NBA Free Premium Play 04/06: Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets

Denver  at Houston

NBA - 509 Denver Nuggets @ 510 Houston Rockets ***FREE Premium Play*** Looks like Ty Lawson is OUT for this contest and in my opinion, without him, the Nuggets won’t have a chance in this potential fast paced contest vs. HOU. Lawson was related to the bench in the last game (he missed a team meeting) and the Nuggets’ starting lineup looked awful and got quickly outscored by the Grizzlies.  Eventually, the Nuggets were able to make a rally w/ Lawson on the court and w/ DEN’s coach using some super small ball lineups w/ Lawson + Brooks + Foye! They had some success because the Grizzlies really don’t “know” how to deal w/ such small ball teams. However, this won’t be the case tonight vs. Rockets. After losing 3 straight games, the Rockets defeated the Thunder in the last game in a big game for them. Without Beverly, HOU doesn’t have any capable perimeter defensive player but the good news is that Lawson is OUT as well… DEN defense has been atrocious vs. good offensive teams… they have allowed 108 and 133 points to San Antonio, 117 to OKC or 122 points to the Mavericks! Brooks & Foye will be overmatched by Harden and Lin! With the Rockets scoring so easily, the Nuggets without Lawson don’t have the proper offensive “punch” to hang around w/ HOU on the road and so, I’m taking the Rockets tonight as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Houston Rockets (-10.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/22: Houston Rockets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Houston  at Cleveland

NBA - 503 Houston Rockets @ 504 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #1 After struggling a bit offensively vs. teams that have good interior defenses like OKC & CHI, the Rockets bounced back pretty well and had 3 straight great overall offensive games vs. MIA, UTA & MIN. Not only they shot well the ball from the outside w/ 38-86 3pts (44% clip), but they scored in transition w/ 20, 30 and 25 fast break points while they also crushed their opponents near the basket w/ 54, 58 and 60 points in the paint! I don’t think that the Cavaliers will be able to slow them down, especially w/ a perimeter unit of Jack, Waiters & Gee. The key question for this contest is related w/ CLE offense vs. HOU defense… K. Irving is OUT but the Cavs showed some nice ball movement without him vs. MIA & OKC with 27 assists in each game. S. Hawes has been playing well as of late and for this contest I expect him to be decent vs. HOU’s centers that aren’t mobile and don’t go to “outside”. CLE is playing “faster” lately and this fits well vs. HOU so we can expect this contest to be a fast paced one w/ both teams scoring @ decent rate. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 204 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/13: Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls

Houston  at Chicago

NBA - 691 Houston Rockets @ 692 Chicago Bulls Play #1 My fair line for this contest is 196 points and due to some early line movement, we have now the proper edge to pull the trigger w/ the Over. The Bulls offense is far from being elite but they are playing quite well for some time. D.J. Augustin has been a nice surprise for them w/ his nice outside shooting ability, but the key factor has been J. Noah. His passing ability on the high post is tremendous as he reads perfectly well the game.  This is where I think that the Bulls will have some offensive edge over the Rockets IMO. HOU’s defense can be lazy especially off the ball (Harden’s struggles are well documented), and I expect the Bulls to explore this HOU’s defensive weakness. On the other side, CHI’s defense is having some problems to stop opposing quick guards so far in the season. Tony Parker really abused them in the last game and the Rockets have in Harden and Lin, two bad individual matchups for them. Howard is coming from a tough and bad game @OKC, and he will be fired up for tonight. Noah is a great defensive player but his main strength is more related into being a phenomenal “help defender”. With Howard on the court, he simply can’t provide such help and the Rockets will explore Boozer’s awful overall defense. With both teams having some key offensive edges to explore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 691/692 Over 192.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/11: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Houston  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 561 Houston Rockets @ 562 Oklahoma City Thunder Play #6 OKC has won the first 2 H2H’s so far in this season and actually they have been dominating HOU since James Harden was traded. However, note that in the first 2 H2H’s games, OKC was rested while HOU was playing @b2b spot in BOTH games! In the first game, James Harden and Dwight Howard combined for 17 points on 6-22 shooting, as Houston lost 117-86. In the second contest, it was that epic HOU collapse in the second half as they scored only 19 points in the entire half! What will change for tonight?! Well, first of all, OKC defense has been pretty awful lately and this isn’t a mere case of “bad effort”! They are allowing way too many wide open shots and they are doubling in the post without any kind of discipline! Because HOU has Dwight Howard in the post and Perkins is still injured, OKC will have to double Howard down low, and this will create some good looks for HOU’s shooters! Also, James Harden is usually defended by Thabo Sefolosha and guess what… Sefolosha is injured and will miss tonight’s game! Without Perkins and Thabo, HOU’s 2 best players will have some individual edge in their matchups and ultimately this will make the difference as I expect the Rockets to be extremely competitive tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 561 Houston Rockets (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Washington Wizards @ Houston Rockets

Washington  at Houston

NBA - 719 Washington Wizards @ 720 Houston Rockets ***FREE Premium Play*** I expect this contest to be a fast paced one w/ both teams having some good edges on the offensive end as my fair line in here is 208/210 points. WAS is coming from a competitive game @MEM played in “MEM’s” terms – slow paced, grind out game. Note that HOU played twice MEM not a long time ago, and also both games were slow paced affairs as the Grizzlies really control the tempo of the game of their games. The same thing won’t happen tonight as both teams want to push the pace and have aggressive quick-footed guards… WAS defense has been decent as of late, but there is a “bad” pattern for them related w/ their backcourt defense: last night, MEM’s PG N. Calathes went 8-12 FG for 18 pts & 6 assists… SAC’s PG Isaiah Thomas torched them w/ 11-24 FG, 8-8 FT for 30 points… and both CLE’s guards Irving & Waiters combined to score 47 points against WAS. Obviously, there is a clear regression in WAS’s P&R defense and unfortunately for them, they will face one of the best P&R offensive teams in the league in the Rockets, and so, I expect HOU to be efficient offensively. On the other side, I expect WAS to cause some problems to HOU defense as well. HOU’s best defensive guard P. Beverly is banged up (game time decision) and even though HOU is coming from b2b good perimeter defensive performances (6-15 & 6-25 3pts), we just can’t ignore that they have faced MIL & MIN without their best shooter K. Martin, so they enjoyed some favorable matchups in the last games. The first h2h between these two teams ended up w/ HOU winning 114-107 in an ultra fast paced affair w/ 36 total fast break pts scored & 106 points in the paint. I expect a similar type of game tonight and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Over 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/05 : Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

Phoenix  at Houston

NBA - 715 Phoenix Suns @ 716 Houston Rockets Play #5 PHX played horribly last night vs. CHI as their A/TO ratios have been truly horrible as of late: last night 12 assists vs. 21 TO’s but even in their easy win vs. CHA in the previous game, they had a subpar 13/13 A/TO ratio. This spot of b2b game isn’t easy for them but what really matters is that HOU is a horrible matchup for PHX! PHX offense really needs to be efficient in both P&R BH plays (w/ Dragic) and in transition! The problem is that HOU defense is ranked #6 defending P&R BH plays & #1 defending transition. HOU had 3 days off to rest and prepare this contest and they won’t take lightly this good Suns team because early on the season, PHX went @HOU and beat them outright w/ 97-88! In that game, Eric Bledsoe was the MVP of the game by playing 40minutes and having 7-14 FG, 20 pts and 7 assists but especially, he guarded J. Harden that had his worst offensive game of the season w/ 3-17 FG & 5 TO’s! Also that Jeremy Lin & C. Parsons didn’t play that game and so, tonight’s game will be another completely story favoring the Rockets in every aspect of the game. Howard will dominate down low, while this time, HOU backcourt will dominate PHX’s backcourt unit. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Houston Rockets (-7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 01/22: Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets

Sacramento  at Houston

NBA - 715 Sacramento Kings @ 716 Houston Rockets Play #5 HOU offense has been just phenomenal if we forget the monumental collapse @ second half vs. OKC! They are attacking the rim, their inside-out game has been terrific and most importantly, they are getting healthier, especially in the backcourt w/ Harden, Lin & Beverly. In the L6 games, they are averaging 55.3 points in the paint per game along w/ 17.7 fast break pts per game. For tonight’s contest I expect HOU offense to crush SAC’s awful defense that is primed for a tremendous letdown: This is going to be SAC’s last game of their current road trip – their fifth game in just 8 days! Despite winning “big” last night @NO, SAC’s coach didn’t promote any kind of rotation as Gay logged 42 minutes, Isaiah 39 minutes or Thompson 36 minutes… In fact, they were so focused in feeding Rudy Gay’s on the offensive end that they apparently forgot that they have to play tonight @ HOU. For some reason, SAC is 2-0 vs. HOU in the first 2 h2h games this season so we are dealing w/ revenge spot for HOU as well. In those two losses, HOU combined to shot just 14 of 55 beyond the arc - an awful 25.5% mark! Considering that SAC is dead last in the league in opponent 3P% (38.8%), I really don’t expect HOU to struggle once again from the outside. We catching HOU in a terrific offensive moment vs. one of the worst defensive teams in the league that have a terrible physical spot for tonight and will face a fired up team that have some revenge in their mind = blowout win! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Houston Rockets (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 12/12: Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Houston  at Portland

NBA - 503 Houston Rockets @ 504 Portland Trail Blazers Play #2 ***DOUBLE DIME PLAY*** The public just love the Over in this contest and the total line jumped @215.5 points. My fair line is 208/210 points so now we have the proper edge to make a big play w/ the UNDER. These two teams are great offensive teams but I think that defense will be a key factor for tonight due to the way the matchups will work. After being humiliated @Utah by losing & allowing 109 points to the lowly Jazz, the Rockets have now 3 solid consecutive great defensive games w/ Def. Rtg of 101.7, 84.0 and 94.2. In this stretch, note that the great Warriors offense was held to just 83 points! Houston defensive rebounding ranking in the league is a subpar #19 w/ 74.1% Defensive Rebounding% but lately they have been great in not allowing offensive boards to their opponents, L5 games = 81%! This is important because the Blazers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league (ranked #4 w/ 28.9%) and with the Rockets doing a solid job on the defensive glass, the Blazers won’t be able to score on second chances. POR in their L4 games grabbed 16, 17, 17 and 11 offensive boards but tonight they will have a tough task to get that many off. Reb. It might sound strange to say, but James Harden has looked better defensively lately. GSW offensive strategy was to explore Harden’s bad defense but he answered pretty well in that game, it was one of the biggest reasons why GSW struggled so badly offensively in that game. The perception is that the Rockets are a bad defensive team but I have them ranked #8 in defensive efficiency! On the other end, the Blazers defense will have some problems to contain Dwight Howard but their primary defensive principle – defend the 3pts line (they are ranked #6 allowing just 33.8%) is built to face a team like the Rockets who are #1 in Three Pointers Attempted per Game w/ 27.6 mark. Note that after their great shooting display @SAS, the Rockets are shooting only 28% behind the line (34-120) so we have a nice defensive edge in this key area. In the first h2h, the Rockets won on the road in a game that ended w/ 217 points. Here some factors that explains such high scoring outcome that won’t happen tonight: 1) The Rockets were playing w/ Asik & Howard together on the front and with Jeremy Lin & Harden on the backcourt. The current starting lineup w/ Beverly and Jones filling Asik & Lin makes the Rockets a better defensive team when compared vs. early on the season; 2) Robin Lopez battled foul trouble (played only 18 minutes) and his primary backup was Meyers Leonard! Obviously it was a field day for Howard (10-13 FG, 9-12 FT) as it was too easy to score near the basket. I have HOU w/ 27-41 FG near the basket in that game! Lopez is playing some solid basketball and Leonard was so bad defensively that he is out of the rotation right now! I'm taking the UNDER in here as my Double Dime Play! Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 215.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/23: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets

Minnesota  at Houston

NBA - 711 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 712 Houston Rockets Play #5 Houston is coming from a mega game at Dallas, where they lost at the end on a super high scoring contest. Dwight Howard had a massive game and started the contest with 11-11 FG, but he had a super easy matchup against Samuel Dalembert and DeJuan Blair. Things will be much tougher against Nikola Pekovic tonight. In fact, both the Rockets and the Wolves defend post up plays quite well. Adding to this the fact that Minnesota is #7 in the league on 3pts defense with just 34.8% 3pts allowed, the Wolves' defense should cause issues to the Rockets' offense. I believe both teams will indeed have some problems on offense, given the match ups on tonight's game. For this game to go over the total posted, this game would need to be played at an insane pace, with both teams wanting to push up the pace a lot. After what happened to the Wolves against Washington and the LA Clippers, where they played fast, tried to outscored their opponents and ended up getting crushed on transitions, even though they led the league on transition defense, I don't think Minnesota will actually want to push up the pace that much against a team that knows how to play in transition and how to take advantage of open space on the perimeter. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 216,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 11/13: Houston Rockets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Houston  at Philadelphia

NBA - 703 Houston Rockets @ 704 Philadelphia 76ers Play #6 The last thing Houston needed was to play a double overtime game at home against Toronto while having half of their roster battling illness. Dwight Howard, James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons all played more than 40 minutes. Perhaps the most interesting fact of this game for the future was that Coach Kevin McHale decided on half time to bench Omer Asik in the start of the second half and start Terrence Jones at the PF position. It looks like McHale is giving up on the idea of having both Howard and Asik on the lineup, better late than never! It's clear that the Rockets are incredibly banged up right now. Chandler Parsons played 48 minutes against the Raptors with back spasms and he doubted that he could play both games of the team's back to back games today and tomorrow. The same thing happens with James Harden and his sore feet.  Francisco Garcia is battling flu symptoms, while Omri Casspi is struggling with a knee injury. With Evan Turner scoring at least 18 points in every game this season and with all his potential opponents for tonight struggling physically, this might be a dream mismatch for Philadelphia tonight. Looking at how both teams play, this will be obviously a fast paced game.  Looking at the matchup between the Sixers' offense and the Rockets' defense, I believe that Houston will struggle if Kevin McHale insists in starting both Dwight Howard and Omer Asik on the frontcourt. Philadelphia' starting Center Spencer Hawes is someone who plays almost exclusively on the perimeter, while Thaddeus Young at the PF position is too quick for any Rockets' big men.  Philadelphia's offense focus on transition plays and pick and rolls led by rookie sensation Michael Carter-Williams, while Houston is the second worst team in the league in avoiding turnovers with a 17.1% TO/rate. The Rockets are indeed #3 in the league on transition defense, but I doubt that they will have the proper mindset and the physical conditions to actually defend well transition plays tonight. Regarding their pick and roll ball handler defense, it is quite weak especially on such poor physical spots as this one. Looking at Philadelphia's last game against San Antonio, what can they do better today against Houston that they couldn't against the Spurs? Well, first of all San Antonio committed just 12 turnovers, so Philadelphia could only score 16 points off turnovers in that game. I'm sure the Sixers will have more opportunities to score on this kind of situations tonight. But what made Philadelphia struggle so much on offense against San Antonio was their inability to make long range shots with just 1-15 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-19 3pts! This was a shame, as they did really well on scoring down low with 20-27 (74%) FG at the rim! I expect Philadelphia to bounce back on their long range shooting tonight. On the other hand, Philadelphia's defense had no chances against San Antonio's offense that used their sharp ball movement to torch the Sixers apart with 29 assists. That won't happen tonight, as Houston's season high in assists is just 21, while having a poor average of just 18.4 assists per game! Philadelphia's backcourt defense is surprisingly good and they are #5 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense! Therefore, I expect them to be able to limit Houston's quite stagnant offense tonight. I believe this is a great spot to back Philadelphia and face Houston, a team that is on a poor physical spot tonight, and so, I'll be taking the Sixers in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Philadelphia 76ers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Houston Rockets NBA Team Season Preview 2013-14

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Season Review 2012/13:

Advanced Stats
	Numbers	Rank
Pace	96.1	1
Offense	109.7	6
Defense	106.1	16
Rebound	50.9	9

4 Factors
Offense	Numbers	Rank	Defense	Numbers	Rank
eFG%	52.5	5	eFG%	50.2	19
TO%	14.9	30	TO%	13.5	19
Reb%	26.4	17	Reb%	24.8	2
FT%	23.2	4	FT%	19.6	9

Monthly Performance
	Record	OffRtg	DefRtg
November	7-8	107.2	107.0
December	10-6	112.0	108.4
January	8-9	109.8	108.0
February	6-5	118.7	113.3
March	9-5	111.7	104.2
April	5-4	110.4	106.3

Possibly, not even GM Daryl Morey was expecting that a player like James Harden would be available in the market at the start of the past season. Naturally, Morey didn’t even hesitate in acquiring Harden to Oklahoma City in exchange for some young talent plus Kevin Martin. Suddenly, the Rockets who weren’t playoff contenders became much more competitive with Harden having a breakthrough season that confirmed him as a real top player in the league.

In an organization that is characterized by a management that uses advanced metrics, Head Coach Kevin McHale had a similar mindset on coaching, as the Rockets would just focus on offense by using two areas of the court: the rim and behind the line that were considered the two most efficient/valuable zones.

%Shot Location (via hoopdata.com)
Distance	Rim	3-9feet	10-15feet	16-23feet	3pts
%vol	36.6%	9.9%	3.5%	11.9%	34.9%
Rank	3	20	30	30	2

The Rockets also played at a fast tempo and they were even the fastest paced team in the league last season by a considerable margin.

Possibly due to a lack of time to implement an offensive scheme, the Rockets’ offensive sets were simply based on pick and roll sets to use Harden well on the court, but that forced Jeremy Lin to play more off the ball, something that made him struggle early on. Against teams that had great individual defenders on the perimeter to slow down Harden, the Rockets struggled on offense. In fact, Houston went 2-12 on regular season games against San Antonio (Leonard), Memphis (Allen) and Denver (Iguodala)!

Eventually, the Rockets grabbed the last playoffs spot on the Western Conference by losing against the Lakers on the last game of the regular season. The Rockets faced the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs, in a terrible matchup for them, as nobody knows Harden better than his former team. Russell Westbrook’s injury gave some hope to the Rockets and even though Houston won two consecutive games after being down by 0-3 in the series, but they eventually lost the Game 6 of the series at home, ending their season in the process.

Offseason Report:

Dwight Howard was the most desired player in the offseason with several teams trying to convence him to sign with them. However, it was the Rockets who finally convinced Howard that they would give him the biggest chance of winning the title.

With a very young core of promising players, GM Darly Morey didn’t need to make a lot of moves. Carlos Delfino left the team, something that forced Morey to sign Reggie Williams, Ronnie Brewer and Omri Casspi, while he signed veteran Marcus Camby to improve the frontcourt.

NBA Premium Play 05/03: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 549 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 550 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 3 points

Houston has won the last two games of this series, including a huge win on the last game at Oklahoma City. However, I don't expect them to be able to replicate what they did to win the last game of this series. Oklahoma City's stagnant offense has been the norm since Russell Westbrook got injured, but the truth is that the "hero ball" has been the norm more in Houston than in Oklahoma City. The Rockets had just 15 assists on Game 5, a series low! According to mysynergy numbers, the Rockets had a volume of 31% on isolation plays, an absurdly high number that are similar to what the Knicks generally do. The good news is that Houston were on fire on the hero ball with 11-24 FG for a high 1.10 PPP on the last game of this series. They were impressively good on this area, as they had 0.39, 0.65, 0.56 and 0.86 PPP on isolations on the first four games of this series! All the role players of the Rockets played well, but Carlos Delfino won't play tonight, while Jeremy Lin will come off the bench. Houston has been playing well with Patrick Beverley, but with Jeremy Lin coming back, the team chemistry might get affected by the changes that this return will cause. 

Even though the Rockets shot well, they got completely outrebounded by grabbing just 46% of the rebounds, while committing 15 turnovers, with the Thunder committing just 9 turnovers. I believe that Houston will continue tonight with the same gameplan, but it's very unlikely that they will have the same incredible efficiency on the isolation plays. On the other side, I believe Oklahoma City will play better and especially take better decisions than they took on the previous game. Their decision of doing a hack-a-Asik happened when the Thunder had a huge momentum in the game and they were just down by 4 points and this was a terrible decision, as even though Asik isn't a good FT shooter, he isn't as bad as Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan for example. Asik is shooting 56% FT this season and he shot well with 13-18 FT on the last game. Kevin Durant played huge minutes, but he kept being efficient, while Reggie Jackson is also pretty comfortable at the starting PG position. Their problem on Game 5 was that Kevin Martin shot 1-10 FG, while Nick Collison played just 7 minutes. I believe this is where the Thunder will adjust tonight, with Martin playing better and if the Thunder really want to keep playing small ball, Collison will have to play more due to his good footspeed. 

The Thunder's offense has been playing well, even with Westbrook's absence, something that says a lot about Houston's defensive demerit. Of course Oklahoma City have been struggling to defend the Rockets's offense, but the way Houston used to win the last game via isolations won't be able to replicate tonight and so, I expect the Thunder to win tonight's game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 549 Oklahoma City Thunder (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/01: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 535 Houston Rockets @ 536 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Line: 203 points

Both teams are exhausted right now. I clearly felt that in Game 4 and of course, the 19-14 outcome in the fourth quarter shows that. Kevin Durant played 47 and 42 minutes on the last two games of this series and more than that, the ball goes into his hands in every possession, so the Rockets are double teaming him, while on the other hand, James Harden is clearly limited and with the Rockets's starters played more than 35 minutes each on the last game. Therefore, I expect some offensive regression from both teams tonight. Oklahoma City's offense is poor without Russell Westbrook. If they were messy with him, without him things only got considerably worse. Coach Scott Brooks can't adjust to anything and so, the Thunder are struggling a lot without their starting PG. Oklahoma City had just 14 and 18 assists on their last two games and nothing changed on the team's style. Scott Brooks simply put Reggie Jackson trying to do what Russell Westbrook does and he actually attempted 18 FGA, taking two more shots than Kevin Durant! The Rockets's defense is being quite smart by double teaming Kevin Durant, in order to force the remaining players to shoot the ball. The problem was that Oklahoma City actually shot quite well in Game 4. Kevin Durant was on fire by making a lot of tough shots, while Derek Fisher was an unexpected big game with 4-5 3pts. However, the Thunder's main problem on offense is the fact that they are being unable to involve their big men on offense. They shot just 6-11 FG at the rim, while shooting 4-6 FG from 10-15 feet, 10-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 11-25 treys! Looking at their poor ball movement, I don't believe the Thunder will be able to replicate such great shooting numbers tonight!

So, the Thunder's mindset for tonight will be clearly on defense. With all the focus on how the Thunder play without Russell Westbrook, Scott Brooks sees the issue for Oklahoma City's lapses being on the defensive end and less about the perception of poor offense.

