NBA - 505 San Antonio Spurs @ 506 Miami Heat
Projected line: 201 points | Miami by 10 pointsWill
San Antonio be able to stop the athleticism of Miami tonight? We know
that the Heat very rarely shoot from the outside, they have a rim
oriented offense with penetrations to the basket and when their opponent
loses the ball, they immediately start running to take advantage of
their fast break chances. For that reason, they are averaging 21.7
FB/game and they are also 6th in the league on transition plays with
1.21 PPP! The Spurs aren't a good defensive team in defending transition
plays, as they were clearly in their last game, where they allowed the
Suns to score 21 fast break points! Another important aspect for the
Spurs tonight is how they will be able to defend the rim, as only Denver
has more volume on their FG's at the rim than Miami! Even with a volume
of 35% at the rim, Miami is shooting 67% FG on this area! And with San
Antonio allowing 68% FG at the rim, they are toasted for tonight. So, we
have two important edges for Miami in two essential areas tonight:
transitions and rim offense. The main problem of Miami in their last two
losses was actually their rim offense, as they shot just 12-21 FG and
15-28 FG on this area. However, the Spurs won't be able to have the same
success, as they have such a poor rim defense.
On the other side, the best of the Spurs offense has been their
Spot-Up plays, where they are ranked 2nd with 1.09PPP and 22.20% volume.
They know how to pass the ball and to find the best spots to shoot the
ball. It's a fact that Miami's defense on Spot-Up plays is poor (27th
with 1.03 PPP allowed), however the Spurs won't have their rim offense
(29% volume at the rim) for this contest, as Miami is excellent on this
area, as they have traditionally been by allowing just 55% FG! So, all
the Spurs will have on their offense is their perimeter game. If they
are able to have a great game from this area, they may be competitive
tonight, but if some of their players are on a bad shooting night, they
will be completely destroyed tonight.
Even with the Spurs perimeter game working, they are into a very
tough matchup, as Miami on a bounce back spot will absolutely pound them
at the rim both offensive and defensively. Therefore, I'll be taking
Miami in here. Also, with Miami being able to pound the paint so easily
tonight and with the Spurs having an edge on the perimeter for tonight, I
came up with a totals projection of 201 points, good enough for me to
take the over in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 197,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Miami Heat (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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