NBA - 713 San Antonio Spurs @ 714 New Orleans Hornets
Projected line: 182 points
Even without Tim Duncan, the
Spurs managed to be competitive at Houston, mostly thanks to their
dynamic offense. Parker smashed the Rockets via P&R's 7-14 ball
handler and 6-7 FG roll man! Splitter showed the great player he used to
be in Europe and had a super game with 11-13 FG 25pts 10reb! Blair
struggled against Dalembert, but the bad team help defense of the
Rockets was exposed by the penetrations of the Spurs, who scored 60
points in the paint and shot 20-28 FG at the rim! The problem with the
Spurs was on the outside with 5-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-22 on treys!
Defensively, they continue with problems, even when their opponents
don't have power on the frontcourt.
Now, with 1 day of rest and with Tim Duncan back, the Spurs will
bring their dynamic offense. Both Splitter and Bonner have been playing
better lately and therefore, they aren't so dependent from their
backcourt. Note that the Hornets are one of the best teams on Spot-Up
defense (#3 with 23.30% volume and just 0.84 PPP), however the
transition offense of San Antonio may cause some damage on the Hornets
(their main struggle on defense: #27 by allowing 1.21 PPP!). The Hornets
have been having tremendous problems on the outside by shooting just
38% FG and 23% 3pts on their last 5 games, with their only good shooter
Belinelli struggling! However, the Hornets may have some edge on their
frontcourt against the poor interior defense of the Spurs, who are
allowing 67% FG at the rim and New Orleans has exactly their frontline
as their main strength on offense. They are #5 on offensive rebounds
with 1.10 PPP and as expected, the Spurs defense struggle on this area
by just #29 while allowing 1.21 PPP!
I believe both teams will be able to produce some offense on this
contest and even though this will be a low scoring contest, I don't
expect it to as low as the current lines are indicating, as I have came
up with a totals projection of 182 points, high enough for me to take
the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Over 177 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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