“The scoring, I feel that we’re going to have enough as we continue to improve in what we do,” Brooks said. “Our scoring is going to be fine. We just have to continue to play defense.”

Unlike the Thunder, Houston had a decent inside game with 44 points in the paint, while Oklahoma City scored just 22 points in that area. Omer Asik was phenomenal with 7-10 FG and all the Rockets's role players had a nice game: Francisco Garcia, Carlos Delfino, Aaron Brooks. But the MVP of Game 4 was Chandler Parsons, who not only had a nice shooting game with 11-21 FG, as he had also 10 rebounds and 8 assists, while defending Kevin Durant! With James Harden being limited, it's tough for Houston to repeat the same offensive rate that they had in Game 4, as their role players are unlikely to be as effective on the road as they were at home on Game 4. The tendency of this series is to see a lot of "hero ball" being played, in a clear sign of lack of game plan and also lack of fresh legs. Therefore, looking at the current high totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 535/536 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/29: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 521 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 522 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Houston by 2 points

Oklahoma City won Game 3 with a lot of luck with that three-pointer by Kevin Durant. The Thunder started very well the game, but then Russell Westbrook's absence was quite evident, with the Thunder having a 30% volume on isolations and especially with them struggling to score in transition with just 6 fast break points and a horrible 1-7 FG on transition plays! Houston had a very slow start, but then they woke up and they outplayed the Thunder for most of the game. They have a clear edge on ball movement over the Thunder right now and I expect them to be super fired up for tonight to avoid a series sweep. The Rockets could have won Game 2 and 3 of this series, so they aren't like the Bucks or the Lakers, who seemed defeated throughout the whole series. Therefore, I expect Houston to show up tonight with extra motivation and beat the Thunder that aren't such a superior team without Russell Westbrook, as seen on Game 3. I'm taking the Rockets tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Houston Rockets (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 04/24: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 727 Houston Rockets @ 728 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Lines: 216 points | Oklahoma City by 15 points

Houston's gameplan on Game 1 completely failed and so, it has been reported that the Rockets will change the system by playing smaller on Game 2. The best way of exposing the Thunder's defense is to use frontcourt players who are good mid/long-range shooters. Players like Lebron James or Carmelo Anthony at the PF position can push Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins to the outside, where they struggled, as seen for example in last year's finals. The problem is that Houston has Greg Smith at the PF position, who is a old school PF player and so, they struggled in Game 1. Serge Ibaka easily controlled him and the Thunder's defense had a nice performance. In fact, Smith played just 17 minutes in Game 1, with the Rockets getting outscored by 34 points during that span!!! Besides that, Houston doesn't have an expanded playbook, it's just a bunch of pick and rolls with no diversity. Oklahoma City's pick and roll ball handler defense is an elite unit, especially against a player like James Harden that they know so well. 

On offense, the Thunder have Russell Westbrook crushing Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons gets too tired defending Kevin Durant to shoot well on offense. Besides that, Greg Smith is also a poor defender and the rookie Motiejunas is even worse! The solution for Houston is to play with a smaller lineup, but they will struggle even more on defense with that. Coach Kevin McHale said the following after Game 1:

"It wasn't any of their actions that hurt us. They had 21 points off of our turnovers and then offensively we got stagnant. We didn't get much pass-pass combination and we didn't have a whole lot of flow tonight offensively."

The Rockets will still want to attack off the dribble if Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison or Kendrick Perkins switch on screens and defend James Harden, Jeremy Lin or Chandler Parsons on the perimeter. They said the change must be what they do off the dribble. So, I have no doubt that Greg Smith will barely play on the remaining games of this series. Houston will then play with an even smaller than usual lineup and even though they will be a bit better on offense, their defense is going to be absolutely crushed by Oklahoma City. Therefore, I expect another blowout win for the Thunder tonight, on a super high scoring contest and so, I'll be taking both Oklahoma City and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 727/728 Over 213 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 728 Oklahoma City Thunder (-11,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/21: Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Houston  at Oklahoma City

NBA - 715 Houston Rockets @ 716 Oklahoma City Thunder Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 7 points I believe Houston will surprise a lot on the first game of this series. Oklahoma City has the tendency of relaxing a bit on their first game of the playoffs and that has happened over the past two seasons against Denver and Dallas. The Thunder have a very stubborn coach, who doesn't adjust to anything and keeps using the same rotations. On this case, Houston's small ball will have a good edge over Oklahoma City's big lineup with Kendrick Perkins being lost on court. The Thunder's starting center should barely play on this series, but with Scott Brooks, we know that Oklahoma City will use their traditional system, lineup and rotations, especially on the first game of a playoff series. A lot of discipline is needed to defend the spread offensive game of the Rockets. However, I expect Oklahoma City to see Russell Westbrook being wild once again on this contest by gambling too much on defense, while forcing jumpers on offense. Therefore, Houston will have a mindset edge on the first game of this series. During the regular season, the Thunder won two of the three games they played against Houston, however those two games were played on a back to back spot for the Rockets, something terrible for Houston, as they depend a lot from their starters, as they lack depth. This time, I expect the Rockets to surprise in here and turn this game into a ballgame. Therefore, I'll be taking Houston tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Houston Rockets (+11) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 04/12: Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 715 Memphis Grizzlies @ 716 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Memphis by 1 point

Memphis is on a missing to secure home court advantage on the first round of the playoffs and so, they need to keep winning their games. On the other hand, Houston is between the #6 and the #7 seed, but honestly I wouldn't be surprised if they prefer the #7 seed to avoid Denver, who crushed them repeatedly during this regular season. The Rockets will be without Chandler Parsons tonight and James Harden is also still playing banged up. Memphis is an elite defensive team and they are especially good on transition defense and on individual matchups like the one they will have against Harden tonight, so I expect Houston to struggle on offense tonight.

On the other side, the Rockets's post up defense has been horrible lately with 1.12 PPP allowed on their last five games and this is an area where the Grizzlies's offense excels with their powerful frontcourt. Memphis will also have Jerryd Bayless back for tonight, a player who provides to the team a nice scoring punch coming off the bench. I believe Memphis is not only a better team than Houston, as they will have more motivation to win tonight's contest, so I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715 Memphis Grizzlies (+2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 04/09: Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets

Phoenix  at Houston

NBA - 661 Phoenix Suns @ 662 Houston Rockets Projected Line: 216 points Houston is back to their regular level on offense, after some struggles on a four-game span where they faced four top teams: San Antonio, Indiana, Memphis and the LA Clippers. The team has also benefited from James Harden's return, who has already played his team's last three games. On the other hand, the pace factor of the Rockets has increased again on their last five games: 95.06, 93.56, 97.54, 94.06 and 101.43! Their number of fast break points scored and points in the paint have also improved as well. When the Rockets are playing well on offense, these two areas are where they do the most damage and they have averaged 21.5 fast break points and 54 points in the paint in their last four games! The Rockets couldn't have asked for a better opponent tonight than the Suns's terrible defense. Phoenix has been also playing at a very fast pace, while showing absolutely no defense whatsoever. A good offensive team that likes to play fast and has a good transition offense like the Rockets can have huge offensive outcomes against them. This is why Sacramento scored 117 points against the Suns, while the LA Clippers scored 126 points and Golden State 111 points. The Suns's transition defense is non-existent and so, they are allowing 1.28 PPP (Points Per Possession) on transitions over their last 10 games! On the other side, Phoenix's offense may not be as consistent as their defense (in the bad sense of course), but Goran Dragic can definitely explore Houston's poor PG defense, while the Suns have decent athleticism to score a decent number of points tonight against a poor Rockets defense in a fast paced contest. Therefore, I expect this game to be a very high scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 661/662 Over 211.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker