NBA - 511 Detroit Pistons @ 512 Houston Rockets
Projected line: 185 points | Houston by 4 points
Houston is entering this game on a horrible spot, as they will
be playing their 4th game in 5 days, having played yesterday in
Washington DC! This is a really tough spot for the Rockets, as after an
overtime win at home against Portland, they had to travel to Washington
DC, play there and then comeback to Houston and play in the following
day against Detroit, who has a much better spot for tonight, as they had
1 day off to rest. It was clear at the end of yesterday's game that the
Rockets were tired by allowing the Wizards to comeback into the match.
Lowry is extremely important to this team and with him tired, this is a
huge problem for Houston. He has played 41, 49 and 32 minutes on the
team's last 3 games, while Martin has played 39, 49 and 42 minutes!
It has been clear this season that the Rockets can't handle back to
back spots well (averaging off rates=103.1 def rates=110.5 on b2b games
this season). That's quite normal, as they are a completely perimeter
oriented team, who shoots just 28% of their shots at the rim and they
are also the team with less FT attempts per game in the league (20.8
FT/game!). With them being tired, the outside shooting struggles and
they have no plan B for their offense!
On the other side, Detroit is coming from a home loss against Golden
State. The Pistons have Monroe in great form and he will have a super
game tonight against the very poor interior defense of the Rockets. I
expect Detroit to take advantage of the Rockets' terrible spot for
tonight and use Monroe to pound Houston down low. I believe this game
will be much closer than the lines are saying and so, I'll take Detroit
tonight. Considering Houston's more than likely offensive struggles
tonight and their lack of energy, I expect this game to have a super
slow pace and average-at-best offensive efficiency, so I came up with a
projection line of 185 points, low enough for me to take the under for
this contest as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 188,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Detroit Pistons (+7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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