

The story of how that series went is well-known, as even though they won the Game 1 of the series on the last shot and with Golden State losing David Lee for the series due to injury, the Nuggets were outplayed and lost the series. Coach George Karl didn't help himself and increased his bad reputation in the playoffs of poor adjustments by abdicating from his big lineup just to match Golden State’s small ball by putting Wilson Chandler as the team’s starting center.

Offseason Report:

Even though there weren't a lot of changes in the team’s roster, the Nuggets suffered deep changes on its organization. In an unexpected way, George Karl was fired and replaced by Brian Shaw, who has finally the opportunity of being a NBA Head Coach. Then, GM Masai Ujiri departed to Toronto, added by Andre Iguodala’s decision to move to Golden State instead of continuing in Denver. Suddenly, the Nuggets lost their GM, Head Coach and the team’s most impactful player in the previous season…

Still, the Nuggets had some changes on its roster, but no newly signed player will have the impact that Andre Iguodala had on the team last season. Denver signed Nate Robinson and Randy Foye to give more depth to the backcourt, while they also got J.J. Hickson and Darrell Arthur to improve the team’s frontcourt.

NBA Premium Play 05/02: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 543 Denver Nuggets @ 544 Golden State Warriors

Projected Line: Denver by 2 points

I've read some comparison between tonight's game and the Game 6 of the Warriors/Mavericks series in 2007, where Golden State crushed Dallas and won the series that night. I expect things to be different tonight. On the last game of this series, Denver played like they should always play against Golden State, with a big lineup, grabbing 55% of the rebounds and having a 50-24 edge at the paint. It's tough to separate their good spot in Game 5 from the improvements from the lineup changes, but I saw the Nuggets to defend rather well during the second half of the regular season and attacking the rim like they should. The Warriors came back at the end on Game 5 because Denver tried to play small again with Andre Miller and Ty Lawson on the backcourt.

Denver's main problem has been Kenneth Faried's defense, who seems to be lost all the time around the court trying to defend Harrison Barnes, who has been very good from the 3pts line, even though he is a rookie and still quite raw. On the other hand, Denver defended Stephen Curry better with Andre Iguodala and Ty Lawson, but what was the most interesting was the Warriors's new mindset. Take a look at their volume of isolation plays throughout the series: 8.60%, 12.30%, 19.80%, 23.80%, 22.90%! Over the last three games, their ISO ball has been around 20%, close to the level of the Knicks!

The main issue for the Warriors tonight might be Andrew Bogut, who tweaked his ankle in Game 5. Bogut was able to go through a light workout yesterday despite tweaking the ankle, so while we don't think it's a serious concern, it's always worth noting when it comes to Bogut's surgically-repaired ankle. He was ineffective in his 18 minutes in Game 5 and the Warriors will need more from him on tonight's game. With Bogut being limited, Denver will have a huge edge on rebounds over the Warriors. After three games where the Warriors surprisingly outrebounded the Nuggets, Denver grabbed 56.71% and 54.38% of the rebounds on the last two games of the series! Not only the Nuggets are winning the boards battle, as they are consequently creating second chance points plus limiting the Warriors's offensive flow. I see Denver having more chances to win tonight than the Warriors and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 543 Denver Nuggets (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/28: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

NBA - 515 Denver Nuggets @ 516 Golden State Warriors

Projected Lines: 208 points | Denver by 5 points

The Game 3 of this series saw Denver being more competitive than they had been on Game 2. I didn't like the fact that George Karl abandoned his usual lineup with Kenneth Faried and Kostas Koufos on the frontcourt, but at least Faried moved much better on Game 3 than he had done in Game 2. Denver's improvements were mostly on defense, especially on the 1st half. The Nuggets trapped the pick and roll consistently and they were effective in removing Klay Thompson out of the game. Inexplicably, Denver abandoned that game plan in the second half. I don't know what happened, but that was the key for their loss. I believe Denver will be more focused in following their gameplan for the whole 48 minutes today.

The last game between these two teams had 218 points scored, but its 2nd half was a reflection of what I expect it will be happen tonight. Golden State did a great defensive job with Andrew Bogut managing to do a solid job in limiting Denver's rim offense and especially in avoiding the Nuggets to score second chance points. However, Denver with a similar approach to Game 3 should have more chances of winning tonight. Of course Stephen Curry is an incredible shooter, but Golden State also benefited from an incredible shooting of Jarrett Jack and Harrison Barnes in the previous game, as they shot a combined of 17-29 FG, something close to impossible of being repeated today. This will be the first time the two teams have just 1 day off to rest between games and therefore, Denver's superior depth should be the key in here. In the last game, Golden State's starters played more than 36 minute excluding Bogut and they will pay the price today. Denver will come aggressive and I expect to win the boards battle for the first time this season. This should give them a relatively comfortable in here, on a well fought contest like last game's second half was. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 212,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Denver Nuggets (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/26: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

Denver  at Golden State

NBA - 734 Denver Nuggets @ 735 Golden State Warriors Projected Line: Golden State by 3 points In the Game 2 of this series, the Warriors used a small lineup with Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson playing together on the backcourt, while Harrison Barnes was sent into the PF position to defend Wilson Chandler, who isn't a bad matchup for the Warriors. This wasn't the first time at all that Golden State used this 3-guard combo, but what changed was Barnes at the PF position. The most curious part of this game was an in-game interview in mid-3rd quarter (GSW leading it by 96-80) where George Karl was asked what he would change to the game and he answered "play faster"! I had already mentioned that Golden State's offense is really a bad matchup for Denver, as their weakest point on defense is their spot up defense due to their focus being in packing the paint. Now for Game 3, it has been widely reported that George Karl will insert both Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler in the starting frontcourt, with a lineup composed by Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler, Andre Iguodala, Evan Fournier and Ty Lawson. Of course this lineup will be more mobile, however Faried is still a 50% physically right now. But still the Nuggets's defense isn't used to play with this lineup and there are no miracle changes in two days! Denver's main problem is that they need to have two key edges to beat Golden State: offensive rebounding (they won't have it with Faried as their center) and transition offense (as in a pure shooting battle between these two teams, the Warriors will outshoot them 9 times out of 10). It seems ridiculous that the Nuggets attempted one more three-pointer than Golden State in Game 2! On the other hand, the Warriors are being very smart on this series. They are abdicating of grabbing offensive boards just to go back to defense as soon as possible to prevent Denver from torching them on transitions, who scored just 8 fast break points who scored in Game 2! Denver should do a bit better on this area tonight, but they will still use a lineup without great shooting skills, besides Wilson Chandler who is an inconsistent shooter. So, the Nuggets are making a dangerous option with these changes tonight. Unlike Denver, Golden State is very familiarized with their 3-guards lineup. Stephen Curry will play even though he is a bit limited with an ankle injury right now, but with him on court, the Warriors will continue shooting well from the outside against the Nuggets. Golden State is the best spot up shooting team in the league, while Denver's spot up defense is the worst in the league, so no way the Warriors regress big time on their shooting tonight, in comparison to their insane Game 2 shooting. A small regression perhaps, but Golden State won't be shooting 30's% FG tonight. The Warriors seem more ready to play at a nice level tonight than the Nuggets and with the crowd fired up for their first home game of the postseason, I expect the Warriors to pick up an important win tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 735 Golden State Warriors (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/23: Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 725 Golden State Warriors @ 726 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: 212 points

The Game 1 of this series had a supersonic pace of almost 99, something that classifies pretty much as a run and gun kind of game. That's normal considering this is the style both teams like to play, however both offenses struggle and couldn't react to the adjustments that both defenses made, a surprise effect that won't happen once again tonight. The Nuggets's offense really missed Kenneth Faried and this was the key why I took the Warriors on Game 1. Wilson Chandler played 39 minutes to replace Faried and he actually had 13 rebounds, but the problem is that Chandler plays much further from the basket than Faried. This is proved with the fact that Chandler shot 0-1 FG at the rim, while he attempts 11 shots from +16 feet! He was another "guard" shooting away from the basket and this isn't something that the Nuggets's offense is used to have. This made Andrew Bogut's defensive task much easier, but with Faried back tonight, I expect Denver to pound the basket much more tonight, after a still decent outcome of 18-33 FG at the rim on Game 1! This will only benefit Denver's perimeter game, as Golden State will nice to close more the paint and therefore leave more space on the outside.

On the other side, David Lee got injured on Game 1 and he is now out for the season. By the way, he was struggling on Game 1 with 4-14 FG! Denver made the smart decision of double teaming Stephen Curry early on the possessions to force him to pass the ball. He didn't look ready for this kind of pressure and that definitely affected his mindset. Even though he shot 7-20 FG, he had a horrible start of the game, where he missed some wide open shots, something very uncharacteristic for him. Nevertheless, Golden State dished 27 assists, while showing a good ball movement! I expect the Warriors to be ready for the extra pressure on Curry. 

I expect tonight's game to be once again a fast paced contest, but with both offenses being much more efficient than they were on Game 1. Without David Lee on court, the Warriors will have to play even smaller than usual, with Draymond Green having some minutes at the PF position. Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 725/726 Over 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/20: Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 703 Golden State Warriors @ 704 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: Denver by 4 points

We know how great the Nuggets have been this season at home, where they were close to invincible during the regular season. They have a lot of depth, but Danilo Gallinari's and Kenneth Faried's injuries are very concerning on this specific matchup against Golden State. Evan Fournier will start at the SG position on this game, a rookie out of France, he averaged just 11.6 minutes per game during the regular season. But thanks to a late-season surge via injuries to Danilo Gallinari/Kenneth Faried, he's earned the trust of coach George Karl. The Nuggets will roll with Ty Lawson, Fournier, Andre Iguodala, Wilson Chandler and Kosta Koufos as their starters. Corey Brewer and Andre Miller will see significant time as guards off the bench.

Wilson Chandler will play at the PF position and even though he is a pretty decent player, he doesn't have the same rebounding skills that Faried possesses. Chandler is a way better shooter than Faried, but he shoots much further from the basket than Faried generally does, something that will remove the Nuggets's offensive game from near the rim, the area where their offense really excels. Note that Faried average 11.5 ppg, 11.3 rpg (4.5 off reb per game) and 2.3 bpg on the four games that Denver had against Golden State in the regular season. Andrew Bogut may be the key for the Warriors down low. Note that even though Bogut has been in and out of the lineup this season due to physical problems, Golden State was the best team in the league in defensive rebounding with a great 75.5% defensive rebound rate. With the Nuggets missing Faried, Golden State should prevent Denver from grabbing offensive boards today.

Denver's defensive system is built to pack the paint, get the defensive rebound and go out in transition. They gamble so much in order to force turnovers that obviously their perimeter defensive numbers can't be good. In fact, they were #20 in the league during the regular season on 3pts defense with 36.3% allowed and #30 in spot up defense with 1.05 PPP allowed. If there is a team that can pound Denver on their defensive weakness is Golden State, who led the league during the regular season in 3pts shooting with 40,3% and 42.1% after the All Star break! 

Danilo Gallinari's absence is important for Denver because he would be a bad matchup for the Warriors's defense, as coach Mark Jackson loves to play Jarrett Jack, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson together during major minutes. So, a potential matchup against Denver playing with Danilo Gallinari and Andre Iguodala in the perimeter would cause a huge size edge favoring the Nuggets. Besides that, both Gallinari and Iguodala are excellent defenders, with the Italian player improving a lot defensively this season. With Fournier on the lineup instead, combined with Faried's recent injury, Denver will be a bit lost, as they aren't used to play without two of their most important players on the roster. I believe Golden State will be much more competitive than most people expect on this series and this will start on the Game 1 of the series. Therefore, I'll be taking the Warriors in here. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Golden State Warriors (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/14: Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets

Portland  at Denver

NBA - 709 Portland Trailblazers @ 710 Denver Nuggets Projected Line: Denver by 17 points We have a huge mismatch in here in both ends of the floor favoring the Nuggets. Portland is currently without their two best wing defenders in Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, something that is a disaster for them if we add the fact that Portland's interior defense is also very poor. This allows their opponents to pound them down low and this is why exactly what the Nuggets's offense does best, as they are #1 in the league in points in the paint per game! So, it isn't a surprise that Portland allowed an average of 54 points in the paint over their last 10 games! The Blazers have been losing their games against top teams recently, with all those games being at home, where they are more competitive. On this road game at Denver, it will be very hard for the Blazers to remain competitive, as the Blazers have no depth to compete against the high power motor of the Nuggets. Portland's transition defense has been ridiculously bad lately with 1.31 PPP allowed on their last 10 games, so I expect Denver to pound them today. The Nuggets are coming from a tough overtime loss at Dallas and they are fighting to secure the #3 seed in the West, so I expect them to have a blowout win today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Denver Nuggets (-14) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/29: Brooklyn Nets @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 869 Brooklyn Nets @ 870 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: 200 points | Denver by 3 points
Since Denver managed to get a big win at Oklahoma City last week, they haven't been showing their normal levels of intensity in both ends of the floor. They are being still competitive and they could have won their last game at San Antonio, but they aren't even dominating the lowly teams anymore. This has been visible with their 1-point and 6-points home wins over Philadelphia and Sacramento respectively and especially, on their huge blowout loss at New Orleans who was missing Greivis Vasquez in that game. There are several reasons for the Nuggets to be struggling right now. Perhaps the biggest one is the fact that their perimeter shooting has been declining, as when a team shoots 30% FG from 16-23 feet and 28% 3pts on their last five games, it's hard for them to dominate their opponents like they used to do in early-March!

For this specific matchup against the Nets, Denver would be in theory a very tough matchup for Brooklyn, as the Nets's defense struggles against great transition teams due to their slow footed backcourt. This is why the Nuggets were able to be competitive at Brooklyn earlier on the season, even though they were on a terrible spot at the time, as they were playing their final game of a road trip and they were also shorthanded. The Nets just couldn't stop Ty Lawson due to his speed and he ended that game with 8-11 FG and 9 assists. The problem for Denver is that Ty Lawson will be out of tonight's game and so, the Nuggets lose most of their transition skills without their quickest player on court. This will put Andre Miller as the team's starting PG and he lacks the speed to pound Deron Williams on defense. On the other hand, Danilo Gallinari is also banged up and he is currently struggling in both ends of the floor because of that.

As if that wasn't enough for the Nuggets, Brooklyn is also playing some great basketball lately. Their frontcourt is so physical that I don't expect to see Denver's frontline having their usual dominance at the rim and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Brooklyn is actually able to dominate the boards battle on this contest. Kostas Koufos is just an average defender and so, I expect Brook Lopez to own him tonight with his post up moves. JaVale McGee should also have problems to stop Lopez due to his lack of discipline. Kenneth Faried will also have a tough time against Reggie Evans, who is simply dominating the boards with some insane rebounding numbers!

Denver may be a machine at home, but I believe they will happy tonight if they just managed to win tonight's game. Brooklyn seems to be in much better form right now than them and the Nets should also have a good number of matchup edges tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Brooklyn tonight. As I expect to see Denver to struggle on offense, I don't expect this game to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 869/870 Under 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 869 Brooklyn Nets (+6,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 03/27: Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 771 Denver Nuggets @ 772 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: 204 points

We are in front of two teams who are playing below their potential on their last few games. They have been winning most of them, but there's something missing in both teams. San Antonio has been missing some consistency on offense. Tony Parker has returned to the lineup, but he isn't at 100% physically right now:

"I'm going to do my best to get back to 100 percent" Tony Parker said. 

Tim Duncan has been simply amazing, but the Spurs's second unit has been surprisingly struggling as of late. The good news if that the Spurs have regrouped on defense against their awful defensive game against the Cavaliers, as they had defensive ratings of 101.33, 94.18 and 106.52 on their last three games against Golden State, Utah and Houston: good offensive teams!

On the other side, Denver's offensive machine is also struggling with consistency. Without Ty Lawson, the Nuggets lose their fastest player, their best dribble penetrator and their best outside shooter. Andre Miller is a good floor general, but he is a veteran and so, he is much slower than Lawson. Denver's outside shooting has been very inconsistent as well, as they are very predictable on offense without Lawson and so, San Antonio should be able to do a good defensive job today. The only problem the Spurs's defense has been having lately is on their 3pts defense with 45.2% 3pts allowed on their last 10 games, but Denver isn't a good outside shooting team. On the other hand, Denver's defense has been an elite unit on their last 10 games, excluding their last game in New Orleans, where they came out flat and with no energy. The Spurs's offense has been very inconsistent lately and so, I expect Denver to perform a good defensive bounce back today. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be similar to the first two games between these two teams this season that had 226 and 218 points. I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 771/772 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 03/23: Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets

NBA - 509 Sacramento Kings @ 510 Denver Nuggets

Projected Lines: 226 points | Denver by 9 points

Being on a huge winning streak can be tough for a team, especially on their mentality. When teams are playing that well, it's impossible not to relax against lowly teams. We have the recent examples of Miami at Cleveland and Denver against Philadelphia. The same will happen tonight to Denver when they face the lowly Kings. After tonight's game, Denver will play at New Orleans and then they will play at San Antonio, in a game where they will be fired up to play against a top team. However, the same won't happen tonight and Sacramento's offense has good tools to cause a lot of problems to Denver tonight. Their long range shooting has been great and the team has been on fired since the All Star break with 41.6% 3pts! Denver's defense is built to pack the paint and give space on the outside and so, they are #30 in the league on spot up defense. 

Sacramento's offense has been playing really well lately with a lot of aggressiveness and since their home loss against Denver, they only had one blowout loss at LA against the Lakers due to ta poor second half. Besides that, they crushed Phoenix, Chicago and the LA Lakers, while they also defeated Minnesota and lost by 4 points in Golden State and by 2 points at home against Milwaukee. On the other side, Sacramento's defense is indeed very poor and so, Denver will have massive edges on offense tonight. Ty Lawson will return to the lineup and with the Kings having such a poor rim defense, a horrible pick and roll ball handler defense and also a weak transition defense, no wonder Denver has scored over 120 points on their first three games of the season against the Kings. I expect a super high scoring game tonight, but with Sacramento's offense taking advantage of their edges to turn this game into a competitive one. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Kings and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 223 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Sacramento Kings (+12,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline