Tuesday, January 17, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/16: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Bobcats

NBA - 709 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 710 Charlotte Bobcats

Projected line: 197 points
As I've warned last Saturday, with the changes on the lineup, Charlotte is now playing at a much quicker pace and on their first game with the new line up, they showed a great offensive dynamic by shooting 50% FG and 7-13 3pts. The problem is that their defensive problems aren't gone and won't be gone. The backcourt is undersized, the center Byron Mullins is a terrible defender and Tyrus Thomas is undersized and lacks his athleticism from his prime. But today, against the Cavs, Charlotte has another chance of having a good offensive game. Cleveland doesn't have a lot of size in their interior game, so both Walker and DJ will penetrate and find holes in the Cavs defense, especially because both Parker and Irving aren't elite perimeter defensive players.

On the other side, Cleveland won't have problems in scoring today either. They will have a size edge on the backcourt and 31% of their shots are at the rim with 60% FG and this will be well used by them against the poor interior game defense of the Bobcats. Looking at this matchup, I clearly see both offenses getting the clear upperhand over both defenses and therefore, I came up with a projection of 197 points, high enough for me to take the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